Saturday Stakes, Part I
July 10, 2008
Grade 2 American Derby
This should be a relatively easy wire to wire win for Greg Fox’s Tizdejavu. He is undefeated in two starts on the turf, and has speed to spare. He beat Sailors Cap two races back, and the latter would come back to capture the Colonial Turf Cup. Irish invader Great War Eagle should be in the thick of it. He has ran second in two Grade 3 events overseas, but will be stretching out for the first time. I look for Prime Realestate to get up late for third.
1st- Tizdejavu
2nd Great War Eagle
3rd- Prime Realestate
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (2/1,6,7,8/1,6,7,8
$20 WIN on Tizdejavu
Grade 2 Delaware Handicap
I’m going to go with Hystericalady in what is a very competitive race. She won by 7 lengths last out at Churchill Downs, but will have to go through Unbridled Belle and Spring Waltz. Unbridled Belle took this race with ease last year, and won her first race of 2008 in June. Spring Waltz has been bulletproof lately, winning four races in a row. Her last victory came in the Grade 2 Rampart Handicap in which she split rivals to win easily. No telling who will take this one, but my money is on Hystericalady.
1st- Hystericalady
2nd- Unbridled Belle
3rd- Spring Waltz
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (8,9/8,9,10/2,4,8,9,10)
Grade 1 Princess Rooney
July 8, 2008
7/12 (SAT) G1 Princess Rooney H.- CRC
#1 Dixie Dreamer- This mare won last out in a minor stakes earning a huge ESF of 101. I am not going to claim to be an exert on Calder, but 1:11 seems like a pretty slow time for 6 furlongs. She should come closing, but I don’t think she has much of a chance in this race.
#2 Mistical Plan- This filly has been everywhere. Whether winning the Sunshine Millions Oaks or running behind Rags to Riches in the Kentucky Oaks she always gives her all. She probably won’t be able to wrangle the early lead from Dream Rush, but I think she will be tracking close in second. Winning this race would be a tall order, but I definitely think she could be in the money.
#3 Bereba- She easily won a very cheap minor stakes last out, but I just don’t see her competing in this race. She isn’t classy enough.
#4 Dream Rush- The speed of the speed, this filly was reeled in by Looky Yonder last out. Dream Rush was the first filly to ever beat champion Dreaming of Anna in 2007. She ran well her second time off the shelf last year and I expect the same this time around. Wire to wire.
#5 Miraculous Miss-Ballsy move to run against the boys two back paid off when she finished 3rd. The winner of that race, Benny the Bull, is now the top sprinter in the country. Prior to that race she was second in the inaugural running of the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She caught a VERY tough field in her return and finished a close 4th. She should be right there when its all said and done.
#6 Looky Yonder- Dutrow’s filly has run two very nice races in a row. I’m looking for her to bounce this race. I don’t know why, but she just screams “I’m not going to run” to me. This probably means she will end up winning by 10 lengths. In all seriousness, I would use her third but I don’t see her running another big race.
#7 Rgirldoesn’tbluff- This filly NEEDS the lead and she may or may not get it. If she does, she will be under heavy pressure from the get go. Speed and fade.
1st- Dream Rush
2nd- Miraculous Miss
3rd- Mistical Plan
Plays:
$1 Trifecta: 4,5/3,4,5/3,4,5,6
Ramblings
July 7, 2008
I’m really looking forward to this weekend. Not only do we have the Summit of Speed to look forward to, but the Swaps, Man O’ War, and Barbaro just to name a few. I’m really interested to see how Benny the Bull runs. He just barely got up for the win last time out, and probably didn’t run his best race. I expect a massive improvement this weekend. He isn’t unbeatable, but is certainly the best. With the likes of Fabulous Strike, and Street Boss on the prowl, he will have to earn a win in the Breeders Cup.
I may head down to River Downs tomorrow. Going on a Tuesday probably isn’t very smart but some friends want to go, so what the heck. The races will probably be horrible so I doubt I’ll wager much, if it at all. Who knows, maybe I’ll just sit in the paddock and watch the horses. Check back later this week for stakes selections. I’m pulling out all the stops and putting my best foot forward this weekend. I’m going to bring it. Make sure to check the “Race of the Week” on the red toolbar. I’m not sure which race I will use this weekend, but I’m leaning towards the Man O’ War. I wonder if Curlin will win as easy on the turf as he does on the dirt? I guess we will just have to wait for Saturday!
Dwyer Stakes
July 6, 2008
This week has been mediocre from a handicapping standpoint. I predicted the Prioress flawlessly. Not only did Indian Blessing win easily as I thought she would, but I picked the trifecta straight. It paid $22, but hey that’s better than nothing! Street Boss also got home for me, but he was also a short price. The Bashford Manor was a total flop. My top pick, Theregoesjojo, got a terrible trip, but closed hard and just missed for third. Raw Silk was forced to go too fast early and relinquished the lead near the top of the stretch in the American Oaks. My second choice, Pure Clan, was the eventual winner. I was further humbled in the United Nations Stakes when local lonshot Precious Passion took the race. I had nearly dismissed him. Let’s take a look at the Dwyer Stakes and see if I can redeem myself.
Halo Najib- I’m glad to see this horse back on the dirt. He has had a decent amount of success at this distance. He seems to be sitting further off the pace then usual. I think this will be beneficial in this race because it is loaded with speed. Look for this colt to be rolling home hard late. I will include him on top.
Web Gem- How can I like a horse who has lost NW1X two times in a row? He needs to improve to compete in this race. I won’t be using him, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Zito got this colt on the board.
Mint Lane- This colt NEEDS the lead. He should get it, but will catch pressure early and throughout the race. I expect him to back up, but he should still hit the board. His ESF was huge last time out, checking in at 108. I have to respect the favorite in this one.
Ready’s Image- This colt was the talk of the two-year-old world last year until Majestic Warrior and War Pass knocked him down a notch or two. He has since won a minor stakes, and flopped in a Grade 2 sprint. This will be his first time routing and I have no idea what to expect from him. I would use him third as backup, but I really don’t know about this one.
Pascal- Wired the field last out, beating Web Gem in an NW1X event. This is quite a step up in class for this colt. I don’t see him doing it this time, but I’m going to be interested to see how he runs.
Fidelio- This colt has a few questions to answer. The first question is, can he route? I would say yes based on his pedigree, plus if Bobby Frankel thinks he can, that’s good enough for me. He should sit right off the pace, and make a move towards the top of the stretch. I will be using him on top.
Tizbig- I have no idea what this colt is doing in this race. I wouldn’t use him on any of my tickets.
1st- Halo Najib (5-1)
2nd- Fidelio (5-2)
3rd- Ready’s Image (9-2)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta Halo Najib, Fidelio/Halo Najib, Fidelio, Mint Lane/Halo Najib, Fidelio, Mint Lane, Ready’s Image (1,6/1,3,6/1,3,4,6)
Saturday Stakes
July 4, 2008
7/05 (SAT) G1 Prioress S.- BEL
This is quite a competitive race. Bob Baffert’s champion filly, Indian Blessing, will seek to win for the first time since February. She should appreciate the rollback to 6 furlongs. Indian Blessing has won at 7 furlongs and 5 ½ furlongs. This will be the first time Garret Gomez hasn’t been aboard the filly since her maiden score. John Velazquez will be in the irons for this race. She will catch pressure early from Secret Gypsy, but I think she can fend her off without doing too much damage to her own cause. I expect Indian Blessing to take this one with relative ease. By The Light should be chasing late and has a decent chance to run second here. This filly is undefeated and has shown no signs of vulnerability, at least not yet. Indian Way should also be chasing late, and I predict she will end up third.
1st-Indian Blessing (9-5)
2nd- By The Light (4-1)
3rd- Indian Way (6-1)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (3/1,4/ALL)
WIN on Indian Blessing
7/05 (SAT) G1 Triple Bend Invitational H.- HOL
Street Boss looks like the real deal. Not only did he win after clipping heels in the Los Angeles Handicap, he broke the track record. He has the looks of a Breeders Cup Sprint contender. Although he is the favorite, I really like this one. I have been wrong on more than one occasion, and I may be wrong here, but I think this horse is top caliber. Tropic Storm ran second to Street Boss three races back, and I expect him to do so again in this spot. High Standards and Joel Rosario may be able to hang on for third.
1st- Street Boss (9-5)
2nd- Tropic Storm (5-1)
3rd- High Standards (8-1)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta 5/3,4/ALL
WIN on Street Boss
7/05 (SAT) G3 Bashford Manor S.- CD
Robby Albarado and Ken McPeek have a very nice colt in this race. He goes by the name of Theregoesjojo, and he won very nicely first time out at Churchill Downs. That trip over the track may be a factor if he wins. Despite this, he will be at the mercy of the pacesetters. He came from well off the pace first out, so he will need quick fractions. Asmussen’s colt doesn’t look bad either. Lyin’ Heart is undefeated in two starts, including a 3 length stakes victory at Lone Star Park. I’m looking for him to finish second. Wesley Ward’s colt, Silver Bayer, seems to be kicking the barn down based off of his recent works. He won at first asking going short at Gulfstream, and looks like he can improve here. I see him grabbing third.
1st- Theregoesjojo (5-1)
2nd- Lyin’ Heart (3-1)
3rd- Silver Bayer(5-1)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta: (3,7/2,3,5,7/2-7)
$1 Superfecta: (3/2,5,7/2-7/2-7)
Click here for the American Oaks. If you wish to read an in depth analysis of the United Nation Stakes, please click “Race of the Week” on the red toolbar.
Friday Selections
July 3, 2008
July 4th never fails to provide us with great stakes races. This year will be no different. In the Grade 2 Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs Einstein looks very tough at even money. I don’t believe he will lose this one and I advise you to stay away from this race. If you can’t resist, I encourage you to throw in Thorn Song and Faith’s Magic who are 3-1 and 15-1, respectively. Thorn Song will enjoy shortening up to a mile, and Faith’s Magic is improving.
1st-Einstein (1-1)
2nd-Thorn Song (3-1)
3rd- Faith’s Magic (15-1)
$1 Trifecta 3/2,4/1,2,4,7
In the Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap Mike Luzzi and Tasteyville should be hauling ass out of the gate. He looks nice in this spot at odds of 3-1. I also like Rick Dutrow’s Not For Money. Prado will pilot this 4 year old colt who beat Bribon last out. Bribon would come back to win easily. Kiaran McLaughlin’s Lucky Island will be the favorite. He has been slotted at 2-1 after winning the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap last out. I’m not very wild about this race on the whole.
1st- Not For Money (3-1)
2nd- Tasteyville (5-2)
3rd- Lucky Island (2-1)
$1 Trifecta 1,5/1,2,5/1,2,5,6
The Grade 3 Jersey Shore Handicap J Be K will try to airmail the field. His main competition will be Fujita. I’m not sure if Fujita can run him down. J Be K has been placed at odds of 6/5 and I can’t like this race because he seems too tough to take down. Silver Edition figures to be chasing late.
1st- J Be K (6-5)
2nd- Fujita (4-1)
3rd- Silver Edition (3-1)
Plays:
$10 Exacta (5/4)
The Grade 2 First Flight Handicap will be the major female race for tomorrow. I’m going to side with the second choice, Rite Moment. Gary Contessa’s filly has raced very well under the guidance of Rajiv Maragh. She had claimed victory twice in Grade 2 company before running into Cowgirls Don’t Cry. She is the pick at 5-2. Wild Gams also looks tough in this spot at 5-1. She ran a 102 Equibase figure in her victory last out. Baroness Thatcher should be picking up the pieces late and finish 3rd.
1st- Rite Moment (5-2)
2nd-Wild Gams (5-1)
3rd- Baroness Thatcher (5-1)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta: 2/1,3,6/1,3,6
If you checked in on Tuesday, you will know that I gave two picks to win and both got home for me. Jiggs Coz was victorious in the Dominion Day and paid $8.80 to win. Not bad considering how small the field was. My other selection was Deal Making. Dominguez was able to guide him home for the win and a $6 return. While I am not overly confident in these Friday races, I do feel good about Raw Silk in the American Oaks. Click here to read my article covering that race. Thanks for reading, and check back tomorrow for the picks in Saturdays races!
Grade 1 American Oaks
July 3, 2008
#1 Pure Clan- I really liked this filly in the Kentucky Oaks, where she finished third. She came from that race to win her first start on the turf easily. She should be close, but I’m concerned that she might not have enough pace. This classy filly must be used in all three spots.
#2 Magical Fantasy- Gallagher’s British filly hasn’t quite been up to the task in the US yet. She had a very nice 5 furlong move on June 26, and it looks like all systems go. I won’t be including her on my tickets.
#3 Satan’s Circus-This Gone West filly has raced in France for her entire career. She has had a large amount of success, but against lesser class. I’ll leave her out and watch this time.
#4 Raw Silk- Thomas Albertrani’s filly became a Grade 2 winner last out by winning the Sand’s Point at Belmont Park. That race was a very nice step forward. I really like her front running style, and I believe it will be to her benefit. She could be up there all alone; the pick.
#5 Clearly Foxy- The always dangerous Garrett Gomez will pick up the mount on this filly. She won an optional claimer last out, but doesn’t appear good enough to run with these. I’m looking elsewhere.
#6 Bel Air Sizzle- Rafael Bejarano just missed with this filly last out in the Grade 2 Honeymoon. More ground will definitely be to her liking. I’ll use her second and third.
#7 Annie Skates- Another Great Britian shipper. I don’t see her getting a piece in this spot. She just doesn’t look classy enough.
#8 Missit- Finally, a British filly who can compete in this race. Missit became a grade 2 winner in her first US start. She won that race by a nose, and came back to run 4th in the Honeymoon. That bounce was easily predicted. I look for her to get back to business here. Use her second and third.
#9 Caribbean Sunset- This filly is a Grade 3 winner overseas, and ran 4th by a ½ length in the Grade 1 Irish Guineas. She came back from that race to finish 3rd in a Grade 1 at Ascot. She will be very tough in this spot. Use her second and third.
#10 Backseat Rhythm- Castellano chose this filly over my pick to win the race. Bad decision JJ. She looks OK, but I would only use her third, or not at all.
#11 Zaskar- Yet another overseas shipper. She has had a fair amount of success so far in her career, but doesn’t have the class to run in this race.
#12 My Baby Baby- McPeek’s filly ran a monster 101 BSF last out. She has also fired a bullet 5 furlong work since then. The post draw is going to be hard on her, but I would use her second and third.
1st- Raw Silk
2nd- Pure Clan
3rd- Caribbean Sunset
Plays:
$1 Trifecta: Raw Silk, Pure Clan/ Raw Silk, Pure Clan, Caribbean Sunset, My Baby Baby, Missit, Bel Air Sizzle/ Raw Silk, Pure Clan, Caribbean Sunset, My Baby Baby, Missit, Bel Air Sizzle (1,4/1,4,6,8,9,12/1,4,6,8,9,12)
Dime Superfecta: Raw Silk, Pure Clan/ Raw Silk, Pure Clan, Caribbean Sunset, My Baby Baby, Missit, Bel Air Sizzle/ Raw Silk, Pure Clan, Caribbean Sunset, My Baby Baby, Missit, Bel Air Sizzle/ Raw Silk, Pure Clan, Caribbean Sunset, My Baby Baby, Missit, Bel Air Sizzle