Flat Out

The 2012 Grade 1 Donn Handicap (Saturday|Race 10|Gulfstream) has attracted a deeply contentious field of 11 contenders. Notable recent winners include Quality Road in 2010, Invasor in 2007 and Saint Liam in 2005. This year’s winner could become a top contender for the world’s richest race; the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 31. There is a 50% chance of rain as of Saturday.

Where’s Sterling (Northern Afleet x Twinkler by Benny The Dip) will break from the rail after posting a very sharp gate breeze in 1:25 4/5 seconds for seven furlongs on January 25. The Nick Canani colt owns a strong record over the Gulfstream strip with two wins and two second place finishes from four starts. He hasn’t lost in two tries at the distance. Jose Lezcano gets the call to ride.

Todd Pletcher’s Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) has two decent races over this surface, but most of his best running has been done at Churchill Downs. I expect him to race too close to the pace under JJ Castellano. He will pay for that in the late stages of the Donn Handicap.

Last year’s Belmont Stakes winner, Ruler on Ice (Roman Ruler x Champagne Glow by Saratoga Six) hasn’t won in his last five trips to the track, but that could end here. The gelding has been freshened up and is working like he’s sitting on a big race. He fired three consecutive bullets at Palm Meadows prior to his last work, including five furlongs in :58 1/5 B. Anna Napravnik will get aboard for trainer Kelly Breen. This guys best race came over a sloppy track so the connections will likely be doing a race dance.

Dick Dutrow will send out two horses, the first of which is Redeemed (Include x Early Mass by Pleasant Tap). The versatile equine registered a powerful victory last out in the Grade 3 Discovery Stakes at Aqueduct. Before that he beat two top horses in the form of Alternation and Prayer For Relief while winning the Oklahoma Derby. Edgar Prado will ride the Jay Em Ess entry.

Cam Gambolati’s Soaring Empire (Empire Maker x Flying Passage by A.P. Indy) loves racing at Gulfstream. His best win came in last year’s Grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes. He was also second by a neck in last years Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes and Gulfstream Park Handicap. He was last seen getting tired in this year’s Hal’s Hope after making the lead at the top of the stretch. That was his first race since the end of July and it should have him good and ready to fire a big shot here. Julien Leparoux will pilot the closer.

Al Khali (Medaglia d’Oro x Maya by Capote) has raced primarily on the grass, but does own three wins on the dirt. Bill Mott has him cross entered in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. He hasn’t won since Hector was a pup and will have to contend with a four month layoff.

Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil by Cresta Rider) is one of the best older horses around when he’s on his game. He proved that last year with wins in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap and the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He failed as the favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Grade 1 Clark Handicap. I’m willing to forgive those efforts. He doesn’t like the track at Churchill Downs. I’m also going to throw out his last race on the turf where he finished dead last. He’s not a turf horse. The works since that race are strong and he moves back to a dirt route. That makes him deadly.

Trickmeister (Proud Citizen x Afternoon Trick by Afternoon Deelites) hasn’t lost or been challenged in five starts, but hasn’t faced a field even close to as good as this one yet. The Dutrow trainee will get to the front and take them as far as he can. I don’t expect that to be very far. Ramon Dominguez gets the call to ride as JJ Castellano chose to retain the mount on Mission Impazible.

Last year’s Preakness winner Shackleford (Forestry x Oatsee by Unbridled) almost went all the way to win last year’s Grade 1 Florida Derby, but was caught on the wire by Dialed In. I’ve got a feeling the layoff wont hurt him too much, but I’m just not sure he truly wants to go this far against horses of this quality. It wouldn’t shock or surprise to see him win, but I’m leaning against it. Jesus Castanon rides for Dale Romans.

Hymn Book (Arch x Vespers by Known Fact) charged down the lane to be second in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last out. It was a very good effort as To Honor And Serve wasn’t going to lose that day. His best race is good enough to win this thing. John Velazquez gets back up for Shug Mcgaughey.

He hasn’t won in a very long time, but Sangaree (Awesome Again x Mari’s Sheba by Mari’s Book) looked well last out to be second in the Hal’s Hope behind dominant winner Jackson Bend. If that race is any indication, he could be ready to move forward again at a big price. Rajiv Maragh will pilot this horse for Kiaran Mclaughlin.

My top selection to win the 2012 Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park is Ruler on Ice. I think the time off has done him well and it appears he is kicking the barn down. The gelding will get plenty of pace to chase and an off track will work to his advantage should one turn up. Key contenders include Flat Out, Soaring Empire and Redeemed.