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Betting the Preakness online

May 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment

TwinSpires.com

Looking for a place to bet the Preakness?  Twinspires.com has you covered with a $100 sign up bonus. The U.S. owned company is 100% secure and safe. Online horse betting is one the best ways to play the Triple Crown. Below are a few of the great features you will find with  Twinspires.com.

  • First and foremost, new wagering accounts get a $100 sign bonus. That money is great for betting the Preakness!
  • Free past performances for every track you play. This is an invaluable asset as the cost of PPs can become staggering over the long haul.
  • Free race replays; these are great handicapping tools. While the form is wonderful, there is nothing like watching a race with your own eyes.
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  • Real-time racing information including, odds, will-pays, program changes, and track conditions.
  • Twinspires Mobile site allows for easy betting access via iPhone, BlackBerry or any mobile device!

I know where I’m betting the 2012 Preakness Stakes; Twinspires.com. You should too! Just click the banner above or any of the 3 links in this post to claim your $100 sign up bonus!

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2012 Preakness Stakes preview, picks & analysis

May 17, 2012 By 1 Comment
2012 Preakness Stakes

2012 Preakness Stakes

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The 2012 Preakness Stakes from Pimlico Race Course is a grudge match of sorts. Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another will seek to stay on a roll as he tries to advance to the Belmont Stakes with a shot at wearing the seemingly unattainable Triple Crown. Meanwhile, Bodemeister, who tired late to be second after setting a furious pace at Churchill Downs, will try to turn the tables on I’ll Have Another. Neither horse is my selection to win.

Tiger Walk  (Tale of the Cat x Majestic Trail by Kris S.) 30-1: This one was last seen passing tired horses in the stretch of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial to be fourth. Since then he has posted a sharp  four furlong move in :47 3/5 B over this track. Trainer Ignacio Correas will add blinkers for the first time as Kent Desormeaux gets the call to ride. The Hall of Fame rider won this race in 1998 with Real Quiet and 2008 with Big Brown, both of whom were much more horse than this one. Will need something strange to happen for him to win.

Teeth of the Dog (Bluegrass Cat x Deputy Reality by Deputy Minister) 15-1: I will catch a lot of heat for this statement, but he could be Michael Matz best three-year-old. The inexperienced horse rallied to be third at 53-1 in the Wood Memorial when last seen and before that was a maiden winner at Gulfstream. His routing ability is confirmed and his speed figures have improved with every race. This event figures to have soft fractions, so it is imperative that jockey Joe Bravo keeps him near the front. Clearly, this one is the best of the long shot contingent and the bay colt possesses a true chance of becoming the next Preakness winner.

Pretension (Bluegrass Cat x Main Streetin’ by Street Cry) 30-1: Won by a neck in the Canonero II Stakes against four other rivals over this track last out. He isn’t fast enough to win the Preakness, but he does have enough early zip to impact the pace. Backers of other horses will have to hope that Javier Santiago sends him to the front early on to ensure an honest pace. Christopher Grove is the trainer.

Zetterholm (Silver Train x Holy Wish by Lord at War) 30-1: NY-bred turned into a different animal after being sent to the barn of Rick Dutrow (big surprise, right?). His last time racing was a state-bred win where he easily cruised past the favorite in the stretch. This is an ambitious spot for him and he figures to have a lot to do in the stretch. Junior Alvarado retains the mount.

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Went The Day Well (Proud Citizen x Tiz Maie by Tiznow) 6-1: Graham Motion trainee was finishing best of all in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby after what could have been the worst trip in the race. With another jump he would have been third and a better set up would have had him in a photo with I’ll Have Another. The blinkers have clearly made him a better horse. John Velazquez would be wise to keep him closer to the front. If he can work out a trip similar to the one he had in the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes, then Team Valor International could have their first Preakness Stakes winner. In fact, we will call for him to pull the upset.

Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway x Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer) 6-1: He didn’t have much of an excuse while finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby. It was a sharp enough effort to remove my doubts about his progression. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him produce a better effort here, but I still wouldn’t count on it. Trainer Mike Harrington might want to consider throwing the blinkers back on. He seems to be a better horse with them.

Bodemeister (Empire Maker x Untouched Talent by Storm Cat) 8-5: It was surprising to see him stay on so well after setting a wicked fast pace in the Kentucky Derby. Try not to get antsy about playing him at such a short number though. His race wasn’t as good as it looked when you consider how fast the track was playing. Groupie Doll smashed a track record in the Humana Distaff and the fractions were lightning quick in almost every race.

Despite that, the race figures to set up perfectly for him. His chances are based on how much he’s got left in the tank. Essentially, you must ask yourself how much the Kentucky Derby took out of him. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a good shot at winning, because he does, but I cant bet him when I consider the circumstances. Handicapping aside, we wish the best of luck to our friends at Zayat Stables who own this bay colt. Bob Baffert trains and Mike Smith keeps the mount.

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Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy x Follow Your Bliss by Thunder Gulch) 12-1: This guy was the buzz horse going into the Kentucky Derby, but suffered from a poor trip under Garrett Gomez while finishing 10th. Regular rider Julien Leparoux will get the mount back for trainer Steve Asmussen. His closing style doesn’t fit this track well and he figures to be left with too much to do. Add him to the stable mail and bet him when he gets back on turf or synthetic.

I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley x Arch’s Gal Edith by Arch) 5-2: The Kentucky Derby winner had a very good trip and benefited from a fast pace at Churchill Downs. However, you cant criticize him for winning the race, no matter how he did it. I love the gameness he exhibits and he should be ready to run a big race on two weeks rest given the light campaign he has had leading up to the Preakness. Mario Gutierrez has enough tactical speed to keep Bodemeister honest and it is important that he does so.

Historically, Kentucky Derby winners are very tough to handle in the Preakness Stakes. However, only four of the last 10 Derby winners have won the Preakness. Of the other six Derby winners three were second, one was third, one was off the board and the ill-fated Barbaro did not finish. In the end, I’ll Have Another has the stuff to win this race and will likely run a career best race. He deserves to be the favorite and is the horse to beat. Best of luck to trainer Doug O’Neill as he attempts to grab the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Optimizer (English Channel x Indy Pick by AP Indy) 30-1: Pretty much just ran around the track at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby to finish 11th. D Wayne Lukas will mix things up here by giving the mount to Corey Nakatani. That likely wont be enough to do the trick for this bay colt that is still eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime race.

Cozetti (Cozzene x Lemon Drop Cello by Lemon Drop Kid) 30-1: Rallied well to be fourth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last out. His only win was over a wet main track against six other foes at Churchill Downs. It’s hard to see him impacting this race. Jose Lezcano will ride for Dale Romans.

My top selection to win the Preakness Stakes is Went The Day Well (6-1). He had a horrid trip in the Derby and was finishing best of all towards the finish. John Velazquez has enough early speed to stay within striking range and will be on a horse that figures to run the best race of his life.

Not far behind my selection is Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another (5-2). It appears that he is also sitting on the best race of his career. A light campaign leading up to his last victory will serve him well as he tries to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

While Bodemeister has strong merits, he also has question marks. At what figures to be a very short price he is a clear play against.

  • Preakness Exacta: 2,5,9 BOX
  • Preakness Trifecta: 5,9 with 2,5,7,9 with 1,2,5,7,9
  • Preakness Superfecta: 5,9 with 5,9 with 1,2,6,7 with ALL

Bet the Preakness Stakes with TVG, where new players get $50 for each of their three months!

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One leg down, two to go; recapping the 2012 Kentucky Derby

May 8, 2012 By Leave a Comment
I'll Have Another

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister seemingly had the 2012 Kentucky Derby in his pocket turning for home under the Twin Spires, but it was I’ll Have Another who rallied down the lane to register the 1 ½ length score. It was a neck back to the hard charging Dullahan and ¾ of a length behind that one was Went The Day Well.

The top four finishers have exited the race in stellar condition and all except for Dullahan appear ready to tackle the Preakness Stakes on May 19. Other probables for the Preakness that are exiting the Derby include Creative Cause, Liaison, Hansen and Optimizer.

New shooters for the Preakness include Canonero II Stakes 1-2 finishers Pretension and Brimstone Island, 1-2 Derby Trial Stakes finishers Hierro and Paynter, Jerome Stakes winner The Lumber Guy and Arkansas Derby fourth place finisher Cozetti.

Mario Gutierrez & I’ll Have Another

This time last year jockey Mario Gutierrez was riding at Hastings in Canada’s British Columbia. Now, he is a Kentucky Derby winning jockey. Click here to read more about Gutierrez.

I’ll Have Another is a magnificent horse, but he largely won the Kentucky Derby because of a perfectly executed ride by Gutierrez. He had the horse in the perfect spot and didn’t lose much ground the entire way.

Equally important, he wasn’t stopped or impeded the entire way. Often times the Kentucky Derby is won by the best horse that gets the best trip. That is to take nothing away from this colt though. I’ll Have Another is beautifully bred and fresh; that means he will have at least a fighting chance to win the Triple Crown.

Team O’Neill  & J Paul Reddam

I remember back in 2008 when trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam hooked up to win the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland with a talented colt named Square Eddie. They had brought the Canadian bred colt home from England where he had been racing after being sold for $200k at the Keeneland September Sale.

He was dismissed at odds of 10-1, but Reddam and O’Neill knew what they had with the son of Smart Strike. They even referred to him as “Baby Curlin” in honor of the reigning Horse of the Year that was by the same sire. This is just one of several examples of success O’Neill and Reddam have had together.

Now they are Kentucky Derby winners. It’s great to see a group like this take the most important race in the world. I’ve always been a fan of Doug O’Neill as he trained one of my favorite horses, Lava Man. I wish them the best of luck moving forward and would love to see them bring home the Triple Crown.

Mike Smith’s ride

Many take issue with Smith allowing Bodemeister to run off to the lead and set grueling fractions of :45.39 and 1:09.80. His charge entered the stretch with a three length lead and almost stole the race on the front end.

Detractors say he should have tucked in behind Trinniberg and waited to make a move. While that may have produced a better result, there is really no way to know for sure. Smith thought he had the best horse, laid his cards down the table, and came up just a little short. I cant criticize him; he rode the colt brilliantly.

Bodemeister is probably the best horse of his generation and sadly he entered the race a bit short on experience. If he can run the same race in the Preakness then he will likely win that race.

Union Rags just isn’t that good

We screamed it from the rooftops before this race and we were right. Union Rags just isn’t a very fast horse. He entered the Kentucky Derby as perhaps the sixth or seventh fastest horse in the race and that’s about how he ran as he ended up finishing seventh.

Many will point to a bad ride from Julien Leparoux. It wasn’t the greatest ride ever, but we must remember that he was pinched at the beginning and from the inside he really had no chance to position the horse.

Let’s not judge rider or horse based on a single race. Even with that said, I still feel Union Rags is rated much too highly. I’m not saying he wont come back and win a big race or two, but he wasn’t among the top 3 or 4 sophomores before the Triple Crown and he wont be when it ends.

The connections will point to the Belmont Stakes, a race where I expect the colt to struggle once more. A son of Dixie Union going 12 furlongs? Yea; good luck with that.

Horse to watch? Went The Day Well

For as much deserved hype as Bodemeister is getting, Went The Day Well ran equally well. Take a look at what John Velazquez had to say about his trip.

JOHN VELAZQUEZ (Went the Day Well, fourth) – “We didn’t break out of there well and it was screwed up from there on. I was actually just beating Julien (Leparoux, Union Rags) into the first turn, so that’s how far back we were. The horse next to me clipped heels coming out of the gate, so now I’ve got to steady and go inside of him. We go to the first turn and he gets pushed over and I have to steady again. Now I’m far back with Julien. Now I have to go around the horse in the first turn, got outrun three-wide, went back to the inside, and I got a good trip from there, but I was so far back I couldn’t make up that much ground, no way, not on this kind of track the way it is today.”
Team Valor, John Velazquez and Graham Motion are proving to be one of the best teams in all of horse racing. They find themselves with a lightly raced colt that is bred to run all day long and should only get better from this point forward. You can say this about many horses in the history of the race, but with a better trip this colt would have been a Kentucky Derby winner. My gut instinct tells me he will end up a Preakness winner.

Alpha and Hansen can’t handle big crowds

Not yet, anyway. Both colts were quite worked up before the Kentucky Derby and likely lost all chance to win because of it. Hansen ended up ninth and Alpha was twelfth. The latter is going to get a little time off. The Belmont Stakes might be a logical spot for him. With his great stamina pedigree he would have a big shot of winning in that spot. Meanwhile, trainer Michael Maker and owner Kendall Hansen will make a decision on whether or not to send Hansen to the Preakness by the end of this week.

The 2012 Kentucky Derby has re-energized my passion for the Triple Crown. I have thought all along that this is the deepest and most contentious group of sophomores we have seen since 2007 and they proved me right. I look forward to watching the feats of speed that this group is sure to display in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

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Betting the Kentucky Derby online

May 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

TwinSpires

Still looking for a place to bet the Derby? Look no further than the official partner of the Derby, Twinspires.com. It is one of the safest and easiest places to bet horse racing online. New players get a $100 sign up bonus, so don’t wait! Here are some great reasons to play online.

  • No crowds! Food is nearby and wont cost an arm and a leg and there is no line at the bathroom. Well, not at my house anyway. You have to like that!
  • Easy betting from your mobile phone. Even on the go, your Twinspires.com account is at your fingertips. Don’t have online internet? No fear, you can call in and place bets with a live telephone operator.
  •  Free BRISnet past performances. This is the best horse racing information available.
  • Real-time racing information including, odds, will-pays, program changes, and track conditions.
  • Live video allows fans to watch every race that they bet.
  • Features like conditional wagering will make sure your bet is place under if a horse is above a certain number. For example, if you want to bet Horse X at 5-1 and he goes off at 3-1 the computer will cancel the wager if you request it to do so in advance.

I know where I’m betting the 2012 Kentucky Derby; Twinspires.com. You should too! Just click the banner above or either of the 3 links in this post to claim your $100 sign up bonus!

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The Daily Derby News Blitz – May 4, 2012

May 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

 

Javier Castellano, shown here giving Gemologist a kiss, was involved in a spill at Churchill today

Welcome to the final installment of the 2012 Daily Derby News Blitz.  It has been a fun pre-Derby season, with many talented colts graduating from major races all across the United States set to converge in Louisville tomorrow.

The Derby boys will have to wait though, because today was all about the ladies.  The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks was the highlight at Churchill Downs Friday.  Threats of rain didn’t deter a large crowd from packing in under the Twin Spires.  The weather took a more dangerous turn right near Oaks time, and the infield had to be evacuated.  Even this didn’t dampen the mood, and once the fillies were cleared to come to the paddock, the day brightened instantly.  Jockey Javier Castellano, who was set to ride favored Grace Hall in the Oaks, suffered a frightening spill in the previous race.  However, once back in the jockey’s room, the rider declared he was alright to ride and was soon given the leg up on the favorite.  However, it just wasn’t her day.  It was all about girl power as Believe You Can, with female rider Rosie Napravnik aboard, crossed the finish line first after a gutty stretch duel with Broadway’s Alibi.  Grace Hall ended up 3rd.  With the victory, Napravnik became the first female jockey to ever win the Kentucky Oaks.  It was also the first Grade 1 win for the 24-year-old rider.  The charismatic cowboy Larry Jones, who also trained the Kentucky Oaks winner in 2008 (Proud Spell), was all smiles in the winner’s circle this evening.

For those who pegged Believe You Can in the Kentucky Oaks, take a look at the payouts for the Oaks/Derby Double for a $2 bet!
1. Daddy Long Legs, $1,788
2. Optimizer, $2,415
3. Take Charge Indy, $617
4. Union Rags, $208
5. Dullahan, $370
6. Bodemeister, $276
7. Rousing Sermon, $2,436
8. Creative Cause, $389
9. Trinniberg, $2,239
10. Daddy Nose Best, $483
11. Alpha, $537
12. Prospective, $2,588
13. Went the Day Well, $867
14. Hansen, $662
15. Gemologist, $338
16. El Padrino, $637
17. Done Talking, $2,735
18. Sabercat, $1,676
19. I’ll Have Another, $731
20. Liaison, $3,224

The track could end up muddy or sloppy for the Derby tomorrow.  Throughout the entire day, a 40% chance of rain is slated for Louisville.

There were no horses scratched from the Kentucky Derby today, despite swirling rumors about Creative Cause.  The odds have changed somewhat throughout the day, as bettors finally get a chance to wager on the horses they like.  The current favorite is now Union Rags at 6-1.  Bodemeister, the morning-line favorite, has drifted up to 8-1.  Lots of money has been coming in on Take Charge Indy with Calvin Borel set to ride him, lowering his odds all the way down to 8-1 off a 15-1 morning-line.  Below is the full field, with morning-line odds next to them followed by their odds at 6:35 this evening.
1. Daddy Long Legs, 30-1,    26-1
2. Optimizer,               50-1,    31-1
3. Take Charge Indy, 15-1,     8-1
4. Union Rags,            9-2,      6-1
5. Dullahan,                 8-1,      10-1
6. Bodemeister,           4-1,      8-1
7. Rousing Sermon,     50-1,    20-1
8. Creative Cause,       12-1,    12-1
9. Trinniberg,               50-1,    41-1
10. Daddy Nose Best, 15-1,   14-1
11. Alpha,                   15-1,    22-1
12. Prospective,           30-1,    69-1
13.Went The Day Well, 20-1, 20-1
14. Hansen,                 10-1,    7-1
15. Gemologist,           6-1,      8-1
16. El Padrino,            20-1,    34-1
17. Done Talking,       50-1,    34-1
18. Sabercat,               30-1,    38-1
19. I’ll Have Another, 12-1,    17-1
20. Liaison,                 50-1,    60-1

Thank you for following all the excitement leading to the Kentucky Derby with the Daily Derby News Blitz at Gradedstakes.com!  Good luck to all the horses and their connections, and may they all return safely from their run in the 138th Kentucky Derby.

 

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Kentucky Derby Contender: Alpha

May 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Alpha

Alpha

Alpha

(Starts: 6 Win: 3 Place: 2 Show: 0 Earnings: $500,000)

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (27%)

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh (13.1%)

THE CONNECTIONS: At first blush there has to be a bit of trepidation regarding Alpha’s connections since defending Eclipse Award Winning jockey Ramon Dominguez is choosing to ride Hansen over Alpha on Saturday. But, Rajiv Maragh is no stranger to riding in big races himself, and is arguably one of the top two or three young jockeys on the East Coast. Last year Maragh finished third in the Kentucky Derby aboard Mucho Macho Man.

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin wins at nearly a 27% clip and is among the top trainers on the East Coast. In recent years he has trained superstars like Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Invasor, and has had Triple Crown success in winning the Belmont Stakes with Jazil.

THE HORSE: Alpha is one of the toughest horses to figure out in the entire Derby field. On his best form, he absolutely competes with any horse in the field. But, in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Alpha acted up in the gate before running a very dull 11th. However, Alpha started his three-year-old campaign by dismantling fields in the Count Fleet and Wither.

Still, there are a lot of questions surrounding how he comes into the Derby. First, his connections changed their mind about sending him to the Florida Derby, then the Louisiana Derby, before ultimately deciding on running in the Wood Memorial. In that race Alpha finished a game second to Gemologist despite a very rough trip that resulted in cuts on his leg. Those cuts led to an infection which forced a delay in Alpha’s shipping to Kentucky.

Despite all of this, Alpha had a great final work and shipped to Louisville Monday evening. His three-year-old record of two stakes wins and the second place in a photo against Gemologist is close to as impressive as anything in the field. Kiaran McLaughlin is a world class trainer, and if he thinks Alpha is ready to roll you may be getting great value on one of the most talented runners in the field.

THE PEDIGREE:  Quite possibly the best Derby distance pedigree in the entire 2012 Derby field. Alpha is by Bernardini who is, quite possibly, the hottest young sire on the planet. The remarkable Bernardini won the Preakness during his three-year-old campaign and is off to a remarkable start at stud. This is only his second crop of three-year-olds, but his first crop included Belmont Stakes runner-up, and Travers winner, Stay Thirsty. Of course, Bernardini is also by the remarkable stamina influence, and sire of sires, A.P. Indy.

Alpha’s dam side is possibly even more stamina laden. Alpha’s dam, Munnaya, is a daughter of Nijinsky II, the last horse to lay claim to the English Triple Crown. Munnaya herself was a stakes over at 11 furlongs and has produced a number of sons and daughters capable of handling the Derby distance of 10 furlongs. This is a remarkable female family that has produced superstars like Kentucky Oaks winner Seaside Attraction and her Florida Derby winning son, Cape town, multiple Grade I Winner, Fantastic Light, Delaware Handicap winner, Swift Temper, and Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner-up, Gorgeous.

CONCLUSION: Alpha figures to sit in the second half of the Derby pack early and make his move late. This seems to be an advantage in a Derby featuring a number of horses with good early speed. His pedigree is remarkable for the distance as well, and he has connections that are definitely capable of winning world class races. The big question is whether or not the slight infection causes him to be just a little off of his game. If he’s ready to roll, Alpha offers a very tempting price play as he will be around 15-1 on Saturday while Gemologist, a horse he just lost to by inches, figures to be about half that price.

PEDIGREE GRADE: A+

OVERALL GRADE: A-

FAIR ODDS: 12-1

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2012 Kentucky Oaks Preview

May 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment
2012 Kentucky Oaks

2012 Kentucky Oaks

**Full card picks for Kentucky Oaks & Kentucky Derby**

#1 On Fire Baby 4-1 (Smoke Glacken x Ornate by Gilded Time) hasn’t raced since March 10 and will be going further than her pedigree suggests she can go. The very talented lass is a two time graded stakes winner at Curchill Downs.

#2 Grace Hall 5-2 (Empire Maker x Season’s Greeting by Ezzoud) was last seen crushing the competition in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She is bred to run for days and figures to get a favorable set up; very dangerous.

#3 Summer Applause 15-1 (Harlan’s Holiday x Summer Exhibition by Royal Academy) raced wide last out while just missing in the Fair Grounds Oaks. The works are solid and she is very similar to the favorite at a much better price.

#4 Eden’s Moon 12-1 (Malibu Moon x Eden’s Causeway  by Giant’s Causeway) Very talented filly was out finished last out in the Santa Anita Oaks. That was only her third race and she could experience marked improvement this time around. Bob Baffert does very well on Derby weekend.

#5 Hard Not To Like 20-1 (Hard Spun x Like A Gem by Tactical Cat) will be racing on the dirt for the first time. Pedigree suggests she will handle it well. Figures to move up in her second start of the year after being second in the Ashland Stakes. Best price play in the race.

#6 Broadway’s Alibi 4-1 (Vindication x Broadway Gold by Seeking The Gold) is an incredibly quick speed ball that has  won four in a row around a single turn. The big question is whether or not she can stretch her speed around two turns. Pedigree suggests that she can, but this is a tough spot to try.

#7 Sacristy 50-1 (Pulpit x Christies Treasure by Belong To Me)  sprinter is probably going further than she can in this spot. Speed and fade.

#8 Jemima’s Pearl 10-1 (Distorted Humor x Jemima by Owington) couldn’t get by Amie’s Dini in the Fantasy Stakes, but has trained forwardly since that effort. She gave Derby favorite Bodemeister a run for his money in their latest work. Baffert won this race last year.

#9 Believe You Can 10-1 (Proud Citizen x El Fasto by El Prado) Went gate to wire in the Fair Ground Oaks last out. Her works are quite quick and trainer Larry Jones won this race with another daughter of Proud Citizen, Proud Spell, back in 2008.

#10 And Why Not 15-1 (Street Cry x Alchemist by AP Indy) Regally bred filly is working well and has turned more than a few heads in the morning. Despite that, she is hard to like because of bad form. Maybe in the future she can put it all together.

#11 Karlovy Vary 20-1 (Dynaformer x The Right Pew by Pulpit) won the Ashland over Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf champion Stephanie’s Kitten when last seen. She is an unknown commodity on dirt, but if she can transfer her Poly Track form then she will be live at a big price.

#12 Colonial Empress 50-1 (Empire Maker x Colonella by Pleasant Colony) has no business in this race. She is still a maiden and was last seen finishing last by 17 lengths in the Fair Ground Oaks. Would be the biggest upset in the history of the race.

#13 Amie’s Dini 10-1 (Bandini x Run Kate Run by Cherokee Run) rags to riches filly was purchased for just $3k. She chased home the freakishly fast Mamma Kimbo in the Fantasy Stakes when last seen. Will need a good break from the outside.

#14 Yara (Put It Back x Ashlee’s Lady by Gilded Time) pulled a shocking upset over Grace Hall in the Davona Dale, but was knocked out by Grace Hall in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in her last trip to the track. This is probably further than she wants to go.

**Full card picks for Kentucky Oaks & Kentucky Derby**

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2012 Kentucky Derby Picks

May 4, 2012 By 1 Comment

2012 Kentucky Derby Picks

Kentucky Derby Picks

Check out our comprehensive Kentucky Derby Betting Guide. It includes everything below and much, much more.

The Kentucky Derby is Saturday and we have finally finished our intensive preparations for this incredible betting race. This year, more than any other year in the past, we are supremely confident in our selections. One of our best plays on the card is rated at 30-1 on the morning line. Buy our Kentucky Derby picks below to find out who it is!

On the card of 13 races we have 6 rock solid win plays. We intend to cash some of the biggest exotic wagers in the history this site; and we cashed for $44k on a superfecta last year. You do not want to bet the Kentucky Derby without us on your side.

Kentucky Oaks & Derby Picks ($14.99)

  • This package includes our top selection to WIN in every Churchill Downs race on Friday and Saturday.
  • Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta plays
  • Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4 plays
  • Pick 6 play
Kentucky Derby Guide/Picks
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$50k Kentucky Derby betting game

May 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Looking for some real action on Kentucky Derby day? Look no further than our friends at DerbyWars. This horse racing tournament site is offering a massive $50k Kentucky Derby game. The entry is $175 and the game is limited to 325 players. At this moment it is at about half of its capacity. Top prize is an incredible $20k! If you have your best handicapping day yet on Saturday and you don’t win this game then you will regret it forever.

Don’t waste any time. Get over to DerbyWars right now and sign up for the $50k game. I’ll be playing and it’s going to be the most exciting part of my Derby weekend.

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Kentucky Derby Contender: Sabercat

May 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment
SABERCAT

SABERCAT

**Learn about ALL of the 2012 contenders by getting our Kentucky Derby Guide**

Sabercat

(Starts: 8  Win: 3  Place: 0  Show: 2  Earnings: $782,849)

Trainer: Steve Asmussen (23.5%)

Jockey: Corey Nakatani (19.9%)

THE CONNECTIONS: Steve Asmussen has one of the largest stables in the country and saddles the most starters just about every year. He has trained two Horses of the Year, in Curlin and Rachel Alexandra, and won almost every Graded Stakes race an East Coast trainer could hope to win, except the one they all dream about.  He’s had solid chances in the past with Curlin in 2007 who finished third, Pyro who disappointed in eighth in 2008, and last year he sent Nehro to a runner-up finish behind Animal Kingdom. He trains Sabercat for Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC, who have had five previous chances to win the roses, coming closest in 1981 when Classic Go Go ran fourth and the most recent being Pyro.

Corey Nakatani, like Asmussen and probably even more so, has won just about every major Stakes race a jockey could hope for. He has won over 3,400 races lifetime but does not yet have the Kentucky Derby (GI) on his resume, or any of the Triple Crown jewels, though he has won the Kentucky Oaks (GI) twice. He was bridesmaid aboard Nehro, but nobody was beating the winner that day. He migrated to Mexico to begin his career and get his first win, but has spent most of his time in the ultra-competitive jockey colony in Southern California. He ventures east more and more these days to ride horses for Asmussen and others, and even won six races in one day at Belmont last fall.

THE HORSE: In his fourth start last year Sabercat finally broke his maiden going a mile at Monmouth, and in his next he took the listed Garden City Stakes. The colt rounded out his freshman campaign with a win in the $1M Delta Jackpot (GIII), the richest 2-year-old race in the country.  He got bottled up and had to completely stop his momentum on the final turn, but when running room became available he shot through like a rocket and drew away from the field on the bullring.  This secured him enough graded earnings to get a spot in the starting gate come the first Saturday in May, so 2012 became all about keeping him healthy and fit while getting him some experience against the best talent.  He was eighth in the Rebel (GII) and came back to finish third in the Arkansas Derby (GI) in his only two starts this year. The running line doesn’t necessarily indicate it because Bodemeister ran away and hid from his rivals that day, but Sabercat improved and closed nicely in that race.

THE PEDIGREE: Sabercat’s pedigree suggests he is one of the most likely to relish in the ten furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby. The sire, Bluegrass Cat, stands at Vinery’s New York operation for $17,500. The son of Storm Cat finished second behind Barbaro in the 2006 Derby and second to Jazil in the Belmont (GI), and came back to win the Haskell Invitational (GI) that same year. The dam, Miner’s Blessing, was unraced but all seven of her starters are winners. She is by another Kentucky Derby runner-up, Forty Niner, who was beaten by the filly Winning Colors in 1988. Forty Niner has thrown high-profile routers such as 1996 Belmont winner Editor’s Note, Coronado’s Quest, and Distorted Humor. Clearly the stamina and the class are in the bloodlines to carry this colt the distance on Saturday.

CONCLUSION: Sabercat’s running style will suit him well behind what figures to be a hotly-contested pace. He was making ground up on everyone in his last start besides the winner. He also has the pedigree and the conditioner to give him every right to put himself in the mix late in the Churchill Downs stretch, and at a long price most likely.

 

PEDIGREE GRADE: A

OVERALL GRADE: B-

FAIR ODDS: 25-1

**Learn about ALL of the 2012 contenders by getting our Kentucky Derby Guide**

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , ,
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