May 18, 2012

Weekend Review (Alabama & Lake Placid Stakes)


The Grade 1 Alabama Stakes was the most important race on tap this past weekend and it did not disappoint.

The 9 furlong Saratoga race for three-year-old fillies drew a field of only six, but it was one of those rare cases where any one of the six horses had a legitimate chance to win the race. The betting action was very quirky and something none of us expected to happen occurred when Queen’s Plate winner Inglorious opened up as a 4-5 favorite from her 6-1 ML price. She would end up going off at 2-1 with It’s Tricky ending up with slightly more action, but also at 2-1.

Plum Pretty bounced out the gate and set easy fractions on the lead as many expected she would. The Martin Garcia ridden lass carved out a first quarter in 24.54 and a half mile in 49.31. It’s Tricky who had been tracking a length back most of the way pounced at the ¾ pole which was hit in 1:13.12. As they hit the turn for home, CCA Oaks winner It’s Tricky had collared Kentucky Oaks winner and pacesetter Plum Pretty. Neither of them were destined to win though.

It was Royal Delta who had sat just behind both of them most of the way before swinging wide to mid stretch to register a powerful 5 ½ length victory. Once she hit the lead she quickly bounded away and looked very good doing so, stopping the clock in 2:03.13. Royal Delta earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure for trainer Bill Mott and jockey Jose Lezcano.

It’s Tricky held on for second and 19-1 shot Pinch Pie came on late to steal third from Plum Pretty. It should be noted that Inglorious never looked very comfortable and probably needs to get back on the Poly Track or turf.

Our pick, St. John’s River, had no real excuse.

Royal Delta has always looked like a top filly. She won her debut at Belmont by a whopping 12 lengths before flopping in a minor stakes race after a long layoff at Tampa Bay Downs where she was beaten 15 lengths. After that she took an allowance by three lengths at Keeneland and then won the Black-Eyed Susan by an easy 2 ½ lengths. Her last race before this break through win was a dull third by 7 1/4 lengths in the CCA Oaks. That effort was on a two months rest and it appears that she is best with a recent race in the books.

This group has a bright future. Royal Delta and It’s Tricky will probably head to Parx for the Grade 2 Cotillion Stakes. I expect Baffert to regroup with Plum Pretty and perhaps give her some time off. St. John’s River probably needs easier company, but I wouldn’t hesitate to give her another try at the right price in the Cotillion.

The Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes was the other big race this weekend from the Spa. The betting public was besides itself with affection for Lake George winner Winter Memories who they sent off as the 1-5 favorite.

Lake George runner up Bellamy Star led the field through extremely easy fractions of 26.07, 51.91 and 1.17.18. Not long after the stretch drive began she was overtaken by Rachel Alexandra winner Kathmanblu. Winter Memories tried to make a move, but was caught in traffic and ultimately ended up on the rail where she could no produce the kick that she showed last out. Instead, it was Hungry Island who blasted off for an easy 2 ½ length triumph over runner up Kathmanblu. Winter Memories was beaten a neck for third by Dynamic Holiday.

My top pick for the Lake Placid was the winner, Hungry Island. She was somehow allowed to pay $21.40. This makes no sense in my mind as she was clearly a top contender and should have been no more than 4-1. Finding an overlay like this is rare. Our second choice for the race was the second place finisher Kathmanblu thus making for a $136.50 exacta. You can read what we had to say here.

Our Free Horse Racing Picks page was stocked with four races this weekend and included one scratch and two winners ($8.20, $21.40). Be sure to bookmark that page as well as our Saratoga Picks page to get the best picks on the internet.

2011 Alabama Stakes betting preview

The Grade 1 Alabama Stakes is one of the most prestigious races for a filly in the United States. The final leg of the Triple Tiara presents a unique challenge in the form of the 10 furlongs distance. Those to claim the race in the past include Shuvee, Life’s Magic, Go For Ward, Sky Beauty, Silverbulletday and Blind Luck.

It’s Tricky (Mineshaft x Catboat by Tale of the Cat), winner of the Acorn and CCA Oaks in her last two outings, will be the favorite. The filly is a perfect 4 for 4 with Eddie Castro up and 5 of 6 lifetime. I had her as my top pick in the last out in the CCA Oaks where she was a crazy good price of 4.30-1 in a five horse field. I’m going to look a different direction today as I think the extra furlong could get to her and I don’t believe the set up will be as good for her this time.

The Andrew Leggio trainee St. John’s River (Include x Adventurous Di by Private Account) is an interesting option. The lass broke poorly from the 13 gate in the Kentucky Oaks two races back, but still closed like a freight train to be second beaten only a head. After that she ran a bang up race to get up on the wire in the Delaware Oaks. She’s plenty good enough to beat this group and will be a generous price compared to her rivals. Robby Albarado gets the call to ride.

Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia are back with Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty (Medaglia D’oro x Liszy by AP Indy) who was second behind the aforementioned It’s Tricky in the CCA Oaks last out. Bafffert is a master of strategy and figures to change things up this time. Don’t be surprised if Garcia doesn’t end up on the lead. I think (and maybe Baffert does too) that she runs better with a target in front of her. The Peachtree Stable owned filly is much more suited for 10 furlongs than It’s Tricky so it should come as no surprise if she turns the tables on her in the Alabama Stakes.

Inglorious (Hennessy x Noble Strike) could be the “x” factor for this race. She was last seen sweeping past her rivals in the Queen’s Plate (a race which we CRUSHED!) to post a 2 ½ length win. Before that she won the Woodbine Oaks. This isn’t trainer Josie Carroll’s first rodeo either. She won the Alabama in 2009 with Careless Jewel. I like her, but the fact that 4 of her 5 lifetime wins have been against Canadian breds makes me wonder if she can handle this group. Luis Contreras is in to ride.

Jose Lezcano rode St. John’s River last out, but winds up on Royal Delta (Empire Maker x Delta Princess by AP Indy) in this race. She scored in the Black-Eyed Susan two back, but flopped last out in the CCA Oaks where she was third beaten 7 ¼ lengths. She is working very well for trainer Bill Mott and we know she will go the distance. She looks live, but the only problem with that is everyone else does too.

Tony Dutrow and John Velazquez hook up to bring Pinch Pie (Victory Gallop x Romp And Stomp by Olympio). She has won two races in a row, but looks like a fringe contender here. This group is just too classy for her to win.

My top pick to win the wide open 2011 Alabama Stakes from Saratoga is St. John’s River. The filly is still getting better and brings a massive closing kick to the table. That along with the clear ability to go the distance makes her an attractive option at 5-1.

For information on where to bet the race check out our Horse Betting page. Also, check out our Saratoga Picks page to get our selections for the rest of the action at the Spa. For a limited time you will also get picks for Del Mar that same day. Don’t miss out!

The Alabama Stakes at HRP is also a competitive field of six. Will it be Belmont Stakes runner up Mai Mia Bambina or Acorn Stakes winner Blow Me To The Moon? Check out our Horse Racing Games page to learn more.

Free Weekend Selections

Alabama Stakes

Blind Luck (8-5) This filly just seems to know where the wire is. She has won three races by a nose and is clearly the one to beat here despite being second choice on the morning line. Look for her to come flying late under jockey Joel Rosario who will be piloting her for the second time.

Arlington Million

General Quarters (8-1) Trainer Tom McCarthy made clear early in the year that this race was the goal for his colt. He has done well on the turf. He won the Woodford Reserve earlier this year against some nice horses, and if he runs his best race he can down the favored Gio Ponti.

Del Mar Oaks

Crisp (6-1) What’s not to like about this filly? She is a Grade 1 winner this year and will have the services of red hot jockey Rafael Bejarano. The daughter of El Corredor will be going 9 furlongs for the first time in career. She has proved she can beat the favored Evening Jewel, and she ran a bang up race after clipping heels last out. I give her a huge shot and could see her going off at a price larger than 6-1.

Secretariat Stakes

Wigmore Hall (5-1) Like it or not, the Europeans have better turf horses than we do and this gelding will prove that. He beat 18 older horses two races ago despite a horrendous trip. The Michael Bell trainee has won at the distance twice from four starts. Paddy O’ Prado is an amazing animal, but I think this gelding will give him everything he wants and perhaps more. That’s not to say Paddy can’t or wont win, but I like my chances on this one at a good price.

Beverley D Stakes

Hot Cha Cha (6-1) Her price won’t be as ripe with the defection of Rainbow View, but she still warrants a big look. The Grade 1 winning filly ran strong last out to be third behind Tuscan Evening. She is clearly the best filly in the race and if she runs her race she will win. I love the bullet 1:00 B work entering this race. She needs a moderate to fast pace and as long as the pace setters don’t go slow I think she wins this event.

Lake Placid Stakes

It’s Tea Time (10-1) I’ve loved this filly ever since she ran second in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. It’s hard to imagine her being 10-1 despite the fact that won an allowance last out. She has all the talent in the world and if she can get a pace to chase she will be tough to hold off in the lane.

Who do you like? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below!