We have all heard the saying “pace makes the race”. It holds true for every race, including the Kentucky Derby. It isn’t easy for a horse to go wire to wire, but it can be done as Winning Colors proved in 1988, and War Emblem showed again in 2002. You have to keep speed in mind when you bet on the Kentucky Derby. Let’s take a look at some of the speed balls who will be up front this year.

Quality Road- This guy always lays nears  or on the pace. The son of Elusive Quality can either take the lead or rate in second. He has really done well since adding lasix in the Fountain of Youth. He cruised to an easy win in that race earning a BSF of 113. He returned to take the Florida Derby, which proved he can route. Not only did he win, but he turned back the bid of the highly regarded Dunkik. He is in great hands with Jimmy Jerkens and jockey John Velazquez. I love his chances, and he will be a square price at 4-1 to 5-1.

Regal Ransom- I love the breeding on this colt. He is sired by Distorted Humor who produced 2003 Derby victor Funny Cide. He likes to be on or near the front end, and has plenty of staying power. He began his career in the United States, but will be making his first start here since September of 2008. He has been racing in Dubai, and captured the UAE Derby under jockey Alan Garcia. He could steal it on the front end at a price of 25-1 or more. If you bet him and he wins, your day of Kentucky Derby betting will be one to remember!

Papa Clem- Bejarano switched his style up last out and decided to close, but the this son of Smart Strike can go to the front if he wants. His last win in the Arkansas Derby was clearly his best race. He earned a 101 BSF for that effort. He is a beautiful mover, and has been working well. The Arkansas Derby has been a great prep in recent years producing runners like Smarty Jones, Lawyer Ron, and Curlin. Distance should be no problem, and the price will be right if he can get the job done. Look for him to be around 20-1.

Join In The Dance- He is currently on the bubble, but I expect him to get in. He showed how fast he is when he nearly went wire to wire in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. He was just barely beaten by Musket Man, who would win the Grade II Illinois Derby in his next outing. The son of Sky Mesa raced on the front end in the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes before fading to fifth. Its a horse race and anything can happen, but he will have to move up a lot to win. I expect his Kentucky Derby odds to be around 50-1.

The annual running of the Kentucky Derby is rapidly approaching. It is the second most wagered on sporting event of the year behind the Super Bowl. The exotic and straight wager payouts can be immense. If you don’t follow horse racing very closely you should still get in on the action, and if you are a prudent student of the sport you want to come with your best game. You certainly don’t want to miss the bus for this race. Let’s take a look at some of the long shots that could win, or make the Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta pay handsomely.

Chocolate Candy- This guy has been overshadowed by Pioneerof The Nile who will be one of the top choices in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Candy Ride was moving well in his last race, the Santa Anita Derby, and finished a game second. In terms of breeding, he is among the best when it comes to doing well at the 10 furlongs distance. His sire, Candy Ride, broke the track record in the 10 furlong Pacific Classic. His broodmare sire, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown. Chocolate Candy will likely go off at odds of 20-1 or more.

Square Eddie- It’s not often that you will find a Grade I winner in the Kentucky Derby at a great price, but that will be the case with this son of Smart Strike. He won the Grade I Lanes End Breeder’s Futurity at two, and also finished second in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Due to an injury, he has raced just twice this year. He finished second in the Grade II San Rafael, and third in the Grade II Lexington. He made a big move in the Lexington, and flattened out. That could be expected because he hadn’t raced in months. He has a big shot and will an even bigger price, perhaps more than 30-1.

General Quarters- You may have heard of this colt. He is the only horse in the barn of 78 year old Tom McCarthy, and was purchased for just $20k. He has been quite a Cinderella story and the slipper has fit thus far. He ran a huge race when he won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay, and did even better to take the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. The son of Sky Mesa just doesn’t seem to be getting much support despite doing very little wrong. If you like this guy you can expect at least 20-1.

Hold Me Back- Bill Mott has yet to win a Kentucky Derby, but he could have his horse with this son of Giant’s Causeway. He has raced just twice this year with a win in the Grade II Lanes End Stakes, and a runner up performance in the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes. He likes to rally from far back, and if the pace gets too hot he would be one of the prime beneficiaries. Jockey Kent Desormeaux is among the hottest in the country at the moment, and he won last year aboard Big Brown. I expect him to go off at odds of around 25-1.

Long shots CAN find the winners circle in the Kentucky Derby as Giacomo proved in 2005 when he won at odds of 50-1. It is usually best to find a more logical winner and box or key with bombs. Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby at odds of 5/2, but the second place finisher was 13-1, and the third place finisher was a whopping 27-1. This provided for a great Trifecta payout of $3,444. Don’t let the Kentucky Derby pass you by!

QUALITY ROAD (USA) b. C, 2006
DP = 7-3-11-1-0 (22) DI = 2.38   CD = 0.73 4 Starts, 3 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows
Career Earnings: $632,830 (Pedigreequery.com)

Quality Road will be entering the Kentucky Derby on the strength of his victory in the Florida Derby. The race produced last years winner, Big Brown, and has produced a total of 21 Kentucky Derby winners. The son of Elusive Quality has raced just four times in his career, but is already a multiple graded stakes winner. His win in the Grade II Fountain of Youth came against a very deep field that included Theregoesjojo, and Beethoven.

Quality Road is trained by James Jerkens, who is the son of the “Giant Killer” H. Allen Jerkens. James was an assistant to his father for twenty years until he started his own stable in 1997. It didn’t take him long to achieve success; he saddled Ninth Inning to a 7 1/4 length win in the Grade II Astarita Stakes the very year he began training. In 2004 he got his first Breeders Cup winner when Artie Schiller took the Breeders Cup Mile. His most recent success has come with Corinthian and Zaftig. Corinthian romped home in the inaugral running of the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, and took the Grade I Metropolitan Mile earlier that year. Zaftig dusted Indian Blessing in the Grade I Acorn Stakes. Quality Road is clearly in capable hands.

I love Quality Road’s breeding. His sire, Elusive Quality, holds the world record for one mile on the turf with a time of 1:31.06 in the Grade III Poker Handicap. He also won the Grade III Jaipur Stakes, and finished second in the Grade II King’s Bishop Stakes. His best progeny include Smarty Jones who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before falling just short in the Belmont Stakes, and Breeders Cup Classic winner Raven’s Pass. He is also the sire of Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Maryfield. The best thing I have noticed about Elusive Quality runners is their tactical speed, which will be a big asset to Quality Road in the Kentucky Derby.

Some may think Elusive Quality runners don’t have enough stamina, but broodmare sire Strawberry Road makes up for that. He was a multiple Group I winner in Australia, and was the runner up in the Breeders Cup Turf at six years of age. Although his career as a stud was cut short, he sired three Breeders Cup winners, and was the dam sire of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Vindication. Quality Road also has champion Alydar on his mares side.

This is the race that made many people stop and say “Okay…this colt might be for real”. Not only did he topple a deep field, but he did so with a fair amount of ease. That race was his first time with lasix, and easily his best at that point. He stalked the pace very closely, and took over near the top of the stretch. He completed the 1 mile distance in a smoking fast 1:35. Quality Road earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 113 for his win in the Fountain of Youth.

The Fountain of Youth was also the first time John Velazquez was in the irons for Quality Road.  John Velazquez began riding in his native Puerto Rico before coming to the United States. His jockey agent is hall of fame rider Angel Cordero Jr., and he has clearly benefited from their relationship. He has over 4,000 wins, including seven Breeders Cup victories, and a win in the Belmont Stakes. His best mounts include Rags to Riches, Speightstown, Indian Blessing, Commentator, and Ashado. I count John Velazquez among my top five best active jockeys. If Quality Road doesn’t win the Kentucky Derby, I doubt it will be because of John Velazquez.

The Florida Derby revealed much about Quality Road. He showed the same running style as he had in the past, and he broke the track record stopping the clock in 1:47 3/5 for the 9 furlongs distance. His BSF of 111 was very good. I love how Dunkirk hooked him, and he turned him away. Battling back when another horse draws even is a mark of a champion. This win also shows us that distance will not be a concern for Quality Road.

Quality Road is owned by Edward Evans, who grew up in racing. Evan’s father bred Kentucky Derby winner Pleasant Colony. Evans himself bred Breeders Cup Classic winner Saint Liam. He has been the top owner at Aqueduct several times in the past. Evans earned his undergraduate from Yale, and his business degree from Harvard. While he has had some big moments in the past, nothing would come close to Quality Road winning the Kentucky Derby. I think he stands a hell of a chance.

I had quite a weird dream last night. I was watching the Kentucky Derby, or atleast I think I was, and Charitable Man pulled the upset. That wont happen of course, because he is no longer under consideration for the race. However, the connections are thinking of pointing to the Preakness. Maybe THAT was the race I was supposedly watching in my dreams?! Regardless, I think its best I not write late at night before going to sleep unless I wish to incur more dreams of this sort.

As you can see, I’ve got the Kentucky Derby at the forefront of my mind, as do many of you. We will need many resources to help us pick a winner on the first Saturday in May. Below are a few useful links.

• BRISnet Kentucky Derby Past Performances
• Kentuckyderby.com
• DRF Kentucky Derby Workout Report
• DRF Kentucky Derby Statistics

The BRIS PPs are not quite as good as DRF’s, but they get the job done. I’ve handicapped over 100 races using them, and I have a lot of faith in them. I only prefer DRF because that is what I started with, and what I am most accustomed to. Kentuckyderby.com has great insight from analysts like Jill Byrne, and John Asher. It also features information about all of the horses, news, and information about attending the race. The DRF Workout Report comes from Churchill Downs and features great information about who is handling the track well, and who isnt. The statistics page features information like post win percentage, important prep races, fastest times, and much more.

I’m going to continue doing profiles of the Kentucky Derby contenders. You can find the first one about I Want Revenge by clicking here.

I Want Revenge stormed on to the Kentucky Derby scene with a powerful win in the Gotham Stakes. He took that race by about eight lengths and was nothing short of awe inspiring. The son of Stephen Got Even followed that performance up with a win in the Wood Memorial, despite completely missing the break. He is the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Jeff Mullins is not the most scrupulous of horsemen, but he knows how to get the job done. He began training at the age of 17, and he has saddled over 1,000 winners in his career. He has been to the Kentucky Derby five times in the past. His best finish came with Buzzard Bay who ran fifth in 2005.  The trainer has had four starters in the Breeders Cup, with his best finish coming in the 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies when Wild Fit ran second. Mullins has finished at the top of the trainer standings at the major southern California tracks more than once, and is virtually always among the the top five. I Want Revenge is undoubtedly in capable hands.

I Want Revenge is clearly bred to go long. His sire, Stephen Got Even, was a winner of the Lanes End Stakes, and the Donn Handicap. He also finished fourth in the Preakness. His progeny include Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy, and Sweet Vendetta who won the Black Eyed Susan. His grand sire, A.P. Indy, is among my favorite sires of all time. I Want Revenge is from an Argentinean mare who was a Group I winner in her country. Her sire was Roy, a son of Fappiano.

The Gotham Stakes served as a coming out party for I Want Revenge. Many bettors were backing Haynesfield and Mr. Fantasy that day, but I Want Revenge was clearly the best winning by over eight lengths. Joe Talamo was quoted as saying that the colt didn’t break a sweat that day. The Gotham showed a new side of the son of Stephen Got Even, as he laid closer to the pace then he had in previous stakes races; it certainly worked out. He earned a BRIS figure of 113 for this race.

I Want Revenge is owned primarily by David J. Lanzman and IEAH Stables. Lanzman owns Squirtle Squirt, winner of the 2001 Breeders Cup Sprint and Kings Bishop Stakes. The horse was named after his son’s favorite Pokemon character. After I Want Revenge won the Gotham Stakes, Lanzman sold a 50% interest to IEAH Stables. You probably remember them; they won the Kentucky Derby with Big Brown last year. Other IEAH Stables members include Stardom Bound and Patena.

Some may question the skills of eighteen year old jockey Joe Talamo, but I am certainly not among them. The Cajun has posted wins in the Grade I Santa Maria Handicap, and the Grade I Yellow Ribbon Stakes. He was the Champion Apprentice in 2007. Talamo even had a mount in the 2007 edition of the Japan Cup. Some of his most well known mounts include Nashoba’s Key, Santa Teresita, and Nownownow. He proved that he can keep a cool head when things dont go as planned in the Wood Memorial after I Want Revenge missed the break. If I Want Revenge is your pick for the Kentucky Derby, then you have nothing to worry about with Joe Talamo.

The video above is a great example of how skilled I Want Revenge has become. Although the Wood Memorial wasn’t the strongest field, it still took a lot to overcome a start like that. The race reaffirmed that he can run well on traditional dirt, and that he appreciates more distance. His BRIS figures of 113 for the Gotham and 109 for the Wood Memorial are the highest, and third highest of any horse who will race in the Kentucky Derby. It would come as no surprise to see this colt draped in roses on the first Satuday in May.