2/5/12
The Kentucky Derby is the most coveted race in all of thoroughbred horse racing. Betting on the Kentucky Derby exceeds that of any other race. In fact, it is one of the most wagered on events in all of sports. In 2011 a total of $112 million went through the windows for the Run for the Roses. The Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown which also includes the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
One of the best ways of finding a winner in the Derby is to start following the contenders closely early on. We will track the top contenders and list our top 10 every week on this page. Be sure to check back often!
#1 Algorithms (Bernardini x Ava Knowsthecode by Cryptoclearance): The Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt ran by Hansen like it was nothing in the Holy Bull. The win was over a sloppy track, but was impressive nonetheless. He’s royally bred to go the classic distance. I really love his strong late punch and we will be seeing more of him on the Kentucky Derby trail. It’s kind of scary to think of how good he could be. I cant wait to find out where his ceiling is.
#2 Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West): The Michael Matz trainee is quietly preparing in Florida for the Kentucky Derby. He will first target the Fountain of Youth Stakes and then the Florida Derby. I’m a bit concerned about his ability to go the classic distance. His pedigree and race record makes me think he is better suited for races between 8 and 9 furlongs. For now, he is a top contender.
#3 Hansen (Tapit x Stormy Sunday by Sir Cat): The juvenile champion has more than a few doubters after he finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes. People are rushing to judge him much too quickly though. He had many factors working against him that day. First, it was just his fourth career race. Second, he had a pretty bad stumble at the break. Third, he was racing over a very sloppy racetrack. I’m not going to hold the Holy Bull loss against him. Let’s make a decision on him based on his next two races.
#4 Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat x Miner’s Blessing by Forty Niner): As the races have got longer so has this one’s visible talent. He devastated a strong group last out in the Delta Jackpot before winning the Garden City Stakes at Monmouth. He’s a push button horse that can sit right behind the speed and that will be a valuable asset if he can make it to the gate on the first Saturday in May. The sky is the limit, but it’s very early on in the progress. He’s got a good start, but there is a mountain left for him to climb. That goes for everyone on this list.
#5 Alpha (Bernardini x Alpha Point by Nijinsky II): I wasn’t sold on him until recently, but after that sharp Count Fleet Stakes score I have to give in. He passed a nice colt named Il Villano in that win and did so after his foe set an easy pace. I’ve got the feeling that he’s going to get better the more he races and that bodes well for a potential Kentucky Derby bid.
#6 Gemologist (Tiznow x Crystal Shard by Mr Prospector): Another undefeated colt with a perfect record from three races. His last win was a score at Churchill Downs where he sat just off the pace before striking in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. That was an important win as it got him a win over the track and gathered some much needed graded stakes earnings. I love his pedigree. He’s already shown a big heart just like his dad, and he’s got the pedigree to run the Derby distance.
#7 Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway x Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer): I could not have been more impressed with this guy leading up to the Juvenile where he finished third. He proved to be just a bit below Union Rags and Hansen that day, but he’s quite talented and could make up the ground in the end.
#8 Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat x Unbridled Elaine by Unbridled’s Song): This is a big colt with an even big motor. I loved the way he rated behind horses in his last race, a win in the Sham Stakes. There’s a ton of latent talent lurking inside this one, but like the others, it’s too soon to tell if he can compete for the honor of winning the Kentucky Derby.
#9 El Padrino (Pulpit x Enchanted Rock by Giant’s Causeway): I love the way he jogged past Take Charge Indy as if that horse was a claimer. I’m not sold just yet though. He ran poorly in the Remsen and his big win last out was only an allowance race. Can he kick it up again at the next level?
#10 Secret Circle (Eddington x Ragtime Hope by Dixieland Band): The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner didn’t lose much in defeat when he was passed near the wire by Out of Bounds in the Sham Stakes. I like the way he rated and as of right now it doesn’t appear that distance will be a problem. He needs to continue to show progress, but for now he is still a leading candidate for the Roses.
It’s still very early on in the process, but this is a rock solid list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders. Be sure to check back for updates as the list is sure to evolve leading up the race on the first Saturday in May.
Gradedstakes.com Social Media