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Derby Preps

March 31, 2009 By 2 Comments

I’m looking forward to the trio of Kentucky Derby preps heading our way this weekend. The Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Illinois Derby will all have major Kentucky Derby implications. They have produced a combined 18 Kentucky Derby winners; that’s quite a staggering total!

The Grade I Wood Memorial will probably receive the most fanfare due to Grade III Gotham Stakes winner I Want Revenge. The Stephen Got Even colt romped in that race by 8.5 lengths. It was even more impressive because it was his first run over traditional dirt. IEAH, who owned last years Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, purchased a 50% share in the colt on Monday.

Probable starters for the Wood Memorial include the aforementioned I Want Revenge, Imperial Council, Just a Coincidence, Lime Rickey, Atomic Rain, West Side Bernie, and Danger to Society. I Want Revenge won’t just waltz into the winners circle; he will be facing a formidable bunch. I’ll reserve final judgment until I see the PPs for the race, but Imperial Council may be a live runner. He was charging hard to finish second in the Gotham, and the connections may have been saving something for this race on that day.

The Santa Anita Derby will be headlined by The Pamplemousse and Pioneerof The Nile. The former is a speedster and will be racing on the front end, and the latter is a closer who will be rolling late. I expect Pioneerof The Nile to be the favorite, but only by a slight margin. I’m not a huge fan of the Bob Baffert trainee. He has done nothing but beat up on stumble bums. The Pamplemousse, trained by Julio Canani, has taken down a few nice ones. I expect The Pamplemousse to bury the field and win the Santa Anita Derby in wire to wire fashion.

Musket Man heads the field in the Illinois Derby. He is a multiple stakes winner and most recently took the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. I question whether the Yonaguksa colt will like the distance.He will have to beat second choice Giant Oak, who has been facing better horses at the Fair Grounds. Giant Oak finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby in his last start. Todd Pletcher has entered three horses for this race (Al Khali, Lord Justice, Il Postino).

True horse racing fans don’t want to miss these races. They will be major factors for any handicapper when trying to pick the Kentucky Derby winner. I’m most looking forward to the Santa Anita Derby. I’ve believed all along that The Pamplemousse was better than Pioneerof The Nile; I hope he proves me right.

Filed Under: Horse Racing News, Triple Crown

Quality Road Rolls

March 30, 2009 By 2 Comments

As I entered the River Downs clubhouse on Saturday, Dunkirk had just hooked Quality Road in the Florida Derby. My heart sank, thinking the Unbridled’s Song colt would go by my selection, but ultimately Quality Road prevailed; and in track record time. I couldn’t have been happier with the outcome. Although the exacta paid just $9, I had it cold 30 times. I also had $50 to win on Quality Road, naively thinking I might get the 2-1 morning line price. The Elusive Quality speedster ended up paying $4.40 to win, but like they say; a winner is a winner.

Quality Road survived a claim of foul from Kent Desormeux who was aboard Theregoesjojo, the third place finisher. Theregoesjojo checked in the stretch, but there was ultimately no change. Desormeux won the Lanes End Stakes under Hold Me Back one week prior to the Florida Derby.

Todd Pletcher wasn’t too happy about the way things played out. He said that the track was playing too fast, and if he had known that he would’ve taken Dunkirk to the Wood Memorial. I have to agree that the track was lightning quick, but I don’t believe it cost Dunkirk the win. Quality Road was just the better horse.

I am in complete awe of Quality Road at this point. I may jump ship after seeing another runner, but as of now, he is my top pick for the Kentucky Derby. His win in the Fountain of Youth was against one of the deepest fields we’ve seen this year. If he runs as well as he did in the Florida Derby, everyone else will be running for second on the first Saturday in May. Will Quality Road will put jockey John Velazquez in the Kentucky Derby winners circle for the first time? Only time will tell.

*Congratulations to my customers who had Quality Road with me! Rest assured there will be more winners to come!

Filed Under: Horse Racing News, Triple Crown

Rampart Stakes & Sunland Derby

March 29, 2009 By 1 Comment

Grade 2 Rampart Stakes

I’ve grown fond of the 5/2 favorite One Caroline. She is a perfect 4 for 4, and her BRIS figure has gone up with each race. The daughter of Unbridled’s Song beat some nice mares in her last win, the Grade 3 Sabin Handicap. Her front running style will work to her advantage. Edgar Prado should give her a great ride and put her in a position to win. Ginger Brew has had a bit of bad luck, but is more than capable of winning this race. I like the turf to dirt move, and I believe she is more adept on this surface. If you want to know which of these girls Ithink will win, click “Purchase Now” below to get my official selections!

Sunland Derby

This is quite an interesting event. Several California horses have shipped in to try and take the $800k race. Mayor Marv, winner of the Turf Paradise Derby, is the 7/2 favorite. He will be racing on the front end and has proven he can handle traditional dirt. He will put up a fight, but wont offer enough value. Valid Stripes offers the best bang for your buck at 15-1. He has been running well, and most recently took a $125k statebred race at Retama. His BRIS figures are among the best in the race. Advice is an interesting entry. John Velazquez will be in to ride the Todd Pletcher colt, who will be racing with blinkers for the first time. How can you not like that combo at 6/1? This race is going to be one to remember.


Filed Under: Horse Handicapping

Grade 1 Florida Derby

March 28, 2009 By 1 Comment

The Florida Derby is easily one of the best Kentucky Derby preps available.  It has produced two out of the last three Kentucky Derby winners, and a total of three Derby winners this decade. Last years winner, Big Brown, would go to take two legs of the Triple Crown. Dunkirk, who will be racing from post number four, has been drawing comparison to Big Brown. Is he on the same level? We will find out on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the field!

#1 Toby the Coal Man- Zito is known for entering puzzling horses like this one. He broke his maiden last out in his sixth start. Whats more, he was all out and only earned a BSF of 86. I love the combination of Zito/Leparoux, but based on what he has done this colt would have to step up big time.

#2 Quality Road- I really love the way this son of Elusive Quality got away from Theregoesjojo in the final stages of the Fountain of Youth. He went so fast, and his 113 BSF for the race reflects that. The FOY was arguably the toughest race of the year, and he won with a fair bit of ease. Its scary to think how good he could be if he likes two turns.

#3 Casey’s On Call- Although he is a decent colt, I won’t be including him on any tickets so he doesn’t warrant a comment.

#4 Dunkirk- The rock star of the group. Purchased for $3.2 million as a yearling, he is a perfect 2 for 2 with a maiden and allowance win. His last run was great considering he was pushed very wide around the first turn. Gomez will be making the trip from California to ride.  He will need a good pace to chase, but all system are go for the morning line favorite.

#5 Sincero-  Trujillo picks up the mount, and the son of Repent will be racing with blinkers for the first time. He was 6 lengths behind Dunkirk last out in an allowance race.He wont be a threat to win, but could help make the trifecta pay well.

#6 Theregoesjojo- Ken McPeek doesn’t like that all the talk in this race is on Dunkirk and Quality Road. His colt, Theregoesjojo, has a great chance too according to him. I have to agree with the ace trainer. He bested Quality Road two back, but his loss to him last out makes me think Quality Road has ascended higher than him. He is bred for the distance. I don’t think he will win, but he could provide value at the window.

#7 Danger to Society- Likely to scratch according to trainer Rick Dutrow.

#8 Europe- Entered as a rabbit for Dunkirk. He has two chances of winning.; slim and none.

#9 Stately Character- Was left in Dunkirk’s dust two back, finishing 47 lengths behind him. He is a throw away.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping, Triple Crown

Grade 2 Bonnie Miss Stakes

March 25, 2009 By 1 Comment

The Grade 2  Bonnie Miss Stakes looks to be a competitive horse race. It will be contested at the 1 1/8 miles distance on the dirt for three-year-old fillies. Click “Buy Picks” on the red toolbar if you would like our official exotics (EXACTA, TRIFECTA, SUPERFECTA) and win wagers!

#1 Casanova Move- The daughter of Langfuhr turned in a good race last out, earning a BRIS figure of 100 en route to a second place finish in the Grade 2 Davona Dale. The extra furlong should help her chances. She will have to step up if she wishes to find the winners circle.

#2 Suz Slew- The only filly in the race with a win at today’s distance. She will have the services of ace jockey John R. Velazquez. There are some positive signs, but it would a shocker if she were able to win.

#3 Gatorette- Trainer David Fawkes and jockey Eibar Coa have got to be excited about this daughter of Distorted Humor. She has raced only twice, and won both events by 7 lengths. Look for her to set the pace.

#4 Hopeful Image- She will racing on 56 days rest, and is most likely outclassed.

#5 Shared Account- Was exposed last out in the Grade 2 Davona Dale when she finished 6th by 22.25 lengths. She is bred to run all day, but I don’t see any reason why she would improve enough to beat this bunch.

#6 Justwhistledixie- Dominating victor of four in a row. She is owned by the famed West Point Thoroughbreds, and trained  by Kiaran McLaughlin. Her last win in the Grade 2 Davona Dale was very impressive. Gatorette is an “x” factor, but this filly should romp.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping

Hold Me Back!

March 24, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Being a native of Cincinnati, I always root for the winner of the Lanes End in the Kentucky Derby. I thought the Lanes End had a live runner in Hard Spun back in 2007, but he came up just short with a second place finish. I loaded up on him at 10-1, and Street Sense creeping up on the rail haunts me to this day.

Lil E. Tee (RIP) is the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby out of the Lanes End. He shocked the world, paying $35 and change. The favorite that year was the alleged super horse, Arazi. While I didn’t watch the race live, I recall jockey Patrick Valenzuela saying Arazi couldn’t lose. He probably lost just because P-Val said that. Like many horse players, I believe there is no such thing as a “lock”; especially in the Kentucky Derby.

Hold Me Back won the Lanes End this year. It was his first start in more than four months; not a bad way to start the year! Rumor has it that he is headed to the Bluegrass at Keeneland. He will probably be one of the top choices. His final time of 1:49.63 was OK but not great if you ask me. While his win didn’t catapult him to my top ten, he is atleast on the radar.

Regardless of how he runs in the Bluegrass, we still won’t know how he likes the dirt. I can’t use his run in the Remsen as the litmus test. So much has changed between then and now, so it wouldn’t be fair. One thing is for sure; nothing is holding him back right now.

Filed Under: Horse Racing Information, Triple Crown

Purchase Selections

March 21, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Gradedstakes.com has been providing the public with quality selections for over two years at no cost. During this time we have given out winners such as First Defence ($17.60) in the Grade I Forego and exotics like the $3,340.40 superfecta in the 2008 edition of the Pacific Classic. We plan on providing you with the same quality picks and even more.

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Filed Under: Horse Handicapping

Random and Unorganized Thoughts

March 16, 2009 By Leave a Comment

All in all, I wasn’t very impressed with the racing this weekend. The top horses didn’t really get much of a challenge. Pioneerof The Nile won over a terrible field. He will be in for a rude awakening in the Santa Anita Derby. I don’t think he can handle Julio Canani’s The Pamplemousse. Hopefully he catches a ton of action and I can get a better price on The Pamplemousse.

I’d like to congratulate one of our readers, Reagan, who is a partial owner of Join In The Dance. The son of Sky Mesa finished second behind Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby over the weekend, and paid a whopping $25.80 to place! He very overlaid, and should’ve probably been closer to 10-1. I know thats easy to say now, but I’ve been watching this colt since his debut, and he is very talented. Good luck Reagan, and hopefully he can make it to the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby!

Friesan Fire and Rachel Alexandra were easily the most impressive runners this weekend. Rachel Alexandra couldn’t have won any easier than she did, and finished in a fast time. I’m counting her among my top choices for the Kentucky Derby at this point in time. Friesan Fire took the Louisana Derby emphatically. Most of us thought he was going to play second fiddle to stablemate Old Fashioned, but now it looks as if he may be the better of the two. Old Fashioned finished second in the Rebel over the weekend after laying too close to a fast pace.

Who do you think will win the Kentucky Oaks? Answer our poll on the right side of this page!

Filed Under: Horse Racing News

Weekend Stakes

March 12, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Grade II San Felipe

I don’t know how much we will learn about Pioneerof The Nile if he keeps racing against stumblebums. I’m not a huge fan of the Empire Maker colt, but he is leaps and bounds better than anyone else in the race. Baffert is the best trainer in the U.S. with three-year-olds and he will make sure this colt doesn’t bounce or have an off day. Pioneerof The Nile should win handily, but the real challenge lies ahead. New Bay is the only horse I could see making a race of out this event. He would have to improve, but looks to be a nice runner for trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Joe Talamo. Isn’t Smokin’ Joe dating his daughter? I don’t remember, but I think I saw that on Jockeys. Regardless of what happens here, it should be of little consequence come Kentucky Derby day.

$2 Trifecta (2/6,7/3,4,6,7)

Grade II Fair Ground Oaks

Tabbed at 4-5 ML, you won’t get much value if you bet Rachel Alexandra in this race. However, I am looking to the future. She looks to be the best three-year-old filly in the country, and an excellent Kentucky Oaks prospect. She won for fun last out, and went a second faster than Old Fashioned did for the same distance that same holiday weekend. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro earned a 100 BSF for that run. Make sure to watch her run, because this filly is something special. I advise a bet to win on her in the Kentucky Oaks Future Pool at 6-1, because she surely won’t go off at that price if things pan out like I think they will.

Grade II New Orleans Handicap

This race is about as tough as they come, but I’ll go with Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez’s Honest Man. He fired a 105 BSF last out when winning the Grade III Mineshaft Handicap, and he boasts a record of 4 wins from 5 starts at Fair Grounds. I expect Saez to stalk one or two lengths from the pacesetter, and roar home for the win. You could go a million different ways here. My Pal Charlie looks nice from the far outside for trainer Albert Stall and jockey John Velazquez. He has a good record over the track, and finished second in last years running of the Louisiana Derby. El Caballo could make some noise for trainer Ralphie Nicks. The veteran conditioner is winning 20% of his races, and this colt has won three of his last four races.

WIN on HONEST MAN

$2 Exacta (10,14/1,4,7,9,10,14)

$1 Trifecta (10,14/1,4,10,14/1,4,7,9,10,14)

Grade III Cicada Stakes

Dream Play looks to be exactly that for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey Eddie Castro. She registered a BRIS figure of 100 last out en route to a victory in the Darley Precious Stakes. Her time of 1:10 4/5 for the 6 furlongs distance is very fast, and even more so for a filly. I think the daughter of Hennesy will race on the front end and beat up on this field of six. Daily Star could make things interesting if the pace gets heavy. She broke her maiden on her first try, and has Richard “The Mig” Migliore in the irons.

$2 Exacta (1/2,3,4,6)

$1 Trifecta (1/2,3/2-6)

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping

Grade II Louisiana Derby

March 10, 2009 By 1 Comment

It’s finally that time of the year. The “real” Kentucky Derby preps have finally arrived. The Louisiana Derby will be running for the 110th time this weekend. Typically, the winner doesn’t go on to do much damage, but there are a few exceptions. Black Gold went on to win the Kentucky Derby all the way back in 1924, and Grindstone won for D. Wayne Lukas in 1996. Risen Star was also a Louisiana Derby winner. He would eventually win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Last years winner, Pyro, pretty much fell off the map after winning this race. Let’s figure out who will win this year, and then most likely venture into obscurity.

#1 Free Country (12-1)-  I don’t know what everyone was thinking when they bet this colt the favorite last out in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He finished fourth and never really got involved. On the bright side, the race was fast and he wasn’t too terribly far behind at 8 lengths. Ken McPeek will be throwing on blinkers for the first time. Kent Desormeaux is in to ride the colt, so that is encouraging. I’m not wild about his chances, but I wouldn’t dismiss him at 12-1.

#2 Soul Warrior(20-1)- This son of Lion Heart will be racing with blinkers for the first time. Trainer Steve Asmussen couldn’t have been too impressed with his 6th place finish last out in the Grade III Risen Star. He doesn’t really fit with this bunch, but three-year-olds can turn into stars over night. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for this guy though.

#3 Patena(7-2)- IEAH bought this colt and gave him to trainer Richard Dutrow. We all saw what happened when he got This Ones For Phil for the first time. That horse running well didn’t make sense, but Patena certainly has the merits. He finished a close second to Friesan Fire last out, and took the Display Stakes as a two-year-old. The well bred son of Seeking The Gold fired a 59 2/5 five furlong bullet in his last work. He will have Albarado in the irons, and I expect to improve and close full of run.

#4 Terrain(10-1)- This one flopped last out in the Delta Jackpot when he had blinkers on for the first time. Needless to say, they will be coming off. This will be his first race of the year. He made a good showing of himself as a two-year-old with a 2nd place finish in the Lanes End Breeders Futurity, and a 4th finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. If he can return to the form, he is among the best in this field. His sire is Sky Mesa, and he will have Julien Leparoux piloting for the first time. Don’t overlook this one.

#5 Flying Pegasus (8-1)- I don’t know how this son of Fusiachi Pegasus managed to get off at the odds of 10-1 last out when finishing second in the Risen Star. Flying Pegasus popped a 97 BRIS figure in that event. His trip in the Risen Star was lackluster. You can expect a markedly better ride from John Velazquez. He put in a nice effort as a two-year-old when he finished 2nd in the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont Park. There are tons of reasons to like this colt. He will among the top choices.

#6 Giant Oak (4-1)- The son of Giant’s Causeway was sent off the favorite in the Grade III Risen Star, but was the victim of an awful trip. He was blocked much of the way and couldn’t find room until late in the game. Unless that happens again, he will move up today. The same thing happened to him as a two-year-old in the Grade III Bourbon Stakes, and he returned to finish second by a neck in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club. Edgar Prado was up both times he got in trouble, but James Graham will get the mount today. There are some questions, but he could score at a decent price.

#7 Uno Mas (12-1)- This one improved last out when running third in the Grade III Risen Star Stakes at the odds of 12-1. The son of Macho Uno has been steadily improving for trainer Steve Asmussen, and if he continues to develop he will make some noise. Today will answer a lot of the questions we have about him. He would be good to use underneath on exotic tickets, but I don’t see Uno Mas visiting the winners circle in the Louisiana Derby.

#8 Papa Clem (8-1)- California shipper will be trying dirt for the first time, and being a son of Smart Strike, I expect him to perform well. The nearly infallible Rafeal Bejarano will be at the Fair Grounds to pilot the colt. He finished a close second to Pioneerof the Nile last out, who is at the top of many Derby lists. He looks to have speed to spare, so I envision him setting the pace. I like his chances at the juicy odds of 8-1.

#9 Friesan Fire (5/2)- The favored Friesan Fire is the only colt in the field to pop a 100 BRIS figure, and he did so last out en route to a win in the Risen Star Stakes. He should be stalking in third or fourth for this race. He is from one of my favorite sires, A.P. Indy. He recently fired a :58 1/5 five furlong move, and looks to be getting better if you can believe that. If he runs back to his last race he will probably win, and if he improves he will romp. He is certainly not a lock, but definitely a good thing.

#10 Nowhere To Hide (20-1)- Nick Zito got pleasant surprise when this horse finished a close fourth in the Risen Star at big odds. The son of Vindication will be ridden by Corey Lanerie. He has been running well the past couple of races, and can’t be dismissed. If your looking for a horse to make the trifecta pay, this could be the one.

WIN on PAPA CLEM

$2 Exacta: (8,9/1,3,5,8,9)

$1 Trifecta: (8,9/3,5,8,9/1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10)

$1 PICK 4 starting in RACE 6: (3/1,7,8,9,10,14/6,12,14/8,9)

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping, Triple Crown
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