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Hansen will start Kentucky Derby journey in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes

January 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Hansen

Hansen

The $400k Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park/Race 10/Sunday) is the first of three of Kentucky Derby prep races at Gulfstream Park. The others are the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Last year’s winner, Dialed In, would go on to win the Florida Derby before failing as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. In 2005, Barbaro won this race before capturing the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Silver Max (Badge of Silver x Kissin Rene by Kissin Kris) $20k yearling purchase broke his maiden last out on the grass after five consecutive second place finishes. The Dale Romans trainee will have Julien Leparoux in the irons. That’s the only redeeming thing I can see about him.

Consortium (Bernardini x Marietta by Machiavellian) Godolphin owned colt was an impressive first out winner at Aqueduct before yielding to his rival, Algorithms, in his second trip to the track. He will get a little extra ground here, but that shouldn’t hurt him too much as this is still a one turn race. First time lasix is an interesting factor. Trainer Kiaran Mclaughlin, wins 26% of the time with the addition of the medication. It wouldn’t be shocking or surprising to see him win, but I’m going to vote against it. John Velazquez will ride.

My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect x Silent Justice by Elusive Quality) Took the $200k Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs as the 1-5 favorite before finishing 27 lengths behind Sabercat to be ninth in the Delta Jackpot. He has worked like a monster for trainer Kelly Breen since that defeat, but I don’t see enough to make me think he can win in this spot. Count him as a pace factor and nothing more.

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Hansen (Tapit x Stormy Sunday by Sir Cat) This is the big shot, the top sophomore in America. He’s the favorite (in my mind) to win the Kentucky Derby by virtue of his win last out victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Undefeated in three starts, he’s got killer early speed. The connections might try to rate him here. If they ever plan to do so, this would be the time. If this were a normal race I would love Hansen, but it’s not. It’s a Kentucky Derby prep race. There’s more to it than what you can see on paper. Even considering that, I like him to win; and impressively too. Ramon Dominguez will ride for trainer Michael Maker.

Fort Loudon (Awesome of Course x Lottsa Talc by Talc) He’s better than he looked last out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished seventh after a wide trip. Before that, he won four races in a row, including three Florida bred stakes races. He won them all with ease. I don’t think he can compete for the win, but he’s a stellar colt that might improve with time.

Algorithms (Bernardini x Ava Knowsthecode by Cryptoclearance) Regally bred colt has people talking after his win over Consortium. That win came after a six month rest for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey JJ Castellano. I love his tremendous late punch which he exhibits despite laying near the pace. Read more about him here.

From a betting standpoint, this is a tricky race.  Hansen should demolish them, but what should happen doesn’t always occur. Still, I think there is more than enough there for him to get it done.  I’ll make him my top selection to win the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. If an upset happens, look to Fort Loudon or Algorithms. You can bet both the Holy Bull Stakes at TVG where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

TVG- Watch. Wager. Win!

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Algorithms will begin Kentucky Derby quest in Holy Bull Stakes

January 18, 2012 By 1 Comment


It is not yet known with any certainty how good Algorithms (Bernardini x Ava knowsthecode by Cryptoclearance) is, but we will quickly find out. After winning his debut at Belmont in June, the quick colt was given some time off. His next start, six months later, came at Gulfstream Park and it is that effort that has people talking. He posted a very good looking win over a colt named Consortium that had a recency edge and appeared every bit as good as Algorithms prior to the race. You will find footage of the race above.

The Starlight Racing owned colt will begin his quest for racing’s most coveted prize, the Kentucky Derby, with a start in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on January 29. It is there that he will meet champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Hansen. Trainer Todd Pletcher is throwing him directly to the wolves. To be the best he will have to beat the best. Might as well give him a shot against the best, right? He might surprise everyone.

Algorithms has the pedigree to run for days and should love the extra ground that the Kentucky Derby and its prep races will offer. His sire, Bernardini, is noted as a winner of the Preakness Stakes, Travers Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup. His stamina is already showing in progeny like Travers Stakes victor Stay Thirsty. He’s got Cryptoclearance as his damsire. That horse won the Florida Derby and Donn Handicap. He’s known for producing stars like Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop.

Ava knowsthecode has had great success as a broodmare. Algorithms is a half brother to Hutcheson Stakes winner Keyed Entry and Woody Stephens Stakes winner Justin Phillip.

One of the most impressive things about Algorithms is his running style. In both of his races he has taken up a spot near the front in the early going before finishing up very strongly in the late stages of the race. He could be a push button horse. This will serve him well in his quest for Kentucky Derby glory.

He might be not be ready for Hansen on January 29, but Algorithms has a big future and is likely to remain a key Kentucky Derby Contender all the way to the finish.

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Bearish on Union Rags

January 14, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Union Rags

Union Rags

Most trainers are blessed to win the Kentucky Derby once in their life. Just getting a horse to start in the race is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Michael Matz won the race in 2006 with the infinitely talented tragic hero Barbaro. Now, in 2012, he’s got a horse that’s likely to take him back to the promise land. Can the colt named Union Rags become his second victor in the Run for the Roses? Right now, he is favored to do so.

The next start for the Chadds Ford Stables owned colt will come on February 26 in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. That race has been quite salty over the past few years, with winners like Eskendereya, Quality Road, Scat Daddy and First Samurai. It’s likely to be just as hard in 2012 with his main rival, Hansen, also targeting that race.

After that, he will look to the Grade I Florida Derby, a race won by Barbaro in 2006. The race has been a great springboard for Kentucky Derby contenders like Empire Maker (second), Monarchos, Big Brown and Ice Box (second). This could be the first occasion where we see him exhibit true distance limitations.  While I expect him to handle the nine furlongs distance of the Florida Derby, I’m not so sure the extra panel in the Kentucky Derby is within his range.

Pedigree is the primary reason he might struggle. Union Rags finished a hard charging second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but was drifting quite a bit down the lane. His sire, Dixie Union, won the Haskell Invitational. Despite that, he hasn’t really produced classic type runners. Broodmare sire Gone West produced runners that were more sprinter/miler oriented like Speightstown and Grand Slam.

It’s not all bad. His second dam, Terpsichorist, was an excellent turf router and her sire, Nijinsky, has been an excellent route influence. Distance will matter less as he develops into a more mature and defined colt, but for now, it’s something to consider.

While the current trend favors only two preps for the first Saturday in May, it might be beneficial for this guy to race three times. It would give him the chance to become more of a professional before he goes back to Churchill Downs, where anything can happen.

For all the not so good things I’ve pointed out, there is plenty to like about Union Rags. First and foremost, he is incredibly fast. We saw that in in the Saratoga Special, Champagne Stakes and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s had a bit of racing trouble and bad luck in his young career and handled it very well. That’s always a good sign.

To put this in wall street terms, I’m a bear on Union Rags. That’s subject to change, obviously, but for now I’m not sure he’s got enough bottom to get the classic distance.

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Will Hansen overcome his front running style?

January 11, 2012 By 2 Comments
Hansen

Hansen

Dr. Kendall Hansen has January 29 marked on his calender. You should too. That is when the Kentucky doctor’s champion namesake will compete in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Hansen (Tapit x Storm Sunday by Sir Cat) is undefeated in three starts and has never been in any place except for first at every point of those three races. He isn’t the first colt to be in this situation, nor will he be the last. Names like Uncle Mo, War Pass and Johannesburg come to mind. They failed to live up to their three-year-old hype for various reasons. Will Hansen be the same?

Only time will tell. For now, he’s got one big obstacle to overcome and that is his running style. So far in his career he has been all speed, but the ability to rate is a skill he needs to gain; and fast.

If there was ever a time to try and get him to sit behind speed it would be in the Holy Bull Stakes. There isn’t much to lose as it’s the first race of the campaign and he has the luxury of more than enough graded stakes earnings to gain entry to the Kentucky Derby.

The ability to sit behind horses is of paramount importance if Hansen is going to wear roses in May. The break in the Kentucky Derby is like nothing else in all of horse racing and he very well might not be able to make it to the front. Personally, I’d rather find out how he will respond sooner rather than later.

All in all, I expect Hansen to continue to be a top contender for the Kentucky Derby regardless of whether or not he will relax behind horses. Hansen may end up being one of those horses that just throws down the gauntlet and never looks back.  Speed horses can and do win numerous races, but in the Kentucky Derby it will be a liability. If he is able to provide his jockey with tactical speed he comes all the more deadly. Hansen has speed, but it will take more than just that to win on the first Saturday in May.

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Out of Bounds impressive winner of Grade 3 Sham Stakes

January 8, 2012 By 1 Comment
Out of Bounds wins the Grade 3 Sham Stakes.

Out of Bounds wins the Grade 3 Sham Stakes.

Santa Anita’s Grade 3 Sham Stakes has been an interesting stop for Kentucky Derby prospects, but the race has never seen its winner wear the roses. Eoin Harty’s Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat x Unbridled Elaine by Unbridled’s Song) will try to change that.

The beautifully bred colt raced in fourth on the rail before swinging wide as they turned for home and surging past the leader late in the stretch for a ½ length triumph. Garrett Gomez put a great ride on him and seems excited about the future. He had the following to say to Brisnet.com‘s James Scully.

“My horse jumped away really well and traveled really good,” Gomez said. “I was able to cover up behind a couple horses. He did everything really professional for a horse that’s only run a couple of times. I was excited by his last couple races.”

“He’s such a good-sized colt and I thought the two turns would really help him because he’s such a long-striding horse. It’s just a matter of getting him to understand how to do it the right way. I think he’s got enough ability to do it. He showed us all today. He traveled really well, did things the right way, and finished up well.”

The size difference between Out of Bounds and runner up Secret Circle was very evident as they crossed the wire. Out of Bounds is a very big colt!

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle (Eddington x Ragtime Hope by Dixieland Band) lost nothing in defeat. He was able to relax very well and didn’t appear to be under too much duress at the wire. He simply got beat, but there is clearly room for him to move forward and the connections have no reason to hang their heads.

It’s too early to say how good the California sophomores are in 2012, but I certainly like them more after the Sham Stakes.

What do you think? Leave a comment below and be heard.

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Inaugural 2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders update

December 27, 2011 By Leave a Comment

It’s almost time to ring in the New Year and with a new year comes a new edition of our favorite race, the Kentucky Derby. We track many of the contenders on a top ten list which you can find by hovering over our Free Horse Racing Picks button located on the black toolbar above and clicking Kentucky Derby Contenders on the drop down menu. Or if you prefer doing things the simple way you can just click Kentucky Derby Contenders in this sentence.

It is never easy to compile a list of ten young horses for a race like the Run for the Roses so early on in the process, but I think the first list is a fine one. The top horse, Hansen, has all the potential in the world. As an undefeated champion that has never been in any place expect for first, the sky is the limit.

There are a few interesting choices that you might not be familiar with. I’m very high on a son of Bernardini named Algorithms. He posted a sharp allowance score at Gulfstream after being on the shelf for several months. His next race will be the Holy Bull Stakes where he will meet the vaunted Hansen.

Another strong contender for the classic race is Brother Francis. He’s yet to win a race, but he has two graded placings after finishing second in the Hollywood Prevue and third in the CashCall Futurity. Time could turn into a problem if he doesn’t break the maiden soon, but I’ve got confidence in him.

Check out the Kentucky Derby Contenders list to learn more!

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2011 Delta Jackpot Stakes has Kentucky Derby implications

November 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Sabercat wins the Garden State Stakes

The $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs will almost assuredly impact the 2012 Kentucky Derby. The winner  is guaranteed a spot in the starting gate of the Run for the Roses because of the massive amount of graded stakes earnings accumulated by winning the Jackpot. Even the second place finisher will do well in that respect.

The last three winners of the Delta Jackpot have experienced mild success, but that success hasn’t come in the month of May at Churchill Downs. In fact, none of the three even made it to the race.

Big Drama, winner of the Jackpot in 2008, didn’t have a great three-year-old campaign, but he won the Breeders Cup Sprint as a four-year-old. The 2009 winner, Rule, looked to be kicking away in the Florida Derby, but faded to third. He hasn’t been much since. Gourmet Dinner who won the race last year, finished second in the Fountain of Youth in his last start.

Bob Baffert’s Drill (Lawyer Ron x Cat Dancer by Storm Cat) will be favored in the 2011 Jackpot. He was last seen finishing up the track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but before that he was second in the Grade 1 Norfolk and a winner in the Del Mar Futurity. Removing blinkers could have had something to do with his bad effort last out. They will go back on this time. Martin Garcia retains the mount.

Obviously Drill is a wonderful colt, but the price is going to be unacceptable. I like Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat x Miner’s Blessing by Forty Niner) just as much and I’m going to get a much better price on him. The Asmussen trainee was last seen exploding to a big victory in the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth. He sat right off the pace and annihilated the field when Angel Serpa asked him for run. I’m hoping for a similar trip in this race under Gerard Melancon.

Going to bet the Delta Jackpot? Considering doing so at Twinspires.com where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

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2012 post Breeders Cup Juvenile Kentucky Derby Contenders

November 11, 2011 By 4 Comments

Kentucky Derby contender Hansen fends off fellow contender Union Rags to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

The Breeders Cup is over and the scene for Kentucky Derby 2012 is starting to take shape.

Well, sort of.

It’s very likely that at least a few horses from the Juvenile will run for the roses on the first Saturday in May, but it is much more likely that the 2012 Kentucky Derby winner is still an obscure horse at this point. Despite that, I’m going to give you 5 horses to keep an eye on. You might see one of them draped in roses next year.

#1 Hansen (Tapit x Stormy Sunday by Sir Cat) I tabbed this horse as my top pick for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and he came through with a strong wire to wire score. He was clearly the best horse in the race and I don’t buy the talk that Union Rags should have won. Hansen raced on a dead rail and won while flashing early speed, something that was very hard to do that day. He will begin down the Kentucky Derby trail as a horse that has never been headed and that is simply amazing.

#2 Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West) No shame in being second best on Breeders Cup day. He was very green and it’s clear he’s got some learning to do. It was a striking difference from the professional colt we saw in the Champagne Stakes in his previous start. Can he turn the tables on Hansen? Only time will tell.

#3 Secret Circle (Eddington x Ragtime Hope by Dixieland Band) That was a crazy fast race he won in the Juvenile Sprint. Can he be the same animal going around two turns? Hopefully we get to find out soon.

#4 Currency Swap (High Cotton x Echo Bluff by Pine Bluff) The Hopeful winner has been laid up because of a minor injury. He’s looked highly talented thus far in his short career. The injury could be a blessing in disguise as it will allow him to mature. Look for him early on in 2012.

#5 Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway x Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer) Did we see his best effort in the Juvenile? Although he ran third, I’m not sure we  did. He had a set back in the morning a day or two before the race. He’s been brilliant when on his game. If he improves he could quickly vault near the top of this list.

Who do you like so far? Leave a comment and be heard!

 

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The way too soon 2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 5+1

October 20, 2011 By 2 Comments

The Breeders Cup may be right around the corner, but the Kentucky Derby never leaves my mind. A month has passed since my first look at the 2012 contenders and things have changed considerably. Let’s take a look at the Top 5 (Plus 1)Kentucky Contenders for 2012.

#1  Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway x Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer): I was right when I said we didn’t see his best in the Del Mar Futurity as the fast colt bounced back with an incredibly easy victory in the Norfolk to become a Grade 1 winner. He will now point to the Breeders Cup Juvenile where he could vie for favoritism with our second choice, Union Rags.

#2 Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West): Ended up an easy winner in the Champagne last out despite finding trouble on the back stretch and having to find room to run mid stretch. He now owns two stakes victories and will likely be the favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Michael Matz has got a beast in this one.

#3 Alpha (Bernardini x Munnaya by Nijinsky II) Debuted sharply to win for Kiaran McLaughlin and Darley before finishing a distant second to Union Rags. He isn’t nearly as good  as that one right now, but remember, we are thinking Kentucky Derby and that is many months away. He’s impeccably bred and is going to love the classic distance.

#4 Hansen (Tapit x Stormy Sunday by Sir Cat) I got to see this one up close and personal in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile where he made a joke of the race winning more easily than anyone else could have. That said, he didn’t beat a whole lot and still has only two starts. Wait and see.

#5 Drill (Lawyer Ron x Cat Dancer by Storm Cat) We have to forgive that effort in the Norfolk where he didn’t really show up. His Del Mar Futurity win was still very sharp and Baffert is still pointing him to the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He might be heard from in May.

#6 Currency Swap (High Cotton x Echo Bluff by Pine Bluff) He’s going to miss the Breeders Cup Juvenile due to an ankle injury, but that could be a blessing in disguise as he will get time off to grow up. He’s a perfect two for two in his young career with a maiden win and a triumph in the Grade 1 Hopeful.

Honorable Mentions: Optimizer, Overdriven, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy

Who do you like so far in the far off 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders list? It’s way too soon to say and for now I’m going to enjoy the Breeders Cup. This was a fun post regardless though!

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