I’d Rather Be Lucky Than Good
April 25, 2008
Could it be luck? I created a new horse on HRP this week. Thinking of my current choice for the Kentucky Derby, I decided to name him Brown Bomber. The name was also inspired by the late but great Joe Louis. I worked the horse the first time, and he ran lights out. Could it be luck, that the horse inspired partially by Big Brown looks good thus far? It’s definitely luck, but that brings me to another point. Luck will play a huge role in the Kentucky Derby.
It seems like yesterday that I started this blog. Part of my inspiration was my enthusiasm for the Kentucky Derby. If you recall, I ended up selecting Hard Spun (10-1) last year, and he finished second. I also noted three horses who could beat him. Sure enough, I was right about that and one of my three (Street Sense) passed him in the stretch. I’m a little bitter about the race though. Street Sense had one of the luckiest trips I have seen in my life. The rail opened up countless times for him. If it doesn’t open up just one of those times he doesn’t get the win. But LUCK was on his side that day, and he got the roses. I’m not complaining though. Luck is a legitimate factor in a race like this.
Big Brown shouldn’t need that kind of luck. Judging from his small amount of experience, he has a large amount of tactical speed. He can lay right off the pace, or say catch me if you can on the lead. I personally would opt for the second strategy. It would allow him to avoid traffic and for the most part dictate the race. Truly great horses go up front and just keep going.
Make sure you check back next week. I will have a deep analysis of the Kentucky Derby field, along with selections and the bets I will be making. This next week will be pretty grueling in anticipation of the big one. I know I can’t wait, and I’m sure you cant either. See you there, and make sure you remember this. What can Big Brown do for you?