Weekend Stakes
May 31, 2008
Grade 2 Ohio Derby
This one appears to be a two horse race on paper. Z Fortune and Smooth Air are going to contend for the win in this race. I like Smooth Air based on how well he ran in the Florida Derby. He was second to Big Brown, and the third place finisher was far behind him. I believe Z Fortune is probably a miler. I’ll take Stolen Chevy for second due to his front running style. Z Fortune will probably stumble in for third.
1st- Smooth Air
2nd- Stolen Chevy
3rd- Z Fortune
Grade 2 Nassau Stakes
Quite a competitive race here. I think Arravale will get back in the saddle in this race. She hasn’t won in while, but she has been close in terms of lengths from the winner. Today will be her day. Local champ Sealy Hill will be right there for second. Quiet Jungle for third.
1st- Arravale
2nd- Sealy Hill
3rd- Quiet Jungle
Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes
Ronny Werner will have Secret Gypsy back in this spot. She ran respectable off of the layoff and I expect her to improve for the win today. Allina bounced off of her Fantasy run last out and should rebound here for second. Keep The Peace for third.
1st- Secret Gypsy
2nd- Allina
3rd- Keep The Peace
Make sure to keep checking back. I haven’t had much time to update lately because of finals coming up. After the Belmont I should be back to posting everyday. On a lighter note, I gave the trifecta out straight in the Shoemaker. I hope you had it. Also I gave out Divine Park last week. I cashed for $505 on that race. Good luck, and keep coming back.
Take Divine Park to the bank in the Met Mile!
May 25, 2008
5/26 (MON) G1 Met Mile - BEL
#1 Z Humor- Coming off a 14th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He doesn’t appear to be nearly fast enough to compete with his older foes.
#1A Premium Wine- The entry appears better here. He is closing very well going 7 furlongs so the extra furlong should benefit him. He just missed by ¾ of a length in the Carter Handicap. Probably not good enough to win this, but definitely a good looking horse.
#2 Lord Snowdon- 4th last out in the Carter Handicap. Not good enough to win here, but could be useful in the exotics; mixed feelings.
#3 Global Feeling- Game finish in his first run in the USA. Yet another horse who is likely outclassed. I wouldn’t use him, except for 4th in superfectas and maybe 3rd in trifectas if your feeling bold.
#4 Divine Park- From the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin comes the rock star of the race. I absolutely love this horse in this race. He was phenomenal last out nearly breaking the track record for a mile and beating favorite Grasshopper by 5 lengths. He was 4 wide in that race, and just blew by the competition. Take this one to the bank; Divine Park in the Met Mile.
#5 First Defence- Solid 4 year old got there for my pick 3 last time out and for that I am grateful; This race may be a bit too much to ask for his second race since September. Despite that, I would use him underneath in the exotics.
#6 Kiss The Kid- Former turf runner is running respectable on the dirt; Use him underneath, but I highly doubt he takes this one down.
#7 Council Member- Toss this one.
#8 Commentator- This horse will be Divine Park’s main threat. He is the morning line favorite at 6/5 compared to Divine Park’s 5/2 billing. Zito says he is ready to run, but knowing this gelding, a bounce has to be looming somewhere on the horizon. I hope its in this race.
1st- Divine Park
2nd- Premium Wine/ Z Humor (1 and 1A)
3rd- First Defence
Plays
WIN on Divine Park
$1 Trifecta Divine Park/ Premium Wine, First Defence/ ALL
$20 Exacta Divine Park/ Premium Wine, First Defence,
Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile Preview
May 24, 2008
5/26 (MON) G1 Shoemaker Mile S.- HOL
This year’s edition of the Shoemaker Mile is worthy of its Grade 1 billing. Stars such as Perfect Drift, Ever A Friend, and Daytona will be looking to take down this $250,000 purse. Perfect Drift returns from a 10 month layoff, while Daytona is fresh off a win in the Arcadia. Ever a Friend won the Frank Kilroe Mile last out, and will try to take this race just as Kip Deville did last year. Let’s take a look at the contenders and try and find the winner.
#1 Perfect Drift- This 9 year old gelding is certainly battled tested and a seasoned vet of the racing circuit. The Shoemaker is certainly an ambitious spot for a comeback. He is 8-2-1-0 on the turf in his long career, so he has showed some ability. He is a wild card in this race, but I would throw him out off of the 10 month layoff.
#2 Mast Track- Robert Frankel trainee is fresh off an a allowance win. Maybe Frankel knows something we don’t but Mast Track certainly seems outclassed in this spot.
#3 Ever A Friend- I like the name on this one. His last win in the Kilroe Mile was against some of the best in the division, and he drew clear by 3 lengths. Mike Mitchell certainly has him cranking! The connections claimed in December for 62k. Quite a claim so far. I like him to run second.
#4 Get Funky- This one is racing second off of the layoff and is winless in 4 starts at the distance. He was second in this race last year, and trainer John Sadler believes he fits here. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won, but I’m not expecting it.
#5 Notional- Winner of the 2007 Risen Star just hasn’t been the same as a 4 year old. His turf efforts have been lackluster and I see no reason to expect him to improve. I have immense respect for Doug O’Neil, but 6th in a state bred stakes last out wont cut it in this Grade 1.
#6 Thousand Words- Poor guy ran into a buzz saw last out against Elite Squadron. He has had some success at this distance, including a nice optional claimer win at this past Santa Anita meet. This one could surprise, but I’m going to look elsewhere.
#7 Hyperbaric- Julio Canani’s lightly raced 5 year old gelding ran a monster last out, and just missed Daytona. Bejarano gets the mount which is definitely a bonus. He is riding lights out right now. He has been very good at this distance posting a 3-2-1-0 record. Hyperbaric could get it done here; respect.
#8 Daytona- Speed to the lead for this one. I wonder why Mike Smith lost the mount? Alex Solis is up for the 3rd consecutive race. He will have to withstand pressure from Ever A Friend and Hyperbaric, but could definitely get it done. Keep an eye open for Daytona, the likely winner of the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile!
1st- Daytona
2nd- Ever a Friend
3rd- Hyperbaric
Plays:
$1 Trifecta Daytona/ Ever A Friend, Hyperbaric/ALL
WIN on Daytona
Thursday at the Track
May 23, 2008
Did anyone see Songtress yesterday? The Asmussen filly won at first asking in the 9th race at Churchill Downs. She had surprisingly good odds at 7/2 and she won quite easily. I had a pick 3 with some buddies to her and we ended up sharing $200. I was running low on cash, so I bet $10 to place on the filly. She was the likely winner, but I didn’t want to end up empty handed. I got back $25 for my $10 investment in that race. Songtress got my day rolling, and I have added her to my horse watch. I encourage you to do so as well.
I was alive in the last leg of the late Pick 4 at Hollywood. The first leg winner was $12.40 and he beat a 4/5 favorite, and the second winner paid $10.80. The third winner, was a favorite. I had my hopes up and I was feeling pretty lucky. I was alive to the 4 and 6 for 268 and 813 respectively in the last leg. Unfortunately for me, the 6 didn’t run a step and the 4 was second. It was only an $8 ticket, but hey that’s why they call it gambling!
For the day I ended up breaking even after you add on all the ATM fees and food I bought. Kind of ironic really, that I would end up with EXACTLY what I left the house with. I probably would have had a good day had a few things gone my way. I had a horse at Belmont who didn’t move when they opened the gate. I might as well have flushed my money down the toilet. I’m going to give it another shot over the weekend, so check back here for some picks!
Rankings
May 21, 2008
I’ve released my version of the “Watchmaker Watch”! You can find it by clicking on “Rankings” which is located on the red strip below the logo. I’d love to hear your thoughts on the list.
Here are my rankings of the Older Male Division:
- Curlin- This colt is in a class of his own. Connections are pointing to the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs.
- Divine Park- Amazing colt is coming into his own. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin says the Metropolitan Mile is likely his next start.
- Go Between- Big win in the SunShine Millions Classic earlier this year. Followed that up with a second in the Santa Anita Handicap, and the Ben Ali Stakes.
- Commentator- Lightly raced 7 year old gelding is still rolling. The Nick Zito trainee is 2 for 2 this year including a monstrous romp in an allowance company at Gulfstream Park, and a Grade II win.
- Diamond Stripes
- AP Arrow
- Tiago
- Student Council
- Heatseeker
- Well Armed
Make sure to check the rest out!
The Future
May 19, 2008
You may have noticed I have changed the theme of Gradedstakes.com since last week. I believe the new theme is better looking, and more flexible. However, I’m still figuring things out and it isn’t easy. I’ve got a friend helping me work it out, so expect a more full experience by next week.
I’ve got many things planned for this summer that most of you are going to like. I’m going to try and do more interviews with trainers, jockeys, and other relevant industry insiders. I’m also looking to create more history type articles such as “Almost Immortal I+II”. You can also look out for more ranking articles like “Top 5 Jockeys”. I’m also improving my handicapping skills by reading books such as “Bet with the Best” which is written by several of the nations top handicappers. Expect selections that are even better then the ones you are already getting! I’m also thinking of recording myself giving the picks, and uploading the video.
As far as Gradedstakes.com as a community goes, I am thinking about added a message board. I encourage everyone to comment, but this would allow for a better discussion between everyone. You can also expect a “poll” in the near future. The last addition I would like to mention would be handicapping contests. In the near future, I would like to begin have handicapping contests for small prizes, and small amounts of cash. Make you sure you check back so you test your skills against mine!
That’s about all I have to say for now. As always I thank you for reading. Make sure to keep checking back, and if you have any suggestions, or comments please email them to me at loyaluntildeath@yahoo.com. I’ll close with the following. Curlin forever, Big Brown never!
Big Bad Brown!
May 18, 2008
I don’t know if Big Brown could’ve won the Preakness with any more ease then he did. Coming down the stretch it looked like he was jogging. Nobody could get near this horse once he really started running. Albeit, the field was poor, and he should have won convincingly. I was glad to see Kent Desormeaux gear Big Brown down. He gave the horse a very heady ride.
The Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be Big Brown’s toughest challenge. Denis of Cork, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby will be back. He is a closer with a monster kick and will be looking to run down the pace. Casino Drive, winner of the Peter Pan Stakes will be Big Brown’s main challenger. The colt hails from Japan and is undefeated in two starts. He is ¾ brother to last years winner, Rags to Riches. Casino Drive is also ½ to the 2006 winner, Jazil.
Will Big Brown win the Triple Crown? I can’t say yes for sure. I just finished watching Smarty Jones win the Preakness in 2004 and he won easier and against a better field. I hope Big Brown can get it done. 30 years has certainly been long enough. Big Brown should be fresh and ready to go for the Belmont Stakes. While im hardly going out a limb here, I will make my prediction. The time has come. Big Brown will wear the crown.
I found an interesting article about trainer Rick Dutrow. Click here to check it out!
Preakness Selections
May 16, 2008
This Preakness will be interesting for one big reason. You guessed it, Big Brown. My article has been featured on http://www.bettorsworld.com/.Unfortunately I can’t post it on here, but click here to check it out!
1st- Big Brown
2nd- Kentucky Bear
3rd- Racecar Rhapsody
The Regular Guy
May 13, 2008
I had the pleasure of appearing on the “The Regular Guy” with John Engelhart today. I really enjoyed my first time on the camera. My only regret, is not picking many price horses. I had two winners ($3.80, $4.80), and in the last race I had the exacta backwards for $31, so hopefully someone boxed it. I was a bit nervous the night before but some good advice from TVG’s Nick Hines help to put me at ease. John was also very helpful. I have him to thank for getting my first picture in the winners circle, with a horse who just so happened to be my first winner on TV (TK’s Turn).
I met some interesting people including trainers George S. Bush, and Thomas Drury, along with jockeys Justin Vitek and Weldon Cloninger. Justin Vitek was a particularly interesting person. I can remember watching him ride as a little boy, and always counted him among the better jockeys at River Downs. Justin has been diagnosed with acute myelogenous leukemia, and anything you could do to help him out would be greatly appreciated! Below is an address where you can send any donations.
The Justin Vitek Fund
c/o JoLynn Johnston
5394 Taylor Mill Road, Taylor Mill, KY 41015
Top 5 Active Jockeys
May 12, 2008
The United States racing circuits have seen many riders come and go. Most of these riders serve a niche at a smaller track such as River Downs. These jockeys are not at the top of the food chain, but they are more than capable. Tracks such as River Downs, serve as the training grounds for the future stars of the game. Rafael Bejarano got his start at River Downs, while Robby Albarado and Kent Desormeaux got their’s at Evangeline Downs. They are now at the top of the food chain. Let’s take a look at that top sector of jockey’s and I’ll give you my opinion on who is the best. Granted, they are separated by very little.
#1 Garrett Gomez- In 2007 Gomez broke Jerry Bailey’s record for stakes wins in a single year. I would call him the “now” jockey, but hell Garrett Gomez always rides this well. Some jockeys sadly are unable to overcome substance abuse, but this was not the case for Gomez. He decided what was important and changed his lifestyle after a substance abuse problem. Congratulations on that Garrett! In 2007 Garrett Gomez won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey. Some of Garrett Gomez’s top wins and mounts in 2007 include: Rags to Riches (G1 Kentucky Oaks, G1 Las Virgenes, G1 Santa Anita Oaks), Any Given Saturday (G1 Haskell Invitational, G2 Dwyer, G2 Brooklyn H), Spring at Last (Godolphin Mile), Shakespeare (G1 Woodbine Mile), Indian Blessing (G1 Frizette, G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies).
#2 John R. Velazquez- One of the first things I can remember about horse racing is people talking about the “Pletcher-Velazquez” angle. I quickly learned why. When these two heavyweights teamed up the results could be epic. The pair teamed up to win their first Triple Crown race in 2007 with the phenomenal filly Rags to Riches. Velazquez has seven Breeders Cup wins, his most recent being with English Channel in 2007 (Another Pletcher horse). In 2005 he won the Dubai World on Roses in May. He has won the Eclipse Award for outstanding jockey twice, in 2004 and 2005. Top mounts in 2007 include: Octave (G1 Mother Goose, G1 Coaching Club American Oaks); Lawyer Ron (G1 Whitney, G1 Woodward), English Channel (G1 United Nations, G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic), Cotton Blossom (G1 Acorn, Florida Oaks).
#3 Mike Smith- I could hardly believe what I saw when researching Mike Smith. The guy has won 10 Breeders Cup races! Some of his biggest Breeders Cup winners were Cherokee Run in the 1994 Breeders Cup Sprint, and Skip Away in the 1997 Breeders Cup Classic. In 1993 and 1994 Smith won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding jockey, and was the top money earner. His biggest win came in the 2005 Kentucky Derby with 50-1 long shot Giacomo. Smith said that although he wasn’t expecting the win, he knew Giacomo had it in him. His top mount in 2007 was Tiago who won the Santa Anita Derby, Swaps, and Goodwood. He also rode Cry and Catch Me to victory in the Oak Leaf.
#4 Rafeal Bejarano- “Rafi” fell in love with horse racing in his native Peru, where he attended riding school, and won the apprentice title at a local track. Bejarano came to the U.S. in 2002 with the help of Dante Zanelli Sr. and quickly took over my hometown track River Downs. On March 13, 2004 he won a track record 7 races at Turfway Park, then followed that up with 5 more wins the next day. He ended 2004 with the most wins from any jockey, at 455. In 2005 he won riding titles at Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Ellis Park, and Turfway Park, while finishing 4th in earnings that year. On only his second visit to Santa Anita he won 6 races on the card. He has relocated to California so he can ride first call for the great Bobby Frankel. Some of Bejarano’s marquee wins in his short career are the 2005 Filly & Mare Turf with Intercontinental, and the 2007 Breeders Cup Distaff with Ginger Punch.
#5 Kent Desormeaux- This jockey has traveled the world. He became the first foreign jockey to win a Japanese Classic. The race he won was the Japanese Oaks aboard Lady Pastel. Kent has won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Apprentice, and for Outstanding Jockey twice. His biggest success has come in the Triple Crown. He has won the Kentucky Derby 3 times on Real Quiet, Fusiachi Pegasus, and Big Brown. He followed up Real Quiet’s win with a win in the Preakness before losing the Belmont by a nose. His biggest wins in 2007 came aboard Corinthian in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, and Met Mile.
