Let me start off by making one thing clear. The Malibu Stakes is not an easy one from a handicapping perspective. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a race as truly balanced as this one. Entrants range from Travers winner Colonel John, CashCall Futurity winner Into Mischief, and Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner Nownownow.
The seven furlong distance, which I’ve heard people refer to as the “Devil’s Distance” further complicates the situation. It’s not long enough to give a router like Colonel John a clear advantage, and its not short enough for Bob Black Jack, the six furlong world record holder, to easily take them wire to wire.
Georgie Boy is the only Grade 1 winner at the distance, taking the Del Mar Futurity. The gelded son of Tribal Rule enters the race after a second place to Into Mischief in the Damascus Stakes. Both horses were racing for the first time in over six months. Into Mischief took the race quite easily, so I’m going to eliminate Georgie Boy as a potential winner.
On the other hand, Into Mischief looks very tough, and has been tabbed the 2/1 ML favorite. This will likely be his last race according to owner B Wayne Hughes, so I expect them to “bring it”. He will be retired to Hughes stud farm where he will stand for a fee of $12,500. Winning this one would certainly attract some mares!
Eoin Harty says Colonel John shouldn’t have any problems. He expects the son of Tiznow to run well. This is typical of him, as he said the same thing prior to both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders Cup Classic. I can’t blame the guy for being optimistic, but from handicapping standpoint we can disregard this. He is lethal at distances over a mile, but I don’t know how he will fare shortening up to seven furlongs. I’m going to look elsewhere, but I would certainly include him on my exotic tickets.
My top selection will be the speedy Bob Black Jack. He is a bonefied front runner and may have things his own way on the front end. His best performance this year came in the SunShine Millions Dash, where he shattered the six furlong world record, stopping the clock in a stunning 1:06 2/5. He also put in a strong effort when finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby. Let’s hope Bob Black Jack runs them off their feet at 9/2.
Gradedstakes.com Social Media