Haskell Invitational, Monmouth Park/Sunday @ 5:43 PM EST
The Haskell Invitational is one of two races leading up to the Travers Stakes later this month. The main difference between this race and it’s counterpart (Jim Dandy Stakes), is that this race is a Grade 1. Not only that, but it boasts a purse of $1 million. For these two reasons winning the Haskell is every bit as important as taking the Travers later on this summer. Eight out of the last ten Haskell winners have gone on to win the Eclipse Award for top three-year-old male. With the picture atop the division increasingly foggy this race takes on even more meaning.
Shackleford (Forestry x Oatsee by Unbridled) should play the role of favorite. The speedy colt led the field of 20 turning for home in the Kentucky Derby before fading to fourth. His signature win came next out in the Preakness where he scored from just off the pace. The battle hardened racehorse faded in the Belmont Stakes last out as the distance proved too much for him. He has three works since then including two bullets and it appears all systems are go. I’m going to look another direction as I believe the colt is over hyped and when you get down to it just isn’t that good.
Kelly Breen brings Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice (Roman Ruler x Champagne Glow by Saratoga Six) and Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire (Jump Start x Cabo de Noche by Cape Town). Ruler On Ice benefited from an off track at Belmont and in my eyes he still has to prove he belongs. His stable mate on the other hand is a serious contender. He looked great winning the Pegasus Stakes last out, but he is a bit light in the speed figures department.
My pick for this race is Coil (Point Given x Eversmile by Theatrical). Trainer Bob Baffert is deadly when shipping and 41% winners when removing blinkers which he will do for his charge in the Haskell. I’m hoping this will help him relax and sit just behind what appears to be plenty of early speed in this race. Coil has limitless potential and is still lightly raced having made just five starts. He’s working tremendously and the Haskell could be his coming out party. Martin Garcia is the pilot.
Another interesting horse that I almost made my pick is Astrology (AP Indy x Quiet Eclipse by Quiet American). I love his running style and I believe we haven’t seen his best yet. Steve Asmussen trains and Julien Leparoux will ride.
Joe Vann (Silver Deputy x Polish Flower by Danzig) and J J’s Lucky Train (Silver Wagon x Delta Sensation by Thunder Gulch) could be pace factors. I really encourage throwing Joe Vann in considering he races for Todd Pletcher and will be a juicy price at 15-1.
We will be betting Coil at Twin Spires where new accounts get a $100 sign up bonus. Check them out!
If I told you. You wouldn’t believe me. Remember a man called Peter Hurkos. Will he is not the only one of his kind. I see Shackleford leading and never looking back.
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Ryan Reply:
July 28th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
Certainly wouldn’t shock me!
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I haven’t watched any of Coil’s races, yet, so I can’t comment on his readieness to win the Haskell, but Shackleford is going to take some beating, in my opinion. My first introduction to Shackleford was when he walked out onto the track for the Derby, where I thought he made a tremendous physical impression. He took my breath away, in fact. I had only handicapped the Derby one day in-advance, and had done only a fairly small video sample of about 2/3rds of the field, from which I made a top five. That top five was led by Animal Kingdom, whom I felt made the best impression to my eye in his turf prep (that top five was listed on youtube on a betting channel prior to the race, and it should still be there). Animal Kingdom made an excellent physical impression, himself, during the Derby’s post parade, but I thought at-the-time that Shackleford had looked best and I decided to add him to all of my plays, particularly underneath.
While Shackleford didn’t run poorly in the Derby, at all, he didn’t help me either with his 4th-place finish and I held it against him in the Preakness, in spite of another great impression during the post-parade. I recently watched the preakness again, for only the 2nd-time; Shackleford handled the hot pace conditions extremely well. And while I thought his ability to hold off Animal Kingdom was rather extraordinary, it was the latter whose run stood out to me. He was unlucky to lose, but on a track like the Preakness with a field spilling-over, his running style made him an underlay, while Shackleford was overlaid for the same reasons. Speed horses like Shackleford, who can rate, make their own luck, as the racing maxim goes. Yet, I didn’t bet Shackleford in the Preakness because I was still smarting from his 4th-place finish in the Derby when I thought he should have hung on longer given the light pace. Basically, I failed to analyze the situation carefully enough and I had let emotion get in the way. With a fresh look at the Preakness, my respect for both the Derby and Preakness winner has grown.
Note: Shackleford made another great physical impression when arriving at monmouth thursday morning following a van ride. If he’s 5-2 or above I consider him to be square value, although I can’t commit until I see Coil. I did, also, watch the pegasus, and Pants On Fire should run a sharp race, also. He looked great.
Note 2: The Friday stake at Saratoga includes a sone of AP Indy and Sightseek, who has only recently come into himself. The only thing I didn’t like (against a long list of likes, including a flawless lead change) was that he appeared to be carrying extra weight on his body, baby fat, if you will. I don’t, personally, like to see that in a young colt whose facing winners and stake company for the first time. Hopefully his excellent maiden win covering a route of ground (only one-turn, however) and his following 3 practice spins (albeit pedestrian in-nature) will have him leaner and meaner for tomorrow’s stake. He’s my pick. I am choosing Will’s Wildcat as my possible upsetter and exacta partner.
I was also very visually impressed with the m/l favorite’s most recent win, but he’s never been a route of ground, and like my pick, he’s lightly-raced, and short on racing experience. That’s another reason why I give WW a chance to pull an upset. Two of the also-rans from his most recent score, two-back, came back to beat allowance company on a minor circuit, one at lowish odds, the other a slight upset (6-1). I forgive WW’s last race as his previous was run under extremely hot temperatures and he figured to bounce since he had previously bounced off another big top – he’s on a good-race/bad-race cycle, and tomorrow is the “good” one (hopefully).
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