Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Preview
October 16, 2008
The second running of the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint will be much better than the last. Last years winner, Maryfield, has since been retired, but runner up Miraculous Miss will seek to take the top prize this time around. Indian Blessing, winner of the 2007 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies is also entered. The lightly raced Zaftig will also seek to add this win to her resume which includes only six races, this one included. Ventura finished second in the Woodbine Mile against the boys last out, and will also vie for the title in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.
As can be expected in just about any sprint race, this event is loaded with speed. There is no telling who
will get the lead, but you can expect to see Dearest Tricksi, Dream Rush, and Indyanne all on front end. A speed duel will almost undoubtedly take place. If I had to guess who will come out on top, I would take Dream Rush based off of her 43 2/5 half mile fraction last in the Presque Isle Downs Masters. I expect all three of these fillies to fade.
Indian Blessing should be making her move midway through the race. Her move is different than 90% of horses out there. It is a monstrous kick for home, and has only failed her twice in ten starts. When she strikes the lead she will have the task of holding off Zaftig, something she wasn’t able to do earlier this year. Zaftig moved by ‘Blessing like she was standing still in that race, drawing off by 4 lengths even though her jockey lost the whip. This will be her first race since that win, and if she runs anything like she did that day there is no beating her.
Ventura will likely be in the mix late. Her only start on a synthetic surface resulted in a powerful victory as she charged home seven wide to take the Grade 2 Madison at Keeneland. Intangaroo is another viable choice. She hasn’t been met with much fanfare, but the daughter of Orientate has won four Grade 1 races this year. Her best win came last out in the Grade 1 Ballinera where she ran six wide and ended up winning by two lengths.
My top pick is going to be Zaftig. I love her pedigree, Gone West is one of the best sire of sprinters. The distance suits her well. Two of her three wins came at this seven furlongs distance, and the other came at eight furlongs. Her closing style should be beneficial as the race has tons of speed. As I previously stated, if her last race is any indication she should wipe this field out. I’ll look to Indian Blessing to finish second. She has been even more lethal since learning to rate. Ventura also looks tough. She has been great this year, and her trainer Bobby Frankel makes her all the more dangerous. I’m confident one of these three fillies will take the top prize in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
Breeders Cup Turf Sprint Preview
October 9, 2008
The inaugural running of the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint is shaping up to be quite the race. It will be contested at 6 ½ furlongs on the turf, for three-year-olds and up, with a purse of $1,000,000. The race will take place at Santa Anita for the next two years, which will make the race different due to their downhill turf course. Due to this I will likely give preference to west coast runners, and horses who have proved they can run well over the surface. Lets take a look at the field, and I’ll tell you who I think can win. Remember, these are only early thoughts, until I see the past performances I can’t make any concrete selections.
Mr. Nightlinger is the probable favorite. He has won five in a row, including the Grade 3 Shakertown at Keeneland, and the Grade 3 Aegon Turf Sprint at Churchill Downs. Trained by Brett Calhoun, and ridden by James Theriot his most recent win came in the $200k Arlington Sprint Handicap on August 23. Mr. Nightlinger has dazzling early speed, and was in front in the blink of an eye in his latest race. He can handle early pace pressure, and will be tough to put away on the front end.
His best competition will most likely come from the Scott Lake trained and Ken Carmouche ridden True To Tradition. A winner of two in a row, his latest victory was in the Grade 2 Nearartic Stakes at Woodbine. Prior to that he won the Turf Monster Handicap at Philadelphia Park. While he likes to race on the front, he has proved he can rate. He will probably need to do so in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint.
The lethal combination of Brian Koriner and Joseph Talamo will saddle California Flag for the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. He has plenty of experience at Santa Anita, breaking his maiden there and winning the Grade 3 Morvich Handicap there in his most recent start. He won that race easily by four lengths in wire to wire fashion. I love the fact that he has a win over the surface, and an impressive one for that matter. I won’t claim to know a ton about the horse, but the connections alone are enough for me to give him some consideration.
First Defence qualifies for the race, but I don’t know if he will start. I think Robert Frankel would be making a great decision to race him in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. Although he won the Forego by 6 lengths, he proved in the Vosburgh he doesn’t quite match up with the top sprinters. He has several wins on the turf, including the Grade 3 Jaipur this year.
Word on the internet is that Diabolical may be shipping back to the United States for the race. Diabolical was a top sprinter last year before being sold to Sheikh Mohammed to race in the Dubai International Carnival, and ultimately the Dubai Goldeen Shaheen. He finished second in the Grade 2 Diadem Stakes at Ascot, missing the winner by a neck in his last start. His sire, Artax, was a top sprinter in his day, winning the Breeders Cup Sprint, Vosburgh, and Carter Handicap, all Grade 1 events. Diabolical’s best win came in the Grade 2 Vanderbilt Handicap. I expect him to make a big impact on the race if he ships from across the pond.
I can’t make a clear choice without seeing past performances, but Diabolical will be my top choice if he races. I love his breeding and his form has been sharp lately. He was dominant here before leaving the United States. I also like First Defence. He is very tough on the front end, and can also rate if he is forced to. He has been racing exceptionally well minus his last start in the Vosburgh, which was loaded with speed. Good luck, and check back once the official entries are in for more information.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Preview
October 7, 2008
This years Breeders Cup Juvenile won’t include some of the best of the best 2-year-olds in the country. Vineyard Haven is doubtful for the race after winning the Grade 1 Champagne. Trainer and majority owner, Robert Frankel has stated that he does not wish to pay the supplemental fee of $150,000+ to start. Charitable Man, winner of the Grade 2 Futurity is also out due to a saucer fracture in his left shin. These colts will leave a void, but the field will nonetheless contain capable runners.
Square Eddie scored an easy victory in the Grade 1 Lanes End Breeders Futurity with jockey Rafael Bejarano in the irons. The son of Smart Strike was making his first start in the United States for owner J. Paul Reddam, who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile with Wilko in 2004. Doug O’Neill will be the new trainer, and has said the colt looks like a “Baby Curlin”.
Stalking the pace from two lengths back, Square Eddie struck the lead four wide as they hit the stretch. He then proceeded to draw off, winning by 5 lengths. The winning time of 1:43.04 for the one mile and sixteenth distance was over two seconds faster than last years winner, Wicked Style. The connections have indicated their intent on racing in the Breeders Cup, and their colt will be one of the top choices.
From the sire City Zip, the undefeated Run Away And Hide will also give the Breeders Cup a shot. A perfect 3 for 3, his latest victory came in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, where he slipped up the rail to win by 2 lengths over Break Water Edison. Trainer Ronny Werner is an expert with two-year-olds and should have colt ready to go, despite an injury that prevented him from starting in the Grade 1 Lanes End Breeders Futurity.
Street Hero will also garner plenty of support. From the leading sire Street Cry, he broke his maiden last out in the Grade 1 Norfolk at Santa Anita. Jockey Alex Solis said he must’ve been stopped at least ten times. Street Hero gained that win after the addition of blinkers, and prior to a third place finish in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. Midshipman who beat Street Hero in the Del Mar Futurity, but was bested in the Norfolk will also race in the Breeders Cup Juvenile according to trainer Bob Baffert.
Thoughts On Commentator
September 23, 2008
I’ve just read that Nick Zito isn’t sure whether or not he will race multiple Grade 1 winner Commentator in the Breeders Cup Classic. His reasoning, like many other trainers, is the synthetic surface at Santa Anita Park. Commentator was injured while training on the Polytrack at Keeneland in 2006. Zito says he would rather race Commentator at Belmont on Breeders Cup day.
Personally, I hope he reconsiders. Commentator has been better than ever this year. He would likely be one of the top choices in the Breeders Cup Classic after winning the Massachusetts Handicap by a staggering 14 lengths. Winning the Breeders Cup Classic would place a powerful exclamation point on Commentators best year. He would also be the number one candidate for Horse of the Year.
Due to his early speed, Commentator is always in the race. Although he proved he could rate in the Massachusetts Handicap, I would prefer to see the old Commentator “wire-to-wire” style in the Breeders Cup, if he does indeed race. I really hope that Zito changes his mind, at 7 years old, Commentator wont ever be this good ever again.
Tiznow: America’s Horse
September 18, 2008
Back to back winner of the Breeders Cup Classic, Tiznow.
Its hard to believe that seven years have passed since the terrorist attacks on September 11. While watching a memorial for the victims (God rest their souls) last week I was feeling a bit more patriotic than usual, so I decided to think of a horse who exemplifies patriotism. One horse instantly came to mind-Tiznow, America’s horse.
Tiznow is from the sire Cees’ Tizzy, and out of the mare Cee’s Song. While he doesn’t have the best pedigree, Tiznow has some capable runners in his family. Included in his family are Triple Crown winner, Seattle Slew, and Kentucky Derby winner, Northern Dancer. Tizna, on the Cees’ Tizzy side, was a multiple Grade 1 winning mare.
Some of his most notable wins include the Santa Anita Handicap, Affirmed Handicap, Super Derby, and the Goodwood Breeders’ Cup Handicap. He won’t be remembered for any of those wins. Tiznow will go down in history for being the only colt to win the Breeders Cup Classic-twice.
His first Classic win came as a 3-year-old against Kentucky Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus, Belmont Stakes winner, Lemon Drop Kid, and last years Breeders Cup Classic winner, Cat Thief. Despite the long resumes of the previously listed horses, the presence of the Irish “Iron Horse” Giant’s Causeway was the most daunting.
Throughout his career, Giants Causeway won 9 of 14 races, and when he didn’t win he finished second. His wins included the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes, Group 1 Eclipse Stakes, and the Group 1 Sussex Stakes. Before racing in the Breeders Cup Classic, he had won 5 consecutive Group 1 races.
With Chris McCarron in the irons, Tiznow was on or near the lead the entire way in the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic. Having put pacesetter Albert The Great away near the top of the stretch, Tiznow kicked home. He looked to be all alone, until Giants Causeway came with a furious run down the lane. Neck and neck down the stretch, Tiznow prevailed with a late surge.
En route to winning his second Breeders Cup Classic, Tiznow had to defend his title against another European invader, Sakhee. This colt would prove even more salty than Giants Causeway. Sakhee was a winner of the the Group 1 International Stakes by 7 lengths. He was also the dominating victor in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. He was clearly the best Europe had to offer.
Tiznow would rate in third in the 2001 Breeders Cup Classic, while Albert The Great would set the pace yet again. When they hit the stretch, Tiznow looked like a beaten horse as Sakhee powered home down the lane. In between horses, Tiznow hadn’t given up yet. Although being passed in the stretch, Tiznow battled back to win by a nose. Tom Durkin called out “Tiznow wins it for AMERICA!” after the race was over.
Tiznow defended what is arguably America’s best race against foreign invaders not once, but twice. He has more heart than just about any horse I can think of. He has been a smashing success at stud so far, producing Travers winner Colonel John, and Belmont Stakes winner, Da’ Tara. Tiznow will always be remembered as America’s Horse.
Take Your Time!
September 8, 2008
This weekend was pretty good for me as a handicapper. I started the weekend with a deposit of $150, and ended up withdrawing $205, after my balance went as high as $400. Despite the success I had, one glaring mistakes cost me hundreds of dollars. I’ll give you an overview, and hopefully you can learn from my stupidity.
The mistake was a result of rushing, and trying to handicap too fast. After seeing that Indian Blessing had been scratched from the Ruffian Handicap, I thought this left the race ripe for Little Belle’s picking. Believing I could turn a quick and easy profit in this race, I played my trifecta and set up a couple of Pick 3’s. If I was taking my time, and handicapping thoughtfully, I would have realized that Bob Baffert, the trainer of Indian Blessing, also had Tough Tiz’s Sis in the race. She had recently finished second behind the undefeated Zenyatta.
The race commenced, and Little Belle nor my second choice, Spring Waltz were anywhere to be found. Tough Tiz’s Sis won the race emphatically. She went off at a great price of 4-1, and had I included her on top, I would’ve had the trifecta which paid $299. Whats more, I didn’t use her on my Pick 3. This costly mistake could’ve been avoided if only I had taken my time. So remember, don’t rush and let things come to you.
Why Big Brown Will Beat Curlin
September 2, 2008
Big Bad Brown
It looks as if the highly anticipated Curlin vs. Big Brown match up will take place in the Breeders Cup Classic. While the Classic has been the goal for IEAH and Big Brown all along, Curlin and company have only recently given a title defense some serious thought. Many of the friends at the track, and fellow bloggers believe Curlin would deliver quite a thrashing to Big Brown. I’m not so sure. Allow me to explain.
Both horses were dull last time out. Big Brown ran down Coal Play in the late stages of the Haskell, but should’ve won but quite a bit more than he did. Curlin was also a step slow winning the Woodward. The horse he beat was better than his odds would have led you to believe at 40-1, but Curlin still should’ve demolished him.
I can find an excuse for Big Brown, but not for Curlin, the reigning horse of the year. Big Brown was recovering from a grueling Triple Crown campaign and had every reason to give it up, but he dug deep and swept past Coal Play. You can expect him to come back even stronger next time.
Like the champion that he is, Curlin won the Woodward after some urging from Albarado. Unlike Big Brown, he didn’t have a reason not to blast past the colt. Perhaps he just had a bad race, but I think this could be the beginning of the end for Curlin. He doesn’t have the bulletproof aura that he had earlier this year, and he is vulnerable.
I found his loss to Breeders Cup Turf winner Red Rocks discouraging. Although Red Rocks is a good horse, he is nothing compared to the top turf runners in Europe. Why does this matter? Curlin was being considered for the Arc. If he couldn’t beat Red Rocks, he would’ve been destroyed in Europe.
Big Brown has every reason to improve and surpass Curlin. Lets not forget this is a colt who won the Kentucky Derby easy after going wide the entire trip. He won the Preakness with ease, before being taken out of his element in the Belmont and suffering his first defeat. If he was this good so early in the year, and as lightly raced as he is, how good will he be come time for the Classic?
One the greatest advantages Big Brown holds over Curlin is his tactical speed. Desormeaux can place Big Brown wherever he likes, while Curlin is traditionally a closer. Traffic can arise at any moment, and Curlin is more susceptible. Another, even greater advantage Big Brown holds over Curlin is his heart. While Curlin is no quitter, and has a great heart of his own, Big Brown is more determined. Curlin relented to a filly in the Belmont. Big Brown could’ve just quit in the Haskell, but he bore down and won the race. You can only attribute that to his will to win.
In closing, please don’t mistake my respect for Curlin. I bet him heavily in last years Classic as the fourth choice, and I have always thought him to be one of the greatest horses of all time. He is even featured as the third horse in my banner, because he is one of my favorite horses. His legacy speaks for itself. This race will be one for the ages if it takes place. It is my hope that both of these magnificent colts will be neck and neck down the stretch. While I believe Big Brown will come out on top, I hope the best colt wins- Curlin or Big Brown.
Racebook Reviews
August 28, 2008
I’ve compiled a comprehensive review of some of the best racebooks on the internet. I think you will really enjoy it. Click here, or “Racebook Reviews” on the red toolbar to check it out!
Superfecta
August 28, 2008
Being the super handicapper that I am, I like to play a wager called the superfecta. If you’re a veteran of the racetrack you’ve surely heard of the wager, but if not allow me to explain. The superfecta is a wager in which you must correctly select the first four finishers of a horse race. If you can hit it, the superfecta almost always pays well. I’ve seen the superfecta wager pay over $100,000. Just like the exacta, and trifeca wager, there are various types of superfectas. Lets take a look!
Straight Superfecta- This is probably one of the hardest things to do in handicapping. Its hard enough to pick a winner, but figuring out who will finish second, third, and fourth exactly is quite a task. An example of a straight superfecta would be playing a 3-4-7-1 in a given horse race. The horses would have to finish in that exact order for you to win.
Superfecta Box- Just like an exacta, and trifecta, you can box the superfecta. Box means that all of the horses you use can finish in any of the spots for your wager. Since the superfecta requires atleast four horses, you must box atleast four horses, but you may box as many as you like. For example, you could box horses 1,3,4,5,7 and for you to win any combination of those horses would have to finish 1-4.
Superfecta Wheel- To wheel means to use everyone in the race. Lets say you like Colonel John’s chances of winning the Travers, but your not quite sure who will run second, third, and fourth. You could use Colonel John first, and wheel the field second, third and fourth. While this will cost a lot of money, it could pay dividends if a long shot can run in the money.
Superfecta Part Wheel- So your pretty sure Colonel John will win, but you also know Mambo In Seattle is improving. If you play a part wheel you can use both of those horses first, and include or leave out any of the other horses in the race first, second, third, and fourth.
Feel free to email me at ryanthethird [at] gmail.com if you have any further questions.
Trifecta
August 27, 2008
Three is company, and three is also the number of horses you must correctly select in order to win a trifecta when betting horses. Trifecta’s are much harder to hit, so they pay off at much better odds. I’ve seen a trifecta pay anywhere from $15 to over $30,000. If you have a good feeling about two or three horses in a race you can capitalize heavily from playing the trifecta. Lets take a look at the varying types of trifecta wagers.
Straight Trifecta- This wager is “cold” which means you will have only one selection in each spot. For example, I selected the trifecta in the Bing Crosby straight. My selection was 1-4-3 which came in exactly as I thought it would. Lets take a look at a hypothetical situation. 12 horses will be competing in a race. You believe that horse 7 will win, horse 1 will run second, and horse 12 will finish third. Using these three numbers you would play a 7-1-12 straight trifecta.
Trifecta Box- If you box your wager, any of the horses you use can finish first, second, or third. You can box as many horses as you want, but must use at least three for a trifecta. There is no limit to how many horses you box. For example, if you liked Big Brown, Eight Belles, Denis of Cork, and Tale of Ekati in the Kentucky Derby, you could have boxed them in the trifecta. This would have allowed any of the four to finish in any of the top three spots.
Trifecta Wheel- This is an expensive wager, but can pay off handsomely if you can get a long shot. If you wish to wheel a trifecta, you take everybody in one or more of the three spots. You can wheel a horse first, second or third.
Trifecta Part Wheel- If you are able to narrow your choices down, then you want to play a trifecta part wheel. This wager allows you to throw out some horses, thus saving money. For example, you could have played a trifecta part wheel of Colonel John, Mambo In Seattle over Colonel John, Mambo In Seattle and Pyro over Colonel John, Mambo In Seattle and Pyro in the Travers.