Horse Racing New Year Resolutions

I find that its great to set goals. The New Year is the perfect time to do so. Here a couple that I have as a horse player for the coming year.

1. I want to start playing more trifectas. I barely bet them and I had two signers this year that were trifectas. They offer great value.

2.  Stop betting races just to bet them. Sometimes when I’m at the track I’ll get bored and go bet a race just to be betting it. This is a waste of money. If I’m not going to make a strong effort to handicap a race then I have no business wagering on it; period.

3. Wager on primarly stakes races. Thats where I do my best work. My handicapping of a graded race is ten times better than that of a 5-10 claimer. I need to stay away from those races.

4. Get a few guys together and put $100 in a Pick 6 ticket. I’ve had 5 of 6 on tickets that only cost me $10-30 several times. I’ve been really close nearly every time I’ve tried. I think if I have a decent sized budget I could take one down.

5. Visit Indiana Downs. I live within 2 hours of the track and have never been. I wouldn’t mind going for the Indiana Derby next year.

6. Go to the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup. I was able to make it to the ‘06 Breeders Cup and I plan on going again this year. The Kentucky Derby will be a new experience. I just hope I can actually watch the race if I’m there.

What are some of your goals for the coming year?

M One Rifle fires in Malibu; Lava Man returns in San Gabriel

I had a really good feeling about M One Rifle in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes. I thought that he was lone speed and he set unpressed fractions and won by an easy two and a half lengths. I bet him heavily and I was surprised that I got such a good price as he paid $16.20 for a $2 win wager. I was able to cash the Pick 4 where I had him singled along several other bets thanks to him. M One Rifle has a bright career ahead of him!

I’m looking forward to watching Lava Man race in the Grade 2 San Gabriel over 9 furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita tomorrow. He was one of my favorite horses before he was retired over a year ago. This will be one of the few occasions where I put a few bucks on a horse and hope he wins without actually handicapping the race. I love Lava Man, and I hope he blows their doors off in the comeback. However, I don’t expect that to happen. He is bound to be a bit rusty in the return. I just hope the ol’ boy stays sound and runs a strong race.

I’d love to write more, but Turfway Park is calling my name as we speak! Check back tonight and tomorrow morning for more!

Video Preview of the 2009 Malibu Stakes featuring M One Rifle and Misremembered

I hope you enjoy the video, and as always I welcome any and all comments.

Selection: M One Rifle

Blind Luck dazzles in Hollywood Starlet

Blind Luck provided a jaw dropping performance as she drew off by seven lengths under Rafael Bejarano in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes this weekend. The two-year-old daughter of Pollard’s Vision more than made amends for falling short in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies last out. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and jockey Rafael Bejerano both expected a good run from the filly, but even they were surprised at how well she ran. She is expected to make her next start in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes Stakes in February.

I hadn’t heard of Blind Luck’s sire, so I decided to do a little investigating. Pollard’s Vision is relatively new on the sire scene. He stands in Midway, KY for Wintergreen Stallion Station. Currently an 8-year-old, he is a son of Carson City. He won first out at Saratoga by a whopping 12 1/2 lengths. His best win came in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby. He also won three Grade 3’s during his career and finished second in the Grade 1 Pimlico Special. Blind Luck is far and away the best thing he has produced so far.

My top selection, Amen Hallelujah, finished third. She prompted the pace under jockey Alex Solis, but came up short when it was time to make a move. She didn’t run too bad considering that this was her first race since the Alcibiades. I definitely think she will be a good bet next time out. Miss Heather Lee rallied along the rail to get second at 19-1 for Bob Baffert. She seems to be improving. Baffert does very well with this type of runner.

Beautician went off the favorite and finished last for trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Garrett Gomez. I’m not sure what went wrong with her, but I expect her to come back strong next out. I would think that the blinkers are going to come off. A bit of rest will probably do the trick.

I’m eagarly looking forward to next weeks races. Any early thoughts on the WL McKnight Handicap? Leave a comment and be heard!

Beautician and Blind Luck set to do battle in Hollywood Starlet

This year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies was one of the best races of the year. Julien Leparoux masterfully guided She Be Wild up the rail and narrowly bested Beautician and Blind Luck for the top honors. She Be Wild is taking a much deserved rest, but Beautician and Blind Luck are back at it in the Hollywood Starlet. The fillies were separated by a mere head last out. Amen Hallelujah, Bickersons, and Rose Catherine will also vie for the win in this race.

The Hollywood Starlet has been a very strong race in years past. It is a Grade I event for two-year-old fillies over the main track at Hollywood Park over the distance of 8.5 furlongs. Laragh won the race last year after finishing third as the favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in her last start. Two years ago it was Country Star who won the race. The victory came in stakes record breaking fashion, and it was her second Grade I in just three starts. Corey Nakatani holds the record for wins by a jockey at four. D Wayne Lukas has the most wins by a trainer at five, including four in a row.

Amen Hallelujah looks like a solid play here and she will be my top selection. The daughter of Montbrook has progressed strongly since racing for a tag of $40,000 in July. She broke her maiden going six furlongs at Arlington, and followed that win up with an easy score in optional claiming company. Her last race was a third place finish in the Alcibiades at Keeneland. She was only two lengths behind the winner. The filly that ran second in that race, She Be Wild, came back to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. She enters the race fresh and offers good value at the morning line price of 4-1.

Trainer Ken McPeek has decided to add blinkers for Beautician after she ran second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies last out. I’m a fan of the saying “if its not broke then don’t fix it”. I don’t really get why he is throwing them on. McPeek is no fool and I’m sure he has a good reason; I just don’t know what it is. She seemed to respond to the extra distance in her last two races. She spent most of the summer playing second fiddle to Hot Dixie Chick, but Beautician has a very good chance to break through with a win here. Don’t be surprised to see her run strong.

The favored Blind Luck couldn’t get it done last out, but looks strong here. The Hollendorfer trainee will have Rafeal Bejarano in the irons for the first time. She is working strongly and should get a strong pace to chase. If things are fast early then the closer could deliver a swift knockout punch to the field. Bejarano has been riding well this week and he does well on closers. She is a must use on top of all exotic wagers.

Rose Catherine actually regressed in terms of Beyer Speed Figures last out even though she was second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She earned a 91 figure in her maiden breaking win two back, but only got an 83 for her last effort. The speed ball is a daughter of Speightown. She will be making her first start over a synthetic track. Turf horses usually handle synthetic so I don’t expect that to effect her. However, the distance could be a slight problem. She needs to set unpressed and easy fractions to have a chance to win. Javier Castellano will be in the irons for Todd Pletcher.

Who do you like in the Hollywood Starlet?!

Video Preview of the $750k CashCall Futurity

Here is a brief video of me talking about the CashCall Futurity. This is the first video that I’ve ever made, and I plan on making many more. Click here to read the article I did on the race earlier today. I welcome your thoughts, and I hope that you enjoy the video!

Lookin At Lucky tops field of 8 for CashCall Futurity

 

Breeders Cup Juvenile runner up Lookin At Lucky is the most notable of eight entries for the CashCall Futurity this weekend at Hollywood Park. Lookin At Lucky is trained by Bob Baffert who has won the race several times including last year with Pioneerof The Nile. The race is for open for two-year-olds and is raced at the distance of 8.5 furlongs. The purse is a whopping $750,000 and the winner will have more than enough earnings to start in next years Kentucky Derby.

Formerly known as the Hollywood Futurity, the race has produced six Kentucky Derby winners since it began in 1981. These winners are Gato Del Sol, Ferdinand, Alysheba, Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet, and Giacomo. Other notable winners include Snow Chief, AP Indy, Best Pal, and Point Given. 1994 winner Afternoon Deelites holds the stakes record with a time of 1:40.74. Alex Solis and Laffit Pincay, Jr. share the record for most wins by a jockey at a 4. Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas are tied for most wins by a trainer at 4, and a win this year would give Baffert sole possession of this title.

Lookin At Lucky was a perfect four for four with wins in the Norfolk Stakes and Del Mar Futurity before just missing longshot winner Vale of York in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Bob Baffert says that the son of Smart Strike is the best two-year-old he has trained in the last five years. His pedigree is very solid and he has showed tons of ability. If he is able to continue progressing at the rate he has then he will be a force not only in this race, but on the First Saturday in May. He has done little wrong thus far in his short career, and I expect him to take care of business in this one.

His best competition will likely come in the form of Dixiana Breeders Futurity winner Noble’s Promise who finished third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last out.  Noble’s Promise is a son of Saratoga Special winner Cuvee. He has a nice stalking style and I expect him to move forward in this spot. He looked very good striking the lead in the stretch drive of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but was unable to hold off Vale of York and Lookin At Lucky while losing by about three quarters of a length. Robby Albarado will replace Willie Martinez in the irons. I must critizicize this move, because Martinez has done very well with the colt. He could give the colt a ride that is as good or better than Albarado will. Look for him to run a big race.

I was very surprised when Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity runner up Make Music For Me finished sixth in a maiden special weight last out. The colt is tremedously talented, but his closing style was rendered useless after a dawdling pace was set. He will need a fast pace to run well here and winning is going to be a lot to ask. I think it would be more useful to get a win under his belt in a lesser race before trying the big boys again. However, make no mistake about it; this colt will be a stakes winner before its all said and done. Mike Smith will ride, and he does well with this style of runner.

Bob Baffert will also send out The Program and Marcello. Both appear to be a notch below the top two contenders, but there is no telling when a horse is going to “wake up” when they are this young. Marcello was second in the Grade 3 Generous Stakes over the turf course last out. He has won twice over synthetic surfaces, but will need to move forward to make an impact here. Jose Valdivia will ride. The Program was most recently second in an allowance after breaking his maiden. Victor Espinoza will replace Martin Garcia in the irons.

Seattle Ruler, Brady Blue Eyes, and Wildlee Special round out the field. I’ll go with Lookin at Lucky as my top pick. I think he is just too good for this field. Who do you like?!

Mast Track ends drought in Native Diver

I was greatly looking forward to the Native Diver Handicap this past weekend, because I thought I would get to see Lava Man race for the first time in nearly 17 months. That wasn’t to be, because trainer Doug O’Neill scratched the gelding from the race because of rain. The field was still strong with Mast Track, Neko Bay, Tres Borrachos, Square Eddie, and High Court Drama as the contestants. Doug O’Neill trained High Court Drama and Square Eddie.

2008 Hollywood Gold Cup winner Mast Track was able to take an easy lead from Tres Borrachos, and ended up winning the race in relative ease under jockey Rafael Bejarano. He paid $8.20 to win, which is a very solid price on him considering that it was only a five horse field. I was fortunate enough to have a $50 win bet on the son of Mizzen Mast.

Mast Track was purchased by Stronach Stables the day before the race. He was previously owned and trained by the late Robert Frankel. I hope to see him continue to run strong, and I hope that he will be a force in California in 2010. High Court Drama was along for second after winning his first U.S. startlast out. He looks to have a promising future on either the synthetic or turf course.

The other big story from this weekend involves an ex-claimer winning a graded stakes race. Rodman was racing for a $35k tag six months ago, and is now a candidate for the Donn Handicap after an easy win in the Queens County Handicap. He went wire to wire and beat a good horse in second place finisher Researcher. Storm Play was also in the race, but wasn’t much of a factor.

Did anything happen in the horse racing world that you’d like to discuss? Leave a comment and let me know!

Moment of the Year? Mine That Bird winning the Kentucky Derby

The NTRA Moment of the Year has everyone reflecting on what a wonderful year 2009 has been. We got to see two magnificent females win many Grade 1 races, and a shocker on the First Saturday in May. This year was far and away more  exciting than the one that preceded it. I’m already looking forward to 2010, but its always nice to take some time to reflect. What do you think was the best or most memorable moment of 2009? For me, it is an easy choice. Mine That Bird winning the Kentucky Derby.

As long as I live, I will never forget the utter shock I felt as Calvin Borel surged up the rail on Mine That Bird to win going away in the Kentucky Derby. I had no idea who the horse was at first glance, and I think the same can be said for the track announcer. I spent many hours of the following days trying to figure how it could’ve possibly happened. A horse that had lost his last race at Sunland had won the Kentucky Derby. I also recall trainer Benny Wooley hobbling to the winners circle, acting as if he wasn’t surprised a single bit. After that happened I can truly say that ANYTHING can happen in this game.

After Mine That Bird’s victory, three other races come to mind. The first would be Well Armed drawing off to a very easy victory in the Dubai World Cup under jockey Aarron Gryder. I felt he had a great chance to win at 10-1, but instead of betting the last $10 in my online wagering account on him to win, I wheeled him over the field. Unfortunately for me, one of the longest shots in the race ran second, and I didn’t have him. If I had just $4 more I would’ve hit the $1 exacta for $500. Needless to say, that was a tough one to miss.

Another moment that comes to mind this year is Rachel Alexandra countless awe inspiring races. She ran several strong races, but the two that impressed me the most were  the Kentucky Oaks and the Woodward. True, the Oaks field wasn’t the greatest ever assembled, but she couldn’t have won any easier than she did. The margin of victory was simply incredible. I love the Woodward also. Rachel Alexandra set fast fractions, and it looked like she would be passed coming for home. I had a bad feeling in my stomach as I watched live, thinking the filly would finally lose. However, she re rallied and got the win. She is truly one of the greatest fillies to have ever raced.

Just as Rachel Alexandra brightened 2009, so did Zenyatta. While I opposed her in most of her races from a wagering standpoint, that doesn’t take away from her greatness. I simply couldn’t take her at short odds, and I didn’t think she could win the Classic. I couldn’t have been any more wrong as she stormed down the lane in the Breeders Cup Classic in what was a visually easy win. We were truly blessed this year to see a filly AND mare that will be counted among the all time greats.

What made 2009 special for you? What is your moment of the year? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!