The $300k Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes from Fair Grounds (Saturday|Race 11) has attracted a stellar group of 11 colts and geldings with impressive allowance winner El Padrino (Pulpit x Enchanted Rock by Giant’s Causeway) as the likely favorite.

El Padrino, or “The Godfather”, was third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes to end his freshman campaign. In that race he was defeated 3/4 of a length by O’Prado Again and Souper Speedy in a performance that I regard as lackluster. The field just wasn’t much at all.

His last out effort where he easily cruised in a Gulfstream allowance by 2 lengths over the somewhat mediocre, but possibly improving Take Charge Indy turned a lot of heads. That victory, like his maiden score, was over an off track. Can he put it all together on a fast track? He certainly could, but he figures to be a huge underlay for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey JJ Castellano.

Sons of Scat Daddy are usually best suited for grass, but Shared Property (Scat Daddy x Yoursmineours by Belong To Me) is bucking that trend. He was last seen rallying from seventh to finish a close third in the Lecomte. Tom Amoss appears to have him ready for a big effort here. I wish he hadn’t drawn outside, but he should be very tough to handle even after factoring that in. Leandro Goncalves will pilot the gelding.

I’m looking to Zayat Stables Z Dager (Mizzen Mast x Fees Waived by Wavering Monarch) as my top selection. He is a feisty colt with a big heart that loves to fight for a win. His displayed his talent for the first time two back when breaking his maiden in his second attempt at doing so.

After that he sat behind the pace and fired a big shot to be second in the Grade 3 Lecomte. I love how patiently he rated and the way he finished up after getting room to run. I’m looking for a peak effort from him this time. Trainer Steve Asmussen has done an excellent training job. Shane Shellers will ride.

Two horses to avoid in this race are Optimizer (English Channel x Indy Pick by AP Indy) and Mr. Bowling (Istan x Goldilock’s Bear by Irish Tower). The latter looks better suited for races at a mile or under and I’m surprised he was able to win the Lecomte. The little bit of extra distance will almost certainly due him in here. The former just isn’t able to compete with top dirt horses right now. D Wayne Lukas needs to return him to the sod where he was second in the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes last year.

It’s best to pass on the favorite in this race. He figures to be somewhat prohibitive and there are still a few questions he has to answer. The play is the improving Zayat colt, Z Dager. Include Shared Property as well on multi race exotic tickets. If you plan to play this race, give TVG a shot. You can do so by clicking the banner above. They are currently offering a $100 sign up bonus!