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2011 Preakness conclusions

May 23, 2011 By 1 Comment

In the last hundred yards of the Preakness Stakes I really believed my top pick, Animal Kingdom, would gun down the front running Shackleford. It was not to be. Shackleford, the son of Forestry, put together a winning trip by sitting right behind pace setter Flashpoint and taking the lead just before the field turned for home.

Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom closed hard down the lane, but a combination of dirt to the face and being too far back hindered his chances. That is to take nothing away from the winner though. Shackleford ran huge and Jesus Castanon put an excellent ride on him. Astrology improved and finished third under Mike Smith. I have a feeling all three of these colts will be heard from later on this year.

Shackleford is much better than most of us realized. He can rate or be on the lead and so far it doesn’t appear he will have distance limitations despite what his breeding indicates. That isn’t to say he can make the 12 furlong trip of the Belmont Stakes, but races like the Haskell Invitational should be well within reach.

Florida Derby winner Dialed In was last of 14 turning for home, but was able to finish fourth about four lengths behind the winner. I was high on this colt until he ran so poorly in the Kentucky Derby. Clearly he has loads of talent, but if he can’t learn to break more alertly and race closer to the field he will never be a major contender.

I’m a huge Julien Leparoux fan and I might even say he is my favorite jockey, but I would make a rider change if the colt were mine. He might respond better to a rider like Rafael Bejarano, Mike Smith or Garrett Gomez. It will be interesting to see what trainer Nick Zito changes.

A quote from winning trainer Dale Romans made me smirk. I can’t find that quote, but it said something along the lines of someone from Taylor Made Farm offering him meals for life at a restaurant I hadn’t heard of if the trainer could win a Grade 1 race with a progeny of Forestry. Well, Dale Romans isn’t exactly a thin guy. Have fun footing that bill!

Shackleford is already confirmed for the Preakness as is Animal Kingdom. I have a feeling that race will be even better than this one. Throw in Kentucky Derby runner up Nehro and it will make for an incredible betting race. I’m already counting down the days.

 

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2011 Preakness Stakes Preview

May 20, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The 2011 Preakness Stakes is finally here. Let’s take a quick look at the entrants.

#1 Astrology (A.P. Indy x Quiet Eclipse by Quiet American) Love the way he is coming into the race. Plenty of talent and the works are strong for top notch connections. Don’t count him out at a price.

#2 Norman Asbjornson (Real Quiet x Merryland Missy by Citidancer) Fringe contender would be a big surprise, but he isn’t completely hopeless. Third off the shelf means he could improve.

#3 King Congie (Badge of Silver x Wise Ending by End Sweep) Certainly would make for a great story in memory of the late Congie Devito. Can he handle the dirt?

#4 Flashpoint (Pomeroy x Two Punch Lil by Two Punch) Freaked to win the Hutcheson before flopping in the Florida Derby. That race was a learning experience for him. He should perform better, but I’m not sure he can handle the distance. Will be tough if he can.

#5 Shackleford (Forestry x Oatsee by Unbridled) Could have a tougher time on the lead here, but he has proved he belongs with these colts. Pimlico tends to favor speed which could work to his advantage.

#6 Sway Away (Afleet Alex x Seattle Shimmer by Seattle Slew) Looked great making a move to the lead in the Arkansas Derby, but hung once he got there. New rider Garrett Gomez will have to time his ride up perfectly.

#7 Midnight Interlude (War Chant x Midnight Kiss by Groom Dancer) I was skeptical about him in the Kentucky Derby and I still am. He beat a weak field in the Santa Anita Derby.

#8 Dance City (City Zip x Ballet Colony by Pleasant Colony) Can’t discount anything coming from the Pletcher barn, but if things get too hot up front he will have trouble holding on. That is, if he ever gets to the front.

#9 Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno x Ponche de Leona by Ponche) I’m a believer after his last run. He will only get better from here on out.

#10 Dialed In (Mineshaft x Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat) Had nothing to chase in the Kentucky Derby so we can throw that race out. Will he close this time? Only one way to find out, but with Nick Zito and Julien Leparoux involved you have to consider him.

#11 Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux x Dalicia by Acatengo) Kentucky Derby winner made plenty of sense last out and should not have been such long odds. He wont be overlooked again.

#12 Isn’t He Perfect (Pleasantly Perfect x Reciclada by Rictorious) Bred to love the distance, but just doesn’t appear classy enough to impact the outcome of this race.

#13 Concealed Identity (Smarty Jones x Richetta by Polish Numbers) His sire registered one of the best Preakness wins ever, but this gelding would have to run the race of his life to win. He does own a win over the track which is a plus.

#14 Mr. Common (Artie Schiller x Joustabout by Apalachee) His recent works are very sharp, but class is a question. John Sheriffs wouldn’t have him here if he didn’t think he could win and that is good enough for me.

To get our official 2011 Preakness picks which include exacta, trifecta, superfecta, pick 4 and pick 5 plays click the “Buy Now” button below.

Also, consider playing online at Twin Spires. It is the best online horse betting site around and I will be making my bets there this weekend.

Preakness Picks ($15)

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Astrology could be a live long shot for the Preakness Stakes

May 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Stonestreet Thoroughbred’s colt Astrology is ready to rock and roll for the Preakness Stakes after stretching his legs in a four furlong move which was clocked in :51.60 on Monday.

Regular visitors to this site know that I was high on his chances to make the Kentucky Derby and he was on my Kentucky Derby Contenders page for much of the winter before it became apparent that he wouldn’t make the race.

Astrology made his 2011 debut in the Sunland Derby where he was fairly close to a torrid pace and ended second behind Twice The Appeal. Not a bad effort considering he had been off so long and was tackling the distance of 9 furlongs for the first time.

After the Sunland Derby trainer Steve Asmussen sent the colt to Aqueduct for his next start in the Jerome Handicap where he looked done at the top of the stretch, but still finished second. The winner, Adios Charlie, is a very serious racehorse that came back to run a desperately close second in the Peter Pan Stakes. To me, it showed heart for Astrology to keep coming in the Jerome after it looked like he was defeated. He did it over a wet track too which is something he might encounter in the Preakness.

I love Astrology’s breeding. He is a son of A.P out of the Quiet American mare Quiet Eclipse. Recognize that cross? You should. It is the same one that 2006 Preakness Stakes and Travers Stakes winner Bernardini is bred on.

Not that looks mean much, but Astrology is one of the best looking colts of this crop that I can remember seeing. He is a strong colt and a good mover. He’s got heart as we saw Jerome and he showed last year he is plenty good enough to run with the big boys by finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club and winning the Iroquois Stakes.

Making his third start of the year in the Preakness means Astrology is ready to run the race of his life. He will need to do s0 to win. We know he can get the distance and we know he is classy enough. The connections are top notch and all systems are go. Look for Astrology to give them hell in the Preakness.

Click the “Buy Now” button the side of this page to get our official picks for the race.

 

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Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man prepare for Preakness as Nehro waits for Belmont

May 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment

All indications are that Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom is ready to run a monster race in the Preakness this weekend. Check out what owner Barry Irwin had to say on Facebook yesterday.

Animal Kingdom galloped on a wet dirt track this morning and relished the going. We keep throwing curves at this guy and just keeps knocking the ball out of the park. He may not even be human!

The son of Leroidesanimaux has not and will not work before the Preakness. This is a good move as he is completely fit after going a mile and a quarter so recently. I’m really excited to find out if he is the real deal in the Preakness.

A colt that did have a work is Mucho Macho Man.I have to admit I was skeptical about Mucho Macho Man, but his last out effort to be third in the Kentucky Derby has really won me over. The big hulking colt has a ton of heart and is only going to get better from here on out. The late foal wont even “really” turn three until next month.

This morning he worked four furlongs in :49 1/5 with splits of 12 2/5 and 24 1/5 while galloping out five furlongs in 1:03 3/5. Reports say he was evenly the whole way and the exercise rider said he wanted to do more. Folks, this colt might be sitting on a huge race for the Preakness on Saturday.

One horse that could be sitting on a big one, but we will never know, is Nehro. The son of Mineshaft is doing exceptionally well by all reports, but his connections are going to wait for the Belmont Stakes. This is a wise move as the Preakness would be his fourth race in eight weeks.

Nehro’s trainer Steve Asmussen once quoted the old saying “You get paid for what you do, but you pay for what you do.” Racing him in the Preakness might be sacrificing his future even if he runs well. Look for him next out in the Belmont Stakes.

One of the best things about this years Kentucky Derby is that the best three horses ran 1-2-3. I love when that happens. Now let’s see what happens at Pimlico.

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Bouncing back from a bad Kentucky Derby betting day for the Preakness Stakes

May 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment

This post is brought to you by guest author Chris Hernandez from Giving My Ten Cents.

“Animal Who?” I said this as Animal Kingdom crossed to line to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. I was nowhere close to finding a winner in the race, nor was I close in any of the exotics. With the Preakness Stakes this weekend, the need to reassess what went wrong is key to moving on from the race. Here are a few of the things I am doing to help myself reset to help put the Derby behind me, and hopefully they can work for you when you need to put a race in the rear view mirror.

Figure out what went wrong: Many handicappers move on from a race they were wrong about without figuring out why, yet this is an important thing to do to prevent yourself from making the same mistakes over and over in the future. Personally, I tossed the winner altogether because I figured he would not run well on dirt. I ignored the strong appearance he was making in the morning at Churchill Downs and the fact that his sire had been throwing dirt runners from other seemingly “turfy” pedigrees, such as multiple graded stakes winner on dirt Always a Princess, who’s dam was a turf horse through and through. This reminded me not to just automatically toss a horse on any surface they have never run on before without checking others from the sire/dam. For you, this could be as simple as making sure you have a good reason for not using a horse on a pick 4 “just because”.

The Derby is just one race: Now that the Derby is over, just treat it as another race. The build-up for it is massive, but once it is over, there is an empty spot in many of us. To fill that void, just remember that is only one race, and there is another race coming up soon to play on. Don’t overvalue the efforts of those coming out of the Derby just because they are coming out of it. Just because Dialed In came home sub :48 for the final half still doesn’t excuse the fact that he finished 8th. Conversely, just becase Animal Kingdom romped home doesn’t mean he is suddenly leaps and bounds above the rest of this group. Treat the Derby as just another race, nothing more

The most important thing to remember is…

FORGET EVERYTHING! Forget the fact that you did badly on whatever race you were completely wrong about and move on. That may sound contradictory to the first bit of advice I suggested, but one can learn from a mistake, then let the mistake go. If you let the race stay with you on and on, it will affect every part of your handicapping, especially when one of the runners you were wrong about is running in the race. I’ll need to let go of the Derby by the time I take a look at the Preakness PPs, otherwise my chances to cash are surely doomed.

So there is some advice on letting a poor job of handicapping go by the wayside. Hopefully it will get you passed a rough spot on the road to a big score.

**Click the “Buy Now” button below to get our Preakness Picks**

Preakness Stakes Full Card Picks ($15)

Also, consider checking out BetFirms picks.
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2011 Preakness betting picks

May 15, 2011 By 1 Comment

We told you last year we had your back in the Preakness Stakes and we came through. Lookin At Lucky took the race as our top selection. Can we do it in in 2011? You better believe we can.

Take a look at the success we have had leading up to the Preakness:

Peter Pan Stakes: Alternation ($9.40)

Southwest Stakes: Archarcharch ($31)

Florida Derby: Dialed In ($7.80)

Arkansas Derby: Archarcharch ($52.40)

Fountain of Youth Stakes: Soldat ($4.80 with $13.80 Exacta COLD)

We do very well with top class horses like those that will be racing at Pimlico. What better example than when we picked 5 winners in a row at Saratoga last year? The $2 parlay of those 5 races was worth $883. During that same meet we singled Blame in the Whitney to key a $2,564 Pick 4. We plan on doing just as well in the Preakness Stakes!

Among the races we will be handicapping for the Preakness Stakes weekend include the following.

  • Preakness Stakes
  • Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
  • McKay Turf Sprint
  • Dixie Stakes
  • Schaefer Stakes
  • Maryland Sprint
  • Gallorette Stakes
  • Chick Lang Stakes

For just $15 you can get our full card selections for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico along with select stakes races including the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on the preceding Friday. Picks will be sent via email before Friday morning. Click the “Buy Now” button below to join in. Don’t miss out!

For those wishing to bet the Preakness online, check out Twin Spires. Signing up through this site will get players a $100 sign up bonus. It is where I will bet betting this weekend!


 

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Animal Kingdom set to conquer Triple Crown after romping in Kentucky Derby

May 8, 2011 By Leave a Comment

I knew when I saw the crawling fractions that my pick, Dialed In, had little to no shot of winning the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Those slow fractions didn’t stop Animal Kingdom though as he proved to be much the best while rallying past Nehro in the stretch for a 2 3/4 length score. The son of Leroidesanimaux covered the 10 furlongs distance in 2:02.04 for jockey John Velazquez and trainer Graham Motion as a record crowd of 164,858 looked on.

The next step for Animal Kingdom will be the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes from Pimlico Racecourse.

“I’m pretty sure we’re going to do it, but I want to talk about it,” Irwin said.  “I’m a careful guy, so let’s see how he’s doing.  I think if you’ve got a horse that’s amazing, you can go for the Preakness.   But your regular, average Derby winner has a real tough time coming back.

Regardless of what Irwin or any of the connections say it is hard to think the colt wont wheel back in the Preakness Stakes. There is just too much money and glory in winning the race for them not to at least try. Barring illness or injury Animal Kingdom will be in the Preakness Stakes. He will have a big time chance to win the thing too.

There were only a handful of colts in the Kentucky Derby with big time potential. Animal Kingdom was one of them and he proved he will be one of the best colts in the country this year with his dominating finish. Make no mistake, although he paid $43 to win, he was easily the best horse.

How ironic that jockey John Velazquez would go from the best horse in Uncle Mo to the new king of the division in Animal Kingdom. You have to feel bad for Robby Albarado though. If you have been living in a cave and aren’t aware of the situation, Albarado was injured last week and the ownership of Animal Kingdom, Team Valor International, didn’t think he was up to riding. They were absolutely wrong though as Robby put in a great ride to win the Grade 1 Humana Distaff earlier in the day at Churchill.

I’m not happy. Barry Irwin decided he didn’t think I was fit to ride; he didn’t know my status or situation.

 

Both Johnny V and Team Valor say they will do something to make it right, but I don’t think they can. Taking a guy off a KentuckyDerby winner is something you can’t make up. I hope Animal Kingdom wins the Triple Crown, however unlikely that is, but it would be poetic justice to see Albarado nip them in the Belmont Stakes.

Speaking of the Belmont Stakes, Barry Irwin (owner of Team Valor), really likes the chances of his colt to do well there.

“The Belmont is the kind of race that this horse is bred to win, let’s face it,” Irwin said.

I’ll root for any Kentucky Derby winner not named Mine That Bird to complete the sweep. Let’s hope Animal Kingdom is the one.

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Bet the Kentucky Derby online

May 6, 2011 By Leave a Comment

I’ll be heading over to Turfway Park very soon to join some friends for the Kentucky Oaks card. It’s a tradition that we have done every year for the past 3 or 4 years. Tomorrow though, I will be wagering online.

Betting the Kentucky Derby online is a great idea. I can avoid a big crowd at my local track. The fridge is only a few steps away, as is the bathroom. Not just that, but I am in my “comfort zone” watching my big screen TV on the couch.

One of the best parts about this is the great promotions offered by ADW websites. Twin Spires is currently offering a $100 bonus to new players. Twin Spires is owned by Churchill Downs so they are perfectly safe. In fact, I would say they are the best online horse betting site in existence. They offer all kinds of great perks like free PPs and wager rewards. Live video for just about any track you can think of is available too.

Give them a look!

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Uncle Mo scratches from the Kentucky Derby

May 6, 2011 By Leave a Comment

I guess I was right not to like Kentucky Derby second choice Uncle Mo. The connections have decided not to run him.

Uncle Mo, winner of the last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile, suffered his first defeat last out in the Wood Memorial. It was determined after the race that he was suffering from a GI tract infection. It is truly a shame because he is arguably the fastest colt of this crop.

Owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher are now likely to target the Preakness Stakes instead. We will know more after a press conference scheduled for 15 minutes from now. Repole and Pletcher still have Gotham Stakes winner Stay Thirsty to compete for the Roses. Pletcher trained last years Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver.

Although I wanted him to run so I could play against him, it is good that the son of Indian Charlie will not compete. If he is not at his best a race like this could ruin his career. The connections are doing the right thing by not running. That takes guts in a race like this and I salute them for putting the horse first.

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2011 Kentucky Derby looms

May 6, 2011 By Leave a Comment

It is 3:36 am at the time I started writing this. I should be sleeping. Instead I just finished a marathon handicapping session which included the completion of my 2011 Kentucky Derby Picks sheet. It took 6 hours total, but it will be well worth it when I cash some big exotic tickets on Saturday.

The card difficulty is among the toughest I have ever seen. Despite, this I’m very confident. The more difficult the card the higher the payouts will be. I predict every Pick 4 will be a signer and the Pick 5 will pay in excess of $15,000. I plan on having the Pick 5 as well as a few Pick 4′s along the way. I am cautiously optimistic that the 2011 Kentucky Derby could be my best day of horse betting ever.

The most interesting races for Saturday are the CD, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and of course the Kentucky Derby. The CD has many horses that can win. I’ve got several big prices on my Pick 4 and 5 ticket. The Woodford Reserve and Kentucky Derby are also difficult races, but I feel I’ve got a good handle of both of them.

Friday’s card will be very good too. I like several big priced horses as my top picks. I’ll be on Twitter most of the day talking about the races so feel free to follow me @gradedstakes and we can discuss the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.

Be sure to purchase our selections for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. You will receive them via email. Payment through PayPal is simple and fast. Don’t miss out. Like I said, I believe this could be my greatest day of handicapping yet. You can join me for the ride!

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