Blame thoroughbred breeders, not owners, for loss of star power

Now, clearly, one answer to this question deals with the soundness of the modern Thoroughbred. Some will argue that today’s breed is inherently weaker than their not so distant ancestors, and this weakness is causing horses to break down at alarming rates. Others will point to steroids, Lasix, and other drugs and count those as the culprits behind the American Thoroughbred having a career whose lengths rival that of Chumbawumba (they had that one hit, Tubthumping, a song about a whiskey drink and a vodka drink, you remember those guys). I am not a vet, so it is hard for me to comment on why exactly, with unbelievable gains in technology and medicine over the last quarter century, we have found a way to weaken the breed and the sport so tremendously.

What I can comment on, making myself appear only slightly foolish I hope, is economics and how supply and demand works. Don’t worry, this isn’t anything beyond what you would talk about on the first day of an Economics class for high schoolers, because, let’s face it, I probably couldn’t articulate too many thoughts beyond that level…

So, how does supply and demand come in to play with horses retiring earlier than they did in years past? Well, the simple point I plan on making is that the reason so many horses are retired early is because horses are now basically being incentivized to leave the track as early as possible! It seems like insanity, but what real incentives are there for horses to keep racing in the modern racing world? So who is to blame for these horses being rushed to the breeding shed?

Most people quickly condemn horse owners every time a horse is retired after their three-year-old season. Creative Cause ($15,000 stud fee) was retired this week, so was the once raced Maclean’s Music ($6,500). This comes on the heels of Gemologist (stud fee not yet announced) and Algorithms (no announced fee) being retired recently, as well as I’ll Have Another, Bodemeister, Paynter, Hansen, and Union Rags retiring in the past few months.

For those keeping score at home that means the best 3YO left in training will be decided in a NW2X at Delaware next Thursday. Ok, it’s probably not that bad, but outside of Alpha (who fell flat at Parx) and Dullahan (who only runs good in synthetic Grade I’s) there simply isn’t a lot of quality out there. The bad thing is that this isn’t an anomaly, this has simply become par for the course. And, the culprit behind this is the entire breeding industry that decides to consistently reward these horses by breeding great mares to these unproven commodities when they go to stud.

I understand that the issue of early retirement can’t be fully discussed in a quick article, but I think people need to stop placing all the blame on the owner’s, and start looking to the breeding industry at large. What breeders are doing is bad for the game and bad for the breed in general. The old axiom “breed the best to the best and hope for the best” made sense at one time. In the 60’s and 70’s (and before) it was clear who the best horses were. You know why? Because they raced against each other repeatedly….it’s a novel concept, huh?

But, the modern breeding industry works completely backwards. People rush to breed to unproven Freshman stallions who are not only unproven as sires, in most cases they were also unproven on the track. Why do they do this? They do it hoping that they’ll stumble into breeding to the next big thing. Because that’s what we all want right? The next big thing is ALWAYS going to be better than what we have and what we know, isn’t it?

It’s this logic that has completely screwed up the entire breeding industry. We shouldn’t blame the horses’ owners for taking a big pay day to retire, that’s only logical. Most of these owners and trainers know that they don’t have superstars on their hands. Look at a horse like Union Rags that retired despite being perfectly capable of returning for a four-year-old campaign. Union Rags was a good horse, but he was very average on speed figures and didn’t really seem to improve from two to three. If they raced him at four and he was still running Beyer’s in the mid 90’s he would have been up the track in graded stakes, look at what horses like Dialed In and Ice Box accomplished after being hot Derby prospects at one time.

Owners have this ridiculous safety net where they can retire a good to very good horse, yet still command elite horse stud fees. In an insane twist of logic the breeding world has put a great deal of importance on Derby preps and the Derby itself, despite the fact that the Derby has proven time and time again that it is a TERRIBLE indicator of breeding success. Yet, the Graded Stakes committee continues to overgrade every ho-hum Derby prep across the nation so that any three-year-old colt in America with a pulse and the ability to run 9 furlongs earns a graded stakes placing. Some of these runners stumble their way into Grade I wins over fields that are glorified NW2X allowances. And then, in August, with the prospects of having to face older rivals in a month or two on the horizon a litany of these “star three-year-olds” (I use the term star VERY lightly) suddenly have hoof bruises, and other slight injuries that require them to be rushed to the breeding shed on the first Sallee Van available.

Thoroughbred breeders need to make the decision that breeding to these horses is not good for the game. Don’t incentivize owners for rushing off the track and putting an unproven product in the market place. Reward capable stallions that produce great runners consistently. Or reward horses that have actually faced tough fields in open races with success…if you can find one….maybe Shackelford this year? At least he ran at four and proved he could win going a variety of distances, he stayed sound, and he had a lot of toughness. Forestry (his sire) has disappointed over the last few years, but he was once considered to be among the top stallions in Kentucky.

To me, it’s unfair to condemn owners for rushing horses to stud. They are only doing what the market dictates that they do. Leaving horses in training, and forcing them to prove that they are stars, is a risky proposition. A lot of horses fail to ever deliver on that promise and are banished to $5,000 stud fees in Florida, and that means a much smaller pay day for Mr. and or Mrs. Owner. Instead, retiring with that pretty little 5 wins in 8 starts, having never faced older horses and going to a Kentucky farm with a $15-$20,000 stud fee seems like a pretty good move. It’s simple economics, and until Thoroughbred breeders decide they want to do what is best for the breed, we will be left with Thoroughbred owners smart enough to take the money and run….to the breeding shed…not run on the track….that would be silly.