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Kentucky Derby Top 10 List
March 30, 2010 By Leave a Comment
The Kentucky Derby is rapidly approaching. Several of the top prep races have already been contested and several of the horses that will be in that gate on the First Saturday in May have already had their final preparatory race. Plenty of others have not so there is still much to be decided. Let’s take a look at some of the top contenders.
#1 Lookin at Lucky- The defending juvenile champion has done very little wrong in his career. If not for a poor trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he would be undefeated. He is a son of Smart Strike so his pedigree is top notch. Trainer Bob Baffert has taken the roses three times (Real Quiet, Silver Charm, War Emblem), which means this colt couldn’t be in better hands. I love the fact that his highest Beyer Speed Figure was recorded on dirt when he won the Rebel Stakes after a trip from hell. Look for a huge effort in the Santa Anita Derby if that is his next race.
#2 Odysseus- Have you seen this son of Malibu Moon’s last two races? If not then I suggest you head over to YouTube and check him out. He crushed an allowance field by 15 lengths two back at Tampa Bay Downs. After that win he returned in the Tampa Bay Derby. He appeared finished at the top of the stretch, but came on again to register a narrow victory. He is visually impressive and “looks the part” so to speak. He is expected to race in the Bluegrass Stakes. Be on the watch for him.
#3 Sidney’s Candy- I love the way this horse won easily in his last two races. He took the San Vicente easily. He returned for another easy score in the San Felipe. The latter was his first try around two turns. Some question his ability to stay, but I don’t think he will have a problem being a son of Candy Ride. It’s hard to say how good he is at this point, but he will get the acid test next out in the Santa Anita Derby.
#4 Awesome Act- I love the way he skipped over the track in his Gotham win. That was his first race of the year. The son of Awesome Again seems to be getting good at the right time for his European connections. He ended his two-year-old campaign with a fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Look for him in the Wood Memorial.
#5 Eskendereya- This colt is atop many Kentucky Derby lists, but I have to see him reproduce his Fountain of Youth effort before I get on board. I view him as a Bellamy Road type of colt in the sense that while Bellamy Road was an incredible runner, he didn’t show up on Kentucky Derby day. I can see that happening with this one. If he impresses in the Wood Memorial I’ll hop on the bandwagon, but until then I prefer the top 4 over him.
#6 Interactif- He is a stakes winner on the turf for trainer Todd Pletcher. His first start over the synthetic resulted in a second place finish behind Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe. He was moving well late despite the fact that he had no fractions to chase. He will return in the Bluegrass Stakes.
#7 Schoolyard Dreams- I loved his big move in the Tampa Bay Derby. He was narrowly defeated by Odysseus in that race. He is handled by Derek Ryan who trained 2009 Illinois Derby winner Musket Man. His next start will come in the Wood Memorial.
#8 Jackson Bend- He is in perfect hands with Nick Zito. He ran into a horse that wasn’t going to lose last out when he was second to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth. It will be interesting to see how Calvin Borel handles him in the Wood.
#9 Caracortado- How can you knock a gelding that has lost just once? Throw in the fact that he lost due to a slow pace and he looks even better. I love the way he rolled up on the pacesetters in his Robert B. Lewis win. He will need a strong performance in the Santa Anita Derby to stay on track for the First Saturday in May.
#10 Noble’s Promise- The son of Cuvee was last seen finishing a close second to Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes. He could make some noise in his next start which in all likelihood will be the first time he hasn’t competed against “Lucky” since his triumph in the Futurity at Keeneland.
Follow the 2010 Kentucky Derby contenders and the upcoming prep races next week on Stakes Tracker on Horse Racing Nation:
- 2010 Santa Anita Derby
- 2010 Wood Memorial
- 2010 Illinois Derby
This list will change drastically after the Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes, and Illinois Derby are conducted this weekend. I firmly believe that the winner of the Kentucky Derby will come from one of those two races, or the Santa Anita Derby. I’m putting very little stock in the Lanes End, Florida Derby, Sunland Derby, and Louisiana Derby. I believe the winners of those races are a cut below those on this list. The most important question still remains; who do YOU like?!
Kentucky Derby Top 5 List
March 29, 2010 By 10 Comments
The Kentucky Derby is almost here. The First Saturday in May is one month from Thursday. Several key preps have yet to be conducted and a lot will shake out between now and then. Let’s take a look at my top 5 contenders at this point. Feel free to share your thoughts and input by leaving a comment.
#1 Lookin at Lucky- The Juvenile Champ has done very little wrong in his career. He has only lost once and that was due to a poor trip. He got up to take the Rebel Stakes in his last start despite having to overcome a horrid trip. I love the son of Smart Strike’s breeding, and he is in excellent hands with Bob Baffert and Garrett Gomez. Look for him in the Santa Anita Derby.
#2 Odysseus- I absolutely love the Tampa Bay Derby victory. He looked like he was dead in the water turning for home, but somehow came on again to win the race. Before that he crushed an allowance field by 15 lengths. I’m not very sure how well he is suited for the distance. He is a sons of Malibu Moon. I expect to see him compete in the Bluegrass Stakes before heading to Churchill Downs.
#3 Awesome Act- He looked great skipping over the track in his Gotham victory. It appears that the son of Awesome Again is getting good at the right time. His Gotham win was his first start of the year. Prior to that he was 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Jeremy Noseda. Look for him in the Wood Memorial.
#4 Eskendereya- Most people will disagree with me having this colt at 4th and that is fine. I want to see him reproduce his freakish effort in the Fountain of Youth before I get on board. If he wins the Wood Memorial like that I’ll hop on the band wagon. Of course I’ll also fear he is a Bellamy Road 2.0 (Bellamy Road crushed the Wood Memorial field before finishing 7th in the Run for the Roses). John Velazquez rides for Todd Pletcher. He will be in the Wood Memorial.
#5 Sidney’s Candy- It’s hard to say how good this colt really is. I love his easy win over Grade 2 company two races back. After that he easily won the Grade 2 San Felipe, but did so after setting fractions that were slow. How will he respond under pressure? We will find out in the Santa Anita Derby. Joe Talamo pilots this son of Candy Ride for John Sadler.
Who are your picks for the Kentucky Derby right now? I’d love to know. Leave a comment below.
Keeneland Graded Stakes Races
March 24, 2010 By 1 Comment
Every racing fan should make a pilgrimage to Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky. I can speak from experience when I say it is truly one of the most beautiful places in the United States. Whether it’s the gorgeous dogwood trees or the “up close and personal” paddock, Keeneland cannot be surpassed. The spring meet begins on April 2 and promises to bring plenty of excitement. Keeneland has been running since 1936 and has some of the best stakes action in the nation. Let’s take a look at the best stakes races for the Keeneland Spring Meet.
Bluegrass Stakes (Gr. I)- Historically speaking, this is one of the most important preps for the Kentucky Derby. The $750k purse guarantees the winner enough earnings to make an attempt at the Run for the Roses. Notable winners since 1970 include Dust Commander, Riva Ridge, Spectacular Bid, Alydar, Chief’s Crown, Holy Bull, Summer Squall, and Skip Away. The most recent horse to compete in the Bluegrass Stakes and then win the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense. He narrowly lost to Dominican in the Bluegrass Stakes.
Ashland Stakes (Gr. I)- There are many important races at Keeneland, but this one ranks near the top. It is a key prep for the Kentucky Oaks. It is raced at 8.5 furlongs on the Polytrack. The purse is quite hefty at $400k. Several highly successful fillies have won this race including Princess Rooney, Go For Wand, and Silverbulletday.
Madison Stakes (Gr. I)- This race has only been conducted since 2002, but has quickly become a Grade I event. It is for fillies and mares four-year-olds and up. The distance is seven furlongs on the Polytrack. The last two winners were Informed Decision and Ventura. Both mares later won the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.
Mile Stakes (Gr. IT)- Sponsored by Maker’s Mark, this race takes place over one mile on the turf for four-year-olds and upwards. The race was first run in 1989. It has produced Breeders Cup Mile winners Opening Verse, Artie Schiller, Miesque’s Approval, and Kip Deville. Perfect Soul owns the speed record. He covered the mile distance in 1:33.54.
Lexington Stakes (Gr. II)- Contested at 8.5 furlongs on the Polytrack, this race takes place two weeks before the Kentucky Derby for which it is the final prep. Notable winners include Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Charismatic, and Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner Risen Star. Many trainers use it as a last ditch effort to get the earnings needed to compete in the Kentucky Derby.
Commonwealth Stakes (Gr. II)- This race is contested at seven furlongs over the Polytrack for three-year-olds and upwards. Notable winners include Black Tie Affair, Distorted Humor, Richter Scale, Orientate, and Sun King.
Jenny Wiley Stakes (Gr. IIT)- The distance for this race is 8.5 furlongs over turf. It is for four-year-old fillies and upwards. The race has produced Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf winners Intercontinental and Forever Together.
Transylvania Stakes (Gr. IIIT)- This race is contested on opening day at 8.5 furlongs on the turf. It is for three-year-olds. It has been contested every year since 1989. The most notable winner was Izvestia who went on to sweep the Canadian Triple Crown.
Other notable stakes races include:
- Shakertown Stakes
- Beumont Stakes
- Appalachian
- Elkhorn
- Bewitch
The aforementioned stakes races are exciting to watch and highly consequential. The Lexington and Bluegrass Stakes send horses to the Kentucky Derby. The Ashland almost always produces at least one entry for the Kentucky Oaks. The Mile Stakes has produced several Breeders Cup Mile winners. Racing at Keeneland is always of the highest quality. Even the allowance races are top notch. Racing will begin on April 2 and run until April 23. We should relish and enjoy every race.
Ice Box pulls shocker in Florida Derby
March 21, 2010 By 2 Comments
I had a good feeling it was going to be bombs away in the Florida Derby. I told those who purchased my selections that. My top pick, Pleasant Prince, narrowly missed at odds of 29-1. He nearly gave me a heart attack, because I thought I was in the clear during the late stages of the race.
It wasn’t to be. Pleasant Prince was edged out by Nick Zito trainee Ice Box. Both finished behind Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth last out. The winner was sent off at odds of 20-1. Pleasant Prince returned $26.40 to place and $11.60, so those that played him across on the board on my advisement did very well. I still wish he had won though!
The pace of the race set up well for both horses who closed from well back. It appeared for a brief moment that the favored Rule would kick for home with ease, but he was all out despite having looked otherwise. He ended up third. The Todd Pletcher trainee put in a good race considering the pace scenario. I wouldn’t hesitate to give him a look in the Kentucky Derby. Lentenor, best known for being the full brother of Barbaro, was fourth. He ran well in his first try on dirt, but probably isn’t Kentucky Derby material.
The under card was interesting. Devil May Care validated her win in the Frizette at 2 by running huge to take the Bonnie Miss. She was quite green, but couldn’t have won any easier than she did. Christine Daae and Amen Hallelujah ran clunkers even though they both caught plenty of action. D’ Funnybone posted an easy win the Swale. The connections say he won’t target the Kentucky Derby, but are considering the Preakness.
What did you think of Saturday’s races? Let me know by leaving a comment below!
My Thoughts on Rachel Alexandra’s Loss
March 16, 2010 By 5 Comments
My heart sank in my chest as I watched Zardana go by Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes. It seemed improbable if not impossible. How could the filly that bested the boys in the Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward fall to a second stringer from California? I can observe two obvious reason. Let’s analyze why the giant that is Rachel Alexandra fell in her 2010 debut.
- She just wasn’t ready. Steve Asmussen and Jess Jackson didn’t give her enough time to prepare. I’m not sure, but I believe she had just 4-5 works before this race. That is not nearly enough work for a filly that had been out of training for several months. You may recall that Asmussen wasn’t totally satisfied with her last breeze. The Eclipse Award winning trainer was quoted saying that it is his job to have her ready and he failed in that job. It’s a mistake I don’t think he will make ever again.
- Calvin Borel didn’t let her run. That wasn’t his fault though. The multiple Kentucky Derby winning jockey was instructed to wait until the latter stages of the race before getting after her. This could have been the difference in winning and losing.
Its not often in horse betting that a horse is bet down to 1-20 odds and runs second. I hope to see Rachel Alexandra come back better than ever. I won’t be surprised when she does and I expect her to do so. Don’t count this filly out after one bad race. The way people have hopped off her bandwagon reminds me of the “Rumble in the Jungle”. For those not familiar with boxing, Muhammad Ali was given 0 chance by pundits to beat undefeated heavyweight champ George Foreman in Zaire. Ali proved them all wrong and won the fight by KO. I’ve posted a cool video about the fight above. Ali wasn’t done; neither is Rachel Alexandra.
On a side note, Eskendereya is headed to Belmont Park for the Wood Memorial after taking the Fountain of Youth. The son of Giant’s Causeway is the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. It will be nice to see how he handles the track. Belmont Stakes betting should be effected depending on how he fares. I think the Belmont Stakes will suit him very well given his pedigree.
Frank “Mirror Man” Mirahmadi funniest race caller EVER!
March 8, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Fans of TVG are very familiar with Frank Mirahmadi. He is an excellent handicapper and commentator for the network. Frank’s first and most important job however is that of a race caller. He does great impressions and commonly breaks them out during the races. Some of his best impressions are of Rodney Dangerfield, and Andy Rooney. If you haven’t heard Frank call a race before then I highly recommend watching the above video. You will be glad you did.
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