May 18, 2012

Handicapping Success & Race of the Week

My picks were right on the money last week. My “Play of the Day” on Saturday was Commentator. He got home for a return of $10.80 for a $2 win bet. I also keyed him first on a trifecta wager which returned $625 for a $2 bet. As if that weren’t enough I gave you the trifecta in the Bing Crosby COLD. While it was certainly no monster, paying $194, it was fairly easy to figure out. I also advertised a win bet on Street Boss in that race who returned a respectable $6.40. I also had the trifecta in the Vanderbilt, which paid a measly $135 or so. Alright, I’m done bragging now. Race of the Week is up, so check it out. This weeks race is the West Virginia Derby. You can find the Race of the Week on the red toolbar at the top of the page. Thanks for reading!

Sunday Selections

I’d say my selections were pretty damn good Saturday. Commentator got home for me, and I gave out a $1 trifecta in that race worth $312. I also had the winner in the Vanderbilt, and I gave out the trifecta which was worth $67.50.  I hope you played it, because unfortunately I did not. Lets take a look at the races for Sunday and see if we can keep this momentum going.

Jim Dandy (Grade 2)

I don’t like morning line favorite Pyro in this spot. I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but he has NEVER won past a 1 1/16. I will look to Wood Memorial winner, Tale of Ekati to get the job done. He should lay close to the speed and make a move late at odds of 10-1. I also like Mint Lane to hold on for a piece.

1st- Tale of Ekati (10-1)
2nd- Mint Lane (5-2)
3rd- Macho Again (10-1)

WIN on TALE OF EKATI
$1 Trifecta (3,5/3,5,7/ALL)
$1 Superfecta (3,5/3,5/1,4,7,8/1,4,7,8)

Bing Crosby (Grade 1)

Its hard to go against morning line favorite Street Boss in this race. He has been bulletproof lately, and I believe he will be a top contender for the Breeders Cup Sprint. “The Boss” will roll late and flatten this field. In Summation should also be moving late. He is clearly the second best horse in the race on paper. Any number of horses could pick up third. Given the odds,  I wouldn’t stick too much money in your exotic wagers. I encourage you to bet Street Boss to win if you can get his morning line odds of 9/5.

1st- Street Boss (9/5)
2nd- In Summation (7/2)
3rd- Jungle Prince (15-1)

WIN on STREET BOSS
$1 Trifecta (1/4/2,3,5,7,9)

Saturday Selections

Diana (Grade 1)

Bayou’s Lassie looks like she could be lone speed at 12-1. I expect her to hold on for a piece, but I don’t know if she can beat this bunch. I believe Bit of Whimsy is sitting on a big race at 12-1. She is a daughter of Distorted Humor, and has been coming up short going a mile. I expect her to return to form at her preferred distance of 1 1/8.  Dynaforce nearly beat Maralaukana in her first US start at the end of June. Hailing from France, that was her first race since August. She should be in the fray early on, and I expect her to grab a piece. Wait a While and Rutherienne also figure to play a role in the outcome of this ultra tough Grade 1.

1st- Bit of Whimsy (12-1)
2nd- Dynaforce (4-1)
3rd- Bayou’s Lassie (12-1)

Plays:

$1 Trifecta: (1,2,3/1,2,3,4,10/1,2,3,4,10)

Whitney (Grade 1)

I took a stand against Commentator last time out and it paid off, but I am going to take him this time. Though I don’t recall the year, Commentator has already won this race. I’m hoping he can go from flag fall to thats all. The Dutrow trained Rising Moon should be mounting a bid from off the pace. I expect him to get a piece. I also like AP Arrow who has been tabbed at 10-1 after losing as the favorite in the Suburban.

1st- Commentator (3-1) *PLAY OF THE DAY*
2nd- Rising Moon (10-1)
3rd- AP Arrow (10-1)

Plays:

$1 Trifecta (1/2,7-10/2,7-10)

Vanderbilt Handicap (Grade 2)

This really sets up for the former Breeders Cup Sprint winner Thor’s Echo. I believe he could get it done, but I am leaning in another direction. I like Abraaj, based off his third place finish to Benny The Bull. I’m looking for the speed to fade and him to pick up the pieces. I can see First Defence getting a piece if Castellano chooses to rate him.

1st- Abraaj (3-1)
2nd- Thor’s Echo (6-1)
3rd- First Defence (4-1)

Plays:

$1 Trifecta (1,5/1,2,5,6/ALL)

Saratoga Selections (Races 1-5)

Race 1- By Proxy has performed well in his two career starts. The cutback to 6 furlongs should be to his liking. I expect him to improve in his third career start. Look for this son of Tiznow to take the cake at 7/2. I’ll throw At Attention and Charging Hero in my exotics.

$1 Trifecta (2/1,7/1,3,5,7)
$2 Daily Double (2/1,6)
$2 Pick 3 2/1,6/1,3)

Race 2- I really love these 2-year-old maiden races! Todd Pletcher has a coupled entry in this race that looks very appealing, even at 2-1. Join The Dance, has two races under his belt, and his in last race he earned a monstrous ESF of 104. He was reeled in on the lead last time out, but I’m hoping he can go from flag fall to that’s all. His main competition will be the Asmussen and Bridgmahon combo on Unbridle’s Dream. Although heavily bet in his debut race, he sped to the lead and faded. I would stay away from the exotics in this race and place a straight win wager on the coupled entry of Join The Dance, and Forest Tango.

WIN on #1
$1 Pick 4 (1/1,3/1,4,6,10/2,6,12)

Race 3- This optional claimer brings about the return of the highly regarded Mushka. This filly was sidelined after a Grade 2 victory as a 2-year-old. She wont be my pick in this race. I’m going to go with One Carolina instead. I don’t think she will get much company up front, and she has been bulletproof in her two career starts. She has been tabbed at 3-1. My main reason for going against Mushka is the layoff. Many horses run well as two-year-olds only to fade away when they get older. I’m not saying this will be the case with her, but I want to see her race once as a three-year-old before I make up my mind.

$2 Exacta (1,3/1,3,4)
$1 Trifecta (1,3/1,3,4/1,3,4,6)

Race 4- While I am a bit concerned about his post position (10), I will go with Persian at 4-1. He has improved with every start, and will get an extra ½ furlong to get the job done today. Timothy Ritvo has two first time starters coupled as a single entry. Both have flashed some nice gate works and could get there at 8-1. The favorite is the Dutrow trainee Grimaldi. He has only a single race, and was 4 lengths behind my top choice Persian while finishing fourth.

$1 Exacta (1,6,10/1,4,6,10)
$1 Trifecta (10/1,4,6/1,3,4,6,7,8,9)

Race 5- Wow, this is such a large field that I don’t know where to begin. My top selection will be the Graham Motion trained Frenchman’s Cove. He is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time, and has competed valiantly against allowance foes. Cross The Atlantic looks tough with Ramon Dominguez in the irons. His last race can be discarded due to the lack of pace and the fact that he was checked more than once. He fits well with this group at 10-1.

$1 Exacta (2,12/,2,6,9,12)
$1 Trifecta (2,12/2,6,9,12/1,2,6,9,12)

Sanford Stakes

Sanford Stakes (Grade 2)

#1 Officer Ipod- First out winner from the barn of Anthony Dutrow. He won in wire-to-wire fashion in a time of :59 for five furlongs. The son of Officer will retain the services of Ramon Dominguez. I am a big fan of Dominguez, so that is a plus for me. There is no telling what type this one is, but he is going to have to adopt a new running style, or he will get burned up on the front end.

#2 Dagnabit- Undefeated winner of the Tremont is the lone stakes winner in the field. He should lay off the early pace, and make a move towards the top of the stretch. I’m not too impressed with his speed figures. I would definitely use him second and third, but I’m not sure if I would use him on top.

#3 Desert Party- This son of Street Cry is a $2.1 million purchase, owned by the famed Darley Stable. He was much the best first time out, earning an ESF of 93. He will have Edgar Prado in the irons for this one, and should be in the thick of it.

#4 Notonthesamepage- This colt is faaaaaast. He broke the Churchill Downs track record last out going 4 ½ furlongs, while earning an ESF of 107. Wesley Ward has him working like a machine. I’m kind of surprised to see Elvis Trujillo up, but he is capable. If this colt runs back to his last race its all over but the crying. You have to use this colt in all spots.

#5 Bullion Cache- Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez will hook up for this colt. Johnny is going to have to rate this guy, because Notonthesamepage will burn him up if he tries to go with him. These are two-year-olds and anything can happen, but I don’t see it happening for this son of Seeking The Gold.

#6 Vineyard Haven- Earned a very hefty ESF of 98 en route to a first time win at Calder. After that impressive win he was purchased by Bobby Frankel. That says something to me, and it should to you too. Frankel is one of the best trainers in the game and if he thought enough of this colt to purchase him, he is in with a shot. He is one of many with a chance to take this one.

#7 Phosphorescent- Robby Alborado and Dale Romans will hook up for this colt. He is the only colt in the race with a win at 6 furlongs and he took that race from the 9 hole. I like his running style and he should be in the race late. I’ll be throwing him in my exotic tickets.

1st- Vineyard Haven
2nd- Desert Party
3rd-Dagnabit

Plays:
$1 Trifecta (3,6/2,3,6/1,2,3,6,7)

Racing Legends: Skip Away

Skip Away is one of the first horses I can recall watching or hearing about as a young child. Admittedly, I can recall little about him, so I decided to make a post about his awe inspiring career. Let’s take a look back to the 90s at one of the best horses to race in that decade.

Sired by Skip Trial, Skip Away was foaled on April 4,1993. Skip Trial earned $1,837,451 throughout his career while winning 9 Graded Stakes, including 3 Grade 1’s. His best victory came as a three-year-old in the Haskell Invitational. As a sire, Skip Away is far and away his best progeny. Other successful progeny include Grade 2 winner Federal Trial, and millionaire Best of the Rest. Skip Away’s dam is Ingot Way. She was sired by Diplomat Way and earned $66,149 while capturing two minor stakes in her career. Skip Away was far and away her best progeny. She also produced a colt named Seeking The Way, by Seeking The Gold that went on to win $471,650.

Born a beautiful gray colt, Skip Away was foaled in Florida. He was purchased by Hubert “Sonny” Hine for his wife, Caroline. She wanted a gray colt because vision problems made it difficult for her to view horses of other colors on the track. They purchased him for the relatively small amount of $22,500 as a yearling.

As a two-year-old, Skip Away won only a single race from six starts. He did flash some signs of future greatness by placing in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. His first stakes victory would come as a three-year-old in the Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes. He won in grand fashion, smashing the field by 6 lengths and setting a new track record of 1:47.20 for the 1 1/8 distance over the wet fast track.

Just as many colts before him Skip Away went into the Kentucky Derby with much hype. He would finish the race far back and without an excuse. He would press on to the Preakness, and a respectable second place finish to Louis Quatorze. Although Skip Away crushed Louis Quatorze in the Blue Grass, he couldn’t catch him this time, as Louis Quatorze would set a new track record. Skip Away would also finish second in the Belmont Stakes after a daring stretch duel with Editor’s Note.

After the Triple Crown races concluded, Skip Away’s connections opted for the Haskell Invitational, a race which his sire had been victorious in. He would take that race and continue forward to the Jockey Club Gold Cup for a rematch with Louis Quatorze, Editor’s Note, and Horse of the Year, Cigar.

Cigar was sent off the heavy 1/5 favorite. Skip Away took the lead as they turned for home, while Louis Quatorze who had relinquished the lead was fading. Jerry Bailey had Cigar fully extended for the drive home in third. Skip Away’s lead slowly diminished as they hit the wire, and he just barely beat Cigar to the finish.

Trouble wasn’t far away for Skip Away. After two inexplicable defeats in the Philip H. Iselin Breeder’s Cup Handicap, and the Woodward Stakes jockey Shane Sellers was replaced by Jerry Bailey. With Bailey in the irons, Skip Away would adopt a front running style and win 9 consecutive races. Under another new jockey, Mike Smith, Skip Away would leave his greatest mark on racing.

Jerry Bailey wasn’t able to ride Skip Away in the 1997 Breeders Cup Classic, due to an obligation to ride another horse. Due to this, Mike Smith was given the mount. Facing the likes of Deputy Commander and Touch Gold, Skip Away would crush the competition in the Breeders Cup Classic. Unchallenged throughout, he would go on to win by 6 lengths and set a track and race record time of 1:59.16 for the 1 ¼ distance.

Skip Away would race a five-year-old claiming victory in five Grade 1’s, including the Hollywood Gold Cup, Pimlico Special, and Woodward Stakes. He was retired after his loss in the 1998 Breeders Cup Classic. Skip Away ended his career with $9,616,360 in earnings. He was named Champion Three-Year-Old in 1996, Champion Older Male Horse in 1997 and 1998, and Horse of the Year in 1998. He concluded his career with a race record of 38: 18-10-6.

As a sire Skip Away has had a fair amount of success. His most successful progeny is Crystal Violet, who was raced in Japan. In 2001, Gulfstream Park honored Skip Away by changing the name of the Broward Handicap, to the Skip Away Handicap. Skip Away has left a lasting mark on horse racing. Not only was he one of the best horses of his generation, Skip Away is one of the last great horses to race through their five-year-old campaign. Racing needs more horses like Skip Away.

Eddie Read & San Diego Handicap

Eddie Read Handicap (Grade 1)

Lava Man
looks pretty tough in this race. He’s a tough old gelding, but hasn’t been to the winners circle since June of 2007. I expect Tyler Baze to gun him out to the lead again. Baze has been golden as of late, winning the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Swaps. Spring House should be ready to go in his first start since Dubai. He will be rolling late, but I don’t think he can catch Lava Man. Rafael Bejarano should also be flying late with Monzante. He beat Lava Man by a very slim margin last out, but I don’t think that will be the case this time due to the shorter distance.

1st- Lava Man
2nd- Spring House
3rd- Monzante

Plays:

$1 Trifecta (1/4,7/2,4,7)
$1 Superfecta (1/4,7/2,4,7/2,4,4,6,7)

San Diego Handicap (Grade 2)

Graham Motion will be sending Rebellion past a mile for what I believe to be the first time. I don’t think that should be a problem, but you never know. Rebellion is 2 for 2 so far this year, and he will have top jockey Rafael Bejarano in the irons. The ultra consistent Surf Cat will have David Flores up for the first time. He has only been off the board only twice in his career and I see no reason for this to be the third time. Well Armed should perform well first back from Dubai. He beat Heatseeker in his last race in the US, and I expect him to pick up where he left off.

1st- Rebellion
2nd- Surf Cat
3rd- Well Armed

Plays:

$1 Trifecta (2,3,6 BOX)

Vote On Curlin’s Future

You really have to hand it to Jess Jackson. Not only did he keep Curlin in training as a 4 year old, but he is now letting fans decide the future of his colt. His website, which you can visit by clicking here, has four options to choose from. The first option is for Curlin to continue his campaign on the turf. I could see the upside of doing this. Not only would his value as a sire go even higher, but his legacy as one of the best ever would be cemented if he were to be successful. The second choice is for him to revert back to dirt. He has already done everything you can do on dirt, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him go back.

The third option that Jess Jackson provides us with is a synthetic campaign. I would like to see this on one condition. If Big Brown wins the Haskell and stays in training for the Breeders Cup Classic, I think Curlin should race against him. This would be a heavyweight bout of epic proportions if it were to take place. Everyone knows how good Big Brown is. If Curlin could take him down, he would become something of a legend. The last choice is for Curlin to retire. Nobody wants to see that happen. He is one of the only stars currently active in the sport. I can only imagine where the game would be if he hadn’t raced this year.

My top choice is for him to remain on the turf, given that Big Brown doesn’t race past the Haskell, but if he does I’d like to see Curlin gear up for a defense of his Breeders Cup Classic title. Make sure you head on over to StroneStreet Farms and let your voice be heard. What are you waiting for?!

Virginia Derby

Virginia Derby (Grade 2)

#1 Your Round- James Lopez will retain the mount on this son of Distorted Humor. Third last out in the Colonial Turf Cup at 50-1, this colt should come running late. He was very wide running for home in that race. This colt is qualified for NW2 and I would rather see him there. I could see him getting third, but anything more than that is pushing it.

#2 Old Man Buck- I remember watching this colt win the Cradle Stakes at River Downs last September. He didn’t have much to run at when finishing third to Tizdejavu last out in the Jefferson Cup. That was also his first race since November of ’07 so I expect a much improved performance in this race. I don’t see him winning this one, but I will use him second and third.

#3 El Sultry Sun- Finished up track last out in the Colonial Turf Cup. I’ll give him a pardon since the track was wet. Edgar Prado will be picking up the mount. He will have a hard time winning this event. I like him to finish third at best.

#4 Court Vision- I felt he was a play against last out in the Colonial Turf Cup, and I was right. He finished 4th by 8 lengths. Since that was his first time over a wet track I’m willing to forgive his performance. I like him a lot more today at odds of 10-1. I’ll throw him in second and third.

#5 Baltimore Bob- Just like many others in this race, he didn’t do well in the Colonial Turf Cup. He has come back to fire a bullet 4 furlong work. He probably can’t win this one, but I could see him picking up third. If he could do that at 30-1, it would provide for a fat exotics payoff. I’ll cross my fingers.

#6 Budge Man- I highly doubt this one finds the winners circle, or even hits the board for that matter. I wouldn’t use this horse on any of my tickets.

#7 Gio Ponti- Undefeated minus a Breeders Cup loss, this colt won his first start since that loss in the Hill Prince on June 6. Garrett Gomez will retain the mount. Gio Ponti will be very tough in this spot. He should relish the extra distance and come flying along late in the race. I will use him in all spots on my exotic tickets, but he isn’t my choice for the win. He is however, the main rival.

#8 Sailor’s Cap- Smashing victor last out in the Colonial Turf Cup, he took that race by 6 lengths. I like his tactical speed, which should work to his advantage. His ESF in the Turf Cup was a monstrous 105. He is the 8/5 favorite and should be tough to take down. Look for him in the winners circle.

#9 Southwest- John Velazquez’s mount deserves more respect in this race. He has been running against some top class 3 year olds, including Gayego, Gorgie Boy, and Bob Black Jack. He won his first start off a layoff in a NW1X event, and then finished willingly to end up third in a minor stakes. This one could find his way into the exotics at 20-1.

1st- Sailor’s Cap (8/5)

2nd- Southwest (20-1)

3rd- Gio Ponti (9/5)

Plays:

$1 Trifecta (7,8/2,4,7,8,9/1,2,4,5,7,8,9)

$1 Superfecta (7,8/2,7,8,9/2,4,7,8,9/1,2,4,5,7,8,9)

Virginia Oaks

Virginia Oaks (Grade 3)

#1 Miss Mafioso- This filly was left eating Pure Clan’s dust last time out when she finished 5th and last in the Regret. She seems to be in a bit over her head today. I wouldn’t include her on my tickets.

#2 Julia Tuttle- She really woke up two races back when she broke her maiden by 10 lengths. She has really nice speed early speed and that should work to her advantage. She has one of the top local jockeys. Her sire is Giant’s Causeway and his foals seem to be late bloomers. She is a threat, and I would use her in all three spots at 15-1.

#3 Nijinsky Ballet- Garrett Gomez will pick up the mount on this filly. She has been close going a mile, so the extra furlong should work to her advantage. She doesn’t look like much, but I can’t ignore her presence with Gomez up, so I will use her third.

#4 Athena’s Gift- Took quite a bit of time for her to break her maiden. She should be coming from pretty far back and I don’t think he pace is there to set up for her. I am going to toss her.

#5 Clara’s Song- Sired by Brahms, and trained by Carlos Garcia this one doesn’t seem to fit. She was the beaten favorite last out in an optional claimer. If she can’t hit the board in that race, how can she expect to win this one? I won’t be using her on my tickets.

#6 Three Graces- I like the tactical speed that this filly possesses. She was victorious last out in a minor stakes at Canterbury. The fact that Alborado is in the irons is a plus. I believe she will lay close to the pace and pounce late. I don’t like her chances to win, but I can see her running second or third.

#7 Namaste’s Wish- Sired by Pulpit, this filly was a $600,000 purchase at the Fasig Tipton sale in 2006. She hasn’t lived up to that price, but seems to be sitting on a breakthrough race. She reminds me of another Pulpit progeny, Pyro. Both of these horses love to come flying late. I don’t like her for the win, but I would include her second and third.

#8 Born To Be- Yet another filly who will be flying home late. By AP Indy, she just cleared the NW2 condition last out. She seems a bit outclassed, but given her pedigree I will include her third.

#9 Cherokee Queen- This filly should lay somewhat close to the pace. She has a career record of 2 wins from 3 starts. I really like her last win in which she covered 1 1/8 in 1:48 flat. Graham Motion is a master on the turf, and John Velazquez is one of the best jockeys around. I will include her on top of all my exotic tickets.

#10 I Lost My Choo- Here is your favorite. Just like many of the fillies in this race she will be springing her attack late in the game. She just missed for second two back in the Sands Point. Edgar Prado will retain the mount, which is encouraging. I don’t like the price, but I do recognize her capability. I have to use her in all three spots.

1st- Julia Tuttle (15-1)
2nd- Cherokee Queen (5-1)
3rd- Three Graces (8-1)

Plays:

$1 Trifecta (2,9,10/2,6,7,9,10/2,3,6,7,8,9,10)