May 18, 2012

Saratoga Pick 6 Play ($443,274 carryover)

The Pick 6 is my favorite wager. I rarely play it, but when I do it seems like I usually get close to the prize. I’ve had 5 of 6 many times, but at my young age of 20 I’ve yet to successfully hit the entire sequence. I have been alive in the 6th race 3 times only to fall short. I hope that doesn’t happen tomorrow as I will be making a big play. Let’s breakdown the Pick 6 at Saratoga on September 1, 2010!

Race 5: I’m not going to over think this race. I’m using #1 Arrr Pirates Booty (3-1) and #4 Stroke (2-1). The Linda Rice barn has been nearly unstoppable so I expect the favorite to take top honors here.

Race 6: I’m using #1 Talk To Nick (4-1) and #6 Dance Floor Maniac (4-1). I like the speed that Talk To Nick is likely to flash from the rail. He faded last out, but I think he could go from flag fall to thats all turning back in distance for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. Dance Floor Maniac is super consistent and will get first jump on Talk To Nick. I feel pretty confident I will get through this leg with just these two, but I wouldn’t mind having #2 Devilish Due.

Race 7:  I’m not wild about this race. I could see myself going down here. My horses are #5 Power Dreams (6-1) and #6 Precious Metal (7/2). The latter is a fast working first time starter and the former picked up the pieces in a maiden claimer to be third last out. Stretching out on the turf there is no telling what might happen. The rail horse is favored for Linda Rice, but I don’t like babies that haven’t worked five furlongs yet.

Race 8: This is a tough race, but I feel confident with Avanta (8-1), Pleine Forme (5-1), and Believe In A.P. (8-1). All three hold an excellent hand. Avanta has the benefit of jockey Johnny Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher. I like her turf pedigree and she will be tough while throwing the blinkers on after a stalking victory against maiden claiming company in which Pletcher swiped her away from Bill Mott. Pleine Forme picks up Ramon Dominguez who seemingly could have had the mount on Arch Support who is lower odds. Pleine Forme is trained by turf expert Graham motion. She scored a first out victory over the Poly Track at Presque Isle. Believe In A.P. put in a good effort last out for Jay Em Ess and Dick Dutrow finishing a close third despite closing into slow fractions. Julien Leparoux will ride and he is always an asset on the turf.

Race 9:  I’m going out on a limb by singling Sumfun (6-1). From five starts at the distance he has won three times and finished second and third. He won an allowance at Lone Star earlier this year before finishing second to the grizzled veteran Atticus Kristy at Churchill Downs. The son of Menifee was claimed last out by Gary Diprima who  saddles 19% winners first after the claim. He’s in with a big shot, but I wouldn’t mind having Matt’s A Giant (6-1) and Sly (4-1).

Race 10: He isn’t what he used to be, but I’m hoping that The Roundhouse (4-1) can get me home in the final leg of the Pick 6.  He is making a slight class drop after finishing fourth beaten three lengths in his last start. I’m hoping he can find some of the run that allowed him to win an optional claiming even at Aqueduct earlier this year. I’m also using French Transition (12-1). The gelding son was a good second on the turf at this level two starts back.

The total cost of my ticket is $96. Win or lose, I’ll be on the edge of my seat the whole way cheering my horses on. Who do YOU like?

Free Video Pick: Blessed Moon (Race 2 @ SAR on 9/1/10)

Enjoy the video! Feel free to share your thoughts by leaving a comment below.

Rachel Alexandra gunned down by Persistently in the Personal Ensign

I remember handicapping a race earlier in the Saratoga meet in which Persistently was the morning line favorite. I was unimpressed with her form, but the Phipps filly was under the care of one of the best trainers in the nation, Shug McGaughey. Perhaps his tutelage is the reason she won that race and then returned to win the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes over champion filly Rachel Alexandra on Sunday.

Persistently is out of the Phipps mare Just Reward who won once from three starts and finished second twice while earning $43,000. Just Reward is a daughter of Grade 1 winner Deputy Minister. Her sire, Smoke Glacken, was a Grade 1 winner who won 10 of 14 starts and finished off the board just once.

She certainly lived up her to prestigious breeding by winning this race. The Alan Garcia piloted filly benefited greatly from Life At Ten dueling Rachel Alexandra through swift fractions. Trainer Shug McGaughey also campaigned the undefeated namesake of the race.

It appeared as if Rachel Alexandra hit a wall in the last furlong. It seems pretty clear she doesn’t want to go the classic distance. I’m a huge of the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, but I have to wonder if serious changes are coming. If I owned or trained her I’d be aiming for the Ladies Classic rather than the Breeders Cup Classic. As much as I didn’t want to believe it until today, she probably isn’t capable of taking down the boys like she did three times last year.

Regardless of what the future holds for her, the past has cemented Rachel Alexandra as a legend. Nothing can change that.

Travers Weekend Picks & Plays

*****CLICK HERE TO GET OUR 2011 TRAVERS AND PACIFIC CLASSIC PICKS*****

The Midsummer Derby aka the Travers Stakes is finally here, along with tons of other important races. Among the big races that will be contested this weekend are the Pacific Classic, Pat O’Brien Handicap, Victory Ride Stakes, King’s Bishop Stakes, Personal Ensign Stakes, Ballerina Stakes, Ballston Spa Handicap, and many more. My free picks which were released here on Wednesday fared very well. From five races I had three winners ($4.50, $5.40, $12.20), and a 9-1 shot who ran second and paid $6.80 to place. Not bad, right?

I’ve done very well on the  big days at Saratoga. Just two weeks ago I had Blame as my best bet of the weekend in the Whitney Handicap. He keyed a $2,564 Pick 4 while returning $8.80 win. He nailed the heavily favored Quality Road on the wire. I’ve had countless winners in the everyday races at the Spa with the biggest price being Settle For Medal ($45.20). The maiden runner made perfect sense to me as the only one in the race with experience. He broke poorly in his first start before rallying to finish well behind a well regarded winner. The bettors let him off at a huge price in that race and he made them pay for it. My subscribers and I had him though!

I have big hopes for this weekend of racing. I do my best work on these big days and I have little doubt that I will have a huge day handicapping. I highly encourage you to play along. Below you will find several packages of picks. Choose the one that suits you best and find it on the drop down menu near the “Buy Now” button.

Travers Stakes & Pacific Classic Package ($5.99)

  • Unlike my Triple Crown packages you will get twice the value with this one as I’m throwing in the Pacific Classic which is later on the same day at Del Mar.
  • This package includes my top selection to WIN each of those two races.
  • Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta plays
  • Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4 plays

Stakes Selections ($10.99)

  • This package includes everything from the “Travers & Pacific Classic Package” plus:
  • Selections for the Pat O’Brien Handicap, Ballerina Stakes, Molly Pitcher Stakes, Personal Ensign Stakes, Victory Ride Stakes, Kings Bishop Stakes, and Del Mar Handicap.

Full Card Saratoga Selections ($15.99)

  • Purchasers of this package get everything listed in the “Travers & Pacific Classic Package” plus more:
  • Top Selections to win every race at Saratoga.
  • Assorted Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta plays
  • Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 plays

Saratoga Selections+More( ($55.99)

  • Buyers of this package will receive everything from the “Full Card Saratoga Selections” plus:
  • Selections for every day of racing left at Saratoga ($90 value).
  • Selections for the Pat O’Brien Handicap, Ballerina Stakes, Molly Pitcher Stakes, Personal Ensign Stakes, Victory Ride Stakes, Kings Bishop Stakes, Molly Pitcher, and Del Mar Handicap.
*****CLICK HERE TO GET OUR 2011 TRAVERS AND PACIFIC CLASSIC PICKS*****

Free Saratoga Picks for 8/25/10

****CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR 2011 SARATOGA PICKS****

Today is my 20th birthday! In order to celebrate I decided to release todays Saratoga card for free. I feel the strongest about races 6,8, and 9. I’ll be playing all of these races myself and I wish you the best of luck if you decide to bet them too.

Don’t forget that this weekend is two huge days of racing which includes the Pacific Classic, Travers Stakes, Kings Bishop, Personal Ensign, and many more events. I’ll be releasing selections for all of these races. Check back here late Wednesday night or Thursday morning for more information!

Race 1

Remark (9-5) This filly is bred to go 9 furlongs. I’m not wild about the fact that she hasn’t raced in two months, but the connections are top notch and she has the tactical speed to be in the perfect spot.

Race 2

Riona (10-1) Bluegrass Cat produces a very strong 18% first time winners. I like the 1:02 Bg move on August 2. This is too good of a price to pass up on.

Race 6

Silent Joy (8-1) This is my favorite play of the day. I absolutely LOVE Kitten’s Joy progeny on the turf. She is working very well and I love that 1:00 2/5 five furlong move on August 13. The mare has produced two turf winners from four starters. She is more than good enough to win this race at a fat price.

PICK 4: 1,7,8/2,3,6,7,8,9,10/2/1,4

Race 7

Skipadate (12-1) You could make a case for nearly every horse in this race so I decided to go with a price runner. The Dale Romans trained son of Skip Away has won twice this year. He has a big closing kick and I expect the pace to be a hot one. Jockey JJ Castellano is riding as good as he ever has this meet and will make sure this colt has a chance to win.

Race 8

Stormy’s Majesty (5-2) He was in too deep last out when the connections opted to go for the Jim Dandy. This statebred spot is perfect for him. Prior to losing the Jim Dandy, he was a winner of his first three starts. I’m still skeptical of the favored Ibboyee and wonder if he wants to go 9 furlongs.

Race 9

Excited (5-1) Todd Pletcher debuts 18% first time winners. This filly has excellent turf pedigree as a daughter of Giant’s Causeway out of a Thunder Gulch mare. I love her work pattern and expect her to be in the mix with Johnny Velazquez in the irons.

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Free Weekend Selections

Alabama Stakes

Blind Luck (8-5) This filly just seems to know where the wire is. She has won three races by a nose and is clearly the one to beat here despite being second choice on the morning line. Look for her to come flying late under jockey Joel Rosario who will be piloting her for the second time.

Arlington Million

General Quarters (8-1) Trainer Tom McCarthy made clear early in the year that this race was the goal for his colt. He has done well on the turf. He won the Woodford Reserve earlier this year against some nice horses, and if he runs his best race he can down the favored Gio Ponti.

Del Mar Oaks

Crisp (6-1) What’s not to like about this filly? She is a Grade 1 winner this year and will have the services of red hot jockey Rafael Bejarano. The daughter of El Corredor will be going 9 furlongs for the first time in career. She has proved she can beat the favored Evening Jewel, and she ran a bang up race after clipping heels last out. I give her a huge shot and could see her going off at a price larger than 6-1.

Secretariat Stakes

Wigmore Hall (5-1) Like it or not, the Europeans have better turf horses than we do and this gelding will prove that. He beat 18 older horses two races ago despite a horrendous trip. The Michael Bell trainee has won at the distance twice from four starts. Paddy O’ Prado is an amazing animal, but I think this gelding will give him everything he wants and perhaps more. That’s not to say Paddy can’t or wont win, but I like my chances on this one at a good price.

Beverley D Stakes

Hot Cha Cha (6-1) Her price won’t be as ripe with the defection of Rainbow View, but she still warrants a big look. The Grade 1 winning filly ran strong last out to be third behind Tuscan Evening. She is clearly the best filly in the race and if she runs her race she will win. I love the bullet 1:00 B work entering this race. She needs a moderate to fast pace and as long as the pace setters don’t go slow I think she wins this event.

Lake Placid Stakes

It’s Tea Time (10-1) I’ve loved this filly ever since she ran second in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. It’s hard to imagine her being 10-1 despite the fact that won an allowance last out. She has all the talent in the world and if she can get a pace to chase she will be tough to hold off in the lane.

Who do you like? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below!

Don’t mind the dust, I’m updating the website!

It’s been almost two years since Gradedstakes.com had a new design so I decided it was time to do some updating. This design is called Streamline and was made by StudioPress. They also did our last design. The site is now much easier to navigate and 10x more user friendly. I haven’t worked everything out yet, so please don’t mind the dust in the meantime. If you find anything wrong you would like to inform me about please contact me via twitter @gradedstakes or by leaving a comment below.

Thanks for visiting and please share your thoughts about the latest happenings in thoroughbred racing!

Gradedstakes.com picks 5 winners in a row at Saratoga!


Sunday was a huge day for my subscribers and I. I picked 5 winners in a row at Saratoga. The highest paying of the five was $17.40, and the lowest was $5.10. If you had bet $2 to win on the first horse and parlayed it for the next five races it would have returned a whopping $883! The five winners were also the first five legs of the Pick 6 which paid a very nice $13,393!

2 Aprilmayjune Velazquez J R 119 17.40 6.10 4.00
3 It’s Tea Time Leparoux J R 116 5.50 3.60 2.80
2 Get Stormy Castellano J J 117 5.10 3.10 2.80
1 Winslow Homer Albarado R J 120 4.70 3.40    2.20
1 Malibu Prayer Velazquez J R 116 6.70 2.80 2.50

I’m handicapping the races everyday at Saratoga. Don’t miss out this week! You can buy selections by using the form below. The rest of the meet is available for $69, and single day cards are $10. Horse racing results will be posted here afterwards on certain occasions.

Saratoga/Del Mar Picks