Ballston Spa Handicap
August 19, 2008
Ballston Spa Handicap (Grade 2)
#1 Wait A While- Todd Pletcher and Garrett Gomez won this race with this magnificent mare last year. She has two wins from two starts at the distance. Her win in last years Ballston Handicap began a streak of four consecutive 100+ ESF’s. Look for her to stalk the early pace and pounce at the ¾ pole as the 8/5 morning line favorite.
#2 Valbenny- Grade 2 winning filly hasn’t returned to her top form in her two starts in 2008. The distance shouldn’t be a problem for her. I don’t think she will contend for the win, but she may be able to run third, and perhaps second.
#3 Sharp Susan- The lethal combination of Kent Desormeaux and Bill Mott will hook up for this filly. Sharp Susan is owned by IEAH. She was moving away from Valbenny when winning last out after overcoming a poor trip. She seems to be on the improve. While the win is not out of the question, I think she is more likely to run second.
#4 Rutherienne- The French connections of Christophe Clement and Julien Leparoux will bring this filly to the track. She is optimal at this distance of 8.5 furlongs, but has been running at the 9 furlong distance of late. I don’t think she has enough early speed to stay with the eventual winner, but she should be able to pick up third.
#5 Carriage Trial- Edgar Prado and Claude McGaughey saddle this filly for an attempt at her first Grade 2 victory. She hit the board in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff last year, so I don’t know why they haven’t continued to sprint her. She is going to have to stay close early to have a shot at contention in this one.
1st- Wait A While (8/5)
2nd- Sharp Susan (3-1)
3rd- Rutherienne (2-1)
Plays:
$25 WIN on Wait A WHILE
Sunday Selections
July 26, 2008
Street Boss is poised for a chance at the Breeders Cup Sprint!
I’d say my selections were pretty damn good Saturday. Commentator got home for me, and I gave out a $1 trifecta in that race worth $312. I also had the winner in the Vanderbilt, and I gave out the trifecta which was worth $67.50. I hope you played it, because unfortunately I did not. Lets take a look at the races for Sunday and see if we can keep this momentum going.
Jim Dandy (Grade 2)
I don’t like morning line favorite Pyro in this spot. I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but he has NEVER won past a 1 1/16. I will look to Wood Memorial winner, Tale of Ekati to get the job done. He should lay close to the speed and make a move late at odds of 10-1. I also like Mint Lane to hold on for a piece.
1st- Tale of Ekati (10-1)
2nd- Mint Lane (5-2)
3rd- Macho Again (10-1)
WIN on TALE OF EKATI
$1 Trifecta (3,5/3,5,7/ALL)
$1 Superfecta (3,5/3,5/1,4,7,8/1,4,7,8)
Bing Crosby (Grade 1)
Its hard to go against morning line favorite Street Boss in this race. He has been bulletproof lately, and I believe he will be a top contender for the Breeders Cup Sprint. “The Boss” will roll late and flatten this field. In Summation should also be moving late. He is clearly the second best horse in the race on paper. Any number of horses could pick up third. Given the odds, I wouldn’t stick too much money in your exotic wagers. I encourage you to bet Street Boss to win if you can get his morning line odds of 9/5.
1st- Street Boss (9/5)
2nd- In Summation (7/2)
3rd- Jungle Prince (15-1)
WIN on STREET BOSS
$1 Trifecta (1/4/2,3,5,7,9)
Saturday Selections
July 25, 2008
Commentators reigns victorious in the 2005 edition of the Whitney Handicap.
Diana (Grade 1)
Bayou’s Lassie looks like she could be lone speed at 12-1. I expect her to hold on for a piece, but I don’t know if she can beat this bunch. I believe Bit of Whimsy is sitting on a big race at 12-1. She is a daughter of Distorted Humor, and has been coming up short going a mile. I expect her to return to form at her preferred distance of 1 1/8. Dynaforce nearly beat Maralaukana in her first US start at the end of June. Hailing from France, that was her first race since August. She should be in the fray early on, and I expect her to grab a piece. Wait a While and Rutherienne also figure to play a role in the outcome of this ultra tough Grade 1.
1st- Bit of Whimsy (12-1)
2nd- Dynaforce (4-1)
3rd- Bayou’s Lassie (12-1)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta: (1,2,3/1,2,3,4,10/1,2,3,4,10)
Whitney (Grade 1)
I took a stand against Commentator last time out and it paid off, but I am going to take him this time. Though I don’t recall the year, Commentator has already won this race. I’m hoping he can go from flag fall to thats all. The Dutrow trained Rising Moon should be mounting a bid from off the pace. I expect him to get a piece. I also like AP Arrow who has been tabbed at 10-1 after losing as the favorite in the Suburban.
1st- Commentator (3-1) *PLAY OF THE DAY*
2nd- Rising Moon (10-1)
3rd- AP Arrow (10-1)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (1/2,7-10/2,7-10)
Vanderbilt Handicap (Grade 2)
This really sets up for the former Breeders Cup Sprint winner Thor’s Echo. I believe he could get it done, but I am leaning in another direction. I like Abraaj, based off his third place finish to Benny The Bull. I’m looking for the speed to fade and him to pick up the pieces. I can see First Defence getting a piece if Castellano chooses to rate him.
1st- Abraaj (3-1)
2nd- Thor’s Echo (6-1)
3rd- First Defence (4-1)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (1,5/1,2,5,6/ALL)
Saratoga Selections (Races 1-5)
July 24, 2008
Mushka makes her long awaited return to the track Friday at Saratoga.
Race 1- By Proxy has performed well in his two career starts. The cutback to 6 furlongs should be to his liking. I expect him to improve in his third career start. Look for this son of Tiznow to take the cake at 7/2. I’ll throw At Attention and Charging Hero in my exotics.
$1 Trifecta (2/1,7/1,3,5,7)
$2 Daily Double (2/1,6)
$2 Pick 3 2/1,6/1,3)
Race 2- I really love these 2-year-old maiden races! Todd Pletcher has a coupled entry in this race that looks very appealing, even at 2-1. Join The Dance, has two races under his belt, and his in last race he earned a monstrous ESF of 104. He was reeled in on the lead last time out, but I’m hoping he can go from flag fall to that’s all. His main competition will be the Asmussen and Bridgmahon combo on Unbridle’s Dream. Although heavily bet in his debut race, he sped to the lead and faded. I would stay away from the exotics in this race and place a straight win wager on the coupled entry of Join The Dance, and Forest Tango.
WIN on #1
$1 Pick 4 (1/1,3/1,4,6,10/2,6,12)
Race 3- This optional claimer brings about the return of the highly regarded Mushka. This filly was sidelined after a Grade 2 victory as a 2-year-old. She wont be my pick in this race. I’m going to go with One Carolina instead. I don’t think she will get much company up front, and she has been bulletproof in her two career starts. She has been tabbed at 3-1. My main reason for going against Mushka is the layoff. Many horses run well as two-year-olds only to fade away when they get older. I’m not saying this will be the case with her, but I want to see her race once as a three-year-old before I make up my mind.
$2 Exacta (1,3/1,3,4)
$1 Trifecta (1,3/1,3,4/1,3,4,6)
Race 4- While I am a bit concerned about his post position (10), I will go with Persian at 4-1. He has improved with every start, and will get an extra ½ furlong to get the job done today. Timothy Ritvo has two first time starters coupled as a single entry. Both have flashed some nice gate works and could get there at 8-1. The favorite is the Dutrow trainee Grimaldi. He has only a single race, and was 4 lengths behind my top choice Persian while finishing fourth.
$1 Exacta (1,6,10/1,4,6,10)
$1 Trifecta (10/1,4,6/1,3,4,6,7,8,9)
Race 5- Wow, this is such a large field that I don’t know where to begin. My top selection will be the Graham Motion trained Frenchman’s Cove. He is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time, and has competed valiantly against allowance foes. Cross The Atlantic looks tough with Ramon Dominguez in the irons. His last race can be discarded due to the lack of pace and the fact that he was checked more than once. He fits well with this group at 10-1.
$1 Exacta (2,12/,2,6,9,12)
$1 Trifecta (2,12/2,6,9,12/1,2,6,9,12)
Sanford Stakes
July 22, 2008
Ready's Image takes the 2007 edition of the Sanford Stakes
Sanford Stakes (Grade 2)
#1 Officer Ipod- First out winner from the barn of Anthony Dutrow. He won in wire-to-wire fashion in a time of :59 for five furlongs. The son of Officer will retain the services of Ramon Dominguez. I am a big fan of Dominguez, so that is a plus for me. There is no telling what type this one is, but he is going to have to adopt a new running style, or he will get burned up on the front end.
#2 Dagnabit- Undefeated winner of the Tremont is the lone stakes winner in the field. He should lay off the early pace, and make a move towards the top of the stretch. I’m not too impressed with his speed figures. I would definitely use him second and third, but I’m not sure if I would use him on top.
#3 Desert Party- This son of Street Cry is a $2.1 million purchase, owned by the famed Darley Stable. He was much the best first time out, earning an ESF of 93. He will have Edgar Prado in the irons for this one, and should be in the thick of it.
#4 Notonthesamepage- This colt is faaaaaast. He broke the Churchill Downs track record last out going 4 ½ furlongs, while earning an ESF of 107. Wesley Ward has him working like a machine. I’m kind of surprised to see Elvis Trujillo up, but he is capable. If this colt runs back to his last race its all over but the crying. You have to use this colt in all spots.
#5 Bullion Cache- Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez will hook up for this colt. Johnny is going to have to rate this guy, because Notonthesamepage will burn him up if he tries to go with him. These are two-year-olds and anything can happen, but I don’t see it happening for this son of Seeking The Gold.
#6 Vineyard Haven- Earned a very hefty ESF of 98 en route to a first time win at Calder. After that impressive win he was purchased by Bobby Frankel. That says something to me, and it should to you too. Frankel is one of the best trainers in the game and if he thought enough of this colt to purchase him, he is in with a shot. He is one of many with a chance to take this one.
#7 Phosphorescent- Robby Alborado and Dale Romans will hook up for this colt. He is the only colt in the race with a win at 6 furlongs and he took that race from the 9 hole. I like his running style and he should be in the race late. I’ll be throwing him in my exotic tickets.
1st- Vineyard Haven
2nd- Desert Party
3rd-Dagnabit
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (3,6/2,3,6/1,2,3,6,7)
Eddie Read & San Diego Handicap
July 18, 2008
Eddie Read Handicap (Grade 1)
Lava Man looks pretty tough in this race. He’s a tough old gelding, but hasn’t been to the winners circle since June of 2007. I expect Tyler Baze to gun him out to the lead again. Baze has been golden as of late, winning the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Swaps. Spring House should be ready to go in his first start since Dubai. He will be rolling late, but I don’t think he can catch Lava Man. Rafael Bejarano should also be flying late with Monzante. He beat Lava Man by a very slim margin last out, but I don’t think that will be the case this time due to the shorter distance.
1st- Lava Man
2nd- Spring House
3rd- Monzante
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (1/4,7/2,4,7)
$1 Superfecta (1/4,7/2,4,7/2,4,4,6,7)
San Diego Handicap (Grade 2)
Graham Motion will be sending Rebellion past a mile for what I believe to be the first time. I don’t think that should be a problem, but you never know. Rebellion is 2 for 2 so far this year, and he will have top jockey Rafael Bejarano in the irons. The ultra consistent Surf Cat will have David Flores up for the first time. He has only been off the board only twice in his career and I see no reason for this to be the third time. Well Armed should perform well first back from Dubai. He beat Heatseeker in his last race in the US, and I expect him to pick up where he left off.
1st- Rebellion
2nd- Surf Cat
3rd- Well Armed
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (2,3,6 BOX)
Virginia Derby
July 16, 2008
Virginia Derby (Grade 2)
#1 Your Round- James Lopez will retain the mount on this son of Distorted Humor. Third last out in the Colonial Turf Cup at 50-1, this colt should come running late. He was very wide running for home in that race. This colt is qualified for NW2 and I would rather see him there. I could see him getting third, but anything more than that is pushing it.
#2 Old Man Buck- I remember watching this colt win the Cradle Stakes at River Downs last September. He didn’t have much to run at when finishing third to Tizdejavu last out in the Jefferson Cup. That was also his first race since November of ’07 so I expect a much improved performance in this race. I don’t see him winning this one, but I will use him second and third.
#3 El Sultry Sun- Finished up track last out in the Colonial Turf Cup. I’ll give him a pardon since the track was wet. Edgar Prado will be picking up the mount. He will have a hard time winning this event. I like him to finish third at best.
#4 Court Vision- I felt he was a play against last out in the Colonial Turf Cup, and I was right. He finished 4th by 8 lengths. Since that was his first time over a wet track I’m willing to forgive his performance. I like him a lot more today at odds of 10-1. I’ll throw him in second and third.
#5 Baltimore Bob- Just like many others in this race, he didn’t do well in the Colonial Turf Cup. He has come back to fire a bullet 4 furlong work. He probably can’t win this one, but I could see him picking up third. If he could do that at 30-1, it would provide for a fat exotics payoff. I’ll cross my fingers.
#6 Budge Man- I highly doubt this one finds the winners circle, or even hits the board for that matter. I wouldn’t use this horse on any of my tickets.
#7 Gio Ponti- Undefeated minus a Breeders Cup loss, this colt won his first start since that loss in the Hill Prince on June 6. Garrett Gomez will retain the mount. Gio Ponti will be very tough in this spot. He should relish the extra distance and come flying along late in the race. I will use him in all spots on my exotic tickets, but he isn’t my choice for the win. He is however, the main rival.
#8 Sailor’s Cap- Smashing victor last out in the Colonial Turf Cup, he took that race by 6 lengths. I like his tactical speed, which should work to his advantage. His ESF in the Turf Cup was a monstrous 105. He is the 8/5 favorite and should be tough to take down. Look for him in the winners circle.
#9 Southwest- John Velazquez’s mount deserves more respect in this race. He has been running against some top class 3 year olds, including Gayego, Gorgie Boy, and Bob Black Jack. He won his first start off a layoff in a NW1X event, and then finished willingly to end up third in a minor stakes. This one could find his way into the exotics at 20-1.
1st- Sailor’s Cap (8/5)
2nd- Southwest (20-1)
3rd- Gio Ponti (9/5)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (7,8/2,4,7,8,9/1,2,4,5,7,8,9)
$1 Superfecta (7,8/2,7,8,9/2,4,7,8,9/1,2,4,5,7,8,9)
Virginia Oaks
July 15, 2008
Virginia Oaks (Grade 3)
#1 Miss Mafioso- This filly was left eating Pure Clan’s dust last time out when she finished 5th and last in the Regret. She seems to be in a bit over her head today. I wouldn’t include her on my tickets.
#2 Julia Tuttle- She really woke up two races back when she broke her maiden by 10 lengths. She has really nice speed early speed and that should work to her advantage. She has one of the top local jockeys. Her sire is Giant’s Causeway and his foals seem to be late bloomers. She is a threat, and I would use her in all three spots at 15-1.
#3 Nijinsky Ballet- Garrett Gomez will pick up the mount on this filly. She has been close going a mile, so the extra furlong should work to her advantage. She doesn’t look like much, but I can’t ignore her presence with Gomez up, so I will use her third.
#4 Athena’s Gift- Took quite a bit of time for her to break her maiden. She should be coming from pretty far back and I don’t think he pace is there to set up for her. I am going to toss her.
#5 Clara’s Song- Sired by Brahms, and trained by Carlos Garcia this one doesn’t seem to fit. She was the beaten favorite last out in an optional claimer. If she can’t hit the board in that race, how can she expect to win this one? I won’t be using her on my tickets.
#6 Three Graces- I like the tactical speed that this filly possesses. She was victorious last out in a minor stakes at Canterbury. The fact that Alborado is in the irons is a plus. I believe she will lay close to the pace and pounce late. I don’t like her chances to win, but I can see her running second or third.
#7 Namaste’s Wish- Sired by Pulpit, this filly was a $600,000 purchase at the Fasig Tipton sale in 2006. She hasn’t lived up to that price, but seems to be sitting on a breakthrough race. She reminds me of another Pulpit progeny, Pyro. Both of these horses love to come flying late. I don’t like her for the win, but I would include her second and third.
#8 Born To Be- Yet another filly who will be flying home late. By AP Indy, she just cleared the NW2 condition last out. She seems a bit outclassed, but given her pedigree I will include her third.
#9 Cherokee Queen- This filly should lay somewhat close to the pace. She has a career record of 2 wins from 3 starts. I really like her last win in which she covered 1 1/8 in 1:48 flat. Graham Motion is a master on the turf, and John Velazquez is one of the best jockeys around. I will include her on top of all my exotic tickets.
#10 I Lost My Choo- Here is your favorite. Just like many of the fillies in this race she will be springing her attack late in the game. She just missed for second two back in the Sands Point. Edgar Prado will retain the mount, which is encouraging. I don’t like the price, but I do recognize her capability. I have to use her in all three spots.
1st- Julia Tuttle (15-1)
2nd- Cherokee Queen (5-1)
3rd- Three Graces (8-1)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (2,9,10/2,6,7,9,10/2,3,6,7,8,9,10)
Saturday Stakes, Part I
July 10, 2008
Grade 2 American Derby
This should be a relatively easy wire to wire win for Greg Fox’s Tizdejavu. He is undefeated in two starts on the turf, and has speed to spare. He beat Sailors Cap two races back, and the latter would come back to capture the Colonial Turf Cup. Irish invader Great War Eagle should be in the thick of it. He has ran second in two Grade 3 events overseas, but will be stretching out for the first time. I look for Prime Realestate to get up late for third.
1st- Tizdejavu
2nd Great War Eagle
3rd- Prime Realestate
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (2/1,6,7,8/1,6,7,8
$20 WIN on Tizdejavu
Grade 2 Delaware Handicap
I’m going to go with Hystericalady in what is a very competitive race. She won by 7 lengths last out at Churchill Downs, but will have to go through Unbridled Belle and Spring Waltz. Unbridled Belle took this race with ease last year, and won her first race of 2008 in June. Spring Waltz has been bulletproof lately, winning four races in a row. Her last victory came in the Grade 2 Rampart Handicap in which she split rivals to win easily. No telling who will take this one, but my money is on Hystericalady.
1st- Hystericalady
2nd- Unbridled Belle
3rd- Spring Waltz
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (8,9/8,9,10/2,4,8,9,10)
Grade 1 Princess Rooney
July 8, 2008
7/12 (SAT) G1 Princess Rooney H.- CRC
#1 Dixie Dreamer- This mare won last out in a minor stakes earning a huge ESF of 101. I am not going to claim to be an exert on Calder, but 1:11 seems like a pretty slow time for 6 furlongs. She should come closing, but I don’t think she has much of a chance in this race.
#2 Mistical Plan- This filly has been everywhere. Whether winning the Sunshine Millions Oaks or running behind Rags to Riches in the Kentucky Oaks she always gives her all. She probably won’t be able to wrangle the early lead from Dream Rush, but I think she will be tracking close in second. Winning this race would be a tall order, but I definitely think she could be in the money.
#3 Bereba- She easily won a very cheap minor stakes last out, but I just don’t see her competing in this race. She isn’t classy enough.
#4 Dream Rush- The speed of the speed, this filly was reeled in by Looky Yonder last out. Dream Rush was the first filly to ever beat champion Dreaming of Anna in 2007. She ran well her second time off the shelf last year and I expect the same this time around. Wire to wire.
#5 Miraculous Miss-Ballsy move to run against the boys two back paid off when she finished 3rd. The winner of that race, Benny the Bull, is now the top sprinter in the country. Prior to that race she was second in the inaugural running of the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She caught a VERY tough field in her return and finished a close 4th. She should be right there when its all said and done.
#6 Looky Yonder- Dutrow’s filly has run two very nice races in a row. I’m looking for her to bounce this race. I don’t know why, but she just screams “I’m not going to run” to me. This probably means she will end up winning by 10 lengths. In all seriousness, I would use her third but I don’t see her running another big race.
#7 Rgirldoesn’tbluff- This filly NEEDS the lead and she may or may not get it. If she does, she will be under heavy pressure from the get go. Speed and fade.
1st- Dream Rush
2nd- Miraculous Miss
3rd- Mistical Plan
Plays:
$1 Trifecta: 4,5/3,4,5/3,4,5,6
