Kentucky Derby Selections

The Kentucky Derby will be contested for the 135th time on Saturday May 2. The dreams of one horse’s connections will come true, and nineteen others will be flattened.  This race is the reason jockeys, trainers, owners, and just about everyone involved in the sport find the strength to get up in the morning. It is my hope that one day I will be able to train/own a winner of the Kentucky Derby. I’ve been waiting all year and the time is finally upon us. Let’s take a look at some of the top contenders.

I had a hard time deciding who to make my top pick for this race, but I ultimately opted to go with the Larry Jones trainee Friesan Fire. He matured very well over the winter and is getting better with each and every race. He took the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his last start by more than seven lengths over eventual Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. He did so over a sloppy track, and it may just be wet when they Run for the Roses. He earned a great Beyer Speed Figure of 104 for that effort.

Prior to taking the Louisiana Derby, Friesan Fire found the winners circle in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes and the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes. He is a perfect three for three this year and should be set for a peak effort after resting for 7 weeks. He fired a bullet :57.80 five furlong move on Monday. All systems are go for trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez. Jones will be retiring at the end of 2009 so I would love nothing more than to see him ride off into the sunset with a win in the Kentucky Derby.

My second choice is Dunkirk. I don’t think much separates him from my choice to win, but he is a bit short on experience so that is why Friesan Fire got the edge. My top pick was Quality Road before he scratched, so it is logical that I would go to Dunkirk because he finished second to Quality Road in the Grade 1 Florida Derby last out.  He turned in a nice work since that race and should be good to go. Trainer Todd Pletcher stands a good chance to break his o for 21 streak in the Derby. Edgar Prado won this race in 2006 and will give him a hell of a ride.

I think Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, General Quarters, and Regal Ransom could all be in the mix for the exotics. I Want Revenge is easily the most appealing horse on paper, but he offers no value at 3-1, and I think he is eligible to bounce. General Quarters ran his best race on this surface in the Sam F. Davis and proved last out in the Bluegrass that he belongs. Hold Me Back has raced just twice this year and has a deep late kick. Chocolate Candy had the best race in the Santa Anita Derby and is eligible to improve. Regal Ransom is bred to go the distance, and won the UAE Derby in his last start.

All in all, this Kentucky Derby will be a very competitive race. Over 10 horses have a legit shot to find the winners circle. I believe the Trifecta is likely to pay over $4,000 for a $1 wager. The Superfecta has been great over the years and will likely pay over $10,000 for a $1 wager. Who do you like to win the Kentucky Derby? Leave a comment and tell me what you think!

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Papa Clems works 3 furlongs in :34

Trainer Gary Stute might be planning to send Papa Clem to the front in the Kentucky Derby. I say that because he gave the colt a blow out 3 furlong work in :34 this morning. The talented son of Smart Strike took the Arkansas Derby in his last start, but did so from off the pace. He gallopped out four furlongs in :46 1/5 with regular jockey Rafael Bejarano aboard. Papa Clem ran a quarter of a mile in a lightning fast time of :21 3/5. The Kentucky Derby is just two days away.

Some were concerned that Papa Clem wasn’t handling the track well after working seven furling in 1:29. Stute says he wasn’t very concerned.

“It’s always kind of deep when you first get here,” Stute said. “The few times I’ve been here, and watching it on TV, usually Derby day it’s pretty firm and tight. A lot of people have been worried about the way he’s been handling the track, but to be honest, I wasn’t.” (Bloodhorse.com)

He also had a few nice things to say about my favorite jockey Rafael Bejarano.

“If it was a fantasy jockey league and I had first pick in the draft, I’d take Rafael Bejarano,” Stute said. “There are a lot of great riders in the race, but he’s in the ‘zone.’ I couldn’t be happier.” (Bloodhorse.com)

Rachel Alexandra favored to win Kentucky Oaks

I’ve done a lot of work on the Kentucky Derby, but who can forget the lillies for the fillies?! The Kentucky Oaks will be contested at Churchill Downs on Friday, and has drawn a field of eight. The seemingly invincible Rachel Alexandra has been tabbed at 3-5 on the morning line and will be very tough to beat. Let’s take a quick glance at the runners.

#1 Tweeter- This Lukas filly broke her maiden last out in wire to wire fashion at Keeneland. This is an enormous step up in class for her, and she probably doesnt stand a chance. Miguel Mena will ride.

#2 Be Fair- My  favorite jockey, Rafeal Bejarano will ride this daughter of Exchange Rate for the first time. She was most recently a tiring fourth in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes. She showed  some talent in her second start in which won by 4 lengths at Oaklawn Park. She would have to bring her “A” game to do anything here.

#3 Stone Legacy- It’s becoming quite common for D Wayne Lukas to enter his horses over their head. I’m not knocking the great trainer, but this one just doesn’t fit no matter how I look at it. She does enter after firing a bullet five furlong move, so maybe he knows something I dont?

#4 Gabby’s Golden Gal- Sunland isn’t exactly comparable to Keeneland, but I’m impressed with this filly’s powerful 13 length win in the Sunland Oaks last out. Trainer jockey combination of Baffert/Espinoza took the Kentucky Derby in 2002 with War Emblen. They’ve got a shot of taking another big race with this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro.

#5 Justwhistledixie- Has been winning for fun but mostly at sprint distances minus her last win at 9 furlongs. She is a $425k auction purchase by Dixie Union and is royally bred. She would beneift from a speed duel if Leparoux is able to use his patented “close from the clouds” move.

#6 Rachel Alexandra- They are going to have a hell of a time trying to beat this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro. She won the Grade 2 Fantasy last out and has run a 100+ BSF three times in a row, and also ran a 99 BSF. I expect to see her run a beauty of a race, and hopefully the connections will consider the Preakness or Belmont Stakes.

#7 Nan- I’m putting a line through her last race; regular jockey Corey Nakatani was not in the irons. She has been playing second fiddle to Stardom Bound for most of her career, but if she can improve and take ot the dirt she stands a shot in this one.

#8 Flying Spur- This girl could be getting good at the right time. Giant’s Causeway progeny are typically late bloomer from what I have noticed. Eclipse award winning jockey Garrett Gomea will be in the irons for trainer Bill Mott. She is more than capable of finding the winners circle.

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I Want Revenge 3-1 ML favorite for Kentucky Derby

Grade 1, $2 million Kentucky Derby – NBC 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 2

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Odds
1	West Side Bernie	Kelly Breen	Stewart Elliott	30-1
2	Musket Man	Derek Ryan	Eibar Coa	20-1
3	Mr. Hot Stuff	Eoin Harty	John Velazquez	30-1
4	Advice	Todd Pletcher	Rene Douglas	30-1
5	Hold Me Back	Bill Mott	Kent Desormeaux	15-1
6	Friesan Fire	Larry Jones	Gabriel Saez	5-1
7	Papa Clem	Gary Stute	Rafael Bejarano	20-1
8	Mine That Bird	Bennie Woolley	Calvin Borel	50-1
9	Join in the Dance	Todd Pletcher	Chris DeCarlo	50-1
10	Regal Ransom	Saeed bin Suroor	Alan Garcia	30-1
11	Chocolate Candy	Jerry Hollendorfer	Mike Smith	20-1
12	General Quarters	Tom McCarthy	Julien Leparoux	20-1
13	I Want Revenge	Jeff Mullins	Joe Talamo	3-1
14	Atomic Rain	Kelly Breen	Joe Bravo	50-1
15	Dunkirk	Todd Pletcher	Edgar Prado	4-1
16	Pioneerof the Nile	Bob Baffert	Garrett Gomez	4-1
17	Summer Bird	Tim Ice	Chris Rosier	50-1
18	Nowhere to Hide	Nick Zito	Shaun Bridgmohan	50-1
19	Desert Party	Saeed bin Suroor	Ramon Dominguez	15-1
20	Flying Private	D. Wayne Lukas	Robby Albarado

I Want Revenge will be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby and he has drawn unlucky number 13. Call me superstitious, but I don’t like the number 13 much at all. I have to say im pretty dissapointed with the morning line on the whole. Pioneerof The Nile should be a higher number, and 30-1 is much too high on the UAE Derby winner Regal Ransom. Most of the “choices” are hung on the outside, so that may bode well for Friesan Fire who will be racing from the 9 whole. The Run for the Roses is almost here!

Quality Road exits, Join In The Dance enters

I woke up this morning to learn that my top pick in the Kentucky Derby, Quality Road, has been scratched because of soreness in one of his hooves. What a wonderful way to start the day. My entire handicapping of the Kentucky Derby has been thrown into dissarray. On the other hand, I am also a bit happy. My friend Reagan Swinbank will be sending out Join In The Dance because of the defection. Reagan owns the colt along with a few other friends, and this colt was his first purchase.

I guess I’ve got an eye for talent; I picked Join In The Dance when he broke his maiden at Saratoga. Even then I knew this colt had a great future ahead of him. Click here to check that article out.

What are the odds? He buys his first colt, and less than a year later he is in the Kentucky Derby. Now that’s the dream.While he probably only has an outside shot, he could still win. The old saying goes like this; if your in the race you’ve got a shot. It’s kind of like what they call a “punchers chance” in boxing. Anything can happen!

Swinbank tells me that jockey Chris DeCarlo will be riding Join In The Dance on the first Saturday in May. This is not a surprising move by trainer Todd Pletcher. He rides DeCarlo a ton, and has great confidence in the jockey. Hall of fame jockey Angel Cordero was in the irons for Join In The Dance’s work this morning at Churchill Downs. He zipped through five furlongs in 1:00.20. Todd Pletcher had this to say about the work:

“He’s an enthusiastic work horse, so it was good to see him settle and work well today,” Pletcher said afterward. “He should be ready now.”

Reagan is very happy to have a horse in the Kentucky Derby, and had this to share with us.

How do you feel about your chances of winning?

We understand the situation that Join in the Dance (JITD) is in. We snuck into the field on Monday, and know we will be a long shot. On the other hand we also understand that JITD might be the only speed in the race, and with the perfect trip and his best race, we could come on the board. We know he likes the dirt, and this is his 3^rd race over 2 turns. With the experience he gained in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Bluegrass , hopefully he will calm down on the back stretch and have something left for the final run home.

We are going into the race knowing the odds are against us….but I admit, it’s a little hard not to get excited.

What does it feel like to be in the Derby ?

We are so happy and excited to be part of the Kentucky Derby. It’s the greatest race in American horse racing and we couldn’t be prouder to have a horse in the race. Our ownership group is new to horse racing, and we know how lucky we are to have a Derby horse with our first colt. It’s been a wild and extremely fun ride since we bought JITD last summer. We are so proud of Join in the Dance, and we hope for a safe and lucky trip on Saturday.

I can’t wait to get my first Kentucky Derby starter, and hopefully winner. I can only hope to be so fortunate. Good luck Reagan & Co., everyone at GradedStakes.Com is rooting for Join In The Dance!!

Why Quality Road will win the Kentucky Derby

This post was done completely by a good friend of mine named Matt Jolly. I hope you like it!

With the Kentucky Derby a little more then a week away many handicappers are doing their homework trying to find that “Perfect” horse for them to take a stand on. All handicappers know that feeling when you find that horse that eases your nerves as they are loading into the starting gate. Unfortunately when it comes to The Kentucky Derby it becomes increasingly difficult to find a horse like that. With so many different angles one can play with a 20 horse field by the time you go to place a bet your head will be spinning. In my experiences, like anything else in life, you are better off going with your first instinct, but the problem is after listening for weeks of others opinions it is hard not to second guess your opinion. This year I have decided to stick to my guns with Quality Road and I will explain why I believe he is the horse that will make everyone’s life easier come May 2^nd.

When I look for a derby horse I look at a lot of different angles. I want a horse with the right running style. This changes from year to year depending on how the pace shapes up. In most years it always seems like there is always speed to spare, but this year looks to be different. With Papa Clem showing a different dimension in the Arkansas Derby, The Pamplemousse on the sidelines with an injury, and Old Fashioned retiring because of injury the pace of the race has taken a hit. Regal Ransom looks to be the pace after his win in the UAE Derby and the only other one I can see is Join in the Dance who is on the bubble with getting a derby spot. This works out perfectly for Quality Road in my opinion. It looks like he will be able to do exactly what he has done in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby and sit right off the pace and take control at the top of the stretch. I believe he is going to get a “Smarty Jones” type trip when he sat off Lion Heart and kicked clear at the top of the stretch. Most importantly I believe Quality Road will get the jump on I Want Revenge and will have the lead at the 1/8 pole and as we have seen Quality Road doesn’t give up leads in the final 1/8.

Next I look for breeding. A 1 ¼ is a rare distance on the dirt in the US. Few races are contested over this distance which makes it tricky. When betting the derby you have to be 100% sure that your horse will not be affected with the distance or you’re wasting your time. First thing any handicapper will do is look at breeding. With Quality Road he is a son of Elusive Quality. Elusive Quality’s sons always get questioned when traveling this far. As we saw from Smarty Jones the 1 ¼ distance should not be an issue on the sire side. Even after Smarty Jones’ brilliant career it seems anytime Elusive Quality is the sire of a derby contender distance limitations seem to be a little bit of a question, but myself personally I think Quality Road can go as far as you need him to go.  But just in case you still had your doubts about Elusive Quality just take a look at his bloodlines. You will find the names of Native Dancer, Nashua, Bold Ruler, Tim Tam, Northern Dancer, Secretariat, Raise a Native, Mr Prospector, and Gone West. Works for me. Now let’s take a look at the dam side. Quality Roads mother Kobla is sired by Australian sire Strawberry Road. Strawberry Road sired the great mare Strawberry Reason that sired Eclipse winning 2 yr old Vindication. Then we can take a look deeper into her bloodlines. If you take a look at some of the names in her bloodlines you’ll see Bold Ruler, Native Dancer, Flower Bowl, Northern Dancer, Nijinsky, Raise A Native, and her grandsire on the dam side is Alydar. After looking at bloodlines I always like to look at the horse’s races and how he looks in the final 1/8 of a mile. Quality Road passes this test with FLYING COLORS. Take a look at Quality Road’s two stakes victories. In the Fountain of Youth, which was a very deep race, He took the lead from This Ones For Phil at the top of the stretch and kept going. He seemed to get stronger the closer he got to the wire. In his next start he had the big matchup with Dunkirk in the Florida Derby. At the top of the stretch after making a huge move Dunkirk actually took the lead for a short time, but it was short lived because Quality Road had A LOT more left in the tank and took the Florida Derby by 1 ¾. They could have gone around the track another time and Dunkirk was not going to go past Quality Road. In my opinion Quality Road has everything you look for when wanting a horse to get the 1 ¼ distance.

Connections are a very popular angle to go with when picking a horse. Handicappers are more likely to bet on a horse with familiar connections like Pletcher/Velazquez or Asmussen/Albarado then an unknown trainer and jockey. This is another plus when looking at Quality Road. First let’s look at his trainer Jimmy Jerkens. Mr. Jerkens is the son of the Famous trainer “The Giant Killer” Allen Jerkens. He won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2005 with Artie Schiller and the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile with Corinthian. He has also won graded stakes races such as the Ashland at Keeneland, the Met Mile at Belmont, and the Acorn stakes at Belmont. Quality Road’s jockey is Eclipse award winning jockey John Velazquez. Velazquez has won 5 Breeders Cup races to go along with his win in the Dubai World Cup the world’s wealthiest race. His biggest career moment came while riding champion filly Rags to Riches to a win in The Belmont Stakes against the colts including Horse of the Year Curlin. This trainer/jockey combination speaks for itself. Once again Quality Road passes the test with winning connections.

Recently a lot of doubt has been swirling around Quality Road and his quarter cracks. After a recent conversation with Top blacksmith Ian Mckinley I came away not worrying about his foot issues. He believed that his quarter cracks will not keep him out of the derby and he said he was “very optimistic” about his chances of making the race as long as he comes out of his breeze in good order tomorrow and there is no blood or soreness in the foot, which he is expecting him to. Obviously it would have been best if Quality Road could have come to the derby without any problems but unfortunately that’s just not how it usually works when you are dealing with race horses. It’s the nature of the business. I trust Mr. Jerkens will make the right call and wouldn’t run a less then 100% Quality Road in the derby, and I trust that with Ian Mckinley working on his quarter crack that come game time on Saturday that this quarter crack issue will be old news. When you really dissect all the different angles of Quality Road and his derby chances I believe that he just makes the most sense and is sitting on a PEAK performance for Saturday. We as handicappers can look at all the different angles we want to when deciding the outcome of a race, but when it comes down to it its all about a horses talent and heart. That is why come Saturday afternoon instead of having my head spinning in all different directions with all the different horses and angles that I could play I will be relaxing and waiting to see a horse that I believe is the next “Superstar” that we’ll see in this great game of horse racing. Good Luck!

NTRA: Win a Dream Vacation!

I stumbled upon a nice little sweepstakes as I was browsing news article this morning. It is called “NTRA: Win a Dream Vacation!” I have entered the contest, and I sure could use a vacation! The details are listed below.

It’s a racing fan’s dream come true. Pick from one of three destinations — Del Mar, Saratoga or Arlington — and get treated like a VIP. Your getaway weekend will include airfare, rental car, accommodations, special track access AND a $500 betting voucher. Plus you’ll have the chance to meet one-on-one with influential leaders in the world of thoroughbred racing.

If I win, I’m going to have a hard time deciding where to go. All three locations are magnificent and have unique appeals. If you held a gun to my head and forced me to choose I’d probably go with Del Mar. I’ve always wanted to visit the track, and I have never been to the west coast before. I’ve watched Del Mar on television many times; I  can only imagine how beautiful the track is in person.

Click here to enter!

Kentucky Derby Works

There is just one week left until the annual running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Nearly every horse that will be in the race  is already on track. This calm before the storm is pivotal for handicappers. If a horse is working up a storm it could a clue that he is ready to run his best race. Inversely, if a colt is working poorly it may be time to jump ship; before its too late.

Grade I Bluegrass Stakes winner General Quarters worked five furlongs in 1:01.79. From what I have been reading he has been having some trouble and doesn’t seem too happy at the moment. The exercise rider has been encouraging him but he doesn’t seeem too interested in working. I wouldn’t let this bug me too much. He is probably still recovering from his Bluegrass win, but should be 100% by the first Saturday in May. Let’s not forget, this is a colt who breezed :58 4/5 for five furlongs prior to that win. He will be fine.

The dynamic Dubai duo also turned in workouts. The trend of Regal Ransom working faster than Desert Party continued as the prior went in :59.13 and the latter worked in :59.44 for five furlongs. Both colts could run well in the Kentucky Derby, but horses shipping in from Dubai don’t have the greatest track record. There has never been a horse ship from Dubai and win the Kentucky Derby.

Quality Road has developed two quarter cracks since winning the Florida Derby. The first one has been fixed, but the other just recently developed. From all that I have heard the second one is fine also. Gradedstakes.com will have exclusive information regarding Quality Road later today. After Ian Mckinlay patched up the crack, Quality Road jogged 1 3/4 miles. He is scheduled to work on Monday.

Dunkirk, runner up in the Florida Derby, completed five furlongs in 1:01.05 in the company of stablemate Munnings. He is on the improve and is impeccably bred. Trainer Todd Pletcher will have the closer ready to roar with his best race on Saturday.

“I asked Patti to go in 1:01. She nailed it on the money,” trainer Todd Pletcher said from Florida. “I could not have been more pleased.”

Daily Racing Form: Musket Man worked six furlongs in 1:14.81, Papa Clem worked six furlongs in 1:15.25, and West Side Bernie went a half-mile in 48.22.

Grade III Withers Stakes

The Withers is an important race. It is commonly used as a stepping stone to the Preakness Stakes, as was the case when Bernardini won both races in 2006. The winners also produced 2008 Metropolitan Mile winner Divine Park. Last years winner, Harlem Rocker, would go on to win the Prince of Wales Stakes. He also took runner up honors in the Cigar Mile. The race is open to three-year-olds and will be contested at 1 mile over the dirt. Let’s take a look at the field.

#1 This Ones For Phil- Everyone, myself included, thought that 115 BSF in the SSM Dash was a fluke. He proved us wrong by producing a 107 BSF en route to a DQ win in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes. Ramon Dominguez is winning 30% of his races and absolutely OWNS  Aqueduct. The big question is can he transfer his form out of Florida?

#2 Gone Astray- Shug McGaughey’s horse ran a career best last out when beating older horses in allowance company. He won under wraps and earned a 91 BSF for that effort. Shug isn’t the type of guy to put a horse in stakes company if he isnt ready so you know he thinks a lot of this colt. The Dixie Union colt will have to move forward but he is undoubtedly in with a shot.

#3 Seal Team- Will be saddled by Steve Asmussen and that alone means he has a shot. His BSF’s  are clearly below this bunch, but this barn consistently produces results. I can’t see him doing much coming out of a Philadelphia Park allowance race, but there will go those who use him.

#4 Supreme Summit- Doug O’Neill ships this son of Cactus Ridge in from Santa Anita after winning his first two starts. Eibar Coa will be in the irons for the first time. O’Neill/Coa have only hooked up once producing a $14 winner. This colt won fairly easy last out while earning a 101 BSF. If he likes traditional dirt he will be stand a hell of a chance to win this race.

#5 Mr Fantasy- The son of E Dubai had his heart broken by Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge last out in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, but is still an excellent runner. This distance may be his niche. He has home field advantage, but Richard Migliore will have to work to avoid a speed duel. He is in with a big shot.

#6 Everyday Heroes- Tim Ritchey ships in this colt who is a perfect 3 for 3 racing exclusively at Oaklawn Park. He is bred for the distance, but the class hike is a bit of a concern. I like the fact that Caraballo made the trip to ride. He will need to relax the son of Awesome Again and make sure he doesn’t go too fast early on.

#7 Just a Coincidence-This Nick Zito trainee stepped up big time last out when he ran third in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, earning a BSF of 98. He will be cutting back to his preferred distance. Cornelio Velasquez will be picking up the mount. I’m sure he is a nice guy, but I’m far from a fan when it comes to his skills as a jockey.

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Who Do You Like?!

I can’t wait for the Kentucky Derby. There is nothing like watching them break from the gate on the first Saturday in May. Even better than watching the race, is being right about the winner. Why not have your say in the GradedStakes.Com Kentucky Derby Poll? You can find it on the right side of the page under the “Allhorseracing.com” advertisement.

138 votes are in so far, and Pioneerof The Nile has been leading the entire time. The Bob Baffert trained and Garrett Gomez piloted colt will certainly have a huge shot closing from the back, but I voted for a different colt. My top choice (I reserve the right to change my mind) is Quality Road. I’ve liked him since he won the Fountain of Youth. The fact that he toyed with that field tells me a lot. I think he could be something special, and I expect him to get a Smarty Jones type trip behind a speed horse.

So far the only colts who do not have a vote are Square Eddie, Join In The Dance, and recently added Summer Bird. I think all three could find a spot on the board, but it would an effort of historic proportions for any of the three to win. The most perplexing thing about the results thus far is that Win Willy is ranked sixth with ten. He ran great in the Rebel, but was exposed when finishing fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

The Kentucky Derby is like Christmas in May for me, and many other horse racing fans. May 2 is shaping up to be an epic day. I’m also an avid boxing fan, and I’m looking forward to Hatton vs Pacquaio later that night. Hopefully I can hit the Kentucky Derby, and Hitman Hatton will deliver a knockout. That would make for a truly perfect Kentucky Derby day.

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