May 18, 2012

Three-Year-Olds Scatter

The Kentucky Derby is finally behind us, and the connections of many prominent horses have decided where their stars will be headed next. Let’s take look.

General Quarters- Tom McCarthy has indicated that is highly probable that his next start will come in the Preakness. This is a good move, because he tends to run better after having a bad race.

Musket Man- After finishing a close third in the Kentucky Derby, he is headed to the Preakness Stakes. He will not race in the Belmont Stakes. The main goal for him this summer is going to be the Haskell Invitational.

I Want Revenge- Sadly, he is injured and will be sidelined for the rest of the year. I wish him a speedy recovery!

Mr. Fantasy- The E. Dubai colt is skipping the Preakness in favor of the Metropolitan Mile. His value as a stallion prospect will sky rocket if he can win that race. The Woody Stephens has also been mentioned as a possibility.

Join In The Dance- Co-owner Reagan Swinbank informed he that this colt is headed to the Northern Dancer at Churchill Downs. I think the distance will suit him well and he should be tough.

Papa Clem- After running great in the Kentucky Derby, he is Preakness bound.

Mine That Bird- The shocking winner of the Kentucky Derby will seek to take the second leg of the Triple Crown at Pimlico Racecourse.

Rachel Alexandra- The Acorn was mentioned as the target prior to her sale to Stonestreet, but I have a feeling she is headed to the Preakness or the Belmont Stakes.

Summer Bird- I believe the connections are targeting the Belmont Stakes, but I’m not for sure.

Desert Party- Will undergo surgery for a displaced chip.

Big Drama- He was disqualified from first last out in the Swale Stakes, and is now headed for the Preakness.

Quality Road- I have heard that the Florida Derby winner might be able to make the Belmont Stakes if training continues to go smoothly.

West Side Bernie- Has been purchased by Godolphin and will be heading to Dubai soon.

Jess Jackson purchases Rachel Alexandra

I had a feeling this might happen. After winning the Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra has been sold to Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stables. She will be bred to two time Horse of the Year, Curlin at the conclusion of her racing career. I listened to an interview with Jackson on TVG earlier today, and he said it is very possible she will race beyond the age of three.  Click here to read more.

Can you imagine how much a Curlin x Rachel Alexandra foal would be worth? It’s scary to think about how fast it could be if the blood translates to speed, which isnt always the case. I feel bad for trainer Hal Wiggins, who will be losing the filly. She will be moving to the barn of Steve Asmussen, who trained Curlin for Jackson.

I have to think Robby Albarado is going to get the mount, but I believe it would be a grave mistake to remove the ultra hot Calvin Borel. While I’m not a huge Calvin fan, he is already in a groove with the filly, and has yet to lose while riding her. I wish the new connections the best of luck, and I hope to see her in the Preakness or Belmont Stakes!

Big Pools at Churchill Downs

The manic Kentucky Derby on Saturday left us with a carryover in the Pick Six and Super High 5 wagers at Churchill Downs. The carryover for the High 5 wager is $251,856 and the Pick Six will have a carryover of $781,146. The races in the Pick Six sequence include a 9,10, and 12 horse field. Gatorize looks like she could be a solid single in the second leg.

The Super High 5 race brings bad memories for this handicapper. Jolly Ol’ Nick will be racing against Nafass. This past winter I keyed Nick over several horses in the Superfecta, only to have Nafass beat him by a nose. I can’t remember how much the Superfecta paid, but it was several thousand if I recall correctly. The field looks evenly matched, so hitting the High 5 will not be an easy task.

Looking for value is very important in horse racing, and it will certainly be there for these wagers on Wednesday.

Almost Immortal, Part I

Spectacular Bid (1979)- This horse is one of the greatest to step on the track. He won 26 of 30 races over his career and collected a then record $2,781,607. He counts the Santa Anita Handicap and the Strub series among his most impressive wins. After winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, he lost in the Belmont after a freak accident in the paddock in which he stepped on a safety pin. Some also question the ride from jockey Ronnie Franklin. He lost the mount, and Bill Shoemaker rode Spectacular Bid for the rest of his career. Shoemaker says Spectacular Bid is the best horse he ever rode.

Pleasant Colony (1981)- Perhaps more notable for his accomplishments as a sire, this one finished third in the Belmont Stakes. He would go on to win the Woodward after his Triple Crown attempt. He sired 5 champions, including Pleasant Tap and Pleasantly Perfect.

Alysheba (1987)- This one had a less than spectacular 2 year old season and ended up in the Kentucky Derby with only one victory. He won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but ran a dull 4th in the Belmont after racing without Lasix which was banned in New York at the time. He would go on to be a very successful older horse. His major wins include the Santa Anita Handicap, Woodward and Breeder’s Cup Classic. Jockey Chris McCarron told me that Alysheba is the best horse he ever sat on.

Sunday Silence (1989)
- Perhaps one of the most balanced horses of all time. Not only was he amazing on the track, but he was Japan’s leading sire for many years. His stretch duel with Easy Goer in the Preakness is the favorite race of many fans. After beating Easy Goer twice, he was crushed by his foe in the Belmont. Sunday Silence would have the last laugh, defeating Easy Goer in what shaped up as another dramatic finish in the Breeders Cup Classic.
Silver Charm (1997)- I can remember Gary Stevens saying how let down he was when this horse didn’t win the Triple Crown. He also said this was the best horse he ever rode if I recall correctly. This horse was Bob Baffert’s first Kentucky Derby winner. After impressive victories in the first two legs of the Triple Crown he finished second in the Belmont. He would go on to win the Clark Handicap, Kentucky Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup. He now stands in Japan.

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Kentucky Derby Recap

I could use several words to describe how I felt after the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby.Some of those descriptors are shocked, stunned, and astounded. How could a geldng who finished off the board in the Sunland Derby with a career high BSF of 81 power home by 6 3/4 lengths in the prestigious and coveted Kentucky Derby? The answer is quite simple. I don’t know; and I don’t think anyone else knows either.

Mine That Bird, ridden by Calvin Borel, skimmed the rail the whole way and came with a powerful run late in the race. When I saw him charging through on the rail, I was thinking “who the hell is that?!”. Even Tom Durkin had to do a double take when he first caught sight of the gelding. Pioneerof The Nile put in a great run to finish second and really won me over. I wont doubt him any longer.

Trainer Chip Wooley didn’t seem too happy after the race. Perhaps it was because his horse had been dismissed? If that is the reason, what was he expecting? I know if I were in his shoes I’d be crying tears of joy, and I think just about anyone else would too.

It almost seems as if there wasn’t a Kentucky Derby this year. Congratulations to the connections, but I doubt this gelding will ever win another major race again. From what  I have heard, they will continue onward to the Preakness.

Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra earned a BSF of 108, while the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird registered a 105. When was the last time the Kentucky Oaks winner got a higher BSF than the Kentucky Derby winner? That amazes me. Rachel Alexandra would’ve opened up on this bunch. I really hope the connections consider a run in the Preakness of Belmont Stakes.

One of the biggest things I will take away from this Kentucky Derby is not to overplay pedigree. I threw out Musket Man due to his sire, Yonaguska, and he was still able to finish third. There is an old saying I heard long ago; fast is fast. What are your thoughts? Leave a comment and let me know.

Bring on the Preakness.

I Want Revenge scratches from Kentucky Derby

Churchill Downs officials confirmed trainer Jeff Mullins has scratched I Want Revenge from the May 2 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). A press conference will be held at 9 a.m. (Blood Horse)

This thing is now wide open. I don’t have time to write much because I’m headed to the track right now, but this sure is a shame. Click here to read more.

Good luck with your wagering today!