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The Kentucky Derby will be contested for the 135th time on Saturday May 2. The dreams of one horse’s connections will come true, and nineteen others will be flattened.  This race is the reason jockeys, trainers, owners, and just about everyone involved in the sport find the strength to get up in the morning. It is my hope that one day I will be able to train/own a winner of the Kentucky Derby. I’ve been waiting all year and the time is finally upon us. Let’s take a look at some of the top contenders.

I had a hard time deciding who to make my top pick for this race, but I ultimately opted to go with the Larry Jones trainee Friesan Fire. He matured very well over the winter and is getting better with each and every race. He took the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his last start by more than seven lengths over eventual Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. He did so over a sloppy track, and it may just be wet when they Run for the Roses. He earned a great Beyer Speed Figure of 104 for that effort.

Prior to taking the Louisiana Derby, Friesan Fire found the winners circle in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes and the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes. He is a perfect three for three this year and should be set for a peak effort after resting for 7 weeks. He fired a bullet :57.80 five furlong move on Monday. All systems are go for trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez. Jones will be retiring at the end of 2009 so I would love nothing more than to see him ride off into the sunset with a win in the Kentucky Derby.

My second choice is Dunkirk. I don’t think much separates him from my choice to win, but he is a bit short on experience so that is why Friesan Fire got the edge. My top pick was Quality Road before he scratched, so it is logical that I would go to Dunkirk because he finished second to Quality Road in the Grade 1 Florida Derby last out.  He turned in a nice work since that race and should be good to go. Trainer Todd Pletcher stands a good chance to break his o for 21 streak in the Derby. Edgar Prado won this race in 2006 and will give him a hell of a ride.

I think Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, General Quarters, and Regal Ransom could all be in the mix for the exotics. I Want Revenge is easily the most appealing horse on paper, but he offers no value at 3-1, and I think he is eligible to bounce. General Quarters ran his best race on this surface in the Sam F. Davis and proved last out in the Bluegrass that he belongs. Hold Me Back has raced just twice this year and has a deep late kick. Chocolate Candy had the best race in the Santa Anita Derby and is eligible to improve. Regal Ransom is bred to go the distance, and won the UAE Derby in his last start.

All in all, this Kentucky Derby will be a very competitive race. Over 10 horses have a legit shot to find the winners circle. I believe the Trifecta is likely to pay over $4,000 for a $1 wager. The Superfecta has been great over the years and will likely pay over $10,000 for a $1 wager. Who do you like to win the Kentucky Derby? Leave a comment and tell me what you think!

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This post was done completely by a good friend of mine named Matt Jolly. I hope you like it!

With the Kentucky Derby a little more then a week away many handicappers are doing their homework trying to find that “Perfect” horse for them to take a stand on. All handicappers know that feeling when you find that horse that eases your nerves as they are loading into the starting gate. Unfortunately when it comes to The Kentucky Derby it becomes increasingly difficult to find a horse like that. With so many different angles one can play with a 20 horse field by the time you go to place a bet your head will be spinning. In my experiences, like anything else in life, you are better off going with your first instinct, but the problem is after listening for weeks of others opinions it is hard not to second guess your opinion. This year I have decided to stick to my guns with Quality Road and I will explain why I believe he is the horse that will make everyone’s life easier come May 2^nd.

When I look for a derby horse I look at a lot of different angles. I want a horse with the right running style. This changes from year to year depending on how the pace shapes up. In most years it always seems like there is always speed to spare, but this year looks to be different. With Papa Clem showing a different dimension in the Arkansas Derby, The Pamplemousse on the sidelines with an injury, and Old Fashioned retiring because of injury the pace of the race has taken a hit. Regal Ransom looks to be the pace after his win in the UAE Derby and the only other one I can see is Join in the Dance who is on the bubble with getting a derby spot. This works out perfectly for Quality Road in my opinion. It looks like he will be able to do exactly what he has done in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby and sit right off the pace and take control at the top of the stretch. I believe he is going to get a “Smarty Jones” type trip when he sat off Lion Heart and kicked clear at the top of the stretch. Most importantly I believe Quality Road will get the jump on I Want Revenge and will have the lead at the 1/8 pole and as we have seen Quality Road doesn’t give up leads in the final 1/8.

Next I look for breeding. A 1 ¼ is a rare distance on the dirt in the US. Few races are contested over this distance which makes it tricky. When betting the derby you have to be 100% sure that your horse will not be affected with the distance or you’re wasting your time. First thing any handicapper will do is look at breeding. With Quality Road he is a son of Elusive Quality. Elusive Quality’s sons always get questioned when traveling this far. As we saw from Smarty Jones the 1 ¼ distance should not be an issue on the sire side. Even after Smarty Jones’ brilliant career it seems anytime Elusive Quality is the sire of a derby contender distance limitations seem to be a little bit of a question, but myself personally I think Quality Road can go as far as you need him to go.  But just in case you still had your doubts about Elusive Quality just take a look at his bloodlines. You will find the names of Native Dancer, Nashua, Bold Ruler, Tim Tam, Northern Dancer, Secretariat, Raise a Native, Mr Prospector, and Gone West. Works for me. Now let’s take a look at the dam side. Quality Roads mother Kobla is sired by Australian sire Strawberry Road. Strawberry Road sired the great mare Strawberry Reason that sired Eclipse winning 2 yr old Vindication. Then we can take a look deeper into her bloodlines. If you take a look at some of the names in her bloodlines you’ll see Bold Ruler, Native Dancer, Flower Bowl, Northern Dancer, Nijinsky, Raise A Native, and her grandsire on the dam side is Alydar. After looking at bloodlines I always like to look at the horse’s races and how he looks in the final 1/8 of a mile. Quality Road passes this test with FLYING COLORS. Take a look at Quality Road’s two stakes victories. In the Fountain of Youth, which was a very deep race, He took the lead from This Ones For Phil at the top of the stretch and kept going. He seemed to get stronger the closer he got to the wire. In his next start he had the big matchup with Dunkirk in the Florida Derby. At the top of the stretch after making a huge move Dunkirk actually took the lead for a short time, but it was short lived because Quality Road had A LOT more left in the tank and took the Florida Derby by 1 ¾. They could have gone around the track another time and Dunkirk was not going to go past Quality Road. In my opinion Quality Road has everything you look for when wanting a horse to get the 1 ¼ distance.

Connections are a very popular angle to go with when picking a horse. Handicappers are more likely to bet on a horse with familiar connections like Pletcher/Velazquez or Asmussen/Albarado then an unknown trainer and jockey. This is another plus when looking at Quality Road. First let’s look at his trainer Jimmy Jerkens. Mr. Jerkens is the son of the Famous trainer “The Giant Killer” Allen Jerkens. He won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2005 with Artie Schiller and the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile with Corinthian. He has also won graded stakes races such as the Ashland at Keeneland, the Met Mile at Belmont, and the Acorn stakes at Belmont. Quality Road’s jockey is Eclipse award winning jockey John Velazquez. Velazquez has won 5 Breeders Cup races to go along with his win in the Dubai World Cup the world’s wealthiest race. His biggest career moment came while riding champion filly Rags to Riches to a win in The Belmont Stakes against the colts including Horse of the Year Curlin. This trainer/jockey combination speaks for itself. Once again Quality Road passes the test with winning connections.

Recently a lot of doubt has been swirling around Quality Road and his quarter cracks. After a recent conversation with Top blacksmith Ian Mckinley I came away not worrying about his foot issues. He believed that his quarter cracks will not keep him out of the derby and he said he was “very optimistic” about his chances of making the race as long as he comes out of his breeze in good order tomorrow and there is no blood or soreness in the foot, which he is expecting him to. Obviously it would have been best if Quality Road could have come to the derby without any problems but unfortunately that’s just not how it usually works when you are dealing with race horses. It’s the nature of the business. I trust Mr. Jerkens will make the right call and wouldn’t run a less then 100% Quality Road in the derby, and I trust that with Ian Mckinley working on his quarter crack that come game time on Saturday that this quarter crack issue will be old news. When you really dissect all the different angles of Quality Road and his derby chances I believe that he just makes the most sense and is sitting on a PEAK performance for Saturday. We as handicappers can look at all the different angles we want to when deciding the outcome of a race, but when it comes down to it its all about a horses talent and heart. That is why come Saturday afternoon instead of having my head spinning in all different directions with all the different horses and angles that I could play I will be relaxing and waiting to see a horse that I believe is the next “Superstar” that we’ll see in this great game of horse racing. Good Luck!

The Withers is an important race. It is commonly used as a stepping stone to the Preakness Stakes, as was the case when Bernardini won both races in 2006. The winners also produced 2008 Metropolitan Mile winner Divine Park. Last years winner, Harlem Rocker, would go on to win the Prince of Wales Stakes. He also took runner up honors in the Cigar Mile. The race is open to three-year-olds and will be contested at 1 mile over the dirt. Let’s take a look at the field.

#1 This Ones For Phil- Everyone, myself included, thought that 115 BSF in the SSM Dash was a fluke. He proved us wrong by producing a 107 BSF en route to a DQ win in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes. Ramon Dominguez is winning 30% of his races and absolutely OWNS  Aqueduct. The big question is can he transfer his form out of Florida?

#2 Gone Astray- Shug McGaughey’s horse ran a career best last out when beating older horses in allowance company. He won under wraps and earned a 91 BSF for that effort. Shug isn’t the type of guy to put a horse in stakes company if he isnt ready so you know he thinks a lot of this colt. The Dixie Union colt will have to move forward but he is undoubtedly in with a shot.

#3 Seal Team- Will be saddled by Steve Asmussen and that alone means he has a shot. His BSF’s  are clearly below this bunch, but this barn consistently produces results. I can’t see him doing much coming out of a Philadelphia Park allowance race, but there will go those who use him.

#4 Supreme Summit- Doug O’Neill ships this son of Cactus Ridge in from Santa Anita after winning his first two starts. Eibar Coa will be in the irons for the first time. O’Neill/Coa have only hooked up once producing a $14 winner. This colt won fairly easy last out while earning a 101 BSF. If he likes traditional dirt he will be stand a hell of a chance to win this race.

#5 Mr Fantasy- The son of E Dubai had his heart broken by Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge last out in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, but is still an excellent runner. This distance may be his niche. He has home field advantage, but Richard Migliore will have to work to avoid a speed duel. He is in with a big shot.

#6 Everyday Heroes- Tim Ritchey ships in this colt who is a perfect 3 for 3 racing exclusively at Oaklawn Park. He is bred for the distance, but the class hike is a bit of a concern. I like the fact that Caraballo made the trip to ride. He will need to relax the son of Awesome Again and make sure he doesn’t go too fast early on.

#7 Just a Coincidence-This Nick Zito trainee stepped up big time last out when he ran third in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, earning a BSF of 98. He will be cutting back to his preferred distance. Cornelio Velasquez will be picking up the mount. I’m sure he is a nice guy, but I’m far from a fan when it comes to his skills as a jockey.

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