The Weekend That Wasn’t

I was incredibly dissapointed with the Breeders Cup this year. The synthetic surface had a severe and pronounced effect on the outcome of the races. This is my number one complaint.  I was also dissapointed with the performance of our American horses. The Europeans made us look BAD. They took 5 of 9 races on Saturday, and finished second 4 times.  I hated watching the seemingly bulletproof Curlin shorten stride in the stretch.

 We will have to endure another year at Santa Anita, but thankfully the series will be returning to Churchill Downs in 2010. That day can’t come soon enough. On a final note, don’t mistake how I feel about Santa Anita. I LOVE the place and I can’t wait to see it in person.

Like I said previously, I absolutely HATE how the Europeans dominated the series. Our horses are better than they ran. Imagine how well we would’ve done if we didn’t retire horses before their prime. Horses like Bernardini, Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Citronnade would’ve surely been top choices had they been left in training and held their form.

I believe had the Breeders Cup taken place on a dirt surface, Curlin would’ve won. Watching him lose this race was like watching your favorite team go down in the Super Bowl. I hope he stays in training long enough to go out on a winning note. I’m sure he will be just as prolific in the shed as he was on the track.

In the end I’m a horse racing fan regardless of what happens. These things just bugged me a little bit and I wanted to get them off my chest.  Feel free to leave a comment and let me know what you think. I don’t know about you, but I’m already counting down the days until the Kentucky Derby!

*This post was guest blogged by a friend of mine. It contained an error that has since been fixed.

Breeders Cup Classic Preview

Curlin is the horse who needs no introduction. Winner of races such as the Breeders Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, and Stephen Foster Handicap, Curlin will probably be racing for the last time in his career. If you ever play video games, then you are familiar with the concept of the final boss.  The purpose of the final boss is to test the skills one has accumulated. The final stage has arrived for Curlin. His place in history is already cemented, but with a repeat win in the Breeders Cup Classic he can go out on top. He must first overcome the final boss.

Who will play the role of the final boss? That depends on who you ask. I personally believe that the Bill Mott trained Go Between will provide the best competition for the reigning Horse of the Year. From six starts on synthetic surfaces, Go Between has three wins and three second place finishes. His year finally came together in his last start, the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. He rallied pass Well Armed to win that race by a neck. Well Armed would return to win the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes, and is the favorite in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile.

The son of Point Given is going to need some help from the early pacesetters and will have to avoid traffic. Jockey Garrett Gomez can and will make things happen for this horse. As I said for Grand Couturier in the Breeders Cup Turf, I also believe Go Between is set to peak in this race. The question is this; will his best be good enough?

Others will look to Japanese sensation Casino Drive. He has been bulletproof in his three career starts, but the 92 ESF in his last race is a bit worrisome. The potential is there, but for all intents and purposes, this colt is an unknown commodity. I won’t be surprised regardless of how he runs. If you do support this colt, 10-1 is a great price.

Henrythenavigator will be shipping from across the pond for his first start on the dirt. Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be using lasix for the first time in Henrythenavigators career. To the best of my knowledge lasix isn’t permitted in Europe, so this could effect his performance in a positive way. With five Grade 1 wins this year he definitely has the class to be the final boss.

I doubt Curlin will go down on Saturday. The only thing he has to do is take to the surface and the race is his. That could be a problem, because he usually does things better the second time. If he does conquer the final boss, and is consequently retired, he will likely be remembered as the greatest horse since Spectacular Bid, and rightfully so. Go get ‘em Curlin!

**Please check back tomorrow for live blogging from the beginning of the Breeders Cup racing at 3:35 EST until the conclusion of the event later in the day. We can communicate through the comments feature and I will share my bets and thoughts with you. I also hope to hear your opinions.

Breeders Cup Turf Preview

In the year 2001 trainer Aidan O’Brien campaigned the magnificent Galileo for the owner combination of Michael Tabor and Sue Magnier. They would win 6 of 8 races with the colt, including the Irish and Epsom Derbies. Galileo’s career ended disappointingly as he was well beaten in the Breeders Cup Classic in his last start. Seven years later, Aidan O’Brien, Micheal Tabor, and Sue Magnier have returned with one of Galileo’s finest sons to tackle the Breeders Cup Turf. They have returned with Solder Of Fortune.

Ridden by Johnny Murtagh, Solder Of Fortune was a dominating victor in the Irish Derby last year, taking the race by nine lengths. His best performance this year was a third place finish behind the undefeated Zarkava in Europe’s greatest race, the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe. Solder Of Fortune tends to race midpack and make a winning move late. He has raced almost exclusively in Grade 1 company. On the strength of his third place finish in the Arc, he has been installed the 7/2 morning line favorite. Historically speaking, horses coming out of the Arc do not run well in the Breeders Cup. I’ll be looking elsewhere for my top selection.

Grand Couturier will be racing in the Breeders Cup Turf for the second consecutive year. He is much more seasoned and probably twice as good this time around. In his latest race he delivered a thrashing to a very good field in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational. He beat the likes of Strike A Deal, Dancing Forever, and Proudinsky as he powered home to win by ten lengths under a hand ride from Alan Garcia. That win earned him an ESF of 109, the highest of his career.

I love Grand Couturier’s flexible running style. He has the ability to lay right behind the stalkers or close from last. With a record of four wins from seven starts at the distance, the son of Grand Lodge is among  the best turf routers in the world. I believe he is set to peak in this race. If he runs like he did in the Turf Classic Invitational, its all over but the crying. Grand Couturier is my top selection for the Breeders Cup Turf.

Two former winners, Better Talk Now, and Red Rocks will give it another shot this year. Trainer Graham Motion said Better Talk Now is working “better than he usually does” at the ripe old age of nine. If he makes it to the starting gate he will tie Kona Gold and Perfect Drift for the most Breeders Cup starts by a single horse at five. He will also tie John’s Call and Bet On Sunshine as the oldest horse to compete in the Breeders Cup. Red Rocks enters the Breeders Cup Turf after a win over Curlin in the Grade 1 Man O’War. He missed a race due to a slight injury, but should be in mint condition by the time the starting bell rings.

I feel very strongly about Grand Couturier’s chances in this race. He has really come to life in his last two starts, and he looks like a different horse, a better horse. If something should go awry, then Out Of Control may be able to capitalize. He enters this race after a strong second place finish to Red Giant in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch. The combination of Garrett Gomez and Robert Frankel is one of the best around. Regardless of who  you end up going with, good luck and thanks for reading!

Breeders Cup Mile Preview

Kip Deville is thinking its good to be king. His connections are thinking the same, but for how much longer? I can’t answer that, but I will say the reigning Breeders Cup Mile winner has an excellent shot at repeating. His stalking style suit’s the race perfectly. He can lay right off Daytona’s flank and move by him whenever he pleases. The only question is will the Kip Deville from last months Woodbine Mile show up, or will the blazing fast Kip Deville from the Makers Mark Mile be present? I’m willing to go with the latter.

The three-year-old filly Goldikova should provide the best competition. She enters this race after a win over the boys in the Grade 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp in France. She beat Breeders Cup Classic contender Henrythenavigator in that race, and earned a Racing Post Rating of 123. Goldikova should lay close to the speed. I love her ascending Racing Post Rating pattern. If she moves forward yet again, she could be unstoppable.

John Sadler’s four-year-old colt Whatsthescript is finally living up to his potential this year. He has two Grade 2 wins in three starts this year, along with a second place finish in the Grade 1 Eddie Read Handicap. Whatsthescript earned a monstrous 107 BSF in his last win, the Del Mar Mile Handicap. The son of Royal Applause will be closing from the back of the pack, and has plenty of pace to help his cause. Whatsthescript is one to watch in the Breeders Cup Mile.

Thorn Song and Daytona figure to buck heads for the lead. Daytona was seemingly invincible earlier this year, before slowing down of late. He may have to resort to the stalking style we saw in his Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile win. Thorn Song latest race was a win in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. Trainer Dale Romans will have him ready to go, but I question whether or not he is good enough.

Bobby Frankel has his five-year-old mare Precious Kitten entered in the Breeders Cup Mile for her first try against the boys. She is a multiple Grade 1 winner against her own sex this year, but racing against males will be a whole different ball game. Precious Kitten should rate just off the pace, and if she runs as usual she will have a furious run late. I can’t criticize Bobby Frankel for her putting her here, he is one of the best trainers in the business.

Its tough to say who will come out on top in the Breeders Cup Mile. Kip Deville and Goldikova are clearly the best in the field. I’d say its extremely likely that one of those two take the top prize. I’ll lean towards Kip Deville taking the cake for the second consecutive year. I love the fact that he has won at Santa Anita. There is no telling how Goldikova will handle this turf course. Regardless of the outcome, this is going to be a fun race to watch!

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile Preview

It’s hard to look past Well Armed in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He looks like a different horse since his trip to Dubai, where he finished third in the Dubai World Cup behind Curlin. Since that race he has faced only top competition.  Well Armed counts the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap, and Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes as his best wins this year. He also owns a second place finish in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic.  The Eoin Harty trainee beat Heatseeker earlier this year, who has since been retired.

Well Armed was given a BSF of 105 for his win in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes. That number is higher than any other horse in the field has ran in their career. He has finished off the board only once in eight starts over synthetic surfaces. Jockey Aaron Gryder can go to the lead with Well Armed, or stalk the pace. I expect him to command the early lead.

Lewis Michael is a full brother to Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Dreaming of Anna. If he can get the job done in this race, they would become (as far as I know) the only full siblings to both win a Breeders Cup race. Lewis Micheal will enter the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile on the strength of his win in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Handicap. He won by two and three quarters of a length on his way to a 102 BSF.

This race is perfect for Pyro. I’ve always believed the son of Pulpit was better at 1 1/16 miles or less. His best wins this year are the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and Grade 3 Northern Dancer. In both races he was closer to the pace then usual. Jockey Shaun Bridgmahon may want to give that style a try again. The only concern with Pyro is his tenth place finish in the Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes, his only synthetic start.

Mast Track was supposed to be sidelined with a quarter crack, but trainer, breeder, owner Robert Frankel has decided to run. He says the injury isn’t as bad as he was told. Mast Track’s best win this year came in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup where he was the lone speed. I liked his chances prior to learning of the quarter crack, but I can’t support him knowing he is hurt, even if only slightly.

Winning the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile would the perfect way to cap Surf Cat’s lengthy career.  He has won six Grade 2 events throughout his career, but hasn’t been able to transfer that form up to the Grade 1 level. The distance and surface fit him perfectly. The odds are against him, but he is my sentimental pick.

Breeders Cup Marathon Preview

If your goal is to claim victory in the Breeders Cup Marathon, you had better have plenty of stamina. Zappa has never had a problem in that department.  He blew the field away when he won the Cougar II Handicap by six lengths earlier this year en route to a 102 BSF.  Zappa would then go on to put in a respectable fourth place finish in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. He also owns a win at 1 3/8 miles on the turf. From the barn of John Sadler, distance will be no problem for Zappa.

Fairbanks, a five-year-old son of Giant’s Causeway is finally starting to live up to the hype. His latest win came in the 1 ¼ miles Hawthorne Gold Cup. He stopped the clock in the mediocre time of 2:04 2/5 over a fast track, earning a 104 BSF. Fairbanks has never raced over a synthetic, but has been working well at Santa Anita. Todd Pletcher will have him cranked and ready to run.

European star, Sixties Icon will be contentious. He drew clear to win by two and one quarters lengths in his last start at 1 ½ miles on the turf. The win was especially impressive because he missed the break. His sire, Galileo, was a great router. His last two Racing Post Ratings of 117 put him near the top of this field.

Delightful Kiss was referred to as an “ornery rascal” by trainer Pete Anderson earlier this week. I’m sure he is more than willing to put up with his antics after he has reeled off two consecutive Grade 3 wins.  Those two wins are his only starts on synthetic surfaces, making him a perfect two for two. Of the two wins, the All American was more impressive. He swung five wide on his way to a one length victory and a 99 BSF.

Out of all the horses I mentioned, Delightful Kiss seems to have the most upside. He has been working and racing lights out over synthetic surfaces. I also like Zappa on the strength of his performance in the Cougar II Handicap. The field for this race isn’t much, and one thing is for sure- the inaugural running of the Breeders Cup Marathon will be one to forget.

Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Ladies Classic Preview

The Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf field has its fair share of European invaders. Among them, Halfway To Heaven looks like she should be all the way to the winners circle. The three-year-old daughter of Pivotal has been phenomenal this year. Among her wins are the Grade 1 Irish Guineas, Grade 1 Matron Stakes, and the Grade 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. She also owns a third place finish to the undefeated Arc winner, Zarkava.

From the barn of trainer Aidan O’Brien, and super owner Michael Tabor, Halfway To Heaven can stalk the pace or take the lead early on. Her latest win in the Sun Chariot Stakes earned her a 118 Racing Post Rating, the largest of her career. If she can handle the Santa Anita turf course, she is going to be hard to beat.

If a horse for course suits you, look no further than Wait A While.  She is a perfect three for three on the Santa Anita turf course. She also owns three wins from four starts at the distance. Sired by the late Maria’s Mon she has the stamina to run all day long. She is versatile enough to win on the lead, stalking the pace, or closing from midpack. She will be entering the race on the strength of a win in the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon. Rest assured, Todd Pletcher will make sure she leaves everything on the track.

Other appealing entries include Dynaforce, and Mauralakana. From the barn of Bill Mott, Dynaforce finally put all the pieces together in her fourth start in the U.S. as she drew off to a powerful victory in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational. Mauralakana’s best victory came in the Grade 1 Beverely D Handicap in which she earned a 105 BSF.

As for the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic, it is going to take something special to beat Zenyatta. The daughter of Street Cry should probably be in the Breeders Cup Classic. She is a perfect eight for eight, and is the only filly with a win over the new Pro-Ride surface. Trainer John Sheriffs and jockey Mike Smith have a once in a lifetime filly on their hands in Zenyatta.

Should Zenyatta have an off day and manage to lose this race, the rest of field is fairly balanced. Music Note hasn’t faced older foes yet, but has three Grade 1 wins over her own age group this year. She won the Grade 1 Gazelle with ease last out even after breaking through the starting gate prior to the commencement of the race. From my favorite sire, A.P. Indy, her best BSF of 101 came in the Alabama where she was out dueled by Proud Spell.

Defending Breeders Cup Distaff winner Ginger Punch should also bring her “A” game. She has been dominant this year, and will enter this race off a loss, as she did last year. Her best win this year was a seven length romp in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap. Ginger Punch will have the services of my favorite jockey, Rafeal Bejarano.

UAE Oaks winner, Cocoa Beach enters the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic after winning the Grade 1 Beldame. She has only two losses from ten career starts, and one of those losses came in the UAE Derby against the boys, where she finished third. Cocoa Beach will undoubtedly make things interesting. Be sure to tune in Friday and watch these talented fillies duke it out on the track!

Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies & Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

I’m hesitant to make a pick in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies due to the fact that so many fillies have been entered in each race. It’s a bit difficult to determine who will end up where. There will be a good filly or two left out of these races, but that is the nature of the competition in the Breeders Cup.

In the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, I’m leaning toward Sugar Mom. Trained by Wayne Catalano, her most recent performance was a win in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies. She rallied from far back in that race, hitting the stretch 5 wide. Prior to that win she was much the best in an allowance at Arlington Park. Post positions along with who else draws in the race will influence my final pick, but for now Sugar Mom is the one.

I also like Laragh and C Karma. The former won the Jessamine at Keeneland in wire to wire fashion. She would be my top pick, but the fact that she is going to be racing on 16 days rest concerns me. I expect her to be short. C Karma won the Grade 3 Natalma in her last start. She has since breezed 5 furlongs in :59 flat, and looks to be coming into her own.

The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies appears to be a race between Grade 1 Frizette winner, Sky Diva, and Grade 1 Oak Leaf winner, Stardom Bound. Both fillies will be moving late and it looks like they will have plenty of pace to chase. I’m going to give the edge to Sky Diva. I love her pedigree, and she has yet to lose in two races. My only concern is the fact that she hasn’t raced over a synthetic surface.

Stardom Bound on the other hand, is a multiple Grade 1 winner on the surface. Her turn of foot is amazing, and she will almost surely hit the board. The connections have said they plan to sell her after this race regardless of the outcome.

Another filly to look at is C.S. Silk. She won the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes by 6 lengths for trainer Dale Romans in her last start. Her front running style is a bit of a concern, as she will probably tangle with other speed horses. If she can revert to the rating style she showed in her Churchill Downs allowance win then she is in with a chance.

Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Preview

The second running of the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint will be much better than the last. Last years winner, Maryfield, has since been retired, but runner up Miraculous Miss will seek to take the top prize this time around. Indian Blessing, winner of the 2007 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies is also entered. The lightly raced Zaftig will also seek to add this win to her resume which includes only six races, this one included. Ventura finished second in the Woodbine Mile against the boys last out, and will also vie for the title in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

As can be expected in just about any sprint race, this event is loaded with speed. There is no telling who
will get the lead, but you can expect to see Dearest Tricksi, Dream Rush, and Indyanne all on front end. A speed duel will almost undoubtedly take place. If I had to guess who will come out on top, I would take Dream Rush based off of her 43 2/5 half mile fraction last in the Presque Isle Downs Masters. I expect all three of these fillies to fade.

Indian Blessing should be making her move midway through the race. Her move is different than 90% of horses out there. It is a monstrous kick for home, and has only failed her twice in ten starts. When she strikes the lead she will have the task of holding off Zaftig, something she wasn’t able to do earlier this year. Zaftig moved by ‘Blessing like she was standing still in that race, drawing off by 4 lengths even though her jockey lost the whip. This will be her first race since that win, and if she runs anything like she did that day there is no beating her.

Ventura will likely be in the mix late. Her only start on a synthetic surface resulted in a powerful victory as she charged home seven wide to take the Grade 2 Madison at Keeneland. Intangaroo is another viable choice. She hasn’t been met with much fanfare, but the daughter of Orientate has won four Grade 1 races this year. Her best win came last out in the Grade 1 Ballinera where she ran six wide and ended up winning by two lengths.

My top pick is going to be Zaftig. I love her pedigree, Gone West is one of the best sire of sprinters. The distance suits her well. Two of her three wins came at this seven furlongs distance, and the other came at eight furlongs. Her closing style should be beneficial as the race has tons of speed. As I previously stated, if her last race is any indication she should wipe this field out. I’ll look to Indian Blessing to finish second. She has been even more lethal since learning to rate. Ventura also looks tough. She has been great this year, and her trainer Bobby Frankel makes her all the more dangerous. I’m confident one of these three fillies will take the top prize in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Breeders Cup Pre-Entries & Race Order

Finally, at long last the pre-entries for the 2008 edition of the Breeders Cup World Championships are in! Click here to look at them. Curlin is obviously the top entry, but European heavyweights Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator have also been entered. As always you can expect an in depth analysis of every race. I’m going to start with Friday’s races and cover them in order. Check back later today for my take on the Filly & Mare Sprint.

The race order is also in and is as follows:

Championship Friday - October 24

$1 million Sentient Flight Group Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
$1 million Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
$2 million Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. 1)
$2 million Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I)
$2 million Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (gr. I)
Las Palmas Handicap (gr. II)

Championship Saturday - October 25

$500,000 Breeders’ Cup Marathon
$1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
$1 million TVG Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
$2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I)
$2 million Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
$1 million Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
$2 million Sentient Flight Group Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. 1)
$3 million Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. I)
$5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I)
Damascus Stakes
Oak Tree Derby (gr. II)

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