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2011 Breeders Cup Sprint projects to be a tough race

October 13, 2011 By 2 Comments

By Robert Boswell

This year the thoroughbred racing scene as a whole has lacked a bit of clarity and the male sprint division was no different. Just take a look back; there have been eight Grade 1 sprint races on the main track for 3-year-olds or older, producing eight different winners. Just when one sprinter looked like he would take the lead with an impressive victory, another would jump up and beat him next time out.

Early in the year Aikenite shot to the top with consecutive Grade 2 wins in the Commonwealth at Keeneland and the Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day, both at seven furlongs. The Todd Pletcher trainee has since had trouble finding the winners’ circle, most recently beaten a whisker by New Zealand import Hoofit in Grade 3 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix, a Win and You’re In race for the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Hoofit, trained by red-hot Graham Motion and undefeated in two starts since coming to the U.S., is not Breeders’ Cup nominated, so his connections would have to supplement him to the race for $200,000.

Also not Breeders’ Cup nominated is Giant Ryan, winner of six consecutive races going back to a state-bred optional claimer at Aqueduct. He is sired by Freud, a full brother to Giant’s Causeway, and trained by Bisnath Parboo, who could be this year’s Cinderella story. Until this year Parboo was barely making it as a trainer in New York, and didn’t have 20 wins to his name. Then up came Giant Ryan winning six in a row, all at the Breeders’ Cup Sprint distance of six furlongs with the last two being Win and You’re In events. Despite winning his fifth straight in the Grade 2 Smile Spring Handicap at Calder, he gained little respect, taking the star-studded Grade 1 Vosburgh at odds of 12-1 in wire-to-wire fashion last out. Parboo, who trains for his son Shivananda, says they have already agreed to pay the supplemental fee of $100,000 to enter the Breeders’ Cup.

The Vosburgh, though loaded with talent, was not contested without controversy, as jockey Rajiv Maragh was suspended a week for his ride aboard Calibrachoa. Right out of the gate Maragh came over on projected pace presence Apriority, which in turn shut off Bob Baffert’s Euroears, who was also expected to be near the front. They finished seventh and eighth respectively in the eight-horse field and Baffert was characteristically outspoken about the incident, saying via Twitter that he was “glad to hear that Belmont stewards are going to suspended Rajiv…” while also calling the seven day suspension “lite.” The Langfuhr seven year old was coming off an impressive win over Smiling Tiger in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar, and a solid second in the Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen.

Another who showed promise earlier in the year is Trappe Shot. After winning his 2011 debut in an overnight stakes at Belmont, the Tapit colt splashed to one of the most impressive victories of the year in the Grade 2 True North Handicap on the Belmont undercard. Sean Avery beat him by a nose in the Grade 1 Alfred G Vanderbilt at Saratoga before he finished a disappointing fourth in the Vosburgh. Trappe Shot went off a solid favorite, due to Big Drama skipping the race with a fever.

By missing the Vosburgh, trainer David Fawkes allows Big Drama only two starts since he wired the field at 5-1 in last year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. After winning the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream in record-breaking fashion, Fawkes gave Big Drama a lengthy break before bringing him back in the Whippleton, an overnight stakes at Calder. He will train up to the Breeders’ Cup and Fawkes says the fever has not affected his training regimen.

Three time Grade 1 winner Smiling Tiger is expected to come from Jeff Bonde’s barn in California again this year to contend after a show finish as third choice a year ago. Following wins in two graded stakes in a row, he could only manage sixth behind impressive Aikenite in the Churchill Downs. Returning to California, the four year old took the Grade 1 Triple Bend at Hollywood, then was runner-up in the Bing Crosby and fourth in the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. Also coming from California is Amazombie, winner of the Grade 1 Ancient Title at Santa Anita, a Win and You’re In race. The win comes following a three race streak of third place finishes.

Two three year olds are expected to go as well. The Factor, also trained by Baffert, has won the Grade 2 San Vicente, the Grade 2 Rebel, and the Pat O’Brien. Wesley Ward’s Flashpoint has reverted back to sprinting after being on the Triple Crown trail, and captured the Grade 3 Jersey Shore at Monmouth before folding in the Phoenix most recently.

Other possible starters include Hamazing Destiny, last year’s runner-up and recent third in the Phoenix; Camp Victory, second in both the Triple Bend and Pat O’Brien; three year old Justin Phillip, winner of a sloppy Grade 2 Woody Stephens on Belmont Day; Force Freeze, second in the Vosburgh, and Apriority.

You may like Big Drama or finally be on the Giant Ryan bandwagon, but for me the Breeders’ Cup Sprint is just a huge puzzle. While the purse has been lowered to $1.5 million, the competition is as tougher than ever.

**Plan to bet the Breeders Cup Sprint? Check out our Horse Betting guide as well our our Facebook and Twitter pages for the latest information!**

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Sidney’s Candy will try to pull another heist in the 2011 Forego Stakes

August 31, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Grade 1 Forego Stakes is for three year olds and upward going 7 furlongs at Saratoga for a purse of $250,000. The race is named for the great 1970s star Forego who won 34 times from 59 starts for earnings of 1,938,957. The brilliant gelding won the Woodward Stakes four times in a row from 1974-77 and was Horse of the Year from 1974-76.

Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride x Fair Exchange by Storm Cat) figures to be the favorite. The Todd Pletcher trainee  won the Four Star Dave Handicap last out in his first race with the Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is so versatile on dirt and turf and from several different distances that the connection have opted to turn him back to try for a Grade 1 win sprinting on the dirt.

The colt is perfect over the distance with his only try coming in the San Vicente Stakes. The dirt surface could be a question, but he figures to handle it just fine after a crushing win in the Sir Beaufort  last year which was taken off the turf, but contested on a fast track.

I’m not wild about his chances. All of his wins have come while setting a slow pace. Essentially everything has gone his way. Not only that, but I also believe the competition he beat last out and in California was very soft. The WinStar connections will know what they have after this race, but I’m going to call for an upset.

My pick for the Forego Stakes is the other Pletcher entry, Aikenite (Yes Its True x Silverlado by Saint Ballado). I never used to like this horse, but he has proven himself with wins in the Commonwealth and Churchill Downs. He was a bit dull last out in the James Marvin, but did experience a somewhat poor trip. Velazquez chose to ride Sidney’s Candy over this one, but with JJ Castellano getting up there isn’t much to worry about in that area. The price should be square on a runner that will move from off the pace.

Others I considered are Hamazing Destiny, Jerseytown and Rule By Night. In the end I felt like Aikenite had less questions about his form than they do. I got away from Jackson Bend because in the past he has had a hard time putting together  back to back strong efforts. If he reproduces his last race he could be tough to handle.

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2011 James Marvin Stakes betting preview

July 20, 2011 By 1 Comment

The $75k James Marvin Stakes is one of the best ungraded races worth less than six figures I’ve seen in a very long time, if not ever. This race could easily be a Grade 2. Most of the entrants will try to use the race as a springboard for the Grade 1 Forego later in the meet.

Jersey Town (Speightstown x Jersey Girl by Belong To Me) figures to get plenty of support despite entering this race on a seven month rest. He was last seen nailing Haynesfield on the wire to take the Cigar Mile. The Barclay Tagg trainee has seven works leading up to this race and has fired fresh in the past. Cornelio Velasquez gets the mount back after scoring in the Cigar last out in their first race together.

Todd Pletcher brings Aikenite (Yes It’s True by Silverlado by Saint Ballado) and Caixa Electronica (Arromanches x Edyta by Skip Away). Both exit the Metropolitan Mile with Caixa Electronica ending up third and Aikenite finishing fourth. That was a very, very strong race and both have a big shot here. I like Caixa Electronica a bit more of the two. Both colts will target the Forego after this.

Hamazing Destiny (Salt Lake x Ms Proud by Artax) finished second in the Breeders Cup Sprint last out. The long layoff combined with the fact that, in my mind, he is a Churchill Downs specialist makes him hard to like. D. Wayne Lukas is the trainer and Robby Albarado will ride.

Distance specialists Here Comes Ben (Street Cry x Chasetheragingwind by Dayjur) and D’Funnybone (D’Wildcat x Elbow by Woodman) will seek to take top honors here. Here Comes Ben was last seen taking the Kelly’s Landing at this distance. He has gone seven furlongs seven times in his career and won five of those races. He also owns a second place finish. D’Funnybone has seen better days, but still has four wins from six tries going seven furlongs.

Gayego (Gilded Time x Devils Lake by Lost Code) is a dual Grade 1 winner at 6 and 9 furlongs. The old man hasn’t been out since February and might need a race before he fires his best shot. I hope to see him land a spot in the shed very soon.

Ravalo (Mutakddim x Momentary Hope by Southern Halo) is worth a mention. He will be making his fourth start and if he hits the board he will become the next millionaire in horse racing.

I’ve got a strong feeling for the James Marvin Stakes. Click here to learn how to get my full card selections for this race as well as the rest of the action at Saratoga.

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Met Mile means big stud money for winner

May 29, 2011 By 2 Comments

The Metropolitan Handicap is a fixture of the racing scene dating back to the 1890’s. This one-turn one mile race is known as the “stallion” maker, as its Grade 1 status and one-turn mile distance are major plusses to American breeders.  This year’s group of 11 runners has four horses that can put that major stamp on their future stallion status.  Seven others (including one gelding) will try to prevent that from happening while notching a major win. Let’s break down this field, based on what it would mean to their stallion status.

The last thing missing from their resume:

Aikenite has come back in 2011 with a vengeance as he won two graded events at seven furlongs. He is the co-high weight at 120 lbs, but he looks vulnerable as this is his 3rd race in 6 weeks, including a ship from Kentucky after his last race. He is the 3rd choice on the morning line at 9/2, but he will probably go off lower than that. Haynesfield has several graded stakes wins (including a G1 in the JCGC), but this win would be the coup de grace for this New York bred.  He loves Belmont, with a 7-5-1-0 record. However, his only off the board finish was his last race in his 2011 debut.  He’ll carry 119 lbs. for the race, and he looks to bounce back. He is the morning line favorite at 7/2, but he will probably go off at around 3-1. Kensei hasn’t returned to his three year old form, when he won both the Grade 2 Dwyer and Jim Dandy Stakes.  He has struggled at this top tier of racing, including getting obliterated in this race last year by 12 ¾ lengths. The one turn mile distance is a good one, but he looks to be up against it this time.

Needs this win to be more than a regional sire:

Soaring Empire won the G3 Hal’s Hope to start his 2011 season, and has been working strong since his last race in March. However, he struggled in his only other Grade 1 forays, and was beat twice by fellow entrant Tackleberry after beating him in the Hal’s Hope. His odds always feel to be depressed versus his actual chances, so he may once again be an underlay. Caixa Electronica won first off the claim for Todd Pletcher last out in the Grade 3 Westchester. He has had only one solid work since, but can he keep it going? Tizway won the Grade 2 Kelso last year, then went off as the second choice in the BC Dirt Mile last year, where he finished 5th.  He finished 3rd last year in this race, and he cuts back off a third in the Charles Town Classic. He loves Belmont almost as much as Haynesfield, with a 5-2-1-2 lifetime record here.  He’s worked well since the race, is in the lightest of the main contenders (116 lbs.) and his outside post should let him get a good stalking position.

Career-Making win:

Stormy’s Majesty takes a big step up from his NY-bred stakes win last out, and is probably in too deep. Rodman steps up off a $60k stakes win last out, and he does run well fresh, but he’s never been this high up the ladder. He’s never been out of the exacta at the distance, and he could be the bomb in the exotics. Yawanna Twist has been a professional check-earner in his career, with his only off-the-board finish being his 4th in the Preakness. However, he has never won a stake of any kind in his career. Maybe he sort of grinds his way to an on the board finish? Ibboyee has won NY-bred stakes and placed in open states, but maybe this is beyond his optimum distance.

That leaves Tackleberry, who is the only gelding in the field. He is the major speed in the race, and was strong over the winter. He throws on lasix after bleeding last out while finishing fourth in the Charles Town Classic.

So there’s the field for the Met Mile. Can someone assure themselves a high stud fee in Kentucky? Or get that win to make sure they end up in Kentucky at all? No matter what, it figures to be a good race.

Our top pick is Tizway. Click here to find out why. Also, consider betting with Twin Spires this Memorial Day weekend. They offer an excellent $100 sign up bonus. Wagering online is the way to go and the preferred method of this site.

 

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Met Mile Handicap preview and pick

May 27, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Ryan Patterson takes a look at the Metropolitan Mile. His top pick is Tizway. Watch the video to find out more!

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Fly Down & A Little Warm head contentious Jim Dandy Stakes

July 29, 2010 By Leave a Comment

“Look at Bernardini! He didn’t break a sweat, and its 90 degrees!”

The Jim Dandy Stakes is contested at 9 furlongs on the dirt for three-year-olds at Saratoga. It is a Grade 2 event and is typically used as a springboard towards the more important Grade 1 Travers Stakes the following month. Last year’s Jim Dandy was taken by Kensei. The colt was on a hot streak at the time and hasn’t done much since. Before Kensei it was Macho Again, Street Sense, and Bernardini. All three of those winners had or went on to have excellent careers. I have a feeling this years winner could be destined for bigger things too.

The race is headlined by Grade 2 Dwyer Stakes winner Fly Down. He took the Dwyer two back by a massive 6 lengths before finishing second to Drosselmeyer in the Belmont Stakes. With a better trip Fly Down could have been the victor over Drosselmeyer, as he was when he beat him in the Dwyer. Trainer Nick Zito has Fly Down working up a storm. His latest workout was a :47 1/5 four furlong move that was the fastest of 77 works. The son of Mineshaft has won two times from three starts at the Jim Dandy distance. He will be favored and for good reason. Fly Down is a fast racehorse. However, if he wants to win he will have to best a colt who finished in front of him in the Louisiana Derby.

That colt is A Little Warm. He is trained by Anthony Dutrow and will be ridden by John Velazquez. The son of Stormin Fever was given a respite after failing to gain enough earnings to compete in the Kentucky Derby. That respite ended with an allowance win at Delaware over a decent competitor in Miner’s Reserve. That win was very important because it showed that A Little Warm could relax behind the leaders in a route race. All in all the race was very solid, especially so given that he hadn’t raced since late March.  A Little Warm is a classy colt. He finished second in the Louisiana Derby and Hutcheson Stakes. He won the ungraded Spectacular Bid Stakes. The Virginia bred looks ready to run a career best race. He will have to do so if he wants to win against this competitive field!

Afleet Express comes into the Jim Dandy with a good reputation, but he won’t be one of the top two betting choices. The son of Afleet Alex took a nw2l (non-winners of two lifetime races) event two back by 7 3/4 lengths. The James Jerkens trainee earned a massive 113 BRIS figure for that effort. He validated that win by taking the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes over  Afleet Again, and Jackson Bend. He has the benefit of hot jockey JJ Castellano riding him. Despite his strong efforts it is likely that he will need to move forward yet again if he wants to come out on top here.

Bet at Twinspires!

Steinbeck will be racing for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The trainer is like the European version of Todd Pletcher. His colt will be racing on nine days rest after finishing 2nd in a Group 3 event at Leopardstown. Shipping across the pond on nine days rest means he is a total non-factor in my handicapping. I won’t include him on any tickets. He is still a nice colt, but he has too much to overcome.

Stormy’s Majesty and Friend Or Foe enter the race undefeated. Both have won three races. Friend Or Foe easily won the statebred Mike Lee Stakes last out over eventual New York Derby winner Ibboyee. That race was at seven furlongs. He will have to be something special to win this race going two turns for the first time. Stormy’s Majesty won a statebred optional claiming event last out by a whopping eight lengths going one mile. Both colts are up against it, but the have bright futures after this race.

Aikenite will race for Todd Pletcher. He made a failed try at Preakness Stakes two back before taking an allowance race. This son of Yes It’s True has plenty of talent, but he probably isn’t ready for this type of competition just yet. I’m a bit surprised that Pletcher entered him. David Cohen will retain the mount. Don’t count him out. Looks can be deceiving, but  I don’t see it happening.

Calvin Borel will return as the pilot of Miner’s Reserve for this race. The Nick Zito trainee has run two strong races prior to the Dandy. He finished second to A Little Warm after setting the pace last out. Before that he won an allowance race at Belmont Park. It will be up to Miner’s Reserve to ensure an honest pace. Can he get brave on the lead and keep going? I guess we will have to wait to find out.

The last runner I haven’t mentioned is Winslow Homer. He looked like a top Kentucky Derby contender after a strong win in the Holy Bull Stakes. Sadly, he fell off the trail because of an injury. He returned to the races with a third place finish behind Concord Point  who freaked to win the Iowa Derby by 9 lengths for trainer Bob Baffert. I think you can forgive Winslow’s Homer’s effort. He will enter this race a bit under the radar after failing to win his comeback race, but he is every bit as good as he ever was. A win from him wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Who is your top pick to win the Jim Dandy Stakes? Leave a comment and discuss! You can get my selections for the Jim Dandy, Diana, Haskell, and many other races this weekend by purchasing my selections below. Purchasers of any Saratoga package will also get picks for the Haskell Invitational!

Saratoga/Del Mar Picks

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Challengers lining up to face Pletcher and Borel’s Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver

May 3, 2010 By Leave a Comment


For the third time in four years Calvin Borel rocketed his mount to the front of the pack in the Kentucky Derby. In 2007 it was aboard juvenile champion Street Sense. He did it on super long shot Mine That Bird in 2009. This time it was on Super Saver. The Cajun jockey held three fingers to the sky after the race to signify these three horses.

Soon after he boldly stated that the son of Maria’s Mon would win the Triple Crown. Trainer Todd Pletcher said that Super Saver’s next race would come in the Preakness (shocking, right?). Calvin may believe he has the 12th Triple Crown winner of all time, but several challengers will line up to oppose him.

The first one that leaps out to me is Grade 2 Louisiana Derby runner up A Little Warm. He was very impressive stretching out in distance for the first time in that race. He appeared to be a sprinter, but he proved his doubters wrong by digging in and holding on for second after he came under attack early in the stretch run. If he can improve on that effort he would be dangerous in the Preakness. If Bob Baffert doesn’t send Conveyance his chances will be increased. Conveyance would likely burn him to a crisp on the lead.

I also like Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado. The gelded son of Cat Dreams has had excuses in his last to races. In the Grade 2 San Felipe he had no fractions to chase and Sidney’s Candy easily pulled the wire job. In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby he had to check sharply after the Gomez-Espinoza incident where Lookin at Lucky was slammed into the rail. If he goes to the Preakness and the fractions are sharp you can bet your ass he will come flying late. The only thing working against him is that Pimlico Racecourse favors speed.

The Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin at Lucky, would have a heck of a chance if Bob Baffert decides to send him. He has encountered plenty of trouble in his three-year-old campaign, but has handled it well. He rallied to win the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes after clipping heels. In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby he was unable to overcome being slammed into the rail, but still finished third. He put in a nice rally in the Derby but couldn’t overcome his rail post position. If Garrett Gomez can navigate a clean trip he will be loaded for bear turning for home and could mow them all down.

Others considering the race are Kentucky Derby third place finisher Paddy O’Prado. He is the definition of the “now” horse. He continues to improve with every start. Nick Zito and Bob LaPenta are toying with idea of starting Kentucky Derby runner up Ice Box in the Preakness, but will probably save him for the Belmont Stakes. Ice Box was easily the best colt in the Derby, but didn’t win because of an awful trip. Their other horse, Jackson Bend, is likely to go.

Other Kentucky Derby also rans’ considering the Preakness are Dublin, Make Music For Me, and Conveyance. New shooters include the Grade 3 Derby Trial first three finishers Hurricane Ike, Aikenite, and Pleasant Prince. Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby runner up Schoolyard Dreams and Grade 3 Illinois Derby fourth place finisher Turf Melody wrap up the list of potential challengers. Super Saver will undoubtedly be in with a huge shot, but these horses won’t make it easy on him.

Who is your early pick for the Preakness? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

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