Coming To a Track Near You: Curlin vs Big Brown

Curlin was awfully impressive Saturday in Dubai. He was what I would call the easiest of winners. Albarado rode him beautifully and they captured the race in a very fast 2:00.15 and probably could’ve gone faster. I have my doubts about whether the champion will be returning to the United States. I expect him to be sold for a very hefty sum. I can only hope that I am wrong.

If Curlin does in fact return to the U.S. his greatest challenger may have risen on the same day he captured his biggest race. I’m sure you know who I’m referring to. Big Brown was about as impressive as can be in capturing the Florida Derby. He did what had never been done by winning from the 12 hole going 1 1/8. Not only did Big Brown win but he just missed the track record. Imagine if the horse had broke from the 6 hole!

I would like to stress that what I am about to say is very premature. Big Brown could be the one. You know the one I’m talking about. The one we have all been waiting for since 1978. He could be that horse. I’m not willing to say he is yet, but his performance was awe inspiring. He is the type of horse you have to be to win the Triple Crown. The fractions he set and the fact that he was still going away are unbelievable. I’ve got my fingers crossed.

Still yet he has one horse that will be his biggest challenge. No, I’m not talking about Pyro. War Pass has the kind of speed that can make you gasp. He showed he wasn’t invincible in the Tampa Bay Derby, but you have to remember how good this horse STILL is. I’m going to be watching him very closely next weekend in the Wood Memorial. His performance may decide whether or not Big Brown will have his way with things.

War Pass IS NOT finished!

The Tampa Bay Derby provided quite a shocker on Saturday. Previously undefeated, but still champion War Pass didn’t fire and struggled to finish the race. My father suggested something was amiss when Nick Zito declined an interview with TVG prior to the race. Perhaps he knew War Pass wasn’t ready? While I consider Zito one of the best around, I must question the wisdom of bringing the 2 year old champion back in an allowance. This suggests to me that he wasn’t ready to throw him to the wolves, but had no choice Saturday. I hope I’m wrong about this because I am HUGE fan of War Pass.

We should consider a few things about the race. For starters I have heard from a few people that some horses don’t handle Tampa Bay Downs the first time they race over it. Another factor is that he was pinched at the break. This prevented him from running to the front and pouring it. Nick Zito was reported on NTRA.com saying that he sustained some cuts to his left leg. I have some sneaking suspicions that War Pass may have bled. Regardless, I believe and hope he will be fine and give ‘em hell when the first Saturday in May arrives!

On a brighter note I was very impressed by Sierra Sunset in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. He raced three wide and ended up capturing the race by 3 lengths while earning a Beyer number of 99. He won’t have it easy in the Arkansas Derby when he races rival Denis of Cork for the second time. Denis of Cork defeated Sierra Sunset in the Southwest Stakes. The latter has obviously improved since then so it will be quite a race.

I’ll be heading up to Turfway Park this Saturday for the Grade 2 Lanes End Stakes. Last year’s edition produced Hard Spun the second place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, and Sedgefield the fifth place finisher. This will be my first time viewing the Lanes End live. If it’s as good as the Kentucky Cup I’m going to have a blast. I’ll try and take a camera and get some good pictures to post here. Check back for more, and as always thanks for reading!

War Pass set to run; Dreaming of Anna vs Lear’s Princess (Round 2)

3/15 (SAT) G2 $200K San Felipe S. (SA) 3yo, 8.5f

This race should be a fun one. If Georgie Boy can win he will further solidify his chances of being in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. He should go off the favorite, but he isn’t without competition in this one. Bob Black Jack, the world record holder at 6 furlongs will be making his first start past 7 furlongs. I expect him to struggle, but he may be able to air mail this field on the front end.

Go For Cover is another interesting horse. He broke his maiden first time out in 1:01 4/5 for 5 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita. He came back in an optional claiming event and closed for third only losing by a 1 ¾ lengths. I like his sire Elusive Quality and you may be able to catch him at a price. Indian Sun is another horse who could run a big race. He has fired a bullet 46 1/5 4 furlong work since winning by a nose in an allowance race. He will be coming late and if someone goes with Bob Black Jack early he should be there.

1^st- Indian Sun

2^nd- Go For Cover

3^rd- Georgie Boy

3/15 (SAT) G2 $300K Rebel S. (OAK) 3yo, 8.5f

Anak Nakal didn’t respond last time out racing for the first time since November. Put a line through that race and he looks pretty good. He should be eligible to improve making his second start since the lay off. I suggest that you use him on top. Sierra Sunset held on for second after stalking a brutal pace in the Southwest. He should have a slower pace this time, thusly improving his chances. Look for Golden Yank third.

1^st- Anak Nakal

2^nd- Sierra Sunset

3^rd- Golden Yank

3/15 (SAT) G3 $150K Skip Away S. (GP) 4up, 9f

Skip Away is one of the first horses I can remember watching. That grey champion sure could run. I’d say Frost Giant has the best chance of winning this one. I like how he has improved since a significant lay off. He could run huge at 6-1. Gottcha Gold should be able to run on the front end by himself. He is always deadly when he gets the early lead. Better Than Bonds should compete for third.

1^st- Frost Giant (6-1)

2^nd- Gottcha Gold (5-2)

3^rd- Better Than Bonds (4-1)

3/15 (SAT) G3 $175K Hillsborough S. (TAM) 4up, f/m, 9f T

Dreaming of Anna and Lear’s Princess put on quite a show last time out. I remember because I selected the trifecta cold in that race. I’m going to use Dreaming of Anna first and Lear’s Princess second again. I saw Anna win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies in person and have been an avid fan of her ever since. Lear’s Princess is almost always game so you should definitely box these two.

1^st- Dreaming of Anna (8/5)

2^nd- Lear’s Princess (7/5)

3^rd- Maddy’s Heart (8-1)

3/15 (SAT) G3 $300K Tampa Bay Derby (TAM) 3yo, 8.5f

Repeat after me: War Pass is the best horse in the country-period. Okay good, I think you have a better understanding now. This colt is the best thing since sliced bread and barring a catastrophic break down there is NO WAY he loses this race. I’ve been a War Pass fan since his first start and I am rooting for him to win the Kentucky Derby. Nick Zito deserves one!

1^st- War Pass (2/5)

2^nd- Atoned (5-1)

3^rd- Big Truck (9/2)

Best Bet: Frost Giant

Stakes Galore!

3/8 (SAT) G1 $300K Santa Anita Oaks (SA) 3yo, f, 8.5f

1^st- Briecat

2^nd- Golden Doc A

3^rd- Lovely Isle

This will be a big step up in class for my top selection Briecat. She is 2 for 2 and if Vladimir Cerin believes she can win than that’s enough reason for me. Golden Doc A missed Indian Blessing by a head two races back, so she will certainly be contentious. Lovely Isle will be a pace factor, but I don’t think she will be able to hold on for the win.

3/8 (SAT) G2 $200K Richter Scale Sprint Handicap (GP) 4up, 7f

1^st- Commentator (8/5)

2^nd- Chatain (3-1)

3^rd- King of the Roxy (4-1)

As you can see there is little to no value in this race. I really don’t see Commentator losing, but it is a horse race after all. Chatain hasn’t really proven to me that he can beat top quality horses yet. I’m sold if he can take down Commentator. King of the Roxy ran well off of a layoff to win the Hutcheson at this distance last year, so I like him third.

3/8 (SAT) G2 $500K Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap (FG) 4up, 9f T

1^st- Daytona (3-1)

2^nd-Elusive Fort (8-1)

3^rd- Proudinsky (7/2)

It looks like Daytona will be lone speed once again. He is a really good horse, but I wonder how things will work out when someone pushes him up front. Daytona already has a win over this surface and is 3 for 3 at this distance. I had $100 to win on Proudinsky last out, so I’m not too happy with him. Elusive Fort is an Irish horse who was gaining well last time out so the added distance should help his chances.

3/8 (SAT) G2 $500K New Orleans Handicap (FG) 4up, 9f

1^st- Brass Hat (9/2)

2^nd- Grasshopper (2-1)

3^rd- Silver Lord (5-1)

Brass Hat has always been a solid horse. He ran well in the Donn only losing by 3 lengths to Spring At Last. Prior to that race, he was second in the Clark after going 5 wide. I believe today will be his day. If Brass Hat doesn’t win, it will almost certainly be Grasshopper. I would stay away from Circular Quay in this race; he isn’t the horse he used to be.

3/8 (SAT) G2 $600K Louisiana Derby (FG) 3yo, 8.5f

1^st- J Be K (12-1)

2^nd- Pyro (7/5)

3^rd- Take Of Ekati (7/2)

Steve Asmussen may have another Curlin on his hands with J Be K. He broke the track record going 5 ½ furlongs at Saratoga in his first start. He earned a 99 beyer for that race. This horse has the looks of a superstar in the making. Since then he has won an allowance in which drew off with ease. He looks very nice but he is going to have to prove he is as good as I think he is on the track. Pyro is always tough and will be kicking home with his late run as usual. If he runs back to his last race this may be a blow out. Tale Of Ekati will be making his first outing since finishing fourth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

3/8 (SAT) G3 $150K El Camino Real Derby (BM) 3yo, 8.5f

1^st- Coast Guard

2^nd- Master Daniel

3^rd- Nikki’sgoldensteed

We have quite a wide open event here in what will be California’s only Kentucky Derby prep on a traditional dirt surface. I like Coast Guard to win off of his second place performance in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Master Daniel fired the track up last time out breaking his maiden going 6 furlongs in 1:08 3/5 at Golden Gate. Nikki’sgoldensteed won for fun in the Turf Paradise Derby last time out. Any of these three can win.

3/8 (SAT) G3 $250K Gotham Stakes (AQU) 3yo, 8.5f

1^st- Texas Wildcatter

2^nd- Giant Moon

3^rd- Ling Ling Qi

I’m predicting a hot pace in this one. If I’m right things will set up for Texas Wildcatter. The undefeated Giant Moon should also be around late. Ken McPeek’s Ling Ling Qi should excel stretching past a mile for the first time.