Cradle Stakes (River Downs)
August 31, 2008
$200,000 Miller Lite Cradle Stakes (River Downs)
#1 Captain Bry (6-1)- Captured a minor stakes at Colonial Downs two races back, but regressed last out in an allowance at River Downs. The added distance seems to have contributed to his demise last out. Larry Melancon will make the trip to River Downs to pilot this colt. If this race was shorter I might like him, but I can’t endorse him after finishing nine lengths behind the winner last out, who is also entered in this race.
#2 Appalachian Trail (5-2)- Local jockey Cesar Ccamaque will retain the mount on this son of Monashee Mountain. After finishing second to Chilliness last out, the connections have opted to add lasix. I’m going to say it helped since he fired a nice :59 B five furlong move at Presque Isle Downs on August 24. He proved he can run on the turf, and distance shouldn’t be a question. Appalachian Trail is one of the two logical choices to knock off the favorite. Keep an eye out for this colt.
#3 Chilliness (4-1)- Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel will be in the irons today. Even Bo-rail would’ve been envious of the move Azeal De Leon made up the hedge on this undefeated son of Ecton Park to score a shocking upset at 55-1 last out. He has worked five furlongs in 1:04 B at Churchill Downs since that win. Bringing in Borel shows me their serious, and it would be no surprise to see this gelding in the winners circle again.
#4 Fitzaslew (7/5)- From the freshman sire Seattle Fitz, who won the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap, and finished second in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. Fitzaslew showed he ran run like his daddy when taking a maiden special weight event at Churchill Downs with relative ease. The second place finisher in that race came back to break his maiden, and then finish fifth in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. Trainer Ken McPeek won this race with Old Man Buck last year, and will have Perry Ouzts on this horse just as he had him on Buck. Make no mistake; this is Fitzaslew’s race to lose.
#5 Bourbon Bay (15-1)- Broke his maiden at Ellis Park last out, holding on to win by a head after stalking the pace under John McKee. He will have the services of Julio Felix for this event. The time for that race was very slow, and he doesn’t seem to be competitive on paper. I don’t like to cross any horse out of a race like this, but things don’t look good for him.
#6 Night Action (8-1)- Michael Maker and Victor Lebron hook up to bring this colt to the races. He finished third last out in an allowance event at River Downs after breaking his maiden at Ellis Park. A son of Action This Day, he will have to improve vastly to find himself in the winners circle in the Cradle Stakes.
#7 Just Like Biscuit (20-1)- Claimed his first victory at Ellis Park under Bonnie Castaneda last out. A son of Sligo Bay, this gelding has finished second to stakes runners Phosphorescent, and Medaglia D’onore. While he usually closes, he found himself much closer to the pace in his first win. I don’t see him winning, but he could find his way onto some exotic tickets at odds of 20-1 or better.
#8 Classic Bridges (30-1)- Lasix will be added for this son of Sky Classic who finished fourth in his lone start at Delaware Park. Local rider Otto Thorwarth will pick up the mount. He is somewhat of an x factor, but I wouldn’t count on a big run from this guy. He will have to step up big time to compete with these.
1st- Fitzaslew
2nd- Apalachain Trail
3rd- Chilliness
Plays:
$2 Trifecta (4/2,3,7/1,2,3,6,7,8)
$1 Superfecta (4/2,3,7/1,2,3,6,7/1,2,3,6,7,8)
First Defence Romps Home in the Forego
August 31, 2008
Yesterday was great for me handicapping wise. I gave out the winner in the Forego, First Defence. He ended up paying $17.60 to win. Like Bobby Frankel, I too was waiting for him to back up in the stretch. First Defence showed us how good he really is, and drew off to an easy win. I thought he could get it done because of the seven furlongs distance. If you look back to 2007 he ran second to Hard Spun in the Kings Bishop at seven furlongs. My pick was based largely on that and his recent form. First Defence’s next start will likely come in the Breeders Cup, according to trainer Bobby Frankel.
Like everyone else in the world, I also had Curlin. He made a big move heading for home, but seemed to flatten out a bit even though he went by for the win. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, he will be cranked up and ready to flatten the field in his next start. I’ll touch more on the subject of Curlin later this week. Make sure to check back later today for a full analysis of the Pennsylvania Derby, Del Mar Debutante, Hopeful and Cradle Stakes.
Grade 1 Forego
August 30, 2008
Grade 1 Forego (8/30/08)
#2 First Defence- This colt is a real fighter. It’s a rare occasion to see this colt finish far back. Whether he is stalking the pace or setting it, First Defence almost always shows up to race. He should love this seven furlong distance, and Bobby Frankel knows how to place horses. JJ Castelano has ridden this colt in every start of his career, but Channing Hill will be up for this event. You can certainly make a case for him to win this. First Defence is a must use on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#1 Forefathers- I’m glad Mott finally got a win under this colts belt. He did emphatically too, drawing off by six and a half lengths. He looks to be improving, and if I’m right he will run big. A switch from Desormeaux to Prado may benefit the colt. Fans of this colt will have to hope for fast fractions. He has to show that last race wasn’t a fluke, but I see good things in this colts future.
#3 Eternal Star- Having achieved five wins from six starts in minor stakes this year, Trombetta has brought this four year old colt to Saratoga to face the big boys. He has beat some nice horses, including Xchanger. Id definitely include this one of the bottom part of my trifectas and superfectas, but I don’t know if he is good enough to win here.
#4 Bold Start- Couldn’t get past Eternal Star last time out. This McPeek trainee looks nice, but I don’t think he is ready for Grade 1 competition yet. He may stumble in for fourth but I don’t see much more than that happening.
#5 Ferocious Fire- Has only lost once in nine starts facing exceptionally weaker horses. His last win isn’t as nice as it looks, since the race came off the turf. I’m going to toss this one.
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#1 Premium Wine- Claimed a victory in his third start since a layoff last time out. He showed a liking for this seven furlongs distance earlier in the year when he finished a close third in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap. I love his running style for this race, and he should right there late.
#6 Real Estate- Sired by son of Storm Cat, Yield. Blinkers really did the trick for this colt who is two for two since having them added. He has some vicious speed, setting a 21 4/5 and 44 3/5 quarter and half mile last time out. I really like this colts chances at 15-1. Be sure to include him on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#7 Lucky Island- Has dominated the New York sprint scene since arriving earlier this year. He has improved every time he has stepped on the track this year, and this is his race to lose. He will be hard to beat, but I’m going to try. Use this horse on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#8 Greeley’s Conquest- Winner of the Prarie Meadows Sprint isn’t nearly fast enough to hang with these. Don’t include him on your tickets.
#9 Tasteyville- Back to seven furlongs after another attempt at routing. Was second to Lucky Island in the Grade 2 Tom Fool. He may be able to grab third or fourth in this race, but I don’t see much more happening for this son of With Approval.
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1st- First Defence
2nd- Lucky Island
3rd- Forefathers
Plays:
$1 Trifecta (2,6,7/2,6,7/1,2,6,7,8)
$1 Superfecta (2,7/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7,9/1,2,6,7,9)
Woodward Stakes
August 29, 2008
Grade 1 Woodward Stakes 8/30/08
Curlin in the 2007 Breeders Cup Classic
#1 AP Arrow- Last years Clark Handicap winner hasn’t been the same since returning from Dubai. The jockey change from Ramon Dominguez to Cornelio Velasquez may help. This will be his third start since running a nice fourth in Dubai. If he can’t run well here, I think they will send him to the shed. Don’t use this horse on your exotic wagers.
#2 Loose Leaf- Ran a monster race last out on August 13, earning a 110 ESF. From the barn of Ken McPeek, that race was his first since 2007. If he can run back to that performance he will be a top contender here, but if he regresses you won’t see him. I suggest using this horse on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#3 Past The Point- Another colt who earned a huge figure last out. This son of Indian Charlie comes from the Darley barn, and trainer Eoin Harty. Edgar Prado will pilolt this one. He has flashed ability here and there, but this is quite an ambitious spot. I expect good things from this colt in the future, but I can’t endorse him here.
#4 Divine Park- I was so confident in this colt last time out in the Metropolitan Mile, I cashed for over $500. He will have some questions to answer in this race. The first one is can he go an extra furlong? I’m not sure that he can, but based on the fact that he was moving away from Commentator late last time out, he could. He has plenty of tactical speed, so Garcia lay wherever he pleases. While he is the most likely candidate to knock Curlin from the top spot, I don’t see it happening in this race. Include this horse in all exacta, trifecta, and superfectas.
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#5 Curlin- The 2007 Horse of the Year has returned to the dirt, after finishing second to 2006 Breeders Cup Turf winner Red Rocks. If all systems are go, Curlin should trample this field. He will show Big Brown and company why they don’t want to face him. Curlin is the king. Long live the king!
#6 Dr. D.F.C.- This New York bred would need a miracle to win here.
#7 Out of Control- Turf runner will try the dirt for the fourth time. He missed Dancing Forever by a nose last out, and has been running well all year. If his form transfers to the dirt, he will be in the mix. John Velazquez will pick up the mount. I would use this horse to round out a trifecta or superfecta but I’m having a hard time making a case for him.
#8 Wanderin Boy- Speedball looks to be lone speed in this race. He finished far back in this race last year after setting grueling fractions. Prior that race last year he was second in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap. He fired a bullet four furlong move in 47 1/5 H, which was 1/30. A must use due to his speed, expect to see Wanderin Boy in the mix.
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1st- Curlin
2nd- Divine Park
3rd- Wanderin Boy
Plays:
$2 Trifecta (5/4,8/2,3,4,7,8)
$1 Superfecta (5/2,4,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,7,8)
Grade 1 Pacific Classic
August 24, 2008
Grade 1 Pacific Classic 8/24/08
#1 Awesome Gem- Second in this race last year, this deep closer hasn’t had much luck in 2008. This race catapulted him to a third place finish in the Breeders Cup Classic last year. The pace is there if he can run, but I think this gelding has seen better days. I don’t encourage using him on top in your exotics, but perhaps rounding out a trifecta or superfecta ticket with this old warrior.
#2 Mostacolli Mort- Finished a hard charging third behind Well Armed and Surf Cat last out in the San Diego Handicap. This gelding ran a great race last out, but I need to see another one like that to believe he is for real. I can’t use him here.
#3 Zappa- Won by seven lengths last out in the Cougar II Handicap after toying with a field that included Big Booster. Alan Garcia will be piloting this one for the first time for trainer John Sadler. I wouldn’t use Zappa if he hadn’t ran such a huge race last out, but I have to throw him in on trifecta and superfecta tickets.
#4 Surf Cat- What an amazing horse this is, having only been off the board twice in twenty starts. Surf Cat fired a bullet five furlong work in :57 3/5 on August 19. While he won’t be my top pick, this son of Sir Cat looks primed for a huge run. Handicappers love this type of horse.
#5 Barcola- This horse will probably lead to the stretch and spit the bit. He doesn’t have the class to run with these. Don’t include Barcola on any of your tickets.
#6 Go Between- Couldn’t catch Mast Track last out in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Go Between is a son of Point Given. He hasn’t won since the SunShine Millions Classic and he looks due for a big run. The pace will be there for this closer, but he is going to have to do the rest of the work. While he isn’t my top selection, you must take Go Between seriously. Include him on all quinella, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#7 Well Armed- Eoin Harty and Aaron Gryder have had a ton of success with this speedball. Third two back in the Dubai World Cup, he returned to wire the field in the San Diego Handicap. Distance is no question because of his performance in the Dubai World Cup. You have to love this son of Tiznow, especially at the great price of 10-1. He will be my top selection.
#8 Mast Track- The winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup will have Bejarano in the irons. He was lone speed in that race and that was the driving factor behind his win. While he is certainly talented and capable, he will need to resort to a stalking style here. I don’t like him to pull off two wins in a row but I would use him on my trifecta, and superfecta tickets when I am betting horses for this race.
#9 Delosvientos- Let me begin by saying that no horse who has won three races in a row the way this one has should be 30-1. He earned a monstrous ESF of 114 last out while winning Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap. Delosvientos will have the services of chilly Joel Rosario. I’m not wild about this ones chances but I will use him simply because of his price.
#10 Student Council- My grandpa loves to bet horses who won the same race the previous year. “How quickly they forget” he would tell me. If you subscribe to that statement, then Student Council is the horse for you. He is now under control of the lethal combination of Steve Asmussen and Shaun Bridgmahon. This horse can certainly get it done at 7/2. He is a must use on all quinella, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.
#11 McCann’s Mojave- An old warrior, this horse was fourth last out in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Prior to that he won a Grade 3. I believe this field is too tough for him. Don’t include him on any tickets.
1st- Well Armed (10-1)
2nd- Student Council (7/2)
3rd- Surf Cat (6-1)
Plays:
$2 Exacta (4,6,7,10 BOX)
$2 Trifecta (6,7,10/4,6,7,10/4,6,7,8,9,10)
$2 Superfecta (7,10/4,6,7,10/4,6,7,10/1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10)
King’s Bishop
August 23, 2008
Grade 1 Kings Bishop (8/23/08)
Click here to read the Gradedstakes.com Travers report!
#1 Kodiak Kowboy- This colt is one for one with the connections of Gabriel Saez and Larry Jones, posting a monstrous Beyer of 108 last time out. In that race he held off Desert Key by just a head. You can definitely make a case for this son of Posse.
#1 Lantana Mob- Just like his entry mate, Lantana Mob is a son of Posse. He should be rolling late, but he will need some deathly fractions to win this. I can’t advise you against betting this one so long as your still getting Kodiak Kowboy with him.
#2 Desert Key- Nearly wired the field last out in the Grade 2 Amsterdam before relenting to Kodiak Kowboy to finish second by a head. He also earned a 108 Beyer for that race. Trainer Allen Jerkens has been great for horse betting because of his ability to win with a price horse. Although I haven’t looked at the ML this colt shouldn’t be any more than 5-1 by my estimation. He is in with a shot.
#3 Gentleman James- Finished second last out in a Grade 2 at Calder after letting the flag fall on the lead. While he wouldn’t be a surprise I’m going to look elsewhere.
#4 Nautical Storm- I wonder if Lukas knows how desperate it makes him look when he enters colts like this in big races? With just a maiden win that wasn’t overly impressive this colt will need a miracle to win.
#5 Visionaire- Claimed his first win at a sprint distance in an optional claimer last out, against a field of older horses that was quite tough. Matz wouldn’t have him in here if he wouldn’t be contentious. You have to use this colt.
#6 Silver Edition- Finished far back against Desert Key and Kodiak Kowboy last out. I wouldn’t bet this colt to win, but I might use him to round out a superfecta ticket.
#7 Golden Spikes- Prevailed over Gentleman James last out in the Grade 2 Carryback. He is coming off consecutive stakes win, and looks primed for a big run. I suggest using this colt on all of your exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets. Watch out for Golden Spikes.
#8 J Be K- This colt is likely to win the race. The only two defeats in his career were to Pyro and Harlem Rocker, both who are in the Travers. While he is not bulletproof he is surely the horse to beat. He is a must use on your exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets when your betting horses for this race. I would suggest a win bet if you like him, at odds of 3-1 or better.
#9 Salute The Sarge- Nick, you know I’m your biggest fan, but I can’t endorse this colt based off his recent form. Nonetheless, I will be rooting for you. Good luck Southern Equine!
#10 I’m So Lucky- This colt has reeled off three consecutive wins with Robby Albarado in the irons. I don’t like this ones chances of winning, but he could find his way onto a trifecta, or superfecta ticket.
1st- Kodiak Kowboy
2nd- J Be K
3rd- Vissionaire
Plays:
$2 Exacta: (1,8/1,2,5,7,8)
$2 Trifecta: (1,8/1,2,5,8/1,2,5,7,8)
$0.10 Superfecta (1,8/1,2,5,7,8/1,2,3,5,6,7,8/1,2,3,5,6,7,8)
Race Of The Week: Travers
August 21, 2008
The latest edition of Race Of The Week has been posted. This week I’ll take an in depth look at the Travers. This includes a look at each horse in the race, along with wagering strategies. Click “Race Of The Week” on the red toolbar, or here to check it out!
Personal Ensign Stakes
August 20, 2008
Personal Ensign (Grade 1) 8/22/08
#1 Ginger Punch (4-5)- Robert Frankel and Rafael Bejarano hook up to bring this defending Champion Older Female to the track. Her only loss this year came to the undefeated Zenyatta. She has been a heavy favorite in every race she has competed in this year. Her wins this year include the Apple Blossom Handicap, Ogden Phipps Handicap, and the Go For Wand Handicap, all Grade 1 events. If any of these fillies and mares want to win, they are going to have to go through Ginger Punch.
#1A Spring Waltz (4-5)- This is Robert Frankel’s other entry, and he will have his regular jock, Javier Castellano in the irons. She was a dull fourth last out in the Delaware Handicap. I can’t say for sure why she ran poorly, but my guess is she didn’t like the track. If you put a line through that race, she doesn’t look too bad in this spot. I think she will rebound with a nice on the board finish.
#2 So Glitzy (20-1)- Allen Jerkens and Cornelio Velasquez will bring this filly to the track for her first graded stakes attempt. This is a very ambitious spot for her. She defeated Hamsa by a nose last out in an optional claimer. Grade 2 winner Mushka was third in that race which was her first start of 2008. Her best hope for this race is a minor award.
#3 Lemon Drop Mom (12-1)- Tim Ritchey and Caraballo J C bring this filly to the races. She finished second last out in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap, after attempting to go wire to wire. It appears that she relished the extra distance. She was the beneficiary of a slow pace last out, and she wont be as fortunate this time around with Ginger Punch in the field. This is a puzzling filly. I don’t think she can win this, but I wont be shocked if she hits the board.
#4 Indescribable (12-1)- Bill Mott and Kent Desormeaux bring this filly back for another Grade 1 attempt. She was the victim of an awful trip last out in the Grade1 Go For Wand, and was still making up ground late to finish third. I expect her to run much better today for several reasons. For one, the pace will be much faster which will help her because she is a closer. Also, I don’t expect her to encounter nearly as much trouble in this spot. My final reason is the added distance. She has won going away at 9 furlongs, so 10 furlongs should be even better for her. Look for her to run second, with an outside shot at the win.
#5 Unbridled Belle (9-5)- Todd Pletcher and Ramon Dominguez will saddle this filly. She couldn’t catch Hystericalady and Lemon Drop Mom last out in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap. It was her second race since a layoff so we can forgive that performance. She was second in this race last year. While I’m not wild about her chances, the ability is certainly there. Don’t be surprised if this mare runs a huge race.
#6 Golden Velvet (8-1)- Kiaran McLaughlin and Eibar Coa saddled this filly to a distant second place finish behind Ginger Punch last out in the Ogden Phipps Handicap. She doesn’t look good enough to win this, but with a bit of luck she might be able to pick up third.
1st- Ginger Punch (4-5)
2nd- Indescribable (12-1)
3rd-Unbridled Belle (9-5)
Plays:
$1 Trifecta: (1/4,5/3,4,5,6)
$1 Superfecta: (1/4,5/3,4,5/3,4,5,6)
Ballston Spa Handicap
August 19, 2008
Ballston Spa Handicap (Grade 2)
#1 Wait A While- Todd Pletcher and Garrett Gomez won this race with this magnificent mare last year. She has two wins from two starts at the distance. Her win in last years Ballston Handicap began a streak of four consecutive 100+ ESF’s. Look for her to stalk the early pace and pounce at the ¾ pole as the 8/5 morning line favorite.
#2 Valbenny- Grade 2 winning filly hasn’t returned to her top form in her two starts in 2008. The distance shouldn’t be a problem for her. I don’t think she will contend for the win, but she may be able to run third, and perhaps second.
#3 Sharp Susan- The lethal combination of Kent Desormeaux and Bill Mott will hook up for this filly. Sharp Susan is owned by IEAH. She was moving away from Valbenny when winning last out after overcoming a poor trip. She seems to be on the improve. While the win is not out of the question, I think she is more likely to run second.
#4 Rutherienne- The French connections of Christophe Clement and Julien Leparoux will bring this filly to the track. She is optimal at this distance of 8.5 furlongs, but has been running at the 9 furlong distance of late. I don’t think she has enough early speed to stay with the eventual winner, but she should be able to pick up third.
#5 Carriage Trial- Edgar Prado and Claude McGaughey saddle this filly for an attempt at her first Grade 2 victory. She hit the board in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff last year, so I don’t know why they haven’t continued to sprint her. She is going to have to stay close early to have a shot at contention in this one.
1st- Wait A While (8/5)
2nd- Sharp Susan (3-1)
3rd- Rutherienne (2-1)
Plays:
$25 WIN on Wait A WHILE
Sunday Selections
July 26, 2008
Street Boss is poised for a chance at the Breeders Cup Sprint!
I’d say my selections were pretty damn good Saturday. Commentator got home for me, and I gave out a $1 trifecta in that race worth $312. I also had the winner in the Vanderbilt, and I gave out the trifecta which was worth $67.50. I hope you played it, because unfortunately I did not. Lets take a look at the races for Sunday and see if we can keep this momentum going.
Jim Dandy (Grade 2)
I don’t like morning line favorite Pyro in this spot. I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but he has NEVER won past a 1 1/16. I will look to Wood Memorial winner, Tale of Ekati to get the job done. He should lay close to the speed and make a move late at odds of 10-1. I also like Mint Lane to hold on for a piece.
1st- Tale of Ekati (10-1)
2nd- Mint Lane (5-2)
3rd- Macho Again (10-1)
WIN on TALE OF EKATI
$1 Trifecta (3,5/3,5,7/ALL)
$1 Superfecta (3,5/3,5/1,4,7,8/1,4,7,8)
Bing Crosby (Grade 1)
Its hard to go against morning line favorite Street Boss in this race. He has been bulletproof lately, and I believe he will be a top contender for the Breeders Cup Sprint. “The Boss” will roll late and flatten this field. In Summation should also be moving late. He is clearly the second best horse in the race on paper. Any number of horses could pick up third. Given the odds, I wouldn’t stick too much money in your exotic wagers. I encourage you to bet Street Boss to win if you can get his morning line odds of 9/5.
1st- Street Boss (9/5)
2nd- In Summation (7/2)
3rd- Jungle Prince (15-1)
WIN on STREET BOSS
$1 Trifecta (1/4/2,3,5,7,9)