May 18, 2012

Saturday Stakes

El Gato Malo looks to remain undefeated in the Sham.

3/1 (SAT) G1 $1million Santa Anita Handicap (SA) 4up, 10f

1st- Monterey Jazz (5-1)

2nd- Champs Elysees (10-1)

3rd- Awesome Gem (4-1)

I feel very confident about Monterey Jazz winning this race. He has improved for three consecutive races and I expect to see him do so again. His front running style will be much to his benefit in this race. As far as 2nd and 3rd go your guess is as good as mine. This is a very wide open race, but like I said I like Monterey Jazz to win. If your going to bet only one race, this should be the one.

3/1 (SAT) G2 $350K Gulfstream Park Handicap (GP) 4up, 9.5f

1st- Leonnatus Anteas (3-1)

2nd- Kiss the Kid (2-1)

3rd- Fairbanks (8/5)

Not much value here, but that is how I think it will come in. Leonnatus Anteas was one of the top 2 year olds in Canada in 2006. Last year he was plagued by injuries, so I look for him to have a more successful 2008.

3/1 (SAT) G3 $200K Sham Stakes (SA) 3yo, 9f

1st- El Gato Malo (1-1)

2nd- Colonel John (9/5)

3rd- Coast Guard (5-1)

This is another race which presents no betting value. Whoever wins this race will probably emerge the top contender for the Santa Anita Derby. El Gato Malo is tough, but I certainly wouldn’t count Colonel John out. He is royally bred and I have only heard good things about him.

3/1 (SAT) NG $100K John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (TP) 3yo, 8.5f

1st- Your Round (3-1)

2nd-Briarwood Circle (4-1)

3rd- Cherokee Triangle (4-1)

Your Round looks tough in this one. He was green last time out and that may have cost him the race. Going 5 wide didn’t really help his cause either. He has faced several top horses such as Gio Ponti, Prussian, Nownownow, and Monba with a decent amount of success. I am also a big fan of his jockey, Victor Lebron. He is the best jockey at Turfway if you ask me.

Weekend Feature: Fountain of Youth Stakes

Court Vision will attempt to win 4 in a row in the FOY.

#1 Cool Coal Man- One of Nick Zito’s many runners here. The Mineshaft colt fired a bullet 47 1/5 H 4 furlong work on February 15. Anak Nakal bested him by 8 lengths two races back. I don’t see much changing this time around. We might see this one around later in the season but right now I don’t think he is good enough. I would try and stay away from this one if I were you.

#2 Golden Spikes- This Seeking the Gold colt was defeated by Cool Coal Man last time out in an allowance event. He was fourth two races back in the Hutcheson after running three wide. Last time out was his first try at a route event so I see more room for improvement for this colt than Cool Coal Man. I’m not the biggest fan of Javier “I’ll go four wide the whole way and hope I’m much the best” Castellano. I would use him on the bottom part of my exotics, but I don’t see him getting a piece in this one.

#3 Court Vision- Quite a layoff for this colt who hasn’t raced since November 24, when he captured the Remsen. In that race he uncorked a vicious run after trouble finding running room in the stretch. He made a similar stretch winning move in the Iroquois. The only thing that worries me for Court Vision is the pace scenario. Will he, and the many other stalker/closer types in this race get anything to run at?

#4 Kentucky Bear- Elvis Trujillo and Reade Baker will hook up for this race. Their Mr. Greeley colt broke his maiden very impressively first time out, capturing the one mile event in 1:36 4/5 over this same Gulfstream course. He earned a 93 beyer for that race. His inexperience worries me, but I think he is a possible winner in this race. I’m going to go out on a limb for this colt. Look out, he is for real.

#5 Z Humor- Bill Mott is bringing this one back on eight days rest. I’m no expert here, but I have to question that move. Garret Gomez hopping off for Court Vision is definitely a negative sign to me. While this is a good colt he has many things working against him today. I wouldn’t bet him, and I advise you to stay away as well. Look for him next time out as he will most likely be 100% and ready to fire.

#6 Ready Set- Michael Matz’s colt was fourth last time out after an attempt to stalk the pace against Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes. He appears to be a cut below this field as far as talent goes. I advise throwing him out altogether.

#7 Monba- Many people were very impressed by this colt last time out in the CashCall Futurity. He unleashed a vicious acceleration late in the race after escaping trouble in the lane to wind up fourth. I bet him to win in that race, so I obviously liked him. I’ve heard him hailed as a deep closer but I think the Easy Goer on his dam’s side means he has more tactical speed than people think. I love his second race in which he won an allowance event at Churchill Downs. He captured the one mile contest in 1:35 2/5 after going five wide. I like him back on the traditional dirt surface, look out for Monba.

#8 Anak Nakal- Nick Zito’s second entry in this race won the Kentucky Jockey Club last time out. He beat Blackberry Road and Racecar Rhapsody in that race, both whom are very good colts. Julien Leparoux will retain the mount. I’m not sure what happened two races back in the Nashua. He allowed Etched to escape by 6 lengths. Perhaps Etched is just that good? Any how I think this colt has the potential to be top contender come Kentucky Derby day but I don’t like him to win today.

#9 Elysium Fields- This El Prado colt broke his maiden last out, scoring by eight lengths at todays distance. That race was first time blinkers for him, so they really did the trick. He has been firing up the track since that race. I have to believe Barclay Tagg wouldn’t have this colt in here if he didn’t believe he could win. Elysium Fields is another wildcard today.

#10 Make the Point- Kiaran McLaughlin’s trainee will make his first attempt at a route race. After Kodiak Kowboy put him in his place the connections gave him some time off and it seems to have paid off. He scored an impressive allowance win off a five month layoff. In a race without much speed I like his chances to spring an upset.

#11 Adriano- This colt has only started on dirt once and it was a polytrack surface, therefore this will technically be his first start over a dirt course. I love his last race in which he man handled the competition to score by six lengths. The time was an impressive 1:39 3/5 for the 1 1/16 distance over the Gulfstream turf course. Due to his lack of dirt experience he is another wild card in todays race. He could get it done, but I don’t think he has enough early speed for today’s race.

1st- Monba (4-1)

2nd- Court Vision (3-1)

3rd- Kentucky Bear (10-1)

2/23 (SAT) G1 $350K Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes (Gulfstream) 4up, 11f T

1st- Einstein (6-1)

2nd- Shamdinan (4-1)

3rd- Zann (6-1)

2/23 (SAT) G2 $150K San Luis Obispo Handicap (Santa Anita) 4up, 12f T

1st- On The Acorn (7-2)

2nd- Rocket Legs (6-1)

3rd- Obrigado (6-1)

Saturday Stakes

This will be a slow weekend as far as stakes races go. Despite this I believe there are a few good value plays out there. My top pick this weekend is Johnny Eves. He is really running well at Santa Anita and I expect him to put in a very impressive performance. Dreaming of Anna also looks like a good bet. On another note, I suggest you check out http://www.roadtotheroses.com/. It’s a very good fantasy horse racing game. Good luck this weekend and bet Johnny Eves!!!

2/16 (SAT) G2 $150K Endeavour Stakes (Tampa Bay) 4up, f/m, 8.5f T

1st- Dreaming of Anna (3-1)

2nd- Lear’s Princess (5-2)

3rd- Meribel (7-2)

2/16 (SAT) G2 $150K San Carlos Handicap (Santa Anita) 4up, 7f

1st- Johnny Eves (3-1) I love this horse lately; I expect a big run from him.

2nd- Gregs Gold (5-2)

3rd- Circular Quay (4-1)

2/16 (SAT) NG $100K Hallandale Beach Stakes (Gulfstream) 3yo, 8.5f T

1st- Cowboy Cal (8/5) this one is bred to run all day on the turf.

2nd- Cannonball (4-1)

3rd- Chitoz (10-1)

2/16 (SAT) NG $200k Sam F Davis Stakes

1st- Smooth Air (9-2)

2nd- Z Humor (9-5)

3rd- Big Truck (6-1)

The Green Monkey retired

The Green Monkey was retired today. He proved an all important lesson to all those wanting to win the big one. In case you missed it, that lesson is that you cannot pay millions of dollars and receive in return a guaranteed champion. Hell, he couldn’t win a maiden race. I’m going to go ahead and predict they won’t recoup much in the shed either. Forestry colts are notorious for not being able to go past one mile. Why did they think this one would be different? I guess your going to have to ask them.

Even with this loss, I’m sure they can still sleep well at night. The connections (Sue Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor) of this colt are multi-millionaires. Between the three of them they have owned stars such as Rags to Riches, Circular Quay, Scat Daddy, Montjeu, Hurricane Run, Giants Causeway, and Thunder Gulch. The list goes on much further. Some of the current runners owned by these connections are Ravel, Majestic Warrior, and La Traviata.

As far as The Green Monkey goes I think he will draw some interest at stud given a reasonable price. He drew incredible notoriety due to his $16,000,000 purchase price. Maybe he will produce a runner who is actually worth that ludicrous amount. I’ll be watching for his first racers in 2011.

Weekend Ramblings

All in all I would say this weekend of racing was great! I ventured up to River Downs for the simulcast Saturday so I had a chance to watch Gulfstream and Fair Grounds which I usually can’t watch due to exclusivity agreements. I tried to stay away from Gulfstream because of the off track. I found myself battling early on because I was burned on a “tip”. With a starting balance of $20 I truly had my work cut out for me. In the end I found myself down to a single dollar. I played a $1 Pick 3. I used an undefeated horse in the first leg, Grasshopper, and Daytona. The ticket came through for me but only I only got back a measly $29.

I could’ve just played my selections in Grasshopper’s race straight for a $30 trifecta. Daytona was the easiest of winners in his race. That horse seems to be the real deal. I must admit I am still kind of hateful towards him because I had a sizeable amount to win on Proudinsky who he beat by ¾ length two races back. One thing I’ve learned is you can’t hold a grudge against a horse. Luckily I didn’t on Saturday. I also connected on a superfecta in Pyro’s race. Unfortunately for me I used Z Fortune on top in my trifectas.

My day ended when I put all my eggs in a superfecta with Student Council and Awesome Gem on top. I had all the horses that were in that $3,000+ superfecta but unfortunately for me not in the right order. I guess the trip to Japan just took too much out of Student Council. I wasn’t surprised to see Gorgie Boy win in the San Vicente. However, I believe he will have distance limitations in the future, but I’m not 100% on that as I haven’t fully evaluated his pedigree and races.

Today was the last day to place wagers in the first Kentucky Derby future pool. The best value as far as I could tell was El Gato Malo, whom last time I checked was around 19-1. I still think War Pass is the horse to beat but at the 5-1 or so which I saw he isn’t worth the risk just yet. I refrained from wagering this time around due a cash flow problem.

Have my picks been of any help to you? Maybe you just enjoy reading? If so, you can help me out with a small donation. If you would be so kind, please click the link on the right that says “Donate”. Anything would help. I thank you if you are able, if not I thank you still for reading. Until next time, Sayonara!

Saturday Stakes

I’ve been really busy lately and haven’t had time to give these races a good look. Take it for what its worth. I don’t really have a top pick, but I like Keep the Peace at 2-1 a little bit. I’m off to the track, good luck and may all your tickets cash!

Santa Maria Handicap

1st- Dawn after Dawn (8-1)

2nd- Tough Tiz’s Sis (7-5)

3rd- Sweet Belle (7/2)

Forward Gal Stakes

1st- Keep the Peace (2-1)

2nd- Melissa Jo (4-1)

3rd- Bsharpsonata (3-1)

San Antonio Handicap

1st- Student Council (7-2)

2nd- Awesome Gem (9-2)

3rd- Zappa (6-1)

Fair Grounds Handicap

1st- Daytona (7-2)

2nd- Better Talk Now (3-1)

3rd- Silverfoot (12-1)

Mineshaft Handicap

1st- Grasshopper (5-2)

2nd- Silver Lord (9/2)

3rd- Magna Graduate (2-1)

Silverbulletday Stakes

1st- Proud Spell (7-2)

2nd- Indian Blessing (4-5)

3rd- Jolie The Cat (5-1)

Risen Star Stakes

1st- Z Fortune (7-2)

2nd- Signature Move (6-1)

3rd- Pyro (3-1)

HorseRacingPark.com


This year is shaping up to be a great one at HorseRacingPark.Com or HRP for short. If you haven’t checked it out yet, I encourage you to do so. I’ve been a member for about a year and half now and it is great entertainment. The game parallels real life horse racing to a tee. You can play for real cash, or for free. I encourage you to try out the free part of the game first while you are getting a handle on things. The purses at the pay tracks are on a 1:1000 scale. So for instance HRP holds the $5,000 Breeders Cup Classic in place of the $5,000,000 Breeders Cup Classic.

HRP has something for everyone. If you love to race claimers you can do so. If your goal is to train a Kentucky Derby winner than have at it, mind you it won’t be easy just as in real life. Fans who are fond of the breeding aspect of the game will also love HRP. The players of the game spend hours masterful matching up their mares with sires and hoping for the next “Timepiece” whom is among the best bred horses in the game.

Those on a small budget can succeed, and this is something I can attest to. In the year and a half I’ve been playing I’ve probably spent $250. That may sound like a bit of money, but spanned out over a year and half it is about $13 a month. I also forgot to mention I’ve withdrawn well over that due to auction sales. In my estimation I’d say I’ve probably netted about $200. True racing fans are going to love this game and the realism it brings.

If you sign up through my blog by clicking any of the links in this article, you will get 5 free horse vouchers instead of the normal 2. What are you waiting for?!

HorseRacingPark.com

Miscellaneous Ramblings

War Pass is the bet in the Kentucky Derby!

I’d just like to make a quick point before I get on to the subject of this post. I really can’t believe all of these “expert” picks I have seen for the Kentucky Derby. I’m not going to say any names but Pyro seems to be the consensus pick at the moment. While I respect Pyro, War Pass is clearly the better horse at this point. He dictates the race as soon as it starts and has yet to show an ounce of vulnerability. People will point to his sire Cherokee Run being a champion sprinter, but he was on the Triple Crown trail prior to that. I absolutely love War Pass’s chances in this year’s Kentucky Derby and I encourage you to bet him at 12-1 in the future book.

My biggest gripe about horse racing at the moment is exclusivity. I can’t stand the fact that I cannot turn on TVG and watch Gulfstream and Fair Grounds. These are both top notch tracks that I have been fortunate enough to have a bit of success as far as handicapping goes. This really limits me on days when races such as the Donn Handicap or the Risen Star Stakes are going.

The competition between HRTV and TVG is intense. Unfortunately this is hurting the horse player. During a time when horse racing desperately needs fan this is the last thing I want to see. More exposure means more fans and if people can’t watch races they aren’t likely to become fans. Just being able to watch isn’t the only problem. Wagering is what drives the game and if you want to bet on Gulfstream or Fair Grounds you can only do so with Twin Spires. They believe that they are helping themselves by doing this, but in reality they are driving people away from the game in turn hurting their business in the long run.

This has really been bugging me and I will try and cover it more in depth soon. Please check back for selections in this week’s stakes races. One of these races will be the Risen Star which I won’t be able to watch unless I go to the track because of the reasons stated above. I haven’t given it the best of looks yet but it is shaping up to be a very good race.