Shared Property

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$175k worth of graded stakes earning are on the line in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes from Fair Grounds on Saturday. The 1 mile and 70 yards race is the first in a series of three Kentucky Derby prep races at the Louisiana track. The other two are the $300k Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and $1 million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. A full field of 13 will vie for the top prize and it appears that as many as nine have a realistic chance of winning.

The Oklahoma bred Ted’s Folly (Wild Tale x Trick Dale by Sword Dance) is riding a six race win streak into the Lecomte. He was last seen winning the $300k Springboard Mile over Reckless Jerry, a colt that would return to post a sharp second place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The Wilson Brown trained and Jose Medina ridden colt is a deep closer. That could work to his advantage with so much speed signed on in this race.

Larry Jones’s colt Mr. Bowling (Istan x Goldilocks Bear by Irish Tower) will receive plenty of support. He was a 7 ¼ length winner of the Dover Stakes on October 8 at Delaware Park before finishing third as the favorite in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. He’s received plenty of time off since then and it appears he’s kicking the barn down based on his workouts. Larry Jones has a tendency to work his horses fast, but it is an encouraging indicator nonetheless. Robert Albarado is listed to ride.

Exfactor (Exchange Rate x Bright Magic by Prized) was an easy 2 ¾ length winner of the Grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs in July. He followed that win up with a nose victory over Laurie’s Rocket in the Sugar Bowl Stakes over this track on December 17. He does a nice job of waiting patiently behind the speed before pouncing on his foes. This will be a big test as he stretches out in distance for the first time. Bernard Flint trains and Shaun Bridgmahon will be in the irons.

Zayat Stables will send out the entry of Dan and Sheila (More Than Ready x Sheila’s Prospect by Not For Love) and Z Dager (Mizzen Mast x Fees Waived by Wavering Monarch). Dan and Sheila broke his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park and Z Dager was an impressive second out victor over this track. I’m a bit more impressed with Z Dager as he already owns a win at the distance and I loved the move he made to win that race. You could do worse than to bet an entry of composed of a horse from Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen, respectively. Dan and Sheila will be piloted by John Velazquez and Shane Sellers will ride Z Dager.

Seven Lively Sins (Stormy Atlantic x Carson’s Star by Carson City) is quite an interesting colt. He was never comfortable last out in the Delta Jackpot where he finished fourth with a slightly troubled trip. I don’t think he cared for racing on a bull ring track. Before that he almost took the field gate to wire in the Iroquois Stakes before submitting to Motor City for a second place finish beaten just ¾ of a length. His pedigree is tilted more towards sprinting so he could have a tough time going two turns here. Despite that, I think this one could develop into a very, very nice runner down the line if not in the Lecomte. Anna Napravnik rides for trainer Al Stall.

Hammers Terror (Artie Schiller x Sister Baby by Lord Avie) is likely to catch too much money. Both of his synthetic races were strong, but I’m not wild about his optional claiming win over this track. He beat Adena’s Chance in that race, a horse on that rail that has little to no chance in this spot. My gripe is that he didn’t really kick away strongly from that horse. Despite that, he did post a very quick :59 3/5 B five furlong move on January 7 and hasn’t done much wrong. He can win, but I can’t accept him at what is likely to be a short price. Look for James Graham to sit near the pace on the Michael Stidham pupil.

Many will dismiss Capetown Devil (Cape Town x Nureyev’s Angel by Nureyev) as being too cheap, but he answered that question last out against when he beat optional claiming company. It was actually pretty impressive as he stumbled badly and rallied four wide for the win. He hasn’t lost in three tries and has the benefit of a win over this track and at this distance. Overlooking him would be a big mistake. David Carro

I’m going to pass on Shared Property (Scat Daddy x Yoursmineours by Belong To Me). I’m not sure he wants to race on dirt even though he won first out at Ellis. That was maidens and these are Grade 3 horses. Throw in a three month layoff and I’m not interested in the Arlington-Washington Futurity winner. Tom Amoss trains and Leandro Goncalves is listed to ride.

Any number of horses could win here, but I’m going to go with Seven Lively Sins as my top pick. While I’ve got some reservations about how he will handle the distance, the price should be right and he is racing for top connections. The talent is there; we just have to hope the bottom is too. I’ll give a big look to Capetown Devil and Ted’s Folly as well. Look for Exfactor to run huge in his next race.

TVG- Watch. Wager. Win!