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Kentucky Derby Top 5

April 28, 2008 By Leave a Comment

Barbaro captures the Kentucky Derby in 2006.

The biggest day in horse racing is drawing nigh as ever second passes. I hope you’ve done your homework, but if not I’m here for you. I’ve narrowed my list down to 5 horses. As the works keep coming in, and once I analyze the form, my picks are likely to change. Make sure you check back for the latest information.

Kentucky Derby Top 5

1) Big Brown- I love the last work for this guy in which he breezed 5 furlongs in an easy 58 3/5 seconds. I like his chances in the Kentucky Derby. His most valuable tool will be his tactical speed, mark my words. This is what sets him apart from other horses like him in the past. He is without a doubt the horse to beat.

2) Colonel John- Hard to find anything wrong with this son of Tiznow. He exploded past the competition in the Santa Anita Derby, and looks like he can run all day. Dirt should be a non issue according to trainer Eoin Harty, because he zipped over Churchill Downs track in 57 4/5 for 5 furlongs. He also galloped out very well. There is plenty to like about this one.

3) Pyro- Despite his poor finish in the Bluegrass its hard to forget about this guy. His wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby were very impressive. Distance is no longer a worry from my viewpoint, considering his explosive style. Let’s not forgot that this one was training with Curlin earlier in his career. Expect Asmussen to have this horse ready, no excuses if he loses.

4) Adriano- I’m liking Edgar Prado’s mount more as time goes on. I can remember leaving Turfway Park thinking that this race would have little impact on the Kentucky Derby. Time changes all things, including opinions. Prado was quoted as saying this horse’s acceleration reminds him of Barbaro. If he right, he could accelerate right into the winners circle.

5) Monba- Showed an amazing turn of foot in the Cash Call Futurity when he accelerated from the back of the pack to capture fourth. I loved the stalking trip he showed in the Bluegrass, and Ramon Dominguez getting the mount is all the more encouraging. Watch out for this son of Maria’s Mon. Maybe Pletcher can finally get his Derby win?

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With:

I’d Rather Be Lucky Than Good

April 25, 2008 By Leave a Comment

Brown Bomber sets a nice quarter, wrapping up in 1:01 B

Could it be luck? I created a new horse on HRP this week. Thinking of my current choice for the Kentucky Derby, I decided to name him Brown Bomber. The name was also inspired by the late but great Joe Louis. I worked the horse the first time, and he ran lights out. Could it be luck, that the horse inspired partially by Big Brown looks good thus far? It’s definitely luck, but that brings me to another point. Luck will play a huge role in the Kentucky Derby.

It seems like yesterday that I started this blog. Part of my inspiration was my enthusiasm for the Kentucky Derby. If you recall, I ended up selecting Hard Spun (10-1) last year, and he finished second. I also noted three horses who could beat him. Sure enough, I was right about that and one of my three (Street Sense) passed him in the stretch. I’m a little bitter about the race though. Street Sense had one of the luckiest trips I have seen in my life. The rail opened up countless times for him. If it doesn’t open up just one of those times he doesn’t get the win. But LUCK was on his side that day, and he got the roses. I’m not complaining though. Luck is a legitimate factor in a race like this.

Big Brown shouldn’t need that kind of luck. Judging from his small amount of experience, he has a large amount of tactical speed. He can lay right off the pace, or say catch me if you can on the lead. I personally would opt for the second strategy. It would allow him to avoid traffic and for the most part dictate the race. Truly great horses go up front and just keep going.

Make sure you check back next week. I will have a deep analysis of the Kentucky Derby field, along with selections and the bets I will be making. This next week will be pretty grueling in anticipation of the big one. I know I can’t wait, and I’m sure you cant either. See you there, and make sure you remember this. What can Big Brown do for you?

Filed Under: Horse Racing Information Tagged With:

Bluegrass Stakes, Arkansas Derby+More

April 11, 2008 By Leave a Comment

4/12 (SAT) Gr 1 Blue Grass S. – KEE

I haven’t seen a race with so many live long shots in a very long time. Monba, Medjool, Kentucky Bear, Halo Najib, and Miner’s Claim are all capable of winning. They are all 15-1 or higher on the morning line. Pyro, the even money morning line favorite looks daunting but he is beatable. That being said I’m going bombs away.

1st- Kentucky Bear (50-1)
2nd- Pyro (1-1)
3rd- Monba (15-1)

4/12 (SAT) Gr 2 Arkansas Derby – OP

I’m a bit disappointed at the lack of depth this years edition of the Arkansas Derby presents. I’m kind of surprised some of the horses in the Bluegrass didn’t opt for this event. Monba who is 15-1 in the Bluegrass would be more like 4-1 in this race. I doubt a serious derby contender will come out of this one.

1st- Liberty Bull (6-1)
2nd- My Pal Charlie (12-1)
3rd- Golden Yank (15-1)

4/12 (SAT) Gr 2 Commonwealth S.- KEE

1st- Forefathers (4-1)
2nd- Buffalo Man (8-1)
3rd- Xchanger (4-1)

4/12 (SAT) Gr 3 Holy Bull S.- GP

1st- Hey Byrn (8/5)
2nd- Famous Patriot (3-1)
3rd- Dream Meastro (5-1)

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping