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2012 Grade 3 Pimlico Special Preview
May 16, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Alternation
The $300k Grade 3 Pimlico Special is a Grade 1 race in disguise. The 9.5 furlongs race features two Grade 1 winners, three Grade 2 winners and two Grade 3 winners. Of the remaining three horses all are graded placed or overnight stakes winners.
Alternation (Distorted Humor x Alternate by Seattle Slew) figures to go favored after a brilliant win in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap where he controlled the race from start to finish. The three-time graded stakes winner has enough early zip to go wire to wire, but has also scored from as far back as seventh. If the muscly colt brings his best game he could easily triumph here for trainer Donnie Von Hemel and jockey Luis Quinonez.
Todd Pletcher’s Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) will get plenty of support. The 2010 Louisiana Derby winner hasn’t won since taking the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap last year, but owns a near miss in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap this year as well as a second place finish to Fair Grounds phenom Nate’s Mineshaft last out in the 2012 edition of the New Orleans Handicap. Tough field are nothing new for Mission Impazible and he will offer value as the “forgotten” horse. JJ Castalleno retains the mount.
It took a few starts for Endorsement (Distorted Humor x Charmed Gift by AP Indy) to get rolling again, but the 2010 Grade 3 Sunland Derby champ has looked stellar in his last two starts. His last trip to the track was an easy two length victory over a salty group in the Grade 3 Texas Mile 21 days ago. Now, the well bred router will get a chance to stretch his legs against some of the best two turns company in the nation. Martin Garcia picks up the mount for Eoin Harty.
Hymn Book (Arch x Vespers by Known Fact) ran a career best race to win the Donn Handicap by a nose two starts back, but didn’t show the same speed last out in the Oaklawn Handicap where he flattened out to be fourth. The Shug McGaughey charge would likely benefit from a wet track as he owns four of his seven wins in the off going. John Velazquez will stay aboard on the six-year-old dark bay or brown gelding.
Graham Motion trainees win at a 27% clip when racing on 46-90 days rest. That matters because Grade 1 Wood Memorial champ Toby’s Corner (Bellamy Road x Brandon’s Ride by Mister Frisky) enters this race after a 48 day respite. He was shelved prior to the 2011 Kentucky Derby because of an injury and has raced twice since then with a close third place finish in the Grade 2 General George Handicap going seven panels and a distant third place effort in the New Orleans Handicap. Look for him to peak in this spot and run one of the best races of his career under Eddie Castro.
Zayat Stables has finished second in the Kentucky Derby three times. The second time was with Nehro (Mineshaft x The Administrator by Afleet) who will be making his fourth start since closing to be second to Animal Kingdom last year. Like Toby’s Corner, he was shelved last year because of an injury. He returned in 2012 to win by just over seven lengths against a pitiful optional claiming group at Fair Grounds. After that, he failed to fire while finishing sixth in the Oaklawn Handicap. Horse bettors should go ahead and draw a line through that race as it was only his second of the year and the race did not set up in his favor. His excellent staying power will serve him well here. Corey Nakatani will stay aboard for Steve Asmussen.
Many will pass on Yawanna Twist (Yonaguska x Twist And Pop by Oliver’s Twist) thinking he cant go the distance, but one of his best career efforts came at this track and distance when he was fourth beaten just two lengths by Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness Stakes. All three horses who finished ahead of him that day returned to win a Grade 1 race at some point in their career. He is in sharp form with a win in the General George Handicap two races back and a last out third place effort in the Oaklawn Handicap. We know he loves this track and he will be a huge price. That makes him a must use on all multiple race exotic tickets.
Cease, Cherokee Artist and Eighttofasttocatch round out the field.
This is a very tough race and I don’t have an opinion as far as a single horse to win. However, I recommend going deep on the Pick 4 and hoping something crazy happens. Bombers like Yawanna Twist and Toby’s Corner are legitimate win threats.
Don’t forget to play the race at Twinspires.com where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!
2012 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Picks
May 15, 2012 By Leave a Comment
The $300k Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes is race 10 at Pimlico on Friday. The 2012 edition of this prestigious race features a strong field of nine lasses reay to go the nine furlongs distance on the day before the Preakness Stakes.
Glinda The Good (Hard Spun x Magical Flash by Miswaki): This one probably isn’t suited for top competition at this distance, but I must comment on her absolutely tremendous pedigree. She is a half sibling to several stakes horses and the broodmare is half to Grade 1 winner Magical Maiden. That said, I don’t see the closer having a shot at anything more than a minor award. Corey Nakatani rides for Steve Asmussen.
Disposablepleasure (Giacomo x My Canada by With Approval): Who could forget her amazing win the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes last year where she rallied from last to win despite a bad stumble? She hasn’t shown that talent in two starts as a sophomore, but Todd Pletcher seems to think she still has it. JJ Castellano has the assignment on this closing lass.
Welcome Guest (Unbridled’s Song x My Friend C. Z. by Seeking The Gold): Produced a sharp effort last out to be second in the Grade 3 Comely Stakes behind Kentucky Oaks second place finisher Broadway’s Alibi. Before that she broke her maiden by five and two parts of a length against four other foes at Gulfstream. This filly is bred to love the distance, but this is a tough spot to go two turns for the first time. Keep an eye on her for the future, but don’t count on here this time. Ramon Dominguez will be up for Chad Brown.
Mamma Kimbo (Discreet Cat x Bag Lady Jane by Devil’s Bag): Impressive winner of the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes for Bob Baffert last out. She won that race after having just a six furlong maiden win to her name. The second and third place finishers in the Fantasy had little to no impact on the Kentucky Oaks in their next starts so we should naturally question the quality of that group. The 7-5 favorite could get a free lunch on the lead and that will make her dangerous. Without a doubt the horse to beat given her recent works, early speed and ability to get the distance.
Oaks Lily (Badge of Silver x En Silence by Rahy): On figures, this one hasn’t really got a shot. She broke her maiden by a nose at Keeneland, but that was her eighth trip to the races. The works are hot and the connections are dead set on facing top competition. They have secured top jockey Julien Leparoux as well. Cant see it on paper, but there are subtle signs that the Timothy Hills pupil may have turned the corner.
Plum (Pure Prize x Bamba by Not For Love): She beat Acting Happy last out, a five year old mare that won this race in 2010. Her rival had trouble, but it was a good effort nonetheless. Versatile runner can stalk and close, but might have trouble going the distance in this spot. Abel Castellano rides for Rodney Jenkins.
In Lingerie (Empire Maker x Cat Chat by Storm Cat): Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners scooped this filly up and sent her to Todd Pletcher after an impressive six length debut win at Turfway Park. Her first start for the new connections was a second place effort in an optional claiming event at Gulfstream, where she was four and two parts of a length behind the magnificent Zo Impressive. Her last start was in the Grade 3 Bourbonette Stakes at Turfway where she trampled the competition by six lengths in wire to wire fashion. I’m going to look for her to sit right behind the favorite and outlast her in the stretch. She is my top pick to win with John Velazquez a board.
Wildcat’s Smile (Forest Wildcat x Serenity’s Smile by Dixie Brass): Won her 2012 debut against statebred company at Aqueduct on April 20. She was second in the Demoiselle to Disposablepleasure to end her 2011 campaign. It’s tough to see her holding up at this distance second off the shelf against such stellar company. Dominic Galluscio trains and Anna Napravnik will ride.
Zucchini Flower (Flower Alley x Heathers Promise by Silver Buck): She is bred to stay for days and the works are strong. It’s tough to picture her winning based off that last race, but Graham Motion knows what he is doing. Sheldon Russell will be in the irons.
Our top pick to win the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes is In Lingerie. She strikes me as a filly that is only going to improve with more distance and she should sit a perfect trip behind the speed. Look for favored Mamma Kimbo to hold on for second place honors. You can bet this race at TVG, where new players get a $150 sign up bonus!
Grade II Peter Pan Stakes betting preview
May 10, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Summer Front
The $200k Grade II Peter Pan Stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park is the best betting race of the weekend. The one turn, nine furlong race has attracted a contentious group of twelve sophomore contenders. It will go forward as race 8, making it the penultimate event of the $350k Guaranteed Late Pick 4.
Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen x Pocho’s Dream Girl by Fortunate Prospect) will play the role of 5-2 morning line favorite for trainer Larry Jones and jockey Rosie Napravnik. The mid-pack closer was eligible for the Kentucky Derby, but passed in favor of this race. His work tab is strong and a five furlong bullet in :59 3/5 B on May 7 indicates that he is ready to do his best running. The bay colt will be attempting to make amends for his second place finish in the Grade II Louisiana Derby where he was unable to pass long shot Hero of Order in the stretch.
There appears to be a surplus of early pace in the Peter Pan Stakes and the speed of the speed is 7-2 second choice The Lumber Guy (Grand Slam x Boltono by Unbridled’s Song). The Michael Hushion pupil was last seen wiring the field in the Grade II Jerome Stakes over two Bob Baffert shippers, Brigand and Stirred Up. Before that, he led for the first six furlongs of the Grade I Wood Memorial Stakes before backing up to a fifth place finish. It should be interesting to see how he holds up under Michael Luzzi.
Master Rick (Master Command x Whata Gem by Maria’s Mon) also figures to be involved in the early pace at 10-1. Since joining the Steve Asmussen barn he is 2 for 2, with a maiden win and a triumph over Grade 1 winner Drill in the Northern Spur Stakes. He is one of many horses capable of winning this race. Corey Nakatani retains the mount.
My pick to win the Peter Pan Stakes is Summer Front (War Front x Rose of Summer by El Prado). He owns 3 wins from 4 lifetime starts and has proven himself capable of overcoming a bad trip, something he did when winning the Dania Beach Stakes on December 18. His running style will greatly benefit him in this spot as he likes to make a move from mid-pack.
Many will have qualms about his ability to race on dirt, but the young stallion War Front has produced dirt graded stakes winners The Factor and Soldat and broodmare sire El Prado produced dirt graded stakes winners like Medaglia d’Oro, Borrego and Asi Siempre. Admittedly, his pedigree is predisposed to turf racing. However, that does not preclude him from running well on dirt. If trainer Christophe Clement thinks he can do it then I’m inclined to trust his judgement. This guy is too good to pass up at 8-1 with Belmont ace Ramon Dominguez in the irons.
Teeth of the Dog will likely scratch in favor of the Preakness one week later.
Zetterholm, Le Bernardin, Good Morning Diva, Hakama, Big Screen and Street Life round out the field.
Going to play the $350k Guaranteed Pick 4? Here is our ticket: 1,3,4,7,8/ALL/11/5,9. This bet will likely pay at least a thousand dollars if we can get it home! Be sure to play at Twinspires.com where new accounts get a $100 sign up bonus.
$25k on the line at DerbyWars
March 2, 2012 By 3 Comments
I’ve been betting horses for longer than I can remember (okay, not that long; about six years!), but it’s taken until now for me to start playing tournaments. I’m 21 years old, so I haven’t been old enough to participate in the vast majority of tournaments until late last year. It’s good I didn’t know what I was missing because I would have found a way around the age requirement.
Tournament play is hard to beat. It brings excitement and competition along with the chance to win large sums of cash. DerbyWars brings the experience to the internet. DerbyWars is a one of a kind tournament site that allows players to compete for prizes big and small based on something simple; their ability to pick winners.
The biggest tournament in the history of the nearly one year old site is set for March 10. The “$25k Monthly Shootout” will pit 165 players against each other for a total prize pool of $25k. The winner will take home a cool $9,936 and second place isn’t bad either at $4,853. Everyone in the top 8 brings home a minimum of $345 along with an entry to next months $25k game.
Entries cost $175 each, but players can qualify through satellite games for as little as $12. I won my tickets in winner take all games featuring 4 players and 8 players, respectively. It cost me $50 and $25 to enter those satellites. So, I effectively got $350 worth of entries for $75. Not too shabby.
If you like to bet horses I cannot give DerbyWars any higher recommendation. Check it today and get in the game while you can. There are only 117 seats remaining for the $25k game and they will go fast!
Ultimate Eagle the pick to win Santa Anita Handicap
March 2, 2012 By Leave a Comment
The Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap is the one of the marquee events of the Santa Anita winter/spring meet. Classic horses such Alysheba, Free House and Lava Man has won this race in the past. This year’s rendition took a bit of a hit when defending champion Game On Dude decided to defect from the race to go after the riches in Dubai later in the month. A field of thirteen lines up in attempt to take over the crown, with the four year old Ultimate Eagle being the morning line favorite. Let’s take a look at some of the contenders in a race run at the same distance and track as this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Ultimate Eagle has won of all his races by using his early speed to clear off from his rivals and never giving them a chance to catch him. He won the Grade 2 Strub Stakes last time out, clearing away from fellow speedball Tapizar, putting that foe and the rest of the field away winning by several lengths. He has worked well since the race, including a bullet work across town at his base at Hollywood Park. The ten furlongs is not an issue, since he won a Grade 1 at the distance (on turf). His main defect is that if he does not make the lead, he will not pass another horse. If some other horse insists on the lead, it could hurt the Eagle’s chances.
Setsuko is the highest returning finisher from last year’s edition. He finished a game second after taking the worst of the bumping incident. The rest of his year didn’t go so well, leading to him being gelded after his poor finish in the Pacific Classic. He came back this year seemingly a new horse, winning an allowance race in fine fashion. His nasty hanging habit looks to be behind him, and he would seem to appreciate every yard of the ten furlong distance. But was the allowance win just an aberration?
Ron the Greek is the sole out-of-town invader in the field, having finished second in the Sunshine Millions Classic last time out. This one time Derby Trail casualty struggled to find the winner’s circle for nearly two years until he was turned over to hands of his current trainer Bill Mott (trainer of Cigar and last year’s BC Classic winner Drosselmeyer). He has not been out of the exacta in his four races in his current barn. He has developed more into a grinder than the pure closer he once was, allowing him to stay within contact of the leaders early. He seems to be going better than ever, but can he handle the rise to Grade 1 competition along with the ten furlong distance?
Norvsky is an interesting longshot. From the same connections as Champion Older Male Acclamation, this Cal-bred looks to add to his G2 win at the meet. In his only other dirt try, he finished a good second to a lone speed horse. While ten furlongs might be his upper limit, he has shown plenty in his recent turf stakes efforts to deserve a shot against this field. He figures to sit mid-pack and grind his way to victory. Class could be a problem.
Bob Baffert looks to three-peat with his second-stringer Prayer For Relief. While he is a multiple graded stakes winner, he has been well beaten in his last three starts. Even his work tab does not show those typical swift early a.m. drills that Baffert is known for with his charges. Uh Oh Bango is a game animal who has put together two nice efforts lately but it looks like this is just too far for him.
Our pick to win the Big ‘Cap is Ultimate Eagle. He looks head and shoulders the best in this race. Martin Pedroza says he is the best horses among thousands that he has ridden. He hasn’t peaked yet either. Look for him to put on a show in the Santa Anita Handicap. If he should falter, or if you doubt him, look to Ron The Greek and Setsuko.
Kentucky Derby heavyweight contenders set for Fountain of Youth
February 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Algorithms
The Grade 2 $400k Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gulfstream Park|Race 11|Sunday) has been quite productive in recent years. Among its winners are great horses like Eskendereya, Quality Road, Scat Daddy, and Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. 2012 has produced a group with not one, but three horses capable of joining the ranks of the heralded horses above. Let’s break down the mile and sixteenth race!
Discreet Dancer (Discreet Dancer x West Side Dancer by Gone West), from the barn of Todd Pletcher, won his first two race by a combined 15 and a quarter lengths and was ridden out in both efforts. He’s got plenty of early sizzle and should be on or near the lead in this spot. John Velazquez gets the mount from JJ Castellano who gave up this ride, along with Union Rags, to stay on Algorithms.
This type of horse is so tough to get a read on. He’s clearly very talented, but has faced next to nothing thus far in his young career. Discreet Dancer could win this thing by a few lengths or get burned up on the front and finish fourth. This will be his first time going two turns and that isn’t easy for any horse to do; especially against graded stakes winners. I’m going to lean against him while acknowledging that he stands plenty of chance to make me look like an idiot.
Algorithms (Bernardini x Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance), another Todd Pletcher trainee, is a push button horse with a devastating turn of foot. That’s part of the reason why jockey JJ Castellano chose him over Union Rags. JJ is winning everything in sight right now and will give this one a great ride.
Like Discreet Dancer, this is his first time going two turns. That is countered by the fact that Algorithms is due for a peak effort racing third off the layoff. It’s tough to say how good he is, but I really love his running style and late kick. Bettors that back this colt are getting perhaps the best jockey going right now and a tremendously fast untested runner.
I usually don’t like layoff horses in a race like this, but Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West) is a special case. The hulking colt stands 17 hands tall and has already proved he can run huge in a situation like this one. Trainer Michael Matz says the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner is as ready as he could possible be and the works are strong.
The setup of the race could work in favor of the versatile Union Rags. He can be near the pace or come from the back. It’s going to be interesting to see what new jockey Julien Leparoux decides upon. It could make the difference in winning and losing.
It’s tough to separate Discreet Dancer, Algorithms, and Union Rags. This could all come down to the decisions made by the jockeys. I’m going to go with Union Rags as my pick. He figures to sit the best trip behind the speed. Not only that, but he is the proven commodity. You wont get a huge price, but if you’re brave enough to single him on the Pick 4 or 5 it would make a huge difference.
Much is unknown heading into the Fountain of Youth, but a new Kentucky Derby favorite could emerge when the dust settles. Win or lose, this is the type of event that horse racing fans anticipate for days in advance. I cant wait to watch!
Plan to bet the Fountain of Youth Stakes? Do so at TVG where new players get a $100 sign up bonus! Also, check out our Twitter page for great horse racing picks and thoughts.
Kentucky Derby hopefuls set for split Southwest Stakes
February 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Junebugred
It is extremely rare to see a graded stakes event split into two races, but it has happened with the 2012 Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn Park. Both races are filled with solid Kentucky Derby contenders. Let’s break them down!
The first Southwest Stakes (Race 8 ) features last out Smarty Jones Stakes winner Junebugred. The lightly raced Corinthian colt dispatched a good field in that race and he has every right to move forward. Jockey Joe Bravo is back for trainer Steve Hobby. He will be firing from mid pack and could find himself on our Kentucky Derby Contenders list with a win here. I’ll make him my top selection at odds of 7/2.
Those looking to play a long shot should consider Laurie’s Rocket. The son of Bluegrass Cat was beaten two lengths while checking in fifth last out in the Smarty Jones. He is working very well since that race and gets a big jockey upgrade in the form of three time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel. The colt projects to be double digit odds and that makes him an overlay.
The second Southwest Stakes (Race 9) will feature Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle as a prohibitive favorite. The Bob Baffert trainee was last seen finishing second by a half length to Out of Bounds in the Sham Stakes. It was his first time going past six furlongs. He was defeated by a very good colt that day and I fully expect him to rebound with a win under Rafeal Bejarano.
If an upset is going to happen, it will come from Cyber Secret. Kentucky Derby winning trainer Lynn Whiting sends this one out third off the shelf with Channing Hill in the irons. He was last seen taking an allowance field wire to wire while earning an exceptional 100 BRISnet figure. Look for him to fire from off the pace.
You can bet this race at Twinspires.com where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!
Force Freeze formidable in Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes
February 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Typically, a horse exiting a strong Breeders’ Cup performance makes for a good bet against opportunity. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Force Freeze in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship. (Gulfstream|Race 10|Saturday) The seven year old gelding will try for his first graded stakes win after finishing second by a neck to Amazombie in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
If the works are any indication, the Peter Walden trainee will be hard to handle. He has had six moves since his last race, including a six furlong work over the Gulfstream track in 1:10 4/5 H. It’s tough to judge the works without actually having witnessed them, but something that fast is hard to argue with under just about any circumstances.
This will be the son of Forest Camp’s first try going seven furlongs, but that I don’t think it will matter too much. He has enough pedigree to go a flat one turn mile if they wanted to give it a shot. Paco Lopez will be in the irons. He rode him to victory in an overnight stakes at Monmouth last year followed by a runner up performance in the Vosburgh. Force Freeze is 8/5 on the morning line.
The toughest challenge to the favorite is likely to come from Ian Wilkes Grade 1 winner Capt Candyman Can. It has been about 10 months since he last saw the winners circle, but he still has plenty of run left in his legs. He gets a favorable set up too, as this is one of his favorite tracks and he owns five wins from six starts at the distance. JJ Castellano will reunite with the gelding for the first time since 2009.
It looks like the top two in here have the rest outclassed. The bet is a simple two horse box. It’s not going to pay a ton, but if you play something like a $20 exacta box you might end up getting back a decent profit of about $100. Play the race at TVG where new accounts get a $100 sign up bonus!
2012 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap Preview
February 10, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Big Blue Kitten
The 2012 Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (Gulfstream|Saturday|Race 8) has attracted 10 entries with Turf Classic winner Get Stormy listed as the 121 lbs. high weight. The nine furlong turf race carries a purse of $300k. Recent winners include Breeders’ Cup Mile victors Kip Deville and Court Vision as well as multiple Grade 1 winner Einstein.
Silver Medallion (Badge of Silver x Another Vegetarian by Stalwart) will break from the rail for trainer Todd Pletcher. The four-year-old has posted consecutive wins against Grade 3 company on the grass. He has looked well in both wins, but this will be a true acid test for him.
Big Blue Kitten (Kitten’s Joy x Spent Gold by Unaccounted For) gets Julien Leparoux in the irons this time as John Velazquez will ride another horse. Last out he closed from last to be third by 1 1/2 lengths after getting away from the gate a step slow. That optional claiming race was his first trip to the track in almost five months. Before that he reeled off five consecutive wins, including a victory in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga.
We last saw Boisterous (Distorted Humor x Emanating by Cox’s Ridge) in November when he won the Grade 2 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct. Before that he won the Grade 3 Knickerbocker at Belmont. This is a good horse, but I ‘m not really wild on his chances. Sure, he could win, but at 3-1 I am going to pass him up. John Velazquez will get a leg up here from trainer Shug McGaughey.
Thomas Bush only wins 10% of the time with runners on a 90+ day rest. Throw in the fact that Get Stormy (Stormy Atlantic x Foolish Gal by Kiri’s Clown) failed in his 2011 debut and I can’t like him at a short price carrying more weight than anyone else in the field. Nice horse to be sure, but not worth a bet in this spot.
Bill Mott’s Al Khali (Medaglia d’Oro x Maya by Capote) has all the talent in the world, but just cant seem to win. He enters this race on a 4 month rest after failing to win in 2011. He did finish third in two Grade 1′s last year, but at a short price he is hard to justify here.
My top selection to win the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap is Big Blue Kitten. The Chad Brown trainee loves to win races and should be much stronger in his second race of the year. I also expect Julien Leparoux to position him well. You can bet this 12/1 shot at Twinspires.com where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!
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