May 18, 2012

The Daily Derby News Blitz – May 3, 2012

Hansen prepares for the 138th Kentucky Derby

As with many things, in horseracing no news is good news.  That is especially the case in the two days between the drawing of post positions and Kentucky Derby day.  Usually, if a major headline appears during one of those days, it is because a horse has been injured or has become ill and will miss the race.  Sadly, this has been fairly common the last few years, with last-second scratches of horses like 2009 G1 Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge and Eclipse Award winning juvenile male Uncle Mo in 2011.

Today, we inched one day closer to the Derby without any defections in the field of 20.  Churchill Downs is already buzzing with excitement for their marquee weekend.  Today, Hansen schooled in the paddock.  His charismatic co-owner, Dr. Kendall Hansen, joined him for his schooling session, even passing out Hansen dolls to fans who happened to be lucky enough to be nearby.  Earlier in the day, Hansen galloped around the track, which was the first time he had visited Churchill’s surface since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) here last fall.

Trainer Steve Asmussen’s Derby duo, Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat, also schooled today.  Both colts minded their manners and should be ready to run on Saturday.  Arkansas Derby winner Bodemeister and 2011 Cashcall Futurity winner (G1) Liaison, both trained by Bob Baffert, galloped 1 1/2 miles today around the Churchill oval.  Another trainer who has a pair in the Derby, Todd Pletcher, sent Wood Memorial (G1) winner Gemologist and Risen Star (G2) winner El Padrino to the track this morning, where both of them galloped 1 3/8 miles.

Union Rags, who was made the 2nd choice on the morning-line behind only Bodemeister, made another striking appearance today when he went on a 1 1/2 miles gallop.  His trainer, Michael Matz, has only run two horses in the Kentucky Derby before.  In 2006, he won with his first Derby starter (Barbaro), and in 2008, Visionaire finished 12th.  Matz is very happy to be back with another colt who has a good chance to win.  Many compare Union Rags to Barbaro.  Although Matz doesn’t like talking about the comparison too much, he did say that the two colts are similar, but added, “He still has to live up to what Barbaro did. We’ll find out Saturday.”

G1 Blue Grass victor Dullahan also schooled today.  Dullahan’s connections are so confident that they are almost guaranteeing their colt will win the Kentucky Derby.  Creative Cause was scheduled to make an appearance in the paddock but never came out today.  However, he did gallop.  Daddy Long Legs, who shipped over from Europe, remains in quarantine.  Tomorrow morning about 7:30, he is expected to head to the track for a gallop.  Rousing Sermon, Prospective, I’ll Have Another, Trinniberg, and Went The Day Well, all Derby long shots, galloped today as well.

Alpha galloped too, while his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin commented on how he was a bit nervous about his colt drawing post position 11.  Especially last year, Alpha tended to act up in the starting gate and the #11 horse is one of the first to load in the Derby field.  McLaughlin will have to hope that Alpha’s extensive gate schooling in 2012 will keep him composed as he waits for all the other runners to enter the starting gate.

Grade 3 Illinois Derby winner Done Talking, who was established at 50-1 on the morning-line, is another colt who isn’t a big fan of the starting gate.  He schooled around it today but was a little reluctant to load.

Take Charge Indy galloped under jockey Calvin Borel, who will ride him in Kentucky Derby 138.  Borel is a fan favorite, and has won three Derbies in the last five years.  Take Charge Indy’s owner, Chuck Sanford, is somewhat surprised that his colt is still so under the radar, considering he was 5th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Churchill, and he beat Union Rags last time out in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

While many trainers, especially those with their first Derby entrant, might be feeling nervous, surely trainer D. Wayne Lukas is calm.  Optimizer will be the 45th horse he has saddled to run in the Kentucky Derby over his long career.  The son of English Channel schooled in the paddock today after drawing the less-than-perfect post 2 yesterday.  However, he is a closer meaning he likes to run near the back of the pack.  He will likely slow down out of the gate and save ground before charging at the frontrunners late.  With a hot pace expected in this year’s Run For The Roses, it could set up nicely for a horse like this at 50-1.

The forecast for this weekend continues to look ominous.  Friday, which is Kentucky Oaks day, there is a 50% chance of rain, while Derby Day itself has a 40% chance currently.  A sloppy or muddy racetrack could completely change the outcome of the race, depending on which horses excel on it.

That’s all for today.  Check back tomorrow to get a recap of the Kentucky Oaks, as well as updates on the 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders!

Do You Suffer From Pretty Pony Syndrome?

It has happened to the best of us.  You are at the racetrack enjoying a glorious day of horseracing, perhaps checking out the horses walking through the paddock as they get ready for a race.  Suddenly, it hits you.  Look how pretty the #4 horse is!  Wow, he looks great!  How could he not win?  He looks like a 5-year-old among a bunch of scraggly 2-year-olds as he prances around.  Who cares that he’s 25-1 on the tote-board.  Handicapping goes out the door as you rush to the betting window to put a few bucks on the beautiful horse that just stole your heart.  If this has ever happened to you, you’ve been a victim of Pretty Pony Syndrome.  This malady comes and goes, but there is no known cure for it.  On Kentucky Derby day, bouts of Pretty Pony Syndrome spread through the stands as rapidly as Mint Juleps and festive hats.

Just in case you are prone to this disease, you better prepare yourself for the wave of gorgeous 3-year-olds set to take center stage in the 138th Kentucky Derby May 5.  This is a very rich, talented, and especially beautiful batch of runners, so don’t be caught off guard by the following five head-turners.

 

Hansen

Hansen
This nearly white colt looks like he galloped straight out of a fairytale and onto the racetrack.  His connections know they have a special looking horse, and they fully embrace that fact.  For several races, they campaigned to dye his white tail blue to match his silks.  The stewards, who preside over the track, gave them a scolding over this, and the plan was scrapped (although prior to his last race, his tail was briefly dyed blue before being bleached back out shortly before the race.)  Hansen is one of the easiest horses to pick out of a field because he is so light and eye-catching.  He likes to run near the lead, so don’t be surprised when you see that bolt of white lightning flash from post 14.

 

Union Rags

Union Rags
Everyone who sees this horse in real life is instantly enamored with him.  I remember seeing him for the first time, through the TV, in the paddock before the Saratoga Special last August and instantly, I was struck.  It was like love at first sight, so I must say this horse already infected me with Pretty Pony Syndrome.  The bay colt has three tall, white socks and a very distinctive and charming face that features a large white blaze.  Physically, he looks more like a statue than a racehorse.  He also has very human-like eyes which tend to make you trust that he knows exactly what he’s doing.  His trainer, Michael Matz, campaigned another very gorgeous horse not long ago; 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro.

 

Dullahan

Dullahan
Do you remember Mine That Bird, the scrawny, plain, and somewhat unimpressive-looking winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby?  Meet his little brother who is his opposite.  The two horses, who share the same mother but different fathers, were both talented racehorses but that’s where the comparisons stop.  Dullahan is tall, chestnut, and handsome, the complete opposite of his average-looking brother.  A white blaze runs down his large face.  His trainer, Dale Romans, knows how to keep his horses looking good and Dullahan is no exception.  The muscular colt is sure to draw a lot of attention when he steps on the track in front of the Churchill crowd on Saturday.

 

Creative Cause

Creative Cause
Creative Cause brings his own unique flavor to the Kentucky Derby.  The smoky gray colt, who is pretty enough on his own, is always decked out in blue, which flatters him immensely.  Throughout his career, blue leg wraps, a blue shadow-roll, a blue bridle, and even blue blinkers have all adorned the handsome colt, making him an easy one to spot in the post parade.  Unlike the extra-light Hansen, Creative Cause puts a different spin on his gray coat.  His dark mane and tail sharply differ from Hansen’s white ones.  Creative Cause is certainly one colt just waiting to contaminate observers with Pretty Pony Syndrome as he passes by.

Alpha

Alpha
Alpha, who can be an enigma occasionally, certainly has one thing going for him at all times; beauty.  The son of Bernardini (a very striking horse as well who tends to sire good looking sons and daughters) has a certain, almost feminine quality about him.  He has an elegant and beautiful face, with refined features almost like an Arabian horse.  He missed some time training recently, and some were worried he wouldn’t be fit enough for the Derby.  If recent photos and videos prove anything, it’s that this jaw-dropper is plenty fit and ready to roll Saturday.

Although these are the top five best looking horses this year, in my opinion, the rest of the Derby field is still composed of some handsome horses.  Just because I have warned you about these five stunning colts, don’t get surprised by another.  The pageantry of the Derby knows no bounds and even the horses get involved.  Don’t be caught off guard by the gorgeous contingent set to run in the 2012 Run For The Roses.  Prepare yourself and try to avoid coming down with an undeniable case of Pretty Pony Syndrome!!

Bet the 2012 Kentucky Derby Online

Playing the Kentucky Derby doesn’t mean you have to go the track. In fact, you can play the races will all the comforts of home at your fingers. Let’s take a look at some of the best online horse betting establishments.

TwinSpires

Twinspires.com is owned by Churchill Downs Incorporated. They are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker CHDN. They have an excellent list of available tracks which includes Churchill Downs, Saratoga, Keeneland, Santa Anita, Del Mar, Belmont Park, Gulfstream Park and many more.

Twinspires.com has many easy deposit options like MasterCardVisa, wire transfer and Greendot MoneyPak. They offer free BRISnet past performances for all races which is something I use personally and love. Withdrawing money is easy via ACH straight to your bank account, check to your mailbox or visiting Churchill Downs or an affiliated track and picking up your winnings personally.

Other features included for players at Twinspires.com is the ability to watch live video of almost any race in America. Betting can be done online and via a telephone operator. Another cool way to bet is using your mobile phone such as an Android or iPhone. I’ve done this on many occasions. It makes wagering very easy and accessible.

New customers signing up through this site will get a $100 sign up bonus, so what are you waiting for? Click the banner above to check them out.

468x60 - TC 150 Bonus
The TVG website has the easiest wagering platform on the internet. It is very easy to make a bet and I actually prefer that aspect of the site to the Twin Spires version. The free handicapping information provided is invaluable. They give free power figures which have been used to hit enormous exotic wagers ($2,000+) by myself and others.

Bets can be made on over 150 tracks at TVG. Plenty of great incentives are available. For instance, new accounts are currently eligible for three free months. Sign up bonuses vary from time to time, but you can be sure to get a great deal for taking your wagering dollars to TVG!

Both of these sites are must haves for any horse player. Those planning to bet the Kentucky Derby would be remiss not to try both. With such lucrative sign up bonuses you have nothing to lose!

Kentucky Derby Favorite: Bodemeister

Bodemeister

Bodemeister

**Learn about ALL of the 2012 contenders by getting our Kentucky Derby Guide**

Bodemeister

(Starts: 4 Win: 2 Place: 2 Show: 0 Earnings: $)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike Smith

THE CONNECTIONS: It’s hard to top the connections Bodemeister brings with him to Kentucky. Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbies and nine Triple Crown races over his illustrious career. Mike Smith has had a renaissance since moving his tack from New York to Southern California, he has a Derby win on Giacomo and has taken two of the last three Breeders’ Cup Classics riding Zenyatta and Drosselmeyer.

THE HORSE: Bodemeister comes into the 2012 Kentucky Derby with just four starts. He is going up against a great deal of history as he tries to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without racing as a two-year-old. But, Bodemeister could very well be the horse to break this trend. Keep in mind that historical Derby trends have been falling seemingly every year recently, Animal Kingdom won off of a six week layoff and Super Saver won with just two three-year-old prep races, so why shouldn’t the unraced at two bugaboo fall as well?

On sheer talent, it’s hard to make much of a case against Bodemeister. After narrowly missing in his debut, Bodemeister came back at one mile to break his maiden by 9 ¼ lengths over highly regarded Welterweight. He then went to the Grade II Sane Felipe and just missed knocking off Creative Cause in only his third start before absolutely trouncing a solid field in the Arkansas Derby by a stunning 9 ½ lengths. He will have to show that he can rate his early speed and his seasoning will be questioned, but on talent alone it is very hard to argue against Bodemeister as a very serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby.

THE PEDIGREE: Bodemeister sports a pedigree that suggests he should be able to get the 10 furlongs on Saturday. His sire, Empire Maker, is a great stamina source a Derby runner-up before winning the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes. Bodemeister’s dam side features a number of stamina influences like Roberto and A.P. Indy so there shouldn’t be too much trouble in handling the 10 furlong distance. While the family has produced some high caliber sprinters, it is clear that Bodemeister has improved with additional ground, and there is no reason to think 10 furlongs will be beyond his scope.

CONCLUSION: Bodemeister deserves to be favored in the 2012 Kentucky Derby. The main obstacles he must overcome are his relative lack of seasoning and the potential hot pace that he will be close to. But, every horse in the Derby has questions to answer, and with Bodemeister you are getting a horse that is tremendously talented, with excellent connections and a pedigree suited for the distance.

PEDIGREE GRADE: A

OVERALL GRADE: A+

FAIR ODDS: 4-1

**Learn about ALL of the 2012 contenders by getting our Kentucky Derby Guide**

Kentucky Derby Contender: Liaison

Liaison

Liaison

by Chelsey Burris

**Learn about ALL of the 2012 contenders by getting our Kentucky Derby Guide**

Liaison

(Starts: 7 Win: 3 Place: 0 Show: 1 Earnings: $487,560)

Trainer: Bob Baffert (21.8%)

Jockey: Martin Garcia (15.2%)

THE CONNECTIONS: Liaison is one of two entrants for Hall Of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in the 2012 Kentucky Derby (the other of course being Bodemeister.)  They always say it’s “the other Baffert” that gets you, so perhaps Liaison playing second-fiddle to Bodemeister will be a blessing in disguise in the Derby.  Baffert knows the drill at Churchill Downs.  The 59-year-old trainer has conditioned three Kentucky Derby winners: Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, and War Emblem in 2002.  He has also won 5 Preakness Stakes and 1 Belmont as well as numerous other Grade 1 events.  He was the Eclipse Award winning trainer three years in a row between 1997 and 1999.  The usually quick-witted and funny trainer had a life-changing experience recently.  While in Dubai to watch one of his horses compete in the Dubai World Cup in March, the Hall of Famer suffered a serious heart attack.  He seems to have obtained a new lease on life, and is ready to return to one of horseracing’s greatest venues to attempt to capture the coveted Kentucky Derby trophy yet again.

Jockey Martin Garcia is often trainer Bob Baffert’s go-to rider.  The 28-year-old jockey is based in southern California, but was originally from Mexico.  From very humble beginnings, Garcia came to America in 2003 to work at a deli before being introduced to former jockey Mark Hanna.  A whirlwind of activity followed, and Garcia ended up exercising horses in the morning as well as hot-walking them.  Recognizing that he had found his calling, Garcia made it his mission to become a jockey.  He won his first race in August 2005.  He has risen through the ranks since, and Bob Baffert has been instrumental to his success.  Arguably the two most talented horses he has sat on so far, 2010 Preakness and Haskell winner Lookin At Lucky and 2011 Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty were both from the Baffert barn.  The dynamic duo will be looking for more success in Louisville with Liaison on May 5.

THE HORSE: After selling for $290,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale, big things were expected from Liaison, and he became quite popular as a juvenile.  After breaking his maiden in his 2nd start, he stepped up to stakes company, taking the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood Park over Rousing Sermon.  The two renewed their rivalry in December in the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity, where Liaison showed his fighting spirit to repel the charge of Rousing Sermon near the wire.  It is rare to see a young horse show the grit and determination that defined Liaison’s 2-year-old campaign.

Everyone expected Liaison to continue to dominate racing in California as a 3-year-old, but unfortunately that hasn’t been the case.  In his first start of the year, the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, bad luck struck the colt as he clipped heels with another runner in the stretch, causing him to dump jockey Rafael Bejarano and head for the finish line solo.  He went to the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes next, but managed only 4th.  In his most recent start, the dark brown colt ran 6th in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  What is the cause of his loss of form in 2012?  All of his starts this year have come on Santa Anita’s main track, which trainer Bob Baffert has commented may not have been to Liaison’s liking.  He is thriving at Churchill Downs, where he turned in a very impressive workout April 30.

THE PEDIGREE:  Liaison’s sire is Indian Charlie, the 1998 Santa Anita Derby winner for trainer (you guessed it) Bob Baffert.  This stallion stood at Airdrie Stud until his death in December 2011.  Perhaps his most famous offspring is 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old male Uncle Mo.  Indian Charlie also sired Champions Indian Blessing and Fleet Indian in America, as well as Indian Apple Is in Canada.  It is often debated if Indian Charlie can truly sire horses that can get the Derby distance.  However, Indian Charlie himself finished 3rd in the 1998 Run For The Roses, and his daughter Fleet Indian won the 1 1/4 miles Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes in 2006, and took down a Grade 2 at the same distance as well.  Liaison will be complimented by the female side of his family, which is loaded with stamina.  His dam, Galloping Gal is by Victory Gallop.  In a somewhat strange twist, Victory Gallop makes an appearance (keep in mind this horse stopped Bob Baffert’s Real Quiet from winning the 1998 Triple Crown by beating him by a mere yet heartbreaking nose in the Belmont Stakes.)  Coming full-circle, Baffert is now hoping some of that endurance has been passed down to Liaison from his grandfather.

CONCLUSION: Although Liaison isn’t usually mentioned in the same breath as the favorites this year, he is a very nice horse in his own right.  His 2012 campaign has been lackluster, but if the Santa Anita surface was the only thinking slowing him down and he returns to his juvenile form Derby day, watch out.  At long odds, he could show the classy determination that made him a force to be reckoned with in such races as the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity.  Who’s to say he couldn’t give trainer Bob Baffert his 4th Kentucky Derby win?

PEDIGREE GRADE: B

OVERALL GRADE: C

FAIR ODDS: 30-1

 

 **Learn about ALL of the 2012 contenders by getting our Kentucky Derby Guide**

The Daily Derby News Blitz – May 2, 2012

The field has officially been set for the 138th Kentucky Derby!  At Churchill Downs today, the post positions for the 20 Derby entrants (as well as one also-eligible runner) were drawn in front of their connections, who cringed or applauded at the various outcomes.  Post positions can be a huge factor in the success of horses in the Run For The Roses.  The full field, with morning-line odds, jockeys, and trainers follows:
1. Daddy Long Legs, 30-1, Colm O’Donoghue, Aiden O’Brien
2. Optimizer, 50-1, Jon Court, D. Wayne Lukas
3. Take Charge Indy, 15-1, Calvin Borel, Patrick Byrne
4. Union Rags, 9-2, Julien Leparoux, Michael Matz
5. Dullahan, 8-1, Kent Desormeaux, Dale Romans
6. Bodemeister, 4-1, Mike Smith, Bob Baffert
7. Rousing Sermon, 50-1, Jose Lezcano, Jerry Hollendorfer
8. Creative Cause, 12-1, Joel Rosario, Mike Harrington
9. Trinniberg, 50-1, Willie Martinez, Bisnath Parboo
10. Daddy Nose Best, 15-1, Garrett Gomez, Steve Asmussen
11. Alpha, 15-1, Rajiv Maragh, Kiaran McLaughlin
12. Prospective, 30-1, Luis Contreras, Mark Casse
13. Went The Day Well, 20-1, John Velasquez, Graham Motion
14. Hansen, 10-1, Ramon Dominguez, Mike Maker
15. Gemologist, 6-1, Javier Castellano, Todd Pletcher
16. El Padrino, 20-1, Rafael Bejarano, Todd Pletcher
17. Done Talking, 50-1, Sheldon Russell, Hamilton Smith
18. Sabercat, 30-1, Corey Nakatani, Steve Asmussen
19. I’ll Have Another, 12-1, Mario Guiterrez, Doug O’Neil
20. Liaison, 50-1, Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert
AE 21. My Adonis, Elvis Trujillo, Kelly Breen

So who drew the best and who drew the worst?  Typically, horses don’t want the 1 post or the 20 post, and this year long shots drew both of these holes.  The horse that perhaps drew the worst post personally is Alpha in post 11.  The son of Bernardini has been known to have gate issues in the past, and in the Derby, the first two horses to load are the #1 and the #11.  This means Alpha will have to stand in the gate for quite a while May 5 in front of the huge Churchill crowd as the rest of the field loads.  Despite all his schooling in the gate, the tension could shake him up a bit.

Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Bodemeister was installed as the 4-1 morning-line favorite.  He and jockey Mike Smith will have an interesting task ahead of them within seconds of breaking from the gate on Saturday.  Bodemeister is a front-runner, meaning he likes to be on or near the lead in races.  The other two speediest horses in the race, Trinniberg (post 9) and Hansen (post 14) are both to his outside, meaning Bodemeister may be expected to set the tempo from post 6.  Trainer Bob Baffert wasn’t particularly pleased with the spots his two runners drew, but knew he had to accept them.  Liaison is way out in post 20, while Bodemeister’s post 6 is somewhat disadvantageous when you realize the other frontrunners are drawn to his outside.  However, Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbies, and knows you need luck in the running of the race rather than the post position draw.  He even joked about the dreaded one hole and his recent heart attack, saying he’d prefer to get three stents in his heart than break from post 1 again (like he did in 2010 with the rather unlucky Lookin At Lucky, who had a horrible trip from the inside spot that year.)

Union Rags, the 2nd choice at 9-2, will try to put his Florida Derby (G1) loss last time out behind him as he breaks from post 4 with Julien Leparoux.  Although the big horse would have probably been better suited to a spot further out, post 4 should be just fine, particularly if he can settle in behind Bodemeister and the other speed horses.  Trainer Michael Matz was relatively upbeat and positive about his talented colt drawing the #4 spot, but did hint that he wished he had been a little farther away from the rail.

The connections of Hansen let out a yelp of excitement when Daddy Long Legs drew post 1.  This was because the final two available posts for the Derby were posts 14 and post 1.  Post 1 tends to be the most dreaded starting gate of all, so Hansen’s entourage didn’t want their Champion 2-Year-Old Male to have to break from the rail.  Post 14 is a great spot for the nearly white colt to start.  It is right where the gap is between the main gate and the auxiliary gate used for the Derby, meaning Hansen will have a little more room to maneuver around than the average Derby starter.  Plus, he drew outside the other two speed horses (Bodemeister and Trinniberg) so jockey Ramon Dominguez can place the fleet-footed colt wherever he wishes in the run into the first turn.

At 12-1, Creative Cause looks intriguing breaking from post 8, which has produced several Derby winners recently including Barbaro in 2006 and Mine That Bird in 2009.  The Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up is a little under the radar with all the other talented contenders in the field this year, but don’t forget that he finished 3rd to Hansen and Union Rags at Churchill Downs last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).  The three will renew this rivalry Saturday with, unbelievably, six other runners from last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile!  Besides the top three finishers, the horses that finished 4th (Dullahan), 5th (Take Charge Indy), 8th (Optimizer), 11th (Alpha), 12th (Daddy Long Legs), and 13th (Prospective) will all return to Churchill Downs to compete in the biggest race for 3-year-olds.  It’s almost as if this year’s Kentucky Derby is a rematch of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which is the top race for 2-year-old males.  It is amazing that so many of last year’s Breeders’ Cup runners have progressed into the rich and gifted Derby field of 2012.

Wood Memorial (G1) winner Gemologist drew a nice post in #15.  He will be on the other side of the gap between the main and auxiliary gates, meaning he and Hansen will both have extra space right after the break.  The only undefeated horse in the field this year, Gemologist will attempt to be the 2nd Kentucky Derby winner for trainer Todd Pletcher, who won the race in 2010 with Super Saver.  Pletcher had commented earlier in the day that he preferred an outside post for Gemologist but an inside one for El Padrino.  He got his wish with Gemologist in post 15, but El Padrino coming from post 16 isn’t quite what he had in mind.

Take Charge Indy, who upset the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his most recent start, will break one post inside of Union Rags.  When the two met last time, Union Rags left a discouraged 3rd while Take Charge Indy posed in the winner’s circle at Gulfstream.  Post 3 isn’t particularly a great spot to start from, but keep in mind jockey Calvin Borel will be aboard the son of A.P. Indy in the Run For The Roses.  Nicknamed Calvin “Bo-Rail” due to his love of running horses up the inside of the track, it was clear Take Charge Indy would make his way to the rail at some point during the race.  He is already fairly close to Calvin’s favorite spot, and “Bo-Rail” has been the winning rider in three Kentucky Derbies recently (in 2007 with Street Sense, 2009 with Mine That Bird, and 2010 with Super Saver.)

Speaking of Mine That Bird, who wore the roses over his shoulders after the 2009 edition of the Kentucky Derby, his half-brother Dullahan is looking to make winning the Derby a family tradition.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux, who won the Derby aboard Big Brown in 2008 as well as twice before, will hope to pilot his way back into the winner’s circle as they break from post 5.

I’ll Have Another, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in his most recent start, was assigned post 19.  His trainer, Doug O’Neil commented that it wasn’t the best spot but it was certainly better than the rail.  He will attempt to settle and save ground before the first turn.

Daddy Nose Best, who has been flying somewhat under the radar despite training very impressively at Churchill recently, drew post 10.  The Steve Asmussen trainee, who was set at 15-1 on the morning-line, will try not to get shuffled too far back in the big field.  The other runner from the Asmussen barn, Sabercat, will break from post 18.

The connections of Went The Day Well are hoping post 13 will prove to be a lucky number for them.  The owner, trainer, jockey combination of Team Valor International, Graham Motion, and John Velazquez won the Kentucky Derby last year with Animal Kingdom.  The last time the same connections won the Derby two years in a row was way back in 1972 and 1973 with Riva Ridge and Secretariat.

Now that the post positions have been drawn, who do you like?  Leave us a comment and let us know!

Bob Baffert & Todd Pletcher lead 2012 Kentucky Derby charge

Bob Baffert & Todd Pletcher

Bob Baffert & Todd Pletcher

by Robert Boswell

Back on March 29th we covered the three Mikes—Matz, Maker, and Harrington—and their unlikely, simultaneous positions at the top of the 3-year-old horse racing world (see story here). But a month later, things have settled down and order has been restored. Perennial division leaders Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert went from nowhere to be found, to having at least one very solid shot apiece at crossing the wire first on Saturday and renewing their East Coast/West Coast rivalry yet again.

At 59 years of age, Baffert hails from a different generation of trainers than Pletcher, who will be 45 shortly after the conclusion of this year’s Triple Crown. Though it seems like he brings California’s best hope to Churchill every May, the most recent of Baffert’s three Kentucky Derby (GI) victories came in 2002 with War Emblem. Each time a Baffert charge has worn the roses, he has also gone on to wear the Black-Eyed Susans. None of the three—he won consecutive runnings in ’97 and ’98 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet, respectively—was able to stay the mile-and-a-half trip of the Belmont and complete the Triple Crown. He came close enough to taste it in ’98, but Victory Gallop nabbed Real Quiet in the final stride to crush the hopes of virtually everyone involved in racing in any capacity, except for Victory Gallop’s connections.

Similarly to Baffert, Pletcher won his first Kentucky Derby at 43, but the difference is Super Saver in 2010 is his only win to date. He saddled 23 losers before he finally got a win with his 24th. It’s interesting to note that he also trained heavy favorite Eskendereya that year, but the colt was retired a week before the big race due to a leg injury. Add that to the defections of Uncle Mo last year and Algorithms this year, and that makes three straight years that Pletcher has lost his most promising 3-year-old before the first Saturday in May.

Pletcher’s best hope this year lies with undefeated Gemologist, who looked a charging Alpha in the eye late in the stretch and re-rallied to take the Wood Memorial (GI) in his last start. Many looked on with furrowed brows when Gemologist was entered in an Allowance race at a mile for his 2012 debut, after capping his 2-year-old campaign with a victory over Churchill’s main track in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII). He ended up winning in impressive fashion and with all the graded stakes earnings eggs in one basket, Gemologist took the Wood in his final prep. The only colt to enter the race undefeated, Gemologist will likely be third choice, while Union Rags and Bodemeister vie for favoritism.

Until three weeks ago, the leading horse in Bob Baffert’s stable was Secret Circle. After winning the inaugural Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Sprint, the son of Eddington won the first two legs of the Oaklawn 3-year-old series, the Southwest (GIII) and the Rebel (GII). He took a back seat in the Arkansas Derby (GI) to barn mate Bodemeister, who ran the field off their feet in front-running style. Suddenly, Baffert goes from under the radar to possible favorite with the very talented and lightly-raced Bodemeister.  The colt by Empire Maker has raced four times, all since the start of the year, which means he will attempt to be the first Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 to not have raced at 2. At the end of March is unrecognizable chaos with abnormal names in front. A few short weeks and a few GI preps later, we can all breathe more easily, as two of the top three betting choices will belong to Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher.

The Daily Derby News Blitz – May 1, 2012

 

Mark Valeski is officially out of Derby consideration

The first day of May is an exciting one if you’re a fan of horseracing, because you know the first Saturday in May can’t be far off.  The 138th Kentucky Derby is only four days away!  Tomorrow the field will be set.

The big news of the day is that Mark Valeski‘s connections decided the water was too deep for their colt, and have withdrawn him from Derby consideration.  With the talent-laden 3-year-old crop this year, it was probably a wise choice for the G2 Louisiana Derby runner-up.  His trainer, Larry Jones, was quoted as saying, “This is a very deep field. We feel like we belong with them, but there’s going to be a horse that runs 15th that’s a very good horse. It’s not like you just go out there and hope that if Union Rags gets a bad trip then we win. What with Gemologist, Bodemeister, Alpha, Take Charge Indy, somebody’s going to get a good trip other than just, say, Mark Valeski.”  The colt will now be pointed for the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, which could be used as a launching pad to run in the Belmont Stakes.  Mark Valeski’s defection opened the door for Optimizer, who was sitting at number 21 on the graded stakes earnings list.

Alpha arrived at Churchill Downs yesterday.  The handsome son of Bernardini got reacquainted with the track he ran on last year in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he finished 11th.  Hopefully he’ll have better luck this time when he runs around the oval under the Twin Spires.  Today, he jogged 1 3/8 miles on the track.  The Wood Memorial (G1) runner-up has had several setbacks recently, including cuts to his legs and a nagging infection.  He seems to be in good shape currently, and ready to run on Saturday.  He will school in the gate tomorrow.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is hoping the colt, who used to be very rowdy in the gate, has finally put his issues behind him before the biggest race of his career.

Today, Todd Pletcher’s duo Gemologist and El Padrino arrived at Churchill.  Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Gemologist is already familiar with the surface, where the undefeated colt won two races.  El Padrino, winner of the G2 Risen Star Stakes and 4th in the Florida Derby in his most recent start, has never raced at Churchill.  He has a couple days to gallop over the surface before Derby day though.

Rousing Sermon turned in what is likely the final work for a Derby contender for 2012.  He traveled over the Churchill surface, stopping the clock in 1:00.40 for 5 furlongs.  The son of Lucky Pulpit pleased his trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, with the work.  The breeze was the 2nd fastest of 18 for the day.

The field for the Kentucky Oaks was set today.  The ladies answer to the Kentucky Derby features 14 sophomore fillies, plus an also-eligible this year.  On Fire Baby and Grace Hall, two of the favorites, drew posts 1 and 2 respectively.  On Fire Baby is fresh off a score in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes.  The gray daughter of Smoke Glacken loves Churchill Downs, where she won both the G2 Pocahontas Stakes and G2 Golden Rod Stakes last fall.  Joe Johnson has the mount in the Oaks.  Grace Hall, runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies to My Miss Aurelia, enters the Oaks off a win in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Oaks last time out.  The daughter of Empire Maker has never finished worse than 2nd in her 6 lifetime starts (which included a Grade 1 win as a juvenile.)  A few long shots merit a second look in the Oaks field including Hard Not To Like at 20-1 on the morning line.  The daughter of Hard Spun defeated males as a juvenile in stakes company.  In her most recent start, she was 2nd in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland.  Progeny of Hard Spun tend to flourish on sloppy tracks, and with possible rain forecast for Louisville, don’t be surprised if this filly runs a big one.  Trainer Larry Jones sends out G2 Fair Grounds Oaks winner Believe You Can.  The daughter of Proud Citizen no doubt stirs up memoires of 2008 for Jones, when he won the Kentucky Oaks with Proud Spell (another daughter of Proud Citizen).  Broadway’s Alibi, a filly from the barn of Todd Pletcher, is riding a four race win-streak into the Oaks.
The full field, with morning-line odds, jockeys, and trainers, is listed below:
1. On Fire Baby, 4-1, Joe Johnson, G. Hartlage
2. Grace Hall, 5-1, Javier Castellano, T. Dutrow
3. Summer Applause, 15-1, Garrett Gomez, B. Calhoun
4. Eden’s Moon, 12-1, Martin Garcia, B. Baffert
5. Hard Not To Like, 20-1, Robby Albarado, G. Cox
6. Broadway’s Alibi, 4-1, John Velasquez, T. Pletcher
7. Sacristy, 50-1, Mike Smith, W. Catalano
8. Jemima’s Pearl, 10-1, Joe Talamo, B. Baffert
9. Believe You Can, 10-1, Rosie Napravnik, L. Jones
10. And Why Not, 15-1, Julien Leparoux, M. Matz
11. Kalovy Vary, 20-1, James Graham, G. Arnold II
12. Colonial Empress, 50-1, Corey Nakatani, D. W. Lukas
13. Amie’s Dini, 10-2, Jon Court, R. Moquett
14. Yara, 30-1, Jesus Castanon, J. Garoffalo
AE 15. Oaks Lily, 50-1, Rafael Bejarano, T. Hills

It looks like there is the possibility for a sloppy track at Churchill on Saturday.  That being said, several Derby horses have had experience on wet tracks.  El Padrino broke his maiden on a wet track, and also won an allowance over the surface.  That same allowance featured Take Charge Indy, who was 2nd that day.  Gemologist won an allowance at Gulfstream, Hansen won the Gotham (G3) (where Done Talking ran 10th), and I’ll Have Another finished 6th in the G1 Hopeful Stakes, which were all sloppy or muddy sealed tracks.  Sabercat won a stakes race at Monmouth in the slop, but finished fourth in his debut in the mud.  Union Rags won the Saratoga Special Stakes over a sloppy/sealed surface by over 7 lengths, earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure.  Trinniberg finished 5th in the Saratoga Special that Union Rags won, and he also finished 2nd in the slop in the Grade 1 Hopeful.

That’s all for today.  Check back tomorrow and everyday as we count down to the 2012 Run For The Roses.  Who do you like?  Leave us a comment and let us know!

Kentucky Derby Contender: Creative Cause

 **Learn about ALL of the 2012 contenders by getting our Kentucky Derby Guide**

Creative Cause

(Starts: 8 Win: 4 Place: 2 Show: 2 Earnings: $869,000)

Trainer: Mike Harrington (10.6%)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (20.7%)

THE CONNECTIONS: Creative Cause is trained by former veterinarian Mike Harrington. Never seen without his trademark cowboy hat, Harrington has conditioned top runners like Grade I Hollywood Futurity winner Swiss Yodeler and Grade II Norfolk Stakes winner Buck Trout. Both were owned by Creative’s Cause’s owner, Heinz Steinmann.

Jockey Joel Rosario is a relatively new rider from the Dominican Republic that has quickly surged to the top of the nation’s most competitive riding colony in southern California. His best win came aboard Dancing in Silks at huge odds in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. In his first Kentucky Derby, 2010, he was fourth at astronomical odds aboard Make Music For Me.

THE HORSE: Creative Cause quickly showed us that he would be a force as a sophomore when he crushed the competition in his Hollywood Park debut. His best run as a juvenile came in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes where he was an easy winner over Grade I Del Mar Futurity winner Drill. He ended the year with a good third place finish in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Creative Cause’s 2012 campaign began with a surprising defeat in the Grade II San Vicente Stakes. That race proved too short at seven furlongs and he rebounded with a winning effort in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes that is among the best of any horse this year. His last race, the Santa Anita Derby, saw him surge up the rail to just miss for the win.

THE PEDIGREE:  Sire Giant’s Causeway stands for $85,000 at America’s best breeding operation, Ashford Stud. He was a multiple Group I winning son of Storm Cat that has thrown horses more than capable of racing at ten furlongs. His best progeny include Grade I Santa Anita Handicap winner Heatseeker and Grade I Wood Memorial champ Eskendereya. The dam, Dream of Summer, won the Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap. Her sire, Siberian Summer, won the Grade II Strub Stakes, which at that time was a ten furlong race. If Creative Cause does not win the Derby it will not be for a lack of stamina.

CONCLUSION: Creative Cause is a stalker that could benefit from things getting a bit too hectic on the front end. If he is still the same horse that won the San Felipe Stakes two starts ago then he will give his competition a big run for their money.

PEDIGREE GRADE: A

OVERALL GRADE: A

FAIR ODDS: 10-1

 **Learn about ALL of the 2012 contenders by getting our Kentucky Derby Guide**

The Daily Derby News Blitz – April 30, 2012

  • Louisiana Derby second place finisher Mark Valeski worked five furlongs in 1:00.20 at Churchill Downs. Trainer Larry Jones was non-committal about the Kentucky Derby, saying that he would wait until Wednesday morning to make a decision about running.
  • San Felipe Stakes winner Creative Cause was sent through four furlongs in :47.80 for trainer Mike Harrington. The normally quiet conditioner was quick to call the work “perfect” and is eagerly anticipating the big race. Harrington says he hopes for a post between 8-12 and a quick pace to chase.
  • The Bob Baffert camp appears on the surface to be over the moon with the work of Grade 1 CashCall Futurity winner Liaison. The son of Indian Charlie covered five furlongs in 1:00.80 under jockey Martin Garcia. Baffert noted that he has looked more like a Derby horse than he ever has and that he will be competitive on Saturday. Liaison enters the Run for the Roses after three poor efforts as a sophomore, the latest being a sixth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby.
  • Stablemates Sabercat (:48.40) and Daddy Nose Best (:49.40) worked four furlongs for Steve Asmussen. He noted that Sabercat will have to run the best race of his life to win and that Daddy Nose Best is a confident horse moving well over the surface. Both will be moving from the back of the pack.
  • Bodemeister walked the shedrow Monday after a swift breeze in :59.60 on Sunday.Baffert says the son of Empire Maker will need a good draw and some racing luck to wear the Roses on Saturday.
  • Blue Grass Stakes victor Dullahan galloped 1 ½ miles under exercise rider Faustino Aguilar. The son of Even The Score will try to make history as the first half-sibling of a previous Derby winner to take the race. His half brother, Mine That Bird, won in 2009. The trainer of that horse, Chip Woolley, visited Dullahan on the backstretch to wish him luck.
  • The wagering menu for the Kentucky Oaks and Derby has been announced.
  • KENTUCKY OAKS AND DERBY DAY WAGERING FORMATS:
    –Minimum $2 Win, Place, Show (all races)
    –$1 Exactas (all races)
    –50-cent Trifectas (all races with five or more betting interests)
    –$1 Superfectas (all races with six or more betting interests)
    –$1 Super Hi-5 on Kentucky Oaks (Race 11) and Kentucky Derby (Race 11) races
    –Rolling $1 Doubles
    –Rolling 50-cent Pick 3s
    –50-cent Pick 4s on Races 2-5, 4-7 & 8-11 both days, plus an additional Pick 4 on Races 10-13 on Kentucky Derby Day
    –50-cent Pick 5 on Races 7-11
    $2 TwinSpires.com Guaranteed Pick 6 on Races 6-11 ($200,000 on Oaks Day, $500,000 on Derby Day)
    –Special $1 Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double
    –Special 50-cent Kentucky Oaks/Woodford Reserve Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby Pick 3
    –On-track parlay wagering available on up to six races on all Win, Place and/or Show pools

Need help betting the Kentucky Derby? Check out our Guide and Picks!