Quick Picks

Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream)

This race looks to be loaded with speed, so I’ll take Beethoven. He should get a nice closing trip under Calvin Borel. The son of Sky Mesa won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club before running fourth in the Grade 3 Holy Bull in his last outing. This race is really tough, and you could go many different ways.  My second choice will be Theregoesjojo. You may recall that I picked him when he lost in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor. He has since returned to post a nice allowance win, rallying from off the pace. My top two choices are made assuming that the pace will back up. I expect Notonthesamepage and a few others to bang heads early, and hopefully they will tire.

Grade 3 Sham Stakes

I expect The Pamplemousse and Alex Solis to keep it all business here, so you aren’t likely to find much value. He has great early speed and should wire this bunch. The only concern is the 9 furlong distance, but I expect him to handle it. Mr. Hot Stuff for Eoin Harty and Corey Nakatani look like a nice upset prospect. He broke his maiden last out earning a 96 BSF while covering the 1 mile distance in 1:35 4/5.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

The First Saturday in May is quickly approaching. I can’t wait for the day to come, and I hope that I am able to handicap the winner! There are several good horses out there now, but I have a feeling the Kentucky Derby winner might not be on the radar quite yet. Even so, here is my take on who the top 10 contenders are at this point in time.

#1 Old Fashioned- I wasn’t overly impressed with his performance in the Southwest, but he did have the layoff to contend with. I think he should have won by a wider margin. The son of Unbridled’s Song has done nothing wrong thus far, so I can’t fault him. His next performance (Rebel?) will tell us a lot more about him. He couldn’t be in better hands in terms of trainer/jockey. Larry Jones has finished second in the Kentucky Derby for two consecutive years, and Ramon Dominguez got Bluegrass Cat up for place money at a price in 2006. As will be the case with many on this list, time will tell.

#2 Dunkirk- Another son of Unbridled’s Song. He was a massive auction purchase, and things have worked out for him so far. He beat some very nice horses in his maiden, and while I didn’t see his allowance score, the way he did it was impressive. Asking him to go from 7 to 9 furlongs was a lot, and he responded. Dunkirk looked a bit green in that 9 furlong win, so if he can settle down a bit he will be even better. Todd Pletcher is arguable the best trainer of our time, but has had little Kentucky Derby success. It is only a matter of time. Its not clear who will be sitting on top of Dunkirk if he makes it to the Kentucky Derby, but my guess would that Garrett Gomez will retain the mount. He would be one of my first choices. Gomez has ice water in his veins and has won more big races than I can remember. The potential is astronomical, but he will have to live up to the hype. His next start will most likely come in the Florida Derby

#3 The Pamplemousse- Everyone believes that Pioneerof The Nile is the one to beat on the west coast, but I am going to disagree. Julio Canani’s The Pamplemousse is more appealing. This horse is improving, and put away a nice one when he beat Square Eddie. I didn’t like his chances of beating of Square Eddie that day, but he has won me over. I’m not overly familiar with his sire, Kafwain, but I do believe distance might be a slight concern. His early running style is always an advantage. Look for this guy in the Santa Anita Derby.

#4 Desert Party- He won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special before departing to Dubai. His sire, Street Cry, is among the best in the country and he is about as well bred as they come. The connections believed he wasn’t as good as stablemate Vineyard Haven but he proved them wrong when beating him in Dubai. He would be bucking a tough trend of Dubai failures if he comes through, but I wouldn’t be shocked or surprised.

#5 Friesan Fire- Larry Jones also trains this colt. I was skeptical at first, but he has won me over with impressive victories in the Lecomte and Risen Star. That path didn’t work too well for Pyro last year, but perhaps it will for this son of A.P. Indy.

#6 Pioneerof The Nile- I really thought this one was a pretender until his win in the Lewis. Bob Baffert is THE BEST trainer in the country when it comes to three-year-old Kentucky Derby contenders. His performance in the Santa Anita Derby will tell us all that we need to know.

#7 Patena- When the boys at IEAH privately purchase a Kentucky Derby contender, you had better pay attention. This colt won the Display Stakes at Woodbine and most recently ran second in the Lecomte Stakes behind Friesan Fire.

#8 Square Eddie- I bet this colt when he won the Lanes End Breeders Futurity at odds of 10-1, and the Kentucky Derby may be the next time he goes off at a price higher than that. He was a game second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but just couldn’t get by The Pamplemousse in the San Rafeal. The rumors say that he has been a bit troubled by an injury of some sort, but if he comes back 100% I’ll be looking for him.

#9 West Side Bernie- This colt won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, but has since been plagued with poor post positions. He has ran as good as you could expect with those wide draws. We will know a lot more about him when he gets a post position that is not a huge disadvantage.

#10 Haynesfield- New York Bred speedster has been untouchable in the Empire State. His most recent outing was his first win in open company when he took the Whirlaway Stakes. He is on the outside looking in, but with a bit of improvement this could be your Wood Memorial winner.

Who do you think is in the best position to win the Run for the Roses? Leave a comment and let me know!

Weekend Review

Things went so-so for me in the graded stakes races this weekend, but I was able to connect in two minor stakes at good ol’ Aqueduct. That place is really starting to grow on me! I usually like to play the west coast tracks like Santa Anita and Hollywood the most, but the NYRA tracks are also stellar. Let’s take a look at some of my mistakes and successes.

Presious Passion and Elvis Trujillo found the winners circle in the Grade II Mac Diarmida Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I knew he was a tough horse, but I figured he would catch too much heat from the inside speedster Finallymadeit. Trujillo opted to zip out of the gate and led by 7 lengths at one point. He was able to hold off Quasicobra by 1/2 length. My grandfather bet Presious Passion to win and hooked him with the favorite in the exacta, but didn’t catch it. I wish I could have at least had the winner like him and a few others that I know.

The Grade II San Carlos Stakes was no surprise, as Georgie Boy romped home easily. The inconsistent Halo Najib was along for second. He has been sprinting in his last two outings and that could be his niche. Past The Point who freaked when finishing second to Curlin the Woodward, was along for third. Kathy Walsh, trainer of Georgie Boy, was quoted by DRF.com saying that a start around two turns or on the grass could be in the geldings future.

Mayor Marv is likely headed to the Santa Anita Derby after turning back Hidden Bounty in the Turf Paradise Derby. He controlled the pace under David Flores and won with a fair bit of ease. The owner/trainer combination of Bob Baffert and Mike Pegram have campaigned greats like Real Quiet, Midnight Lute, and Silverbulletday. While the son of Distorted Humor was impressive this weekend, I doubt you will be able to find him with a search warrant on the first Saturday in May.

Victory Alleged lit up the tote board at 28-1 in the Tampa Bay Stakes. The first three finishers were close together on the wire, with Victory Alleged beating Classic Campaign by a neck with a late rush. Classic Campaign was a nose in front of the favorite, Society’s Chairman. Atoned finished fourth in his turf debut. My selection was Furthest Land, who made a move as they hit the stretch only to back up.

I needed Weathered a few months ago for a $1k+ score when she got beat by a nose. That wasn’t the case in the Rare Treat Handicap, as she won for fun. The red hot Sheldon Russell picked up second on 20-1 longshot Aristo, and second choice Bourbon Maid ended up third. I gave out the winning exacta which paid $24 for a $10 investment. I also had the trifecta for a paltry $34.25 on the $24 ticket.

Based off the television show “Jockeys” you would hard pressed to find a jockey who tries harder than Aarron Gryder. He was able to dead heat with Garrett Gomez and Bel Air Sizzle aboard Onebadkitty in the Valetine Dancer Handicap. Gryder did an excellent job and really moved this filly up. Gomez was tough like always. Talamo picked up third on longshot Gambler’s Justice. I gave out the exacta which returned $40.80 for a $10 risk. I wish I had used Bel Air Sizzle on top of my trifecta ticket instead of keying Christiana’s Heat who finished off the board. The trifecta returned $272.90 for a $1 wager.

I totally missed the Grade II San Obispo Handicap. My tickets were centered around 36-1 longshot Kris Silver who was leading mid way through the stretch only to fade. I also used 4-5 favorite Zambezi Sun on top, but alas he was also off the board. I thought Kris Silver was worth a shot at such a long price, and I would bet him again. Last years winner Spring House found the winners circle and returned $15.20 for the win wager.

The Busher Stakes was a bright spot for me this weekend. What A Pear left the field in her wake, and was ridden out to win by 10 lengths with Channing Hill aboard. I think this filly has a bright future ahead of her. Subprime picked up second for jockey Richard Migliore. I wasn’t wild about favorite Pumpkin Shell who bounced off her win in the Busanda to finish third. This race was good from a wagering standpoint. I advertised the winning exacta and trifecta tickets. The $2 exacta paid $36 for a mere $3 investment, and the $1 trifecta paid $38.75 for a $12 investment. What A Pear returned $6.80 to win.

On the whole, this was a good weekend of racing. I had some nice hits and made a couple of bucks. More importantly, I didn’t lose any money! I once heard someone say “I had a good day at the track; I got a ride home”. Like every handicapper I’m learning new things every time that I wager. I’m going to do my homework earlier in the week this time and try to have my picks in by Thursday night. If you liked this post, please consider subscribing to my full RSS feed. You can do so by entering your email address in the silver box that says “eNews and Updates” near the top right corner of this page. Thanks for reading, and let me know how your wagers did this weekend by leaving a comment!

Sunday Stakes

Grade II San Luis Obispo Handicap (Santa Anita)

This races seems devoid of early speed, so longshot Kris Silver could be able light up the toteboard at 30-1. He has been racing in open claiming company, and is a winner of 2 in a row. Tyler Baze will return to the irons. The son of The Silver Maker has 3 wins from 4 starts at Santa Anita, and trainer Rafeal Becarra is saddling 20% winners. Zambezi Sun will be making his first start in the U.S. for trainer Robert Frankel after getting waxed in the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe. Garrett Gomez will be piloting this son of Dansili, so you’ve got to thing they are ready to fire today. He has been working well at Santa Anita and should get first run on Kris Silver. Medici Code will be racing at 1 1/2 miles for the first time in his career. He always closes hard, and is coming off a nose loss in a race that was a furlong shorter. Look for him to give to a good account of himself with Joel Rosario aboard.

$2 Exacta (6,7/1,2,3,6,7,8)

$1 Trifecta (7/1,2,3,6,8/1,2,3,6,8)

Dime Superfecta (3,6,7/1,2,3,6,7,8/1,2,3,6,7,8/1,2,3,6,7,8)

Busher Stakes (Aqueduct)

What A Pear is undefeated in three career starts for trainer Joseph Parker and jockey Channing Hill. She has already proved that she can route and she won in open company last out in the Wistful Stakes. I like her chances of winning at odds of 5/2. My Anguilla will be routing for the first time for Bruce Levine. This will be the daughter of Cherokee Run’s first time against open company. My Anguilla is coupled with Driven By Passion. Richard Migliore has been riding lights out this week, and will be on Subprime. She is a stalk/close type for James Jerkens. I’ll look for her to pick up third.

WIN on WHAT A PEAR

$2 Exacta (3/1,2,4)

$1 Trifecta (3,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4)

Stakes Galore!

While she didn’t pay as much as I had hoped at $4.00, One Caroline got the job done in the Grade 3 Sabin Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I think this is a special filly, and I expect to see her in Grade 1 company this year. The daughter of Unbridled’s Song rated just off the pace early on, before taking over to win by a single length. Let’s take a look at some the stakes races for Saturday.

Grade II San Carlos Handicap (Santa Anita)

Unless 3-5 favorite Georgie Boy regresses, there is little value to be found here. Garrett Gomez will return to the irons, and he is as hot as ever, winning at a 25% clip. It seems as if the race is devoid of speed, so Past The Point could make things interesting on the front end at 4-1. Star Nicholas will be making his stakes debut with Michael Baze riding. He has won 2 of his last 4, and finished 2nd in the races he lost. He wouldn’t be a surprise at 12-1.

$1 Trifecta (4,5/1,4,5/1,3,4,5,6)

Grade II Mac Diarmida Stakes (Gulfstream)

I expect Finallymadeit and Presious Passion to bang heads early on in this event. Racing from the 12 hole and dueling with Finallymadeit should cause Presious Passion to fade, and Finallymadeit will be making his 4th start in two months. This will also be his first time on the turf, and I suspect there are too many factors for him to overcome. I’ll look to Edgar Prado on Spice Route as a win candidate at 3-1. He should lay just off the dueling speed horses. His most recent performance was a Grade III win at Calder over Soldiers Dancer, who would win next time out.

WIN on #3 SPICE ROUTE 3-1 ML

$2 Exacta (3/1,4,5,6,10,12)

$1 Trifecta (3/4,5,10/1,4,5,6,10,12)

Turf Paradise Derby (Turf Paradise)

Hometown hero and Lost In The Fog Stakes winner Hidden Bounty will seek to continue his dominance of Turf Paradise. He is a stalking type from the Bart Hone barn, and has been winning in dominating fashion. This will be his first true test of class. The main competition will come from favorite and recent maiden winner Mayor Marv. He has finished second to The Pamplemousee and Papa Clem. Bob Baffert is the king when it comes to three-year-olds, so you can expect a hell of a run from this guy. Pauper’s Prize has only raced twice and is a maiden, but should put together a nice effort.

$1 Trifecta (5,6/1,2,4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6)

Tampa Bay Stakes (Tampa Bay Downs)

It looks like “Jersey” Joe Bravo has a live mount in Furthest Land, a son of Smart Strike. This gelding was an astute claim by Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey and trainer Michael Maker. Since picking him for $35k, he has won three in a row routing on the turf. Bravo can lay back and close, or stalk the pace. I can’t pass him up at 5-1. Atoned is the 5/2 favorite, and was a winner of the Grade 3 Pegasus two races back. This will his first start on the weeds for trainer Todd Pletcher. He had an excellent five furlong move around the dogs, and I expect a good run from the son of Repent. With two wins from three starts at the distance, Society’s Chairman will also be contentious.

WIN on #7 FURTHEST LAND 5-1 ML

$2 Exacta (1,4,7/1,3,4,7)

$1 Trifecta (1,4,7/1,3,4,7/1,3,4,7)

Rare Treat Handicap (Aqueduct)

Weathered will be stretching out to 9 furlongs for the first time. She has a good record over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct. I expect her to take up a nice stalking position under Mike Luzzi and win driving. Bourbon Maid has been a different horse since switching to the inner dirt, and should provide the best competition.Richard Migliore has been very hot the past few days and will give her a great ride. Aristo looks to be a tad below this bunch, but has 3 wins from 6 starts on the inner dirt.

WIN on #6 WEATHERED 9/5 ML

$2 Exacta (6,7/1,2,3,6,7)

$1 Trifecta (6,7/1,2,6,7/1,2,3,5,6,7)

Valetine Dancer Handicap (Santa Anita)

Christina’s Heat ran a hell of a race to finish second behind Jibboom two back in the Grade III Monrovia Handicap. She followed that performance up with another second place finish. I love her early running style and hall of famer Chris McCarron once told me that her jockey, Michael Baze, is the best young rider in the country. She is ready to go today at 4-1. Tiz A Blend won this event for Carla Gaines last year and has returned for a title defense. The daughter of Cee’s Tizzy has tailed off a bit since then, but is in with a shot. Waveline has what I like to call the “Bejarano Factor” working to her advantage. It seems like he always moves his horses up, and she has won 2 of 3 races with Bejarano in the irons.

WIN on #2 CHRISTINA’S HEAT 4-1 ML

$2 Exacta (2,3/2,3,5,8,11)

$1 Trifecta (2/3,5,7,11/1,3,5,7,8,11)

Grade III Sabin Stakes

If you able to watch the Sabin Stakes from the rail at Gulfstream Park on Friday, then I am very jealous of you. While the 55 degrees that my fellow Cincinnatians and I are experiencing isn’t too bad, I would trade it for the sunny Florida weather in a second. I’m not going to let the weather dampens my spirits though, because there is a filly in this race who looks like she could be a star.

One Caroline was purchased for $400k at the Fasig Tipton Sale in 2006, and is a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime for trainer George Arnold II. The daughter of Unbridled’s Song had trouble in her debut at Churchill Downs, but still got up to win by a single length. She followed that win up with a wire to wire score under the twin spires against allowance horses. One Caroline took that race by 6 3/4 lengths and absolutely toyed with the field. Her latest win was the most impressive, and came in similar fashion to her allowance score at Churchill Downs. Her last race was won at today’s track and distance, and she earned a monstrous 100 BRIS speed figure. I love her odds at 6-1, and I expect a big race from this front running filly.

Miss Isella should provide the bulk of her competition. From the barn of Ian Wilkes, she won the Grade 2 Fall City Handicap in her last outing. You can expect Calvin Borel to get this closing filly a saving ground trip along the rail. The distance suits Miss Isella well. This will be her first start in over two months, but I’m not too worried about the layoff. Perhaps I am overconfident in One Caroline, but I think this is the only filly who can run her down.

There are several different ways you could handle this race from a wagering standpoint. If you have the bankroll, I would advise wheeling One Caroline over everyone in the previous and next races in the Daily Double wager. I would also place a 10 cent superfecta with her wheeled over everyone and hope she gets some bombers behind her. At odds of 6-1, you cant go wrong with a win wager. Good luck, and below are the tickets I that recommend.

WIN on 5

$2 Daily Double (Races 6-7): 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,12/5

$2 Exacta: 5/1,3,6,7,8

$2 Trifecta: 5/3,6,7/1,3,6,7,8

Dime Superfecta: 5/1,3,6,7,8/ALL/ALL

Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes

Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday won the Sam F. Davis Stakes in 2006 and 2007. Both went on to have great careers, with the former running second in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, and the latter romping in the Haskell Invitational.  What does the future holds for this years winner? Only time will tell.

Musket Man ran an excellent BSF of 91 en route to a victory in the $75,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.  I expect him to be a pace factor. He is a son of the promising young sire, Yonaguska.  If distance doesn’t pose a problem, you might be reading about Musket Man as a potential Kentucky Derby starter.

I really like Atomic Rain’s chances of turning the tables on Free Country, who beat him by a neck last time out. Kelly Breen has added blinkers for the son of Smart Strike, and the shortening up in distance should work to his advantage. There doesn’t seem to be an abudance of speed, so the blinkers could have him leading the way. John Velasquez is one of my favorite jockeys, and I expect him to do a great job with Atomic Rain.

Top Seed just can’t get a break. He will be racing from the 11 hole, after winning from the 12 hole last time out in the $65,000 Inaugural Stakes. Trombetta has switched to jockey Ron Allen, who has been red hot of late. From the sire Grand Slam, I don’t expect distance to be a problem. However, this will be his first time stretching out. If he can overcome his post position, he may be able to get the job done.

Plays:

$1 Trifecta: (5/2,7,8,9,11/2,7,8,9,11)

WIN on ATOMIC RAIN

Jockeys

Being a fan of west coast racing, I was thrilled to watch the premiere of Jockeys last week on Animal Planet. The show follows the daily lives of  jockeys Mike Smith, Joe Talamo, Chantal Sutherland, Aarron Gryder, Kayla Stra, Corey Nakatani, and a few others. Whether your an old salt like Kentucky Derby winning jockey Mike Smith, or a young buck like Smokin’ Joe, the life of a jockey is not an easy one.

Jockeys face the struggle to make weight throughout their careers, and some must resort to a tactic called “reducing”. This involves spending time in the sauna, inducing vomiting, starving themselves, and taking diuretics all in an effort to shed weight. I once read of a jockey who put on a winter coat during 90 degree heat and began jogging around the track in order to drop a few pounds!

Death is always a risk while in the irons. We were reminded of this sad reality when Sam Thompson, 36, passed away after being thrown from his mount at Los Alamitos on December 24, 2008. I won’t claim to be a quarter horse afficiando, but I do remember watching Sam win some big races aboard FDD Dynasty. He was beloved by his fellows jockeys, and will be missed. If you would like to help disabled and injured jockeys visit the MacBeth Fund, which was formed in honor of Don MacBeth.

I was taken aback by the determinedness displayed by Aaron Gryder. For those not familiar with him, he rides Grade 1 Goodwood winner Well Armed, and can occasionally be found riding for Bob Baffert. He is an amazing competitor, and even when he isn’t riding in a race, he is watching and taking notes. You may be surprised to learn that Gryder has made a guest appearance on The Sopranos.  If riding races doesn’t work out, he could always become an actor!

If you didn’t get a chance to watch Jockeys last week, I strongly suggest you do so this time around. The show will be on the Animal Planet on Friday at 8 PM EST.  According to last weeks preview, this episode will focus on the rivalry between Aaron Gryder and Joe Talamo.  Below is an exclusive clip from this weeks show, just for visitors of gradedstakes.com!