September 7, 2010

The Curious Case of Quality Road


The curious case of Quality Road continues Monday at Belmont Park in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile. This race won’t be nearly as easy for him as the Donn Handicap. Grade 1 winner Warrior’s Reward promises to bring PLENTY of competition as does Illinois Derby winner Musket Man. If all three run their best race then Quality Road will blow them off the track, but will that happen? There is no telling.

There isn’t a horse in training who possesses the wealth of talent that Quality Road has. He is brilliant going 6.5 furlongs or 9 furlongs. He has his quirks though. This was displayed in his well known gate incident prior to the start of the Breeders Cup Classic. As you may recall, he was spooked by the crowd and did not want to load into the gate. He was subsequently scratched from the race.

The MET Mile is a valuable gem of a win for a prospective sire and I have to think that is why the connections are targeting the race. They have Quality Road fresh and ready to fire his best shot. His work of :59 and change means that he is fit and ready to go. Quality Road would be an extremely attractive stallion prospect (even more so than he already is) with wins in the Florida Derby, Donn Handicap, and MET Mile.

After giving the Metropolitan Mile a spin, Quality Road could target a number of races. Those that come to mind are the Suburban, Whitney, Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and ultimately a second attempt at starting in the Breeders Cup Classic.

Quality Road is without doubt the best older male in what appears to be a rejuvenated division. His best competition at the top of the pile is Summer Bird who bested him twice last year, and the phenomenal west coaster Rail Trip.

Win or lose it will be fun to watch Quality Road race on Memorial Day. I’ve followed his career extensively and although I will be betting against him I will still enjoy watching such a talented runner.

Dave in Dixie Belmont Stakes bound


It looks like John Sadler’s Dave in Dixie will be racing in the Test of Champions on June 5. Owner Ike Thrash made the decision to send the colt to the Belmont Stakes. He was last seen finishing 5th in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.

John Sadler has had a hot stable of late, taking the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and Grade 3 Derby Trial. Sadler is well known on the west coast and those on the east coast will soon know his name of they do not already. Some of his best runners include Hurricane Ike, Sidney’s Candy, Line of David, and Evita Argentina.

Dave in Dixie has flashed plenty of talent. He won first out and was then thrashed in his next start against graded company. He rallied to finish second behind Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes earlier this year. It’s tough to say how he will fare against top competition in the Belmont Stakes. You  certainly have to think he is on the outside looking in.

Dave in Dixie is a son of Dixie Union and out of a Wavering Monarch mare. Distance shouldn’t be a problem. However, class could be. This colt hasn’t been able to truly answer the bell in stakes company. Jockey Calvin Borel will be an asset as he tries to do so in the Belmont Stakes. Borel is riding hot right now and he fits the colts  running style very well.

It would take a monumental effort for Dave in Dixie to win the Belmont Stakes. He could hit the board though. What do YOU think?

General Quarters targets Foster Handicap and ultimately the Arlington Million

It looks like owner/trainer/one man show Tom McCarthy is sending his star colt General Quarters to contest Churchill Downs second most prestigious race; the Foster Handicap.

General Quarters was last seen scoring an upset victory in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve on the Kentucky Derby under card. It seems the son of Sky Mesa has found his home on the weeds. He will ultimately target the Grade 1 Arlington Million.

I think it was a great decision to put General Quarters on the grass. It made sense to give it a try since his biggest win came over a synthetic surface in the Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes. Horses that run well on synthetic typically run well on turf, and vice versa.

General Quarters could find himself at the forefront of a division lacking in star power. The biggest names on the turf right now are Gio Ponti, Pressious Passion, and Courageous Cat. McCarthy’s colt has the potential to be better than all three.

Regardless of how good or bad he does in the Foster Handicap, this colt should stay on the turf. I think it is very clear to most of us that his best form shows up there. I’d hate to see him put in a strong second place or third place effort and then stay on the dirt. Sure, if he posts a stylish win there would be nothing wrong with keeping him on the dirt. However, I seriously doubt that will happen. With a little luck this colt could find himself in the winners circle for the Breeders Cup Turf later in the year.

What do you think about General Quarters? Where would you race him if he were yours?

Stay Put Belmont Stakes bound

I remember the day that Stay Put broke his maiden. The reason why is because I bet him. He closed nicely to beat a strong field at odds of about 11-1 if my memory is right. I knew that day he might turn out to be a stakes horse.

So far, he has failed twice in stakes company. He finished fifth in both the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He will give stakes company another shot in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes.

Stay Put, a son of Broke Vow out a Dixieland Band mare, will relish the 1.5 miles distance. He closes hard and seems to be getting good at the right time. He has won twice since breaking his maiden with both of those scores coming in allowance company. Trainer Steve Margolis said he came out of his last race very well and he believes the colt is moving forward.

He will be a live long shot in a Belmont Stakes that will lack star power after the defections of Kentcky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky. The likely favorite at this point is Ice Box. With so many closers in the race it might be wise to go with a stalker or speed horse. However, it is tough to know for sure until the entries are released.

Bet the Belmont Stakes at https://www.bwin.com/.

Gradedstakes.com gets Preakness right with Lookin At Lucky!

I’d like to congratulate those who played along with me in the Preakness Stakes. Lookin At Lucky was our top pick to win the race and deemed a strong play. He got a perfect trip from jockey Martin Garcia and won by 3/4 lengths over First Dude. Below is our wagering summary for the race and our thoughts on ‘Lucky.

If you missed out this time I highly encourage you to play along with us for the Belmont Stakes in just under three weeks. Some of the early prospects for that race include Ice Box, Stay Put, Fly Down, and Drosselmeyer. We hope and expect to have the winner correctly selected. Check back to Gradedstakes.com for the best horse racing picks in graded stakes races.

Preakness Stakes

Lookin At Lucky (3-1) Perhaps the seven hole will be a lucky charm for this son of Smart Strike. If not for bad luck he would have no luck at all of late. That will all change in the Preakness. He will get a great trip under new jockey Martin Garcia. The young jockey is one of the best in the business. He does an excellent job adapting to the circumstances of any given race and he will navigate ‘Lucky with much prowess. This colt will run through a brick wall trying to win. He proved that when he won the Rebel Stakes after clipping heels. He tries hard every time and things will go his way in the Preakness. He is a strong play at a fair price.

Lookin At Lucky victorious in Preakness Stakes


Lookin At Lucky lived up to his name for the first time in a long time when he took the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes by 3/4 lengths under steady right hand urging from new jockey Martin Garcia. He dueled for a short while with long shot First Dude before kicking clear. First Dude held second place from a hard charging Jackson Bend. ‘Lucky gave trainer Bob Baffert his fifth Preakness winner. His others were Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Point Given, and War Emblem.

While ‘Lucky was able to redeem himself with a win, things didn’t go so well for Calvin Borel and the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. “My horse broke sharp, right where I wanted,” said Borel.  “I let the other horse go, and I was right behind him. We went 23-and-change and 46-and-change. He just wasn’t able to get there today. I will win a lot of other races with this horse. He’s a good one.”

Todd Pletcher made it clear that his colt would not go to Belmont to try the third leg of the Triple Crown. He also noted that the connections got the race they wanted; the Derby. ““I thought as well as First Dude hung in there that we were in a good spot.” said Pletcher. ” He was able to move himself right outside of (First Dude). It looked like the colt was relaxed. He was traveling well down the backside and you could tell that when he went to the far turn, he came up empty.”

As can be expected, Bob Baffert was extremely enthused over the win. Martin Garcia seemed thankful and happy, but he might not understand the magnitude of the win just yet. Garcia was a line cook just 5 years ago and knew nothing of horse racing until he started riding professionally in 2005.  If he hasn’t hit him yet, it will very soon!

“It’s just as exciting.  I know it’s been a few years.  I mean, this was a different kind of win,” said Baffert. ” This was more of a redemption win.  This horse is such a warrior.  He wants to win.  He tries so hard.  So I wanted to win it for the horse, you know, ’cause he tries so hard every time.  I mean, the Derby, he had that rough trip.  Santa Anita Derby, rough trip.  I didn’t want him to get hit.  But, you know, every time he had those rough trips, he came back.  He’s got a great mind.  He’s a cool horse.  He’s just a really great athlete.  I mean, he’s one of the best horses I’ve ever had.  It’s amazing.  He’s still a baby.  He’s so immature.  He’s not even three years old yet.  His birthday is May 27th.”

It’s unfortunate, but neither the Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, or the Preakness winner, Lookin At Lucky, will forge ahead to the Belmont Stakes. That race is likely to be headlined by Kentucky Derby second place finisher Ice Box and fellow Nick Zito trainee and Dwyer winner Fly Down.

Preakness Picks


I’ve just completed my Preakness selections. I’m very excited for the races on not only Saturday, but Friday too. The Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes has plenty of good wagering opportunities. I’m very confident that 8/5 ML favorite Tidal Pool will go down. She has been raced hard lately and this isn’t an easy field. Two weeks rest will be her undoing.

I like a filly that will be a solid price and should pay double digits to win the race. Who is that filly? You will have to buy my picks to find out! You can do so by clicking the “Buy Now” button below. They are just $5.99 and include picks for 7 races along with Daily Double Pick 3, Pick 4, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta bets. Don’t miss out. The races included in this years Preakness Package are listed below.

  • Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
  • Preakness Stakes
  • Lang Stakes
  • Dixie Stakes
  • William Donald Schaefer Stakes
  • Gallorette Handicap
  • Maryland Sprint Handicap

Below is a list of some of the winners I had on this year’s Derby trail.

  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes ($6.20)
  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes ($9.60)
  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby ($9.60)
  • Caracortado in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis Stakes ($11.00)
  • Pleasant Prince in the Grade 1 Florida Derby ($26.40 to PLACE)

I’m supremely confident that I will pick winners in several of the races I have handicapped on Saturday. I also expect them to pay double digit prices to win.  I love my all stakes Pick 4 play and I expect it to pay in excess of $1,000. The ticket is very affordable to play so the risk is low. Click the “Buy Now” button below to play along with me for $5.99. Doing so will pay dividends on Saturday.


Free Video Selection: Smart Seattle in the Hilltop Stakes

Black-Eyed Susan day is full of great races. One of those races is the $70k Hilltop Stakes. I like Smart Seattle to take the race under Julien Leparoux for Graham Motion. Watch the video to find out why. If you would like picks for all of this weekends stakes action, including the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, and Preakness Stakes, click here!

Preakness Stakes Selections and Picks

Are you counting yet? It’s only 355 days until the Kentucky Derby. Between now and then two nearly as important races will be contested. Those races are the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown better known as the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Gradedstakes.com will be here to help you handicap as always. Below are just a few of the winners we had on this years Derby trail.

  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes ($6.20)
  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes ($9.60)
  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby ($9.60)
  • Caracortado in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis Stakes ($11.00)
  • Pleasant Prince in the Grade 1 Florida Derby ($26.40 to PLACE)

Our expert picks will be available for just $5.99. Those who purchase this years picks for the Preakness will get picks to WIN, Pick 3, Pick 4, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta plays. We will provide complimentary picks for the Belmont Stakes if we don’t pick at least 3 winners, an exotic worth $250 or more for a $1 wager, or the winner of the Preakness. You haven’t got much to lose!

Included in this year’s package are picks for the following races:

  • Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
  • Preakness Stakes
  • Hirsch Jacobs Stakes
  • Dixie Stakes
  • William Donald Schaefer Stakes
  • Gallorette Handicap
  • Maryland Sprint Handicap

Pleasant Prince goes from possible star to fringe contender in the Preakness Stakes


I remember as if it were yesterday. Rule appeared to be taking command at the top of the stretch in the Florida Derby only to fade to third. After he gave up the lead the first horse to go by was Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was also in hot pursuit  and he lunged forward to take the Grade 1 race by a nose. The next race for Ice Box was the Kentucky Derby where he would finish second.

Pleasant Prince, short of earnings, would race two more times before the Run for the Roses of which he was ultimately kept out. He finished off the board in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and third in the Derby Trial. His connections will now try and annex the second jewel of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes.

Owner Ken Ramsey was dead set on making the Kentucky Derby.  He told the Blood-Horse, “The Derby is a special race. I could win three Dubai World Cups and that might mean more internationally, but not to me. I’m getting kind of long in the tooth and I’ve got Derby fever something bad.”. He also said that his research via the internet proved horses could win the Derby Trial and then the Kentucky Derby. The last one to do so was Tim Tam in 1958. The only thing that Mr. Ramsey forgets is that this is a different era and a different type of thoroughbred. They aren’t built for that type of racing anymore. After failing to make the Derby the Preakness is the next best thing.

The Was Ward trainee has raced six times this year. His best finishes were in the Florida Derby and Derby trial, but neither race should warrant serious consideration for the Preakness Stakes. He is clearly a horse who needs rest. The son of Indy King could grow into a nice older horse, but it appears that his future career will be sacrificed in favor of attempting to win a leg of the Triple Crown no matter how slim the chances.

Pleasant Prince had his final work for the Preakness today. He fired off five furlongs in :59 seconds at Keeneland. That is an encouraging move under jockey Julien Leparoux. I find myself wondering why he failed to fire in the Bluegrass, yet the connections still train him over the surface.

Pleasant Prince will board a plane headed to Baltimore, MD on Wednesday. Then on Saturday he will be an also ran once again. It’s a shame. With a little patience he could be one of the best.