May 18, 2012

Take Your Time!

This weekend was pretty good for me as a handicapper. I started the weekend with a deposit of $150, and ended up withdrawing $205, after my balance went as high as $400. Despite the success I had, one glaring mistakes cost me hundreds of dollars. I’ll give you an overview, and hopefully you can learn from my stupidity.

The mistake was a result of rushing, and trying to handicap too fast. After seeing that Indian Blessing had been scratched from the Ruffian Handicap, I thought this left the race ripe for Little Belle’s picking. Believing  I could turn a quick and easy profit in this race, I played my trifecta and set up a couple of Pick 3’s.  If I was taking my time, and handicapping thoughtfully, I would have realized that Bob Baffert, the trainer of Indian Blessing, also had Tough Tiz’s Sis in the race. She had recently finished second behind the undefeated Zenyatta.

The race commenced, and Little Belle nor my second choice, Spring Waltz were anywhere to be found. Tough Tiz’s Sis won the race emphatically. She went off at a great price of 4-1, and had I included her on top, I would’ve had the trifecta which paid $299. Whats more, I didn’t use her on my Pick 3. This costly mistake could’ve been avoided if only I had taken my time. So remember, don’t rush and let things come to you.

Ruffian Handicap & Northern Dancer Turf Stakes

Grade 1 Ruffian Handicap

Bob Baffert’s champion filly Indian Blessing will be the morning line favorite in this event. She will take another shot at routing after two easy wins sprinting. She has learned to rate with John Velazquez aboard, making her even more lethal than before. Despite how good she is, I am going to look in another direction. My top choice will be the A.P. Indy filly, Little Belle. She is optimal at this 1 1/16 distance,  and is coming off a nice third place finish behind Music Note and Proud Spell. Potential up setters include Stage Luck and Spring Waltz.
1st- Little Belle (8-1)
2nd- Spring Waltz (5-2)
3rd- Indian Blessing (7-5)

Plays:$2 Trifecta (1,4,5/1,3,4,5,7/1,3,4,5,7)

Grade 1 Northern Dancer Turf Stakes

Frost Giant, winner of the Suburban Handicap last out, will be my top selection. He has enough early speed to stay close, and being a son of Giant’s Causeway he wont have a problem with the distance. European invader Quijano will also be tough. He finished only three lengths behind top European runner, Archipenko. Bobby Frankel’s  Champs Elysees could get it done as a long shot.  I expect him to round back into form after two bad races.
1st- Frost Giant
2nd- Quijano
3rd- Champs Elysees

Plays: $2 Trifecta (2,3,4/2,3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6,10)

Grade 1 Garden City Stakes Preview

Grade 1 Garden City Stakes
#2 Raw Silk- Alan Garcia decided to give stalking a try last out, and finished third. He has since been replaced by Edgar Prado. You can expect the Peruvian rider to have this filly back on the lead. Her last win came in the Grade 2 Sands Point in which she wired the field. While this is a nice filly, the competition is deep. Use her on the bottom part of trifecta and superfecta tickets.

#3 My Princess Jess- Winner of three in a row from the barn of Barclay Tagg. The regular jock for the barn, Eibar Coa, will be in the irons. Coa should have her moving well late. She wont be contentious for the win, but could hit the board.

#4 Alwajeeha- From the McLaughlin barn with John Velazquez piloting. Yielded late to My Princess Jess last out. Her early speed should put her in contention, but not for long. I’m not wild about the chances of this filly.

#4 Backseat Rhythm- Was the beneficiary of a yielding track in her win last out. She closed from well back, and won going away. I don’t like this filly to begin with, and it doesn’t look like the speed will be there to set up for her. I’m going to throw her out.

#1 Pure Clan- Impressive winner of the American Oaks last out. She was a standout leading up to the Kentucky Oaks, and finished third in that race. She looks to be leaps and bounds better than this field. I will key her first on all of my exotic tickets.

#6 Shaker- European filly is quite a mystery. She doesn’t look overly impressive on paper, but I would hate to get beat by her. I encourage you to use her on the bottom part of my trifectas and superfectas if you like her.

#1A Ariege- Garcia will give up the mount on Raw Silk to ride this Santa Anita Oaks winner. She hasn’t lost in two starts since that win. Robert Frankel as the trainer is always a good sign. Expect her to lay mid pack and come with a ton of run late. She will be Pure Clan’s main rival.

#7 Satan’s Circus- Surprised everyone when finishing second to Pure Clan two back in her US debut. She bounced off that race, finishing fourth as the favorite. You can expect her to come back strong today. Use her in all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.

#8 Country Star- (Main Track Only)

#9 Senior Rita Lady- (Main Track Only)

1st- Pure Clan
2nd- Ariege
3rd- Raw Silk

Plays:
$2 Exacta (1/ALL)
$2 Trifecta (1/2,3,7/2,3,6,7,)

Why Big Brown Will Beat Curlin

It looks as if the highly anticipated Curlin vs. Big Brown match up will take place in the Breeders Cup Classic. While the Classic has been the goal for IEAH and Big Brown all along, Curlin and company have only recently given a title defense some serious thought. Many of the friends at the track, and fellow bloggers believe Curlin would deliver quite a thrashing to Big Brown. I’m not so sure. Allow me to explain.

Both horses were dull last time out. Big Brown ran down Coal Play in the late stages of the Haskell, but should’ve won but quite a bit more than he did. Curlin was also a step slow winning the Woodward. The horse he beat was better than his odds would have led you to believe at 40-1, but Curlin still should’ve demolished him.

I can find an excuse for Big Brown, but not for Curlin, the reigning horse of the year. Big Brown was recovering from a grueling Triple Crown campaign and had every reason to give it up, but he dug deep and swept past Coal Play. You can expect him to come back even stronger next time.

Like the champion that he is, Curlin won the Woodward after some urging from Albarado. Unlike Big Brown, he didn’t have a reason not to blast past the colt. Perhaps he just had a bad race, but I think this could be the beginning of the end for Curlin. He doesn’t have the bulletproof aura that he had earlier this year, and he is vulnerable.

I found his loss to Breeders Cup Turf winner Red Rocks discouraging.  Although Red Rocks is a good horse, he is nothing compared to the top turf runners in Europe. Why does this matter? Curlin was being considered for the Arc. If he couldn’t beat Red Rocks, he would’ve been destroyed in Europe.

Big Brown has every reason to improve and surpass Curlin. Lets not forget this is a colt who won the Kentucky Derby easy after going wide the entire trip. He won the Preakness with ease, before being taken out of his element in the Belmont and suffering his first defeat. If he was this good so early in the year, and as lightly raced as he is, how good will he be come time for the Classic?

One the greatest advantages Big Brown holds over Curlin is his tactical speed. Desormeaux can place Big Brown wherever he likes, while Curlin is traditionally a closer. Traffic can arise at any moment, and Curlin is more susceptible. Another, even greater advantage Big Brown holds over Curlin is his heart. While Curlin is no quitter, and has a great heart of his own, Big Brown is more determined. Curlin relented to a filly in the Belmont. Big Brown could’ve just quit in the Haskell, but he bore down and won the race. You can only attribute that to his will to win.

In closing, please don’t mistake my respect for Curlin. I bet him heavily in last years Classic as the fourth choice, and I have always thought him to be one of the greatest horses of all time. He is even featured as the third horse in my banner, because he is one of my favorite horses. His legacy speaks for itself. This race will be one for the ages if it takes place. It is my hope that both of these magnificent colts will be neck and neck down the stretch. While I believe Big Brown will come out on top, I hope the best colt wins- Curlin or Big Brown.

Labor Day Review

Labor Day came and went like a flash, and it brought with it an excellent day of racing. Night Action, who I nearly dismissed, went on to win the Cradle Stakes in wire to wire fashion. I’m still scratching my head on that one, but congratulations to trainer Michael Maker and jockey Victor Lebron. Today was the final day of the River Downs meet, and the final day of my internship which began in May. I was able to meet some cool people, including Chris McCarron. I also made some new friends, and some new industry connections. I’m sad that it is over, but all good things must come to an end.

The Hopeful was very dramatic as could be expected. My top choice was Cribnote, who blew the turn and still charged home like a freight train to finish second. The winner was Vineyard Haven, who I had tabbed as my top choice in the Sanford Stakes. Unfortunately I hopped off the train at bit too soon. He ended up going off at 9-1.

Anak Nakal ran them all down in the Pennsylvania to notch his first win since he took the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club as a two-year-old. The Nick Zito trainee paid $34.60 to win. The colt looked like a has been, but apparently he isn’t finished running yet. Rick Dutrow’s Acai finished second as part of the mutual field which included three horses. Smooth Air would run third as the 4-1 favorite.

I’d also like to note that this is my one hundredth post since switching to Word Press in early 2008. Thanks for reading and supporting me along the way. I am going to continue to forge ahead and provide you with the same quality articles I always have. Thanks for visiting!

Pennsylvania & Hopeful Stakes

The $1,000,000 Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby drew a very competitive field of fourteen. Ohio Derby winner Smooth Air has been tabbed as the lukewarm favorite at 7/2. Racing from the 6 hole he is going to be tough to beat. He has plenty of tactical speed, and an affinity for the distance. His main competition will come from California invader, Two Step Salsa.  He looks to be the only speed in the race. Power Game and You And I Forever are viable long shots. Power Game is an undefeated son of Dixie Union and a Claude McGaughey trainee. He won easy first time out, drawing off by eight lengths. Power Game then took a NW2 event by four lengths after racing four wide. The sky is the limit for this colt, and at 20-1 you have to like him. You And I Forever lost to Mambo In Seattle last out, who would go on to finish second by a nose in the Travers. 15-1 is a great price on this son of AP Indy and Bill Mott trainee.

1st- Smooth Air (7/2)
2nd- You And I Forever (15-1)
3rd- Two Step Salsa (9/2)

Plays:

$1 Trifecta (6,7,10,11/4,6,7,10,11/2,4,6,7,10,11,12)

Play with SBG Global, and recieve a 30% signup bonus!

You can go a number of ways in the $200,000 Grade 2 Hopeful Stakes. Munnings, a son of Speighstown, is the 5/2 morning line favorite. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Munnings broke his maiden in wire to wire fashion first time out at Saratoga. Cribnote has been tabbed at 7/2 after thrashing a maiden field by thirteen lengths. He has fired a 1/51 five furlong move in :59 3/5 H since that race. Grade 2 winner Desert Party has been placed at 6-1. A son of Street Cry, and a Eoin Harty trainee, Desert Party offers the best value in the race.

1st- Cribnote (7/2)
2nd- Desert Party (6-1)
3rd- Vineyard Haven (12-1)

Plays: $2 Trifecta (2,8/2,4,5,8/1,2,4,6,7,8)

Click here to read an in depth analysis of the $200,000 Miller Lite Cradle Stakes!