Cradle Stakes (River Downs)
August 31, 2008
$200,000 Miller Lite Cradle Stakes (River Downs)
#1 Captain Bry (6-1)- Captured a minor stakes at Colonial Downs two races back, but regressed last out in an allowance at River Downs. The added distance seems to have contributed to his demise last out. Larry Melancon will make the trip to River Downs to pilot this colt. If this race was shorter I might like him, but I can’t endorse him after finishing nine lengths behind the winner last out, who is also entered in this race.
#2 Appalachian Trail (5-2)- Local jockey Cesar Ccamaque will retain the mount on this son of Monashee Mountain. After finishing second to Chilliness last out, the connections have opted to add lasix. I’m going to say it helped since he fired a nice :59 B five furlong move at Presque Isle Downs on August 24. He proved he can run on the turf, and distance shouldn’t be a question. Appalachian Trail is one of the two logical choices to knock off the favorite. Keep an eye out for this colt.
#3 Chilliness (4-1)- Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel will be in the irons today. Even Bo-rail would’ve been envious of the move Azeal De Leon made up the hedge on this undefeated son of Ecton Park to score a shocking upset at 55-1 last out. He has worked five furlongs in 1:04 B at Churchill Downs since that win. Bringing in Borel shows me their serious, and it would be no surprise to see this gelding in the winners circle again.
#4 Fitzaslew (7/5)- From the freshman sire Seattle Fitz, who won the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap, and finished second in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. Fitzaslew showed he ran run like his daddy when taking a maiden special weight event at Churchill Downs with relative ease. The second place finisher in that race came back to break his maiden, and then finish fifth in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. Trainer Ken McPeek won this race with Old Man Buck last year, and will have Perry Ouzts on this horse just as he had him on Buck. Make no mistake; this is Fitzaslew’s race to lose.
#5 Bourbon Bay (15-1)- Broke his maiden at Ellis Park last out, holding on to win by a head after stalking the pace under John McKee. He will have the services of Julio Felix for this event. The time for that race was very slow, and he doesn’t seem to be competitive on paper. I don’t like to cross any horse out of a race like this, but things don’t look good for him.
#6 Night Action (8-1)- Michael Maker and Victor Lebron hook up to bring this colt to the races. He finished third last out in an allowance event at River Downs after breaking his maiden at Ellis Park. A son of Action This Day, he will have to improve vastly to find himself in the winners circle in the Cradle Stakes.
#7 Just Like Biscuit (20-1)- Claimed his first victory at Ellis Park under Bonnie Castaneda last out. A son of Sligo Bay, this gelding has finished second to stakes runners Phosphorescent, and Medaglia D’onore. While he usually closes, he found himself much closer to the pace in his first win. I don’t see him winning, but he could find his way onto some exotic tickets at odds of 20-1 or better.
#8 Classic Bridges (30-1)- Lasix will be added for this son of Sky Classic who finished fourth in his lone start at Delaware Park. Local rider Otto Thorwarth will pick up the mount. He is somewhat of an x factor, but I wouldn’t count on a big run from this guy. He will have to step up big time to compete with these.
1st- Fitzaslew
2nd- Apalachain Trail
3rd- Chilliness
Plays:
$2 Trifecta (4/2,3,7/1,2,3,6,7,8)
$1 Superfecta (4/2,3,7/1,2,3,6,7/1,2,3,6,7,8)
First Defence Romps Home in the Forego
August 31, 2008
Yesterday was great for me handicapping wise. I gave out the winner in the Forego, First Defence. He ended up paying $17.60 to win. Like Bobby Frankel, I too was waiting for him to back up in the stretch. First Defence showed us how good he really is, and drew off to an easy win. I thought he could get it done because of the seven furlongs distance. If you look back to 2007 he ran second to Hard Spun in the Kings Bishop at seven furlongs. My pick was based largely on that and his recent form. First Defence’s next start will likely come in the Breeders Cup, according to trainer Bobby Frankel.
Like everyone else in the world, I also had Curlin. He made a big move heading for home, but seemed to flatten out a bit even though he went by for the win. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, he will be cranked up and ready to flatten the field in his next start. I’ll touch more on the subject of Curlin later this week. Make sure to check back later today for a full analysis of the Pennsylvania Derby, Del Mar Debutante, Hopeful and Cradle Stakes.
Grade 1 Forego
August 30, 2008
Grade 1 Forego (8/30/08)
#2 First Defence- This colt is a real fighter. It’s a rare occasion to see this colt finish far back. Whether he is stalking the pace or setting it, First Defence almost always shows up to race. He should love this seven furlong distance, and Bobby Frankel knows how to place horses. JJ Castelano has ridden this colt in every start of his career, but Channing Hill will be up for this event. You can certainly make a case for him to win this. First Defence is a must use on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#1 Forefathers- I’m glad Mott finally got a win under this colts belt. He did emphatically too, drawing off by six and a half lengths. He looks to be improving, and if I’m right he will run big. A switch from Desormeaux to Prado may benefit the colt. Fans of this colt will have to hope for fast fractions. He has to show that last race wasn’t a fluke, but I see good things in this colts future.
#3 Eternal Star- Having achieved five wins from six starts in minor stakes this year, Trombetta has brought this four year old colt to Saratoga to face the big boys. He has beat some nice horses, including Xchanger. Id definitely include this one of the bottom part of my trifectas and superfectas, but I don’t know if he is good enough to win here.
#4 Bold Start- Couldn’t get past Eternal Star last time out. This McPeek trainee looks nice, but I don’t think he is ready for Grade 1 competition yet. He may stumble in for fourth but I don’t see much more than that happening.
#5 Ferocious Fire- Has only lost once in nine starts facing exceptionally weaker horses. His last win isn’t as nice as it looks, since the race came off the turf. I’m going to toss this one.
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#1 Premium Wine- Claimed a victory in his third start since a layoff last time out. He showed a liking for this seven furlongs distance earlier in the year when he finished a close third in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap. I love his running style for this race, and he should right there late.
#6 Real Estate- Sired by son of Storm Cat, Yield. Blinkers really did the trick for this colt who is two for two since having them added. He has some vicious speed, setting a 21 4/5 and 44 3/5 quarter and half mile last time out. I really like this colts chances at 15-1. Be sure to include him on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#7 Lucky Island- Has dominated the New York sprint scene since arriving earlier this year. He has improved every time he has stepped on the track this year, and this is his race to lose. He will be hard to beat, but I’m going to try. Use this horse on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#8 Greeley’s Conquest- Winner of the Prarie Meadows Sprint isn’t nearly fast enough to hang with these. Don’t include him on your tickets.
#9 Tasteyville- Back to seven furlongs after another attempt at routing. Was second to Lucky Island in the Grade 2 Tom Fool. He may be able to grab third or fourth in this race, but I don’t see much more happening for this son of With Approval.
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1st- First Defence
2nd- Lucky Island
3rd- Forefathers
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (2,6,7/2,6,7/1,2,6,7,8)
$1 Superfecta (2,7/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7,9/1,2,6,7,9)
Woodward Stakes
August 29, 2008
Grade 1 Woodward Stakes 8/30/08
Curlin in the 2007 Breeders Cup Classic
#1 AP Arrow- Last years Clark Handicap winner hasn’t been the same since returning from Dubai. The jockey change from Ramon Dominguez to Cornelio Velasquez may help. This will be his third start since running a nice fourth in Dubai. If he can’t run well here, I think they will send him to the shed. Don’t use this horse on your exotic wagers.
#2 Loose Leaf- Ran a monster race last out on August 13, earning a 110 ESF. From the barn of Ken McPeek, that race was his first since 2007. If he can run back to that performance he will be a top contender here, but if he regresses you won’t see him. I suggest using this horse on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#3 Past The Point- Another colt who earned a huge figure last out. This son of Indian Charlie comes from the Darley barn, and trainer Eoin Harty. Edgar Prado will pilolt this one. He has flashed ability here and there, but this is quite an ambitious spot. I expect good things from this colt in the future, but I can’t endorse him here.
#4 Divine Park- I was so confident in this colt last time out in the Metropolitan Mile, I cashed for over $500. He will have some questions to answer in this race. The first one is can he go an extra furlong? I’m not sure that he can, but based on the fact that he was moving away from Commentator late last time out, he could. He has plenty of tactical speed, so Garcia lay wherever he pleases. While he is the most likely candidate to knock Curlin from the top spot, I don’t see it happening in this race. Include this horse in all exacta, trifecta, and superfectas.
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#5 Curlin- The 2007 Horse of the Year has returned to the dirt, after finishing second to 2006 Breeders Cup Turf winner Red Rocks. If all systems are go, Curlin should trample this field. He will show Big Brown and company why they don’t want to face him. Curlin is the king. Long live the king!
#6 Dr. D.F.C.- This New York bred would need a miracle to win here.
#7 Out of Control- Turf runner will try the dirt for the fourth time. He missed Dancing Forever by a nose last out, and has been running well all year. If his form transfers to the dirt, he will be in the mix. John Velazquez will pick up the mount. I would use this horse to round out a trifecta or superfecta but I’m having a hard time making a case for him.
#8 Wanderin Boy- Speedball looks to be lone speed in this race. He finished far back in this race last year after setting grueling fractions. Prior that race last year he was second in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap. He fired a bullet four furlong move in 47 1/5 H, which was 1/30. A must use due to his speed, expect to see Wanderin Boy in the mix.
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1st- Curlin
2nd- Divine Park
3rd- Wanderin Boy
Plays:
$2 Trifecta (5/4,8/2,3,4,7,8)
$1 Superfecta (5/2,4,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,7,8)
Racebook Reviews
August 28, 2008
I’ve compiled a comprehensive review of some of the best racebooks on the internet. I think you will really enjoy it. Click here, or “Racebook Reviews” on the red toolbar to check it out!
Superfecta
August 28, 2008
Being the super handicapper that I am, I like to play a wager called the superfecta. If you’re a veteran of the racetrack you’ve surely heard of the wager, but if not allow me to explain. The superfecta is a wager in which you must correctly select the first four finishers of a horse race. If you can hit it, the superfecta almost always pays well. I’ve seen the superfecta wager pay over $100,000. Just like the exacta, and trifeca wager, there are various types of superfectas. Lets take a look!
Straight Superfecta- This is probably one of the hardest things to do in handicapping. Its hard enough to pick a winner, but figuring out who will finish second, third, and fourth exactly is quite a task. An example of a straight superfecta would be playing a 3-4-7-1 in a given horse race. The horses would have to finish in that exact order for you to win.
Superfecta Box- Just like an exacta, and trifecta, you can box the superfecta. Box means that all of the horses you use can finish in any of the spots for your wager. Since the superfecta requires atleast four horses, you must box atleast four horses, but you may box as many as you like. For example, you could box horses 1,3,4,5,7 and for you to win any combination of those horses would have to finish 1-4.
Superfecta Wheel- To wheel means to use everyone in the race. Lets say you like Colonel John’s chances of winning the Travers, but your not quite sure who will run second, third, and fourth. You could use Colonel John first, and wheel the field second, third and fourth. While this will cost a lot of money, it could pay dividends if a long shot can run in the money.
Superfecta Part Wheel- So your pretty sure Colonel John will win, but you also know Mambo In Seattle is improving. If you play a part wheel you can use both of those horses first, and include or leave out any of the other horses in the race first, second, third, and fourth.
Feel free to email me at ryanthethird [at] gmail.com if you have any further questions.
Trifecta
August 27, 2008
Three is company, and three is also the number of horses you must correctly select in order to win a trifecta when betting horses. Trifecta’s are much harder to hit, so they pay off at much better odds. I’ve seen a trifecta pay anywhere from $15 to over $30,000. If you have a good feeling about two or three horses in a race you can capitalize heavily from playing the trifecta. Lets take a look at the varying types of trifecta wagers.
Straight Trifecta- This wager is “cold” which means you will have only one selection in each spot. For example, I selected the trifecta in the Bing Crosby straight. My selection was 1-4-3 which came in exactly as I thought it would. Lets take a look at a hypothetical situation. 12 horses will be competing in a race. You believe that horse 7 will win, horse 1 will run second, and horse 12 will finish third. Using these three numbers you would play a 7-1-12 straight trifecta.
Trifecta Box- If you box your wager, any of the horses you use can finish first, second, or third. You can box as many horses as you want, but must use at least three for a trifecta. There is no limit to how many horses you box. For example, if you liked Big Brown, Eight Belles, Denis of Cork, and Tale of Ekati in the Kentucky Derby, you could have boxed them in the trifecta. This would have allowed any of the four to finish in any of the top three spots.
Trifecta Wheel- This is an expensive wager, but can pay off handsomely if you can get a long shot. If you wish to wheel a trifecta, you take everybody in one or more of the three spots. You can wheel a horse first, second or third.
Trifecta Part Wheel- If you are able to narrow your choices down, then you want to play a trifecta part wheel. This wager allows you to throw out some horses, thus saving money. For example, you could have played a trifecta part wheel of Colonel John, Mambo In Seattle over Colonel John, Mambo In Seattle and Pyro over Colonel John, Mambo In Seattle and Pyro in the Travers.
Exacta
August 26, 2008
So you’ve figured out that the favorite is likely to win the next horse race, but you also realize that you can’t get much value from a win bet. You could make several moves in this situation, but one of the most profitable and least expensive is to play an exacta. The goal when playing an exacta is to correctly select the first two finishers in the horse race. An exacta can pay anywhere from a few bucks to a few thousand. In some areas an exacta is known as a perfecta. Let’s take a look at some of the various types of exacta wagers and various wagering scenarios.
Straight Exacta- This type of wager involves picking the first two finisher of the race cold, or straight. For example if you had the foresight to know that Colonel John would win the 2008 Travers, and Mambo In Seattle would run second, you could have played a straight exacta 2-9. The wager would cost as little as $2.
Exacta Box- Maybe you weren’t so sure that Colonel John would get his nose down at the last second and win the Travers. Perhaps you thought Mambo In Seattle was getting good at the right time, but didn’t know if he was good enough. In this situation you would want to box the horses. If you box two horses either of one of them can finish first or second and you will still win. You can box as many horses as you want.
Exacta Wheel- Often times I find myself feeling strongly about a horses chances for winning. In this situation I will sometimes wheel the field second in my exacta hoping to catch a long shot. Wheel means that you take the entire field.
Exacta Part Wheel- This is similar to a wheel, but in a part wheel you wont include some horses. For example, I didn’t like Cool Coal Man or Da’ Tara’s chances of running well in the Travers. If I was going to play an exacta part wheel I wouldn’t have used them second, thus saving money on my ticket.
Daily Double
August 26, 2008
Many people are very skilled at picking the winner in a given horse race, but are not quite as adept at figuring out who will run second, third, and fourth. Picking winners will keep your bankroll up, but if you really want to make a killing through betting horses, you will need to hit exotic wagers. Don’t fret, handicappers came across this problem long ago. They solved it by creating the daily double.
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The daily double is a wager in which you must select the winner of two consecutive winners. The daily double almost always pays off at higher odds, due to its increased difficulty. Although the daily double was originally created for the first two races, most tracks now have what is called a “rolling” double. This means there is a double wager offered on every race, except for the last. Daily double wagers are often offered on two specific races, such as the Kentucky “Oaks-Derby” Double. Nearly all racetracks also offer what is called the “late” double. This is offered on the final two races of the day.
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Why not just play a parlay you ask? Well I don’t know about you, but I can only stand the track dipping into my winnings once. With the daily double, the track only gets a cut once. If you parlay you are allowing the track to join in on your victory twice. This doesn’t sound like much, but it will save you hundreds and maybe thousands of dollars in the long run. So remember, if you want to double your winnings, the daily double is for you!
Weekend Recap
August 25, 2008
Eoin Harty trained Colonel John reigned victorious in the Travers.
Saturday witnessed the emergence of four Breeders Cup Classic contenders. Colonel John, and Mambo In Seattle proved they are the top three year old colts in the Travers, while Go Between and Well Armed showed us they are among the top older horses. I was especially impressed by the hard charging Mambo In Seattle.
Although I did give the colt his due, I didn’t expect him to run nearly as good as he did. Regally bred, he is from the sire Kingmambo and his broodmare is a full sister to AP Indy. Mambo In Seattle is getting good when it counts. Despite coming just short in the Travers, he has a proven ability to fight back after defeating You And I Forever in the Henry Walton Stakes after being passed in the stretch.
Trainer Neil Howard finished a close second in last years edition of the Travers with Grasshopper, and should have no problem furthering this colts career. Jockey Robby Albarado gave him an excellent ride and has plenty of Breeders Cup experience, winning the Breeders Cup Classic aboard Curlin last year. He should stay aboard Mambo In Seattle, as Curlin is not likely to race in the Breeders Cup Classic.
I think I did an above average job handicapping the races this weekend. I had the winner in the Personal Ensign and Ballston Spa Handicap, and although I didn’t get the winner in the Pacific Classic, I gave out winning exacta and trifecta plays. The exacta returned $68, while the trifecta was a quite a bit larger coming home at $328.
The Super Derby and Jockey Club Gold Cup have both been mentioned as the potential next race for Mambo In Seattle. Trainer Eoin Harty says Colonel John’s next start hasn’t been determined, but his ultimate goal is the Breeders Cup Classic. One thing is for sure- these three year olds are better than we thought.