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Kentucky Oaks and Derby Selections

April 26, 2010 By 8 Comments

The above video is of Mine That Bird winning the Kentucky Derby in 2009. You probably didn’t bet him to win. Are you prepared to right that wrong this year? I am more than ready and willing to help.

Gradedstakes.com will be providing full card selections for Churchill Downs along with Kentucky Derby and Oaks picks and exotic plays. I have deeply analyzed the field and I’m excited and prepared for what will occur on Saturday. I’m prepared for Friday too. I do my best handicapping on the big days and I will shine brightly on Oaks and Derby days. I encourage you to purchase my selections so that you can play along. Picks for the Oaks and Derby will be available for $5 total, and full card selections for both days are available for $10 each.

Regular visitors to this site know that I had Sidney’s Candy in all three of his wins this years. He paid $6.20 when he won the San Vicente and $9.60 in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Will I back him to take the Roses? You can find out by ordering my selections. John Sadler has him working well and he should certainly be a threat with or without my support.

The 2010 Derby trail was good to me. I had Caracortado when he won the Robert Lewis and paid $11. My highest priced winner came in a less heralded race which was the Whirlaway Stakes. I touted Peppi Knows as my top selection. He won and returned $17.40 for a $2 win bet. I narrowly missed the Florida Derby with 29-1 shot Pleasant Prince who was defeated by a nose. He returned a hefty $26.40 to place!

Those winners are just a few among many. I plan to knock it out of the park this year. You can play along and reap the benefits. I’ll even make a promise. If I don’t have the winner of either the Oaks or Derby, and I don’t hit any Pick 4′s or exotics in Oaks or Derby I will provide complimentary picks for the Preakness or Belmont Stakes. You don’t have much to lose!

Oaks & Derby Package

  • Picks to WIN the KENTUCKY DERBY and KENTUCKY OAKS
  • Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double play
  • Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta plays for both races

Full Card Selections Package

  • Includes everything from the Oaks & Derby Package
  • Picks to win in every race from Churchill Downs on Friday and Saturday
  • Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 plays
  • assorted Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta plays

Use the drop down menu below to choose the package you would like then click “Buy Now”.

Kentucky Derby Picks

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Kentucky Derby Approaching May 1

April 26, 2010 By 3 Comments


The First Saturday in May is rapidly drawing closer. The Kentucky Derby took a hit this weekend when probable favorite Eskendereya was withdrawn from consideration after trainer Todd Pletcher discovered a swollen leg. His defection after winning the Wood Memorial and as the favorite follows I Want Revenge who was  also going to be the favorite after winning the Wood Memorial in 2009. The defection of Eskendereya makes way for the Bob Baffert trained juvenile champion Lookin at Lucky to become the new favorite.

Todd Pletcher’s best hope for ending his 0-24 skid in the Run for the Roses may have been Eskendereya, but he still has plenty of bullets to fire. Among his entrants this year will be Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible, Sam Davis Stakes winner Rule, and Arkansas Derby runner up Super Saver. The filly Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, and Interactif are also potential chances for Todd Pletcher.

I feel sorry for jockey Johnny Velazquez. He lost Florida Derby winner Quality Road last year and now he has lost Eskendereya. It appears that he will get the mount on Devil May Care if Pletcher’s opts for the Kentucky Derby over the Kentucky Oaks. She is a big lanky filly that is blazing fast, but may not be ready for the Kentucky Derby. I’d like to see her in the Oaks.

This Kentucky Derby is wide open just like last year. Many of the top contenders have big question marks. The overall quality of the field seems sub par and could be average at best. I don’t think we have any chance of seeing a Triple Crown winner. The only horse I could see doing it would be Sidney’s Candy. We still have no idea how good he is. His ability is like a well and we still don’t know if he has come close to the bottom. Does that mean he will be my Kentucky Derby pick? Not at all, but if you told me now that one of these horses was going to sweep the TC I think he would be the one. Who do you like?

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Free Selections: Withers Stakes, Derby Trial, San Francisco Mile

April 24, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Selections will be able for free this week. If you have some success or enjoy them I encourage you to check back next week for our Kentucky Derby selections. We will have full card selections for Churchill Downs along with our top pick to win and exotic wagers for the Run for the Roses. Click here for more information!

The $200k Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial

I never like taking the favorite, but Eightyfiveinafifty is just too good for this field. The son of Forest Camp has some quirky tendencies as we saw when he turned his head sideways in the early stages of the Grade 3 Bay Shore Stakes. He ended up winning that race easily in a fast time. This colt is one of my favorite in training and I expect very big things from him in the future. Winning the Derby Trial should be a stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby next week where he will almost undoubtedly set the pace. If he fails to win this race he won’t get a chance to compete for the Roses. He will make a strong single in multiple race exotics at 8/5 on the ML.

Grade 3 Withers Stakes

Admittedly, it will be very hard to take down 1/2 ML favorite D’Funnybone. He enters this race after a victory in the Swale Stakes. He has been almost unstoppable in sprint races. Despite the fact that he looks so good, I’m going to take Todd Pletcher’s Ibboyee at odds of 5/2. He has been steadily improving and will be returning home to New York. He will need a fast pace to chase.  The extra furlong may allow him to get to D’Funnybone which he was unable to do last out in the Swale Stakes where he was second. If D’Funnybone has a bad day then Ibboyee will be the one to capitalize.

Grade 2 San Francisco Mile

I really like Monterey Jazz returning to the weeds in this race. He will get jockey Tyler Baze back in the irons. They teamed up to take the Grade 2 American Handicap last year. Hopefully Baze can rate him on the lead and save something for the stretch. The son of Thunderello is clearly the classiest runner in the field. There is plenty of value at odds of 4-1. If he runs close to as good as he is capable of running he will wipe this field out. On the flip side he could throw in a clunker like he did in the Del Mar Mile and the Oak Tree Mile. I’m willing to take my chances on this old veteran.

Derby Trial: Eightyfiveinafifty (8/5)

Withers: Ibboyee (5/2)

San Francisco Mile: Monterey Jazz (4-1) **BEST BET**

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Triple Crown season arrives at HorseRacingPark.Com

April 19, 2010 By Leave a Comment



The 7th running of the KYD (Kentucky Derby) at Horse Racing Park is set for 5/1. Last years winner, Ghost Walker, has won just a single race since then, but has posted impressive second place finishes in the Belmont Stakes, Santa Anita Handicap, and Charleston Classic. His career earnings stand at $2,421.98. He cost just $8 to breed. If your not playing this virtual horse racing game, HRP, then you should be. Click here for an exclusive offer of five free horses available only for visitors of this website!

Just as Eskendereya towers over the field in the “real life” Kentucky Derby, Five Fives looks like the one at Horse Racing Park. He has won 7 of 9 career starts and was most recently seen running a career best to take the Florida Derby by a length. The stalker’s career earnings stand at $1,578.26 and will more than double if he can take 2 of 3 Triple Crown races. His owner will be awarded a $35,000 bonus if he can become the first horse at HRP to sweep the Triple Crown.

Other contenders include Louisiana Derby winner Bozo Speed, Bluegrass Stakes winner Shanghai Mystery, and the filly Mrs Bombtastic. All three figure to provide Five Fives with healthy competition, but unless the dominating colt doesn’t fire they are probably running for second. Breeders Juvenile winner,  Time Too Dream, has tailed off since last year. He won the Grade 2 Robert Lewis Stakes, but doesn’t appear to have a shot in this years Run for the Roses after finishing 4th in the Rebel Stakes and 5th in the Bay Shore. His career earnings are $1,445.83 and he cost a mere $8 to breed.

Head over to HRP and check out the Triple Crown action! Sign up through this website and get 5 free horses!

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Stride Magazine

April 19, 2010 By Leave a Comment

As a horse racing fan I enjoy the chance to talk about racing at any time. I’m liable to start chatting with anyone at the track about an upcoming race such as the Kentucky Derby or perhaps the Breeders Cup Classic. It’s always nice to hear what others have to say and to share my own input. I try to use this website as a place for discussion and as a way to share my thoughts. I always seek to utilize other forums and that is why I was delighted to have the chance to write for the newly launched Stride Magazine.

Owned and managed by Scott Serio, Stride Magazine launched on March 3, 2010. It is primarily an online magazine, but it can also be ordered in print. New editions are released every month on the 3rd and the 17th. Those involved with the magazine do amazing work. The writing and photography that you will find in Stride is among the best in the entire industry. Stride Magazine is available online at no cost.

The first story I did for Stride was about Oaklawn Park track announcer Terry Wallace. It was a great experience. I conducted a phone interview with Wallace. It was a pleasure to talk to him and hear some of the things he had to share. Wallace is a product of Xavier University which is very close to the University of Cincinnati which I currently attend. He has been calling the races in Hot Springs, AR since Hector was a pup. If you wish to read more about him click here to read my story. It is located on page 22.

My second story for Stride was about the Kentucky Derby Museum located near Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. The Derby Museum has recently reopened after suffering damage from massive flooding last year. Several great racehorses such as Swaps, Broker’s Tip, and Sunny’s Halo are interred on the Derby Museum’s grounds. Barbaro is interred nearby outside of the Derby Museum. Click here to read more. The story is located on page 28.

Keep an eye on Stride Magazine. I firmly believe it is going places and the sky is the limit.

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Kentucky Derby Top 10

April 11, 2010 By 11 Comments

 

Are you counting down the days yet? I know I am. There are 20 days until the Kentucky Derby. All of the major preps except for the Lexington Stakes have been conducted. Some horses will get injured and kept out of the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, but we pretty much know who is who at this point in time. Let’s take a look at my top contenders.

#1 Eskendereya- If this colt were a character from a movie he would be Clubber Lang from Rocky III. He reminds me of this quote from Mickey in that movie: “No, he ain’t just another fighter! This guy is a wrecking machine! And he’s hungry!”. My prediction for the Kentucky Derby? …..Pain! This son of Giant’s Causeway has a gun in a knife fight.

#2 Sidney’s Candy- I’ve said for a while that we don’t know how good this colt really is. Even after winning the Santa Anita Derby I STILL don’t think we have seen the bottom of him. I doubt he is as good as my #1 selection and his running style may compromise his chances. Can Talamo get him to rate? It might not matter if he is “just that good”.

#3 Lookin at Lucky- This colt’s name is quite an oxymoron. He has won 6 of 8 races, and if not for two horrible trips he might be undefeated. I love the way he still rallied to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby despite being pushed into the rail early in the race. He has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs. He is in great hands with Bob Baffert and big money rider Garrett Gomez.

#4 Paddy O’ Prado- I thought he was gone in the stretch of the Bluegrass Stakes until Stately Victor totally freaked and won the race. He is steadily improving and I just have a funny feeling that this colt is for real. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has a great record in the Kentucky Derby.

#5 Rule- The setup of the Florida Derby worked against him. I was nearly 100% sure a closer wouldn’t win that race. I loved his 2010 debut win when he took the Sam Davis Stakes. I’m not sure he is a candidate for top honors, but I can see him running a big race.

#6 Dublin- If he wasn’t in D Wayne Lukas’s barn I probably wouldn’t give him a shot. He had a perfect chance to win Arkansas Derby, but failed to go for the jugular late in the race. Monitor his training in the days leading up to the race.

#7 Awesome Act- He looked poised for a big run in the Wood Memorial turning for home, but when Leparoux unleashed him there wasn’t much there. However, I believe he lost a shoe at the start of the race. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give a good impression of himself on Kentucky Derby day.

#8 Noble’s Promise- His fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby sure didn’t help his chances. Ken McPeek is still on the fence in terms of deciding to race him in the Run for the Roses.

#9 Super Saver- Winner of the Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at two, this colt always give a good account of himself. His running style will probably hurt his chances on the First Saturday in May.

#10 Ice Box- I’m wary of this colt because he won the Florida Derby closing into a tough pace. How will he do when the track doesn’t play in his favor?

So there you have it, my top ten contenders for the Kentucky Derby. This list is almost  certain to change between now and May 1. Kentucky Derby betting will be very interesting, exciting, and fun this year. Who do you like? Leave a comment and join the conversation!

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Sidney’s Candy ($9.60) waltzes way to Santa Anita Derby win; Eskendereya dominates Wood Memorial

April 4, 2010 By 2 Comments


Just one year after losing I Want Revenge on the morning of the Kentucky Derby, jockey Joe Talamo finds himself on another impressive contender; Sidney’s Candy. The son of Candy Ride registered an impressive front running victory in the Santa Anita Derby and essentially “won for fun”. It was his third win in a row and easily the most impressive. We here at Gradedstakes.com had Sidney’s Candy as our top pick in the race. He returned $9.60 to win. We also hit the exacta and trifecta which paid $99.80 and $256.20 respectively.

The favored Lookin at Lucky had a troubled trip and checked sharply after bumping into the rail. He was able to mount a belated rally to finish third. Trainer Bob Baffert was very upset with jockey Garrett Gomez after the race and mockingly suggested that he watch Jerry Bailey’s DVD about riding races. The two have since patched things up. Gomez attempted to fight jockey Victor Espinoza whom he blamed for the incident after the race.

Gomez claims that Espinoza was seeking some sort of revenge, and Baffert seems to believe the same. It appears Espinoza may be upset that he lost the mount on Misremembered who won the Santa Anita Handicap after Victor was replaced. Personally, I have to blame Gomez for this whole mess. If your horse is as good as you think he is then you should’ve been on the outside avoiding trouble. Bob Baffert believes the same. Luckily, Lucky has the earnings to make the Kentucky Derby. This will be a minor set back. The bigger problem may be the strapping colt Eskendereya who won the Wood Memorial with even greater ease than Sidney’s Candy won the Santa Anita Derby.

Eskendereya won the Wood Memorial in hand underneath jockey John Velazquez. He dispatched a quality field that included Gotham Stakes winner Awesome Act, Tampa Bay Derby runner up Schoolyard Dreams, and Jackson Bend. The son of Giant’s Causeway  reminds me a lot of Big Brown, except that I think he could be better when its all said and done. Both toyed with their competition. Big Brown had a gun in a knife fight when he won the Kentucky Derby and it appears the same could hold  true for Eskendereya. If he runs like he did in the Wood Memorial on the First Saturday in May nobody will get near him.

As a handicapper I’ll most likely try to play against him. The Kentucky Derby is without a doubt the hardest race in the world to win. While I believe Eskendereya has similar qualities as Big Brown, he may also end up like Bellamy Road who won the Wood even more impressively than Eskendereya did before finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

What are your thoughts on this weekends races? Who do you like for the Kentucky Derby? Leave a comment below and share your thoughts.

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