Virginia Derby
July 16, 2008
Virginia Derby (Grade 2)
#1 Your Round- James Lopez will retain the mount on this son of Distorted Humor. Third last out in the Colonial Turf Cup at 50-1, this colt should come running late. He was very wide running for home in that race. This colt is qualified for NW2 and I would rather see him there. I could see him getting third, but anything more than that is pushing it.
#2 Old Man Buck- I remember watching this colt win the Cradle Stakes at River Downs last September. He didn’t have much to run at when finishing third to Tizdejavu last out in the Jefferson Cup. That was also his first race since November of ’07 so I expect a much improved performance in this race. I don’t see him winning this one, but I will use him second and third.
#3 El Sultry Sun- Finished up track last out in the Colonial Turf Cup. I’ll give him a pardon since the track was wet. Edgar Prado will be picking up the mount. He will have a hard time winning this event. I like him to finish third at best.
#4 Court Vision- I felt he was a play against last out in the Colonial Turf Cup, and I was right. He finished 4th by 8 lengths. Since that was his first time over a wet track I’m willing to forgive his performance. I like him a lot more today at odds of 10-1. I’ll throw him in second and third.
#5 Baltimore Bob- Just like many others in this race, he didn’t do well in the Colonial Turf Cup. He has come back to fire a bullet 4 furlong work. He probably can’t win this one, but I could see him picking up third. If he could do that at 30-1, it would provide for a fat exotics payoff. I’ll cross my fingers.
#6 Budge Man- I highly doubt this one finds the winners circle, or even hits the board for that matter. I wouldn’t use this horse on any of my tickets.
#7 Gio Ponti- Undefeated minus a Breeders Cup loss, this colt won his first start since that loss in the Hill Prince on June 6. Garrett Gomez will retain the mount. Gio Ponti will be very tough in this spot. He should relish the extra distance and come flying along late in the race. I will use him in all spots on my exotic tickets, but he isn’t my choice for the win. He is however, the main rival.
#8 Sailor’s Cap- Smashing victor last out in the Colonial Turf Cup, he took that race by 6 lengths. I like his tactical speed, which should work to his advantage. His ESF in the Turf Cup was a monstrous 105. He is the 8/5 favorite and should be tough to take down. Look for him in the winners circle.
#9 Southwest- John Velazquez’s mount deserves more respect in this race. He has been running against some top class 3 year olds, including Gayego, Gorgie Boy, and Bob Black Jack. He won his first start off a layoff in a NW1X event, and then finished willingly to end up third in a minor stakes. This one could find his way into the exotics at 20-1.
1st- Sailor’s Cap (8/5)
2nd- Southwest (20-1)
3rd- Gio Ponti (9/5)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (7,8/2,4,7,8,9/1,2,4,5,7,8,9)
$1 Superfecta (7,8/2,7,8,9/2,4,7,8,9/1,2,4,5,7,8,9)
