Alpha

The $200k Grade 3 Withers Stakes is back in business after missing 2011. The 8 ½ furlong race is a key New York prep for the Kentucky Derby. The next two races of note in the Empire State are the $400k Grade 3 Gotham Stakes and the $1 million Wood Memorial. The Withers is race 9 on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Alpha (Bernardini x Munnaya by Nijinsky II) really sticks out in this field seven. The colt looked tremendous while winning the Count Fleet Stakes over this track last out. He did so despite bobbling at the break and racing three wide. He figures to sit a nice trip behind the speed before pouncing under Ramon Dominguez for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

It’s tough to make money on a horse like Alpha. I’m not the greatest in the world at guessing post time odds, but he will certainly be favored. Probably somewhere between 4-5 and 6-5. We can try to improve the value by playing an exacta. Tiger Walk (Tale of the Cat x Majestic Trail by Kris S.) stands a strong chance of finishing second at what projects to be a decent price. He enters this race after winning two in a row at Laurel. Those races were against much lesser foes, but he won them impressively.

I’m really looking forward to seeing how Alpha performs here for his Godolphin connections. He’s still a tad bit under the radar and isn’t considered to be among the top three or four Kentucky Derby contenders by very many people. That could change with a big effort in the Withers and I certainly expect to see him do something big here.

Who are your picks for the Withers Stakes? Leave a comment and share your thoughts. Also, consider playing this race at TVG where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

Apriority is favored to win the SSM Sprint

The Sunshine Millions Sprint (Gulfstream Park|Race 7|Saturday) is a very productive race. Last year’s winner, Amazombie, went on take the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Other notable winners include Benny The Bull, Smokey Stover and Bordonaro. It should be noted that this year’s running is restricted to Florida-bred horses.

Royal Currier (Red Bullet x Top of the League by Lite The Fuse) rates a very strong chance in this six furlong sprint. He exits the $75k Valley Forge Stakes at Parx, where he raced four wide to easily dismiss two top horses in JJ’s Lucky Train and Poseidon’s Warrior. His figures are the best in the race and he’s working strongly. This gelding should break to the lead and take them as far as he can. I think he takes them all the way; he’s my top pick. Ramon Dominguez rides for Patricia Farro.

The main threat to my selection is the favorite, Apriority (Grand Slam x Midway Squall by Storm Bird). He produced a tremendous run to win the Grade 3 Mr Prospector last out over this course, despite a bad stumble at the start. He really loves this track and jockey Luis Saez fits him like a glove. The David Fawkes trained colt looks ready to run a big one. I’m going to hope he can’t get past Royal Currier in the stretch.

Cajun Breeze (Congrats x Cajun Dawn by Awesome Again) is an interesting option. He races third off the shelf here after breaking maiden last out over this course. It was a very easy win for the Michael Yates trained closer and the past performances say he was ridden out. There is value with him at 10-1. Juan Leyva will be in the irons.

I really like Royal Currier’s chances to win the Sunshine Millions Sprint at 6-1. You can bet him at TVG where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

Mucho Macho Man

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Last year we saw Tackleberry spring a 27-1 upset in the Sunshine Millions Classic. This year, with a short field of just seven competitors, we aren’t likely to see a bomb of that magnitude. That doesn’t mean value has vanished though.

Duke of Mischief (Graeme Hall x My Lady Amelia by Real Courage) has spotty recent form, but he’s got the best back class in the race. One of the best handicap horses of 2011, he won the $1 million Charles Town Classic over a very salty group in April. He’s had a rough time since then, but the work tab indicates he’s ready to fire a big shot. Specifically, I really like the :48 B 1/75 four furlong move at Calder. Don’t count the David Fawkes horse out. Joe Bravo will ride.

Adios Charlie (Indian Charlie x Teak Totem by Northern Afleet) should catch plenty of action and I’m glad for that; he’s a play against. This colt wants no part of nine furlongs against a horse like Duke of Mischief  or Mucho Macho Man. The average winning distance of his sire and broodmare sire is 6.6 furlongs. He will be over bet and should be avoided until he turns back to a one turn mile.

Todd Pletcher’s Turbo Compressor (Halo’s Image x Dixieland Event by Wild Event) will be ridden by his main man, John Velazquez. He drew away by 10 ½ lengths last out in a $150k Florida-bred race. He did so after making an easy lead. That wont happen in this race and it severely decreases his chances. Toss him at a short price.

Kathy Ritvo’s Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno x Ponche de Leona by Ponche) is an interesting horse. He scorched a decent group quite easily last out at Aqueduct all the way back at the beginning of November. I’m not quite sure he wants to go this far, but I like his chances of doing so more than Adios Charlie. He’s the main threat to my choice.

Ron The Greek (Full Mandate x Flambe’ by Fortunate Prospect) should have his fair share of support after winning back to back overnight stakes for Bill Mott. He has changed his running style and is now closer to the pace early on. I’m not sure that he beat much in his last two races and this is a big step up in class. I can’t like him in this spot.

My top pick to win the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic is Duke of Mischief. He’s the classiest horse in the race and if the works are any indication, he is ready for a big time run. Mucho Macho man also deserves consideration based on the strength of his last race.

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Dayatthespa

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The three-year-old turf filly division doesn’t get a lot of attention until later in the year, but it makes sense to start paying attention now. This is especially true when there is money to be made betting a strong race like the Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream which has attracted a competitive field of nine.

I’m pretty fond of Wholelottashakin (Scat Daddy x Carr Shaker by Crr de Naskra) in this spot. She was last seen in the Ginger Brew finishing sixth beaten two lengths. It was her first time going two turns and she had a very rough beginning. Despite that, she was closing best of all in the middle of the track in the late stages of the race. With a better break and a bit quicker pace, she could surprise bettors at 8-1. The Thomas Bush trained and Alex Solis ridden filly is my top choice here.

Ann of the Dance (English Channel x Dans La Ville by Winning) is the other logical horse. The $3k yearling purchase is also exiting the Ginger Brew, where she finished third beaten ¾ of a length after a tough trip. Julien Leparoux picks up the mount on the turf  filly and that alone makes her very live at 3-1. Martin Wolfson is the trainer.

New York-bred Dayatthespa (City Zip x M’lady Doc by Doc’s Leader) will attract plenty of support. She was last seen finishing a tired ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Before that she relented late to be second in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine. That has proved to be a productive race with third place finisher Stephanie’s Kitten returning to win the Alcibiades Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The Sweetest Chant Stakes is the 10th race from Gulfstream on Sunday. You can bet my pick, Wholelottashakin (8-1), at TVG where new accounts get a $100 sign up bonus.

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Drill

Many thought of Drill (Lawyer Ron x Cat Dancer by Storm Cat) as a top Kentucky Derby contender after he took the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.

It’s been mostly downhill since then.

He returned from his Grade 1 win to finish second in the Grade 1 Norfolk, but was then 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, seventh in the Delta Jackpot and ninth in the CashCall Futurity. Trainer Bob Baffert is now dropping him in class and turning him back in distance in hopes of getting a win.

Drill has been very head strong in his last two races, vying for the lead in both before he faded. When he won the Del Mar Futurity he was able to relax and make a move from fifth. It would be wise to try and revert to those tactics and I fully expect to see Martin Garcia try to relax him. With lots of speed signed on, it would be the right move.

In my eyes, there is only one horse that might be able to compete with Drill. That is the rail horse, Midnight Transfer (Hard Spun x French Satin by French Deputy). He broke his maiden over this track going six furlongs last out in what was his fourth attempt at doing so. It looks like he’s getting good at the right time for trainer Carla Gaines. Joel Rosario should be able to sit a great trip so long as he breaks well. I’ll call for him to pull off the upset.

The $75,000 San Pedro Stakes is the fourth race from Santa Anita on Sunday. You can play it Twinspires.com where new members get a $100 sign up bonus.

Great Hot

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The Grade 2 La Canada Stakes on Sunday from Santa Anita is the final of a trio of races for four year old fillies. The $150k race has a strong recent history with winners like Life Is Sweet who would go on to capture the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. SouthCoast Bloodstock selected 2010 winner, Striking Dancer, for Stevestan Stables.

May Day Rose (Rockport Harbour x May Day Bluff by Pine Bluff) will break from the rail for Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. She was last seen fading in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, a race that was too short for her. Before that she was second by a head in the Grade 2 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs. The lass has plenty of speed and should make the lead early on.

It’s likely that Big Tiz (Tiznow x Squall City by Carson City) will fly under the radar. Out of a stakes winning mare and by a two Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, she’s bred to go two turns on the dirt. This will be her first time doing so. She posted a very strong effort in the 6 ½ furlong Kalookan Queen Handicap last out to be second behind a good filly named Rumor. That race should have tightened the bolts well enough to have her nice and fit for the La Canada. She’s my top pick and she should be a big price. Corey Nakatain will ride for trainer Mark Glatt.

Great Hot (Orientate x That’s Hot by Seeking The Gold) is the likely favorite after finishing third in the Grade 1 La Brea last out. She had a rough trip there and was probably capable of a better finish. The highlight of her 2010 campaign was a win in the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland. She was third in the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret over this same track and distance before that. I expect a sharp effort from this one.

Other key contenders include Include Me Out, Capital Plan and Tiz Flirtatious.

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Shared Property

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$175k worth of graded stakes earning are on the line in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes from Fair Grounds on Saturday. The 1 mile and 70 yards race is the first in a series of three Kentucky Derby prep races at the Louisiana track. The other two are the $300k Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and $1 million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. A full field of 13 will vie for the top prize and it appears that as many as nine have a realistic chance of winning.

The Oklahoma bred Ted’s Folly (Wild Tale x Trick Dale by Sword Dance) is riding a six race win streak into the Lecomte. He was last seen winning the $300k Springboard Mile over Reckless Jerry, a colt that would return to post a sharp second place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The Wilson Brown trained and Jose Medina ridden colt is a deep closer. That could work to his advantage with so much speed signed on in this race.

Larry Jones’s colt Mr. Bowling (Istan x Goldilocks Bear by Irish Tower) will receive plenty of support. He was a 7 ¼ length winner of the Dover Stakes on October 8 at Delaware Park before finishing third as the favorite in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. He’s received plenty of time off since then and it appears he’s kicking the barn down based on his workouts. Larry Jones has a tendency to work his horses fast, but it is an encouraging indicator nonetheless. Robert Albarado is listed to ride.

Exfactor (Exchange Rate x Bright Magic by Prized) was an easy 2 ¾ length winner of the Grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs in July. He followed that win up with a nose victory over Laurie’s Rocket in the Sugar Bowl Stakes over this track on December 17. He does a nice job of waiting patiently behind the speed before pouncing on his foes. This will be a big test as he stretches out in distance for the first time. Bernard Flint trains and Shaun Bridgmahon will be in the irons.

Zayat Stables will send out the entry of Dan and Sheila (More Than Ready x Sheila’s Prospect by Not For Love) and Z Dager (Mizzen Mast x Fees Waived by Wavering Monarch). Dan and Sheila broke his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park and Z Dager was an impressive second out victor over this track. I’m a bit more impressed with Z Dager as he already owns a win at the distance and I loved the move he made to win that race. You could do worse than to bet an entry of composed of a horse from Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen, respectively. Dan and Sheila will be piloted by John Velazquez and Shane Sellers will ride Z Dager.

Seven Lively Sins (Stormy Atlantic x Carson’s Star by Carson City) is quite an interesting colt. He was never comfortable last out in the Delta Jackpot where he finished fourth with a slightly troubled trip. I don’t think he cared for racing on a bull ring track. Before that he almost took the field gate to wire in the Iroquois Stakes before submitting to Motor City for a second place finish beaten just ¾ of a length. His pedigree is tilted more towards sprinting so he could have a tough time going two turns here. Despite that, I think this one could develop into a very, very nice runner down the line if not in the Lecomte. Anna Napravnik rides for trainer Al Stall.

Hammers Terror (Artie Schiller x Sister Baby by Lord Avie) is likely to catch too much money. Both of his synthetic races were strong, but I’m not wild about his optional claiming win over this track. He beat Adena’s Chance in that race, a horse on that rail that has little to no chance in this spot. My gripe is that he didn’t really kick away strongly from that horse. Despite that, he did post a very quick :59 3/5 B five furlong move on January 7 and hasn’t done much wrong. He can win, but I can’t accept him at what is likely to be a short price. Look for James Graham to sit near the pace on the Michael Stidham pupil.

Many will dismiss Capetown Devil (Cape Town x Nureyev’s Angel by Nureyev) as being too cheap, but he answered that question last out against when he beat optional claiming company. It was actually pretty impressive as he stumbled badly and rallied four wide for the win. He hasn’t lost in three tries and has the benefit of a win over this track and at this distance. Overlooking him would be a big mistake. David Carro

I’m going to pass on Shared Property (Scat Daddy x Yoursmineours by Belong To Me). I’m not sure he wants to race on dirt even though he won first out at Ellis. That was maidens and these are Grade 3 horses. Throw in a three month layoff and I’m not interested in the Arlington-Washington Futurity winner. Tom Amoss trains and Leandro Goncalves is listed to ride.

Any number of horses could win here, but I’m going to go with Seven Lively Sins as my top pick. While I’ve got some reservations about how he will handle the distance, the price should be right and he is racing for top connections. The talent is there; we just have to hope the bottom is too. I’ll give a big look to Capetown Devil and Ted’s Folly as well. Look for Exfactor to run huge in his next race.

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On Fire Baby

The $100k Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park is the first of a series of Kentucky Derby preps that ultimately end with the $1 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. The relatively new race is now in its fifth year and has produced future Grade 1 winners like Flat Out and Caleb’s Posse.

Laurie’s Rocket (Bluegrass Cat x Clay’s Rocket by American Chance) was game to be second beaten a nose last out in the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds. He exited that race to fire a beautiful 1/142 four furlong bullet in :47 3/5 B at Fair Grounds. He’s got experience in tough races as he competed in the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes over the summer. He wasn’t quite good enough then, but things could have changed by now. Brian Hernandez looks to be sitting on a live horse at 8-1 from the rail.

Junebugred (Corinthian x Dixie Melody by Dixielandband) has moved to the barn of Steve Hobby after breaking his maiden at Aqueduct in late November. I’m not quite sure he is ready to tackle this group in his third start, but he’s clearly got some talent. Keep an eye on him for the future. Joe Bravo will ride the colt.

Trainer Tim Ice stated on Facebook that he is high on his entry, No Spin (Johannesburg x Dash For Money by General Meeting). The well bred colt broke his maiden at second asking over the synthetic surface of Arlington Park. He followed that effort up with a troubled fourth place finish in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. Since that effort he has faded in the Champagne Stakes, won an overnight turf stakes at Hawthorne and finished fourth in the Springboard Mile at Remington. Blinkers go on today and Channing Hill will ride for the first time. I cant get a good feel on him and I wont be surprised if he wins or runs in the middle of the pack.

The aptly named Fastestwhogetspaid (Henny Hughes x Talk Back by Talkin Man) looks live at a big price. The 15-1 shot broke his maiden against claimers at Hawthorne in his second start, but did so by 6 ½ lengths. After that he drew off against optional claiming company at the same track. He figures to be positioned in a good spot under Israel Ocampo and if he can improve just slightly then he can win this thing. Brian Williamson trains the Ontario-bred.

The morning line favorite, Optimizer (English Channel x Indy Pick by AP Indy), is clearly a better turf and synthetic horse. Still, I can’t blame them for trying this race. He finished a good fourth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last out with a very wide trip. Jockey Terry Thompson should be firing from the back of the pack again. The colt is working well and is one of the most accomplished in the race, but I’m going to pass at a short price.

Jake Mo (Giacomo x Credit Approval by With Approval) was in much too deep last out when finishing sixth in the Delta Jackpot. He tended the pace that day and all of the pacesetters backed up. Before that, he was fifth in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. The speedy colt is working well since the Jackpot and should be on or near the lead in this race. He’s got a shot with Michael Berry up for Allen Milligan.

Perhaps the most interesting entry in this race is Gary Hartlage’s filly On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken x Ornate by Gilded Time) who will take on the boys for the first time. She’s been given some rest since consecutive wins in the Pocahontas and Golden Rod Stakes. The talented lass has plenty of tactical speed and can fire from on or off the pace. She looks like something very special and I’ll make her my top selection to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at 7-2.

You can wager on On Fire Baby and all of the other great Martin Luther King Jr. Day racing at TVG. New players get a $100 sign up bonus. Join today!

Tapizar

The older horse scene is quite lacking in southern California. The fact that Uh Oh Bango was able to win the San Pasqual speaks volumes for the quality of horses racing on the left coast right now. A strong group of four-year-olds in the San Fernando could quickly change the picture though.

Prayer For Relief (Jump Start x Sparklin Lil by Mr Sparkles) faded last out in the Clark Handicap, his first try against older horses. Before that he put together Iowa Derby, West Virginia Derby and Super Derby wins against his own age group. He also produced a strong third place effort in the Oklahoma Derby. The cutback in distance will do wonders for him. He’s spent 50 days on the shelf and that shouldn’t hurt much, if at all. He’s going to sit a nice trip behind the speed under ace jockey Rafael Bejarano. If he’s good enough, he should run past them all.

Riveting Reason (Fusaichi Pegasus x Love and Marry by Known Fact) is without a win since breaking his maiden in 2010. His race patterns have been spotty too. Despite that, the colt has flashed great amounts of talent and is returning to a preferred surface in this spot. The works are strong and I am going to acknowledge him as a solid win contender. Alonso Quiononez gets the call for trainer Myong Kwon Cho.

Trainer Carla Gaines will send Irish Art (Artie Schiller x Irish Linnet by Seattle Song) out for his first start on dirt. The last time he raced was in the Sir Beaufort where he rallied for second behind a much the best Mr Commons. Turf to dirt is a very solid angle for this trainer who is 38% winners when doing so, but with a very limited sample. Joel Rosario will get the mount back from Rafael Bejarano.

Corey Nakatani is on the horse to beat, Tapizar (Tapit x Winning Call by Deputy Minister). The Steve Asmussen trainee exits the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile where he finished a rank fifth. Before that he cruised to an easy win in optional claiming company where he defeated very good horses in Uptowncharlybrown and Boys at Tosconova. I’m not wild about him because he is the likely favorite, but I’ll make him my top selection. He’s going to give them the slip.

You can bet Tapizar at  TVG where new accounts get a generous $100 sign up bonus.

Jackson Bend

Soaring Empire (Empire Maker x Flying Passage by AP Indy) is back to defend his title in the Hal’s Hope Stakes at Gulfstream Park where he owns a strong 5 2-2-0 record. The Cam Gambolati trainee hasn’t raced since winning a tough overnight stakes at Monmouth Park on July 31. He has fired well off the shelf before and is working like a champ. The Grade 3 winner looks ready to rock with Julien Leparoux in the irons.

Nick Zito’s Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil x Sexy Stockings by Tabasco Cat) should be sent off as a definitive favorite despite the fact that he will be racing against the speed bias of Gulfstream Park where he is without a win in four starts. The Forego Stakes winner was last seen rallying to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. His work pattern is strong and he looks ready to fire a big effort. It would be no surprise to see him win, but he’s probably not worth a bet at short odds.

I’m very intrigued by Will’s Wildcat (Eurosilver x Wildcat Lady by Forest Wildcat). The speedy gelding faded last out in the Clark Handicap where his connections were asking him to go further than he could. Before that he blasted a strong group in the Jimmy V Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup Friday under card. He’s been freshened up with 50 days off and could be ready to produce a career best effort. I like him to win the Hal’s Hope at a nice price with Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel in the irons.

He didn’t win a race in 2011, but Sangaree (Awesome Again x Mari’s Sheba) could be coming into a big effort. The Kiaran Mclaughlin trainee makes a class drop here and should be sitting in a good spot right behind the speed. If he brings his best race then he can take this field down.

You can wager on Will’s Wildcat to win the Hal’s Hope at TVG. You will get a wonderful price on him and a $100 sign up bonus for playing with TVG!