I always love to see three-year-olds going the 1 1/8 miles distance early in the year. These races usually give some indication of how the colt may fare on the Kentucky Derby trail. You can always count on Gulfstream Park to card allowance races at this distance. They’ve got two of these races on Thursday (races 6 and 8), and both are filled with excellent colts.

The first race is headlined by Atomic Rain who was most recently second to division leader Old Fashioned in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. I wouldn’t put much stock in that, because Old Fashioned finished seven lengths in front of him, and couldn’t have won any easier. He is a son of Smart Strike, so his pedigree is stellar. One of my favorite jockeys, John Velasquez, will be picking up the mount. I don’t know how much an impact this one will have down the road, but he is definitely in with a shot this time.

My top pick will be the Mike Maker trained Pressure Point. His lone start was a front running victory in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He stopped the clock in 1:23 4/5 for seven furlong on the dirt. Pressure Point is a son of 2001 Horse of the Year, Point Given. I like his front running style, and the jockey-trainer combo of Leparoux and Maker has been lethal recently.

The second race isn’t as competitive, but does have some nice horses. Perhaps the most interesting is Idol Maker, a son of Empire Maker. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he was most recently a distant fourth in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. His pedigree is crazy good, and he could improve with time and maturity.

I’ll take Danger To Society as my choice to win. The $300k auction purchase is a perfect 1 for 1, scoring a maiden win at Churchill Downs in November. He rallied wide in that race and drew clear by 1 1/2 lengths. Ken McPeek trained his sire, Harlan’s Holiday, to victories in the Florida Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. Hopefully we see one of the aforementioned horses in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby!

I’ve played the Pick 6 on many occasions throughout my wagering career, but so far I’ve only been able to hit 5 out of 6 races. I’ve been alive to huge amounts in the last leg, but haven’t been able to hammer down the final race. Most of the time I will play a small ticket under $20, so I am kind of proud of my Pick 6 skills. Santa Anita has a carryover of $143,011, and most of the races will be full fields. It wont be easy and I would consider getting 4 races a moral victory, but I’m going to take a crack at this one.

Race 4: This one is a maiden event at 6.5 furlong on the downhill turf course. I usually look for horses who have had a trip over the course, but none of these maidens have ran on the Santa Anita turf thus far. Lunar Humor is shipping in to SA after debuting second at Churchill Downs. He is a son of Distorted Humor, so he should enjoy the grass. The 1st and 2nd place finishers out of that race returned to win. I can’t pass him up at 12-1. I’ll also use the favorite, along with the Frankel horse. (1,2,10)

Race 5: Another tough race. I’ll go ahead and hope for the best by singling Evaluate, the 7/2 ML favorite. He is trained by Bob Baffert and Garrett Gomez will be aboard for the first time. He has been running respectable races in allowance company so a drop to NW2 claiming could be just what the doctor ordered. (10)

Race 6: Spinning Yarns may be a statebred runner, but he looks like the only speed. I’ll include him at 10-1, and throw in Gomez and Bejarano’s mounts. (5,7,10)

Race 7: Onebadkitty has been running against Cal breds, but hasn’t finished worse than second in five career starts. Cool Haleigh also looks formidable. (3,5)

Race 8: I’ll take Lethal Heat and La Tee in the Grade 3 Monrovia Handicap. It’s a competitive field, but I’m confident one of these two can get it done. (1,3)

Race 9: If by some miracle I’m still alive at this point, I’ll hope Joel Rosario and Doug O’Neil can get it done on Lil Legal Linda. (6)

Ticket: 1,2,10/10/5,7,10/3,5/1,3/6

This sequence is very tough and every race seems wide open. I predict the Pick 6 will carryover again.

Good luck!

The Grade 3 Old  Hat Stakes at Gulfstream Park is shaping up to be quite the race. Contested at the six furlong distance, this one is for three-year-old fillies. I’m not 100% sure but I think Dream Rush won this race back in 2007. The only reason I remember is because she dealt two-year-old champion Dreaming of Anna her first loss and I believe the Old Hat was the race she did it in.

Frolic’s Dream is the likely favorite. She is a perfect 3-for-3 with a maiden win, and two minor stakes victories at Calder Race Course. Her last two wins were in powerful fashion and on the front end. The daughter of Smoke Glacken is trained by Martin Wolfson, and will be piloted by Jermaine Bridgmahon. The Florida bred filly will have home field advantage, but should catch pressure on the lead. This will be her first time racing in nearly two months, so she is susceptible to a bounce. Bettors should look for atleast 5/2, but probably won’t get it.

Elusive Heat has an excellent sprinting pedigree. She is sired by Elusive Quality, and has Dixieland Band on the mares side. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, she was purchased last year for $750k. Although she has just one race, she looks destined to win a graded event sooner rather than later. Racing at Belmont Park, she covered 5 1/2 furlings in 1:03 1/5, while blasting a half mile in :44 4/5, and hitting the five furlong pole in :56 4/5. Elusive Heat earned a massive 106 BRISnet speed rating for that effort, and jockey Edgar Prado will keep the mount. This one looks like she could be scary good.

If you like to base your selections on pedigree, Redreamit is the horse for you. She is by Tapit, the leading freshman sire. With Robby Albarado in the irons she powered to an easy win for trainer Ken McPeek first out at Churchill Downs. She came from fifth in that race, and rating may work to her advantage in this one. Kent Desormeaux will be in the irons this time around.

Deciding who to go with for my top selection wasn’t easy, but I ended up with Elusive Heat. I love her pedigree, and the fact that she was a large auction purchase. Her first race couldn’t have gone any better. Unfortunately I won’t get to watch this one thanks to the signal disputes, but I will definitely have a look at the chart when its all said and done. Let me know who you like by leaving a comment!

The Grade 3 Monrovia Handicap will be contested on January 2, and has drawn a full field of 12. This one is for fillies and mares four-years-old and upward, and will be run over Santa Anita’s unique 6 1/2 furlong downhill turf course.  Among the runners are last years second place finisher and 2007 winner, Society Hostess. She was disqualified and placed fifth last year and has raced only twice since then. She won’t be without competition.

Jibboom enters this race after her second career turf victory. The Robert Frankel trainee is lightly raced, and counts the Grade 2 Raven Run as her best win. She has been working well, and jockey Garrett Gomez is among the best in recent memory. I wouldn’t be surprised if she won this thing, but I’m leaning towards others.

Bobby Abrams and Alex Solis team up to bring Lethal Heat to the track. She started her career with three consecutive wins at Santa Anita, including two over this downhill turf course. The daughter of Unusual Heat has won six of nine career starts. Her best win came in the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks. Her BRISnet speed ratings have gone up four consecutive times, but she will have a four month lay off to overcome. Look for her to run a strong race.

The white hot Joel Rosario will be piloting La Tee for trainer Mark Glatt. Her most recent performance was a tenth place finish in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She has good early speed and I expect her to be forwardly placed. The daughter of Broken Vow has a strong record over this course, winning an optional claimer and finishing second in a Grade 3 two races back. I would use her underneath on my exotic tickets.

Trouble Maker is an interesting entry, and should go off at decent odds. She will be making her first start for trainer Jay Robbins, who is famous for campaigning Tiznow. This will be her first start in a graded stakes, but she did win a minor stakes at Saratoga last summer. She will be racing in southern California for the first time, but has been working up a storm. Victor Espinoza will be in the irons.

This one is wide open and any of the aforementioned horses, or runners I didn’t mention, could win this thing. I’ll make Lethal Heat my top selection. She is breaking from the rail and I expect Alex Solis to stay relatively close to the pace. I’m going to cross my fingers and hope the lay off doesn’t hurt her. Who do you think will win? Leave a comment and let me know!