Learn more about our 2012 Breeders’ Cup Picks.
When making picks for the 2012 Breeders’ Cup it is important to find horses to play against. Almost more so than knowing who will win is knowing when short price horses are likely to throw in a clunker. Lucky for you I’ve tabbed ten horses that should take significant money that you can bet against in the Breeders’ Cup.
Juvenile Turf
Balance The Books: Not nearly as good as his last win makes him look. If not for an erratic stretch run he probably would not have won. Europeans appear much better. Have faith in the runners from across the pond to see you through this race.
Juvenile Fillies
Executiveprivilege: Undefeated, but hasn’t beaten much. Very light in the speed figure department. This will easily be the best group she has faced and she is going to get hammered at the windows. Not saying she wont win, but I want to play against at short price.More than one other fillies appears more attractive.
Ladies Classic
Awesome Feather: Has faced just 5 and 6 horses this year. Other than her Juvenile Fillies win, this will be her first time facing truly top competition. Once again, I’m not saying she cant win. What I’m saying is that her price will be much lower than her actual chances.
My Miss Aurelia: Having an abbreviated two race year did no good for this filly and it will really show here. When push comes to shove against horses of this caliber I’m banking on her to come up empty.
Mile
Animal Kingdom: The 2011 Derby winner has raced just thrice since taking the Roses. One of those races was an average allowance score; in February. He’s not going to be sharp enough and even if he is I do not believe he is on the same level as the top couple of horses in here.
Little Mike: I was pulling my hair out when they let this guy steal the Arlington Million. That wont happen in the Breeders Cup. Without an easy lead this gelding isn’t going to get brave. Look for him to finish near the back of the pack.
Turf
St Nicholas Abbey: This guy was my top pick when he won last year. I’m jumping ship this time around. He hasn’t done quite so hot this year and exits an Arc de Triomphe effort where he barely lifted a hoof. I’m not so sure he can run his best race on a firm course. Add the presence of monsters like Point of Entry lurking in this race and he looks like a good underlay to play against.
Classic
Dullahan: This horse isn’t a dirt or a turf horse; he’s a synthetic horse. You won’t see his best race until he gets back on a synthetic surface. I’m hoping he ends up in the Classic (he probably will) so he can suck up a bunch of money. He will not pick up his hooves on the dirt as evidenced by his Haskell Invitational flop. It would be a huge shock to me if he won the Classic.
Ron The Greek: This horse won the Santa Anita Handicap earlier this year while Game On Dude was off playing in Dubai. The second place finisher in that race was the glorified allowance horse Setsuko. Throw the fact that he was sixth beaten 11 3/4 lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he is a very unattractive proposition. Box him with Dullahan to finish last and next to last.
To Honor And Serve: I hate to harp on the Bill Mott horses because I really like the guy. However, this is business. To Honor And Serve cant pass horses, let alone really good ones. Look for him to be prominent early before folding like a cheap tent.
Learn more about our 2012 Breeders’ Cup Picks.