I’m headed out of town this weekend and I somewhat regret it. There are so many great races taking place and chances are slim that I will get to catch any of them live. Oh well, the great thing about racing is there is always another race.
Perhaps the most important race this weekend is the Louisiana Derby. The Grade 2 event is contested at 9 furlongs for a cool $1 million. The field came up pretty poor considering the whopping purse. I don’t see any of these horses having an impact in the Kentucky Derby.
Mucho Macho Man is the 9-5 morning line favorite on the strength of his victory in the Risen Star Stakes on February 19. The pace scenario in that win was very favorable for him and I don’t see him having such an easy go of it this time. At such a short price he is worth trying to beat.
Second choice Machen will be my top selection at 7-2. Edgar Prado gets the mount from Jamie Theriot after the colt finished a hard trying 4th behind Mucho Macho Man last out. It was his first time against such stout company and the trip was less than ideal as he was wide much of the way and had very little pace to chase. His works are strong and he should improve with the added distance. I expect Prado to have the Neil Howard trainee closer to the pace. His chances will be improved if he does.
Elite Alex is another solid option. He closed from way back going a mile in the Southwest Stakes to be third behind Archarcharch. He was fanned 6 wide into the stretch. The extra distance should suit him well and I love 421 Tomlinson Rating for the distance. Jockey Calvin Borel loves the colt and has said he wouldn’t trade places with anyone.
The final horse of interest in the Louisiana Derby is Kelly Breen’s colt, Nacho Business. He had a rough go of it last out when second in an allowance race. The winner of that race, Arch Traveler, will be a stakes horse very soon. Nacho Business was rank in that spot if my memory serves me well, but it does not say that in his PPs. With a stronger trip and some improvement he can run with these colts at 10-1.
The Mervin Munoz Handicap will precede the feature race. I’m going with Expansion to win his second race in a row after springing a 32-1 upset last out in the Fair Grounds Handicap. In retrospect he should have never been that big of a price considering he had faced Grade 1 company almost exclusively last year with third place finishes in the Manhattan Handicap and the Man O’War Stakes. The son of Maria’s Mon will be a much more realistic 8-1 this time. Look for him to sit just behind the pace under Gerard Meloncon. This will be his second time riding Expansion and he really seems to fit well.
Snow Fall looks like an interesting option in the Fair Grounds Oaks. The 8-1 shot broke her maiden last out in a race taken off the turf at the distance of 1 mile and 70 yards. Her time of 1:41 4/5 was much better than two other fillies who ran that day also entered here. They finished in 1:43 2/5. I usually don’t put much value into times, but in this case I think it works. That win was Snow Fall’s first try on dirt and she clearly loved it. Annie Napravnik should have the Michael Stidham trainee near the pace. I could see her on the lead or taking the first jump on the pace setters. For the price she is really hard to pass up.
Bind will be running earlier in the card for trainer Al Stall. He earned a BSF of 105 in his debut covering the 6 furlongs distance in 1:08 4/5 while ridden out. He is stretching out in this spot and would have to have a complete meltdown to lose. I know the connections are taking it slow in order to have him ready for the Travers and perhaps the Breeders Cup Classic later on, but if it were me he would be in the Louisiana Derby. Why run for $50k when he would be vying for favoritism in a $1 million race? I guess money isn’t of huge importance when the connections won the Breeders Cup Classic with Blame last year.
Here is my ticket for the all stakes Pick 4: 1,5,6,7/6/2,3,4,5,6/1,6,11
Who do you like in the big races at Fair Grounds?
mean he will be my top pick though. I’m going to wait for the PPs and watch the news closely before I make that decision. However, he is definitely on the short list!
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