February 8, 2012

Awesome Act’s Excuse

For the second time in two years I was puzzled as to why my pick in the Kentucky Derby couldn’t be found with a search warrant turning for home. In 2008 I ended up taking Friesan Fire who would be the favorite after the defection of several top runners. The colt clipped heels and bled throughout the race which eliminated his chances of winning. This year I took Awesome Act as my pick. I couldn’t believe he was nowhere around after a blistering pace.

As it turns out, the son of Awesome Again came out of the race lame. The meaning of the word lame in an equine sense is when a horse isn’t walking correctly. It can be caused by many different things. Awesome Act will have a nuclear scintigraphy scan at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington.

The colt is owned by Susan Roy in partnership with Vinery Stables. He shipped to the U.S. last year where he finished a close 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. He returned to Great Britain for a spell and then won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes in his first race back in the states. After that win he was a distant third behind Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. Jeremy Noseda has trained the colt to this point in time, but he will be transferred to Steve Asmussen when he recovers from his injury.

I hope next year I am able to pick a colt that wins or loses with a clean shot. I don’t like to lose. Especially when the horse I pick didn’t really have a “clean chance” to win the race. Friesan Fire has returned to run some nice races since his incident in the Kentucky Derby. I hope and expect the same from Awesome Act.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

 

Are you counting down the days yet? I know I am. There are 20 days until the Kentucky Derby. All of the major preps except for the Lexington Stakes have been conducted. Some horses will get injured and kept out of the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, but we pretty much know who is who at this point in time. Let’s take a look at my top contenders.

#1 Eskendereya- If this colt were a character from a movie he would be Clubber Lang from Rocky III. He reminds me of this quote from Mickey in that movie: “No, he ain’t just another fighter! This guy is a wrecking machine! And he’s hungry!”. My prediction for the Kentucky Derby? …..Pain! This son of Giant’s Causeway has a gun in a knife fight.

#2 Sidney’s Candy- I’ve said for a while that we don’t know how good this colt really is. Even after winning the Santa Anita Derby I STILL don’t think we have seen the bottom of him. I doubt he is as good as my #1 selection and his running style may compromise his chances. Can Talamo get him to rate? It might not matter if he is “just that good”.

#3 Lookin at Lucky- This colt’s name is quite an oxymoron. He has won 6 of 8 races, and if not for two horrible trips he might be undefeated. I love the way he still rallied to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby despite being pushed into the rail early in the race. He has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs. He is in great hands with Bob Baffert and big money rider Garrett Gomez.

#4 Paddy O’ Prado- I thought he was gone in the stretch of the Bluegrass Stakes until Stately Victor totally freaked and won the race. He is steadily improving and I just have a funny feeling that this colt is for real. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has a great record in the Kentucky Derby.

#5 Rule- The setup of the Florida Derby worked against him. I was nearly 100% sure a closer wouldn’t win that race. I loved his 2010 debut win when he took the Sam Davis Stakes. I’m not sure he is a candidate for top honors, but I can see him running a big race.

#6 Dublin- If he wasn’t in D Wayne Lukas’s barn I probably wouldn’t give him a shot. He had a perfect chance to win Arkansas Derby, but failed to go for the jugular late in the race. Monitor his training in the days leading up to the race.

#7 Awesome Act- He looked poised for a big run in the Wood Memorial turning for home, but when Leparoux unleashed him there wasn’t much there. However, I believe he lost a shoe at the start of the race. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give a good impression of himself on Kentucky Derby day.

#8 Noble’s Promise- His fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby sure didn’t help his chances. Ken McPeek is still on the fence in terms of deciding to race him in the Run for the Roses.

#9 Super Saver- Winner of the Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at two, this colt always give a good account of himself. His running style will probably hurt his chances on the First Saturday in May.

#10 Ice Box- I’m wary of this colt because he won the Florida Derby closing into a tough pace. How will he do when the track doesn’t play in his favor?

So there you have it, my top ten contenders for the Kentucky Derby. This list is almost  certain to change between now and May 1. Kentucky Derby betting will be very interesting, exciting, and fun this year. Who do you like? Leave a comment and join the conversation!

Kentucky Derby Top 10 List

The Kentucky Derby is rapidly approaching. Several of the top prep races have already been contested and several of the horses that will be in that gate on the First Saturday in May have already had their final preparatory race. Plenty of others have not so there is still much to be decided. Let’s take a look at some of the top contenders.

#1 Lookin at Lucky- The defending juvenile champion has done very little wrong in his career. If not for a poor trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he would be undefeated. He is a son of Smart Strike so his pedigree is top notch. Trainer Bob Baffert has taken the roses three times (Real Quiet, Silver Charm, War Emblem), which means this colt couldn’t be in better hands. I love the fact that his highest Beyer Speed Figure was recorded on dirt when he won the Rebel Stakes after a trip from hell. Look for a huge effort in the Santa Anita Derby if that is his next race.

#2 Odysseus- Have you seen this son of Malibu Moon’s last two races? If not then I suggest you head over to YouTube and check him out. He crushed an allowance field by 15 lengths two back at Tampa Bay Downs. After that win he returned in the Tampa Bay Derby. He appeared finished at the top of the stretch, but came on again to register a narrow victory. He is visually impressive and “looks the part” so to speak. He is expected to race in the Bluegrass Stakes. Be on the watch for him.

#3 Sidney’s Candy- I love the way this horse won easily in his last two races. He took the San Vicente easily. He returned for another easy score in the San Felipe. The latter was his first try around two turns. Some question his ability to stay, but I don’t think he will have a problem being a son of Candy Ride. It’s hard to say how good he is at this point, but he will get the acid test next out in the Santa Anita Derby.

#4 Awesome Act- I love the way he skipped over the track in his Gotham win. That was his first race of the year. The son of Awesome Again seems to be getting good at the right time for his European connections. He ended his two-year-old campaign with a fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Look for him in the Wood Memorial.

#5 Eskendereya- This colt is atop many Kentucky Derby lists, but I have to see him reproduce his Fountain of Youth effort before I get on board. I view him as a Bellamy Road type of colt in the sense that while Bellamy Road was an incredible runner, he didn’t show up on Kentucky Derby day. I can see that happening with this one. If he impresses in the Wood Memorial I’ll hop on the bandwagon, but until then I prefer the top 4 over him.

#6 Interactif- He is a stakes winner on the turf for trainer Todd Pletcher. His first start over the synthetic resulted in a second place finish behind Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe. He was moving well late despite the fact that he had no fractions to chase. He will return in the Bluegrass Stakes.

#7 Schoolyard Dreams- I loved his big move in the Tampa Bay Derby. He was narrowly defeated by Odysseus in that race. He is handled by Derek Ryan who trained 2009 Illinois Derby winner Musket Man. His next start will come in the Wood Memorial.

#8 Jackson Bend- He is in perfect hands with Nick Zito. He ran into a horse that wasn’t going to lose last out when he was second to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth. It will be interesting to see how Calvin Borel handles him in the Wood.

#9 Caracortado- How can you knock a gelding that has lost just once? Throw in the fact that he lost due to a slow pace and he looks even better. I love the way he rolled up on the pacesetters in his Robert B. Lewis win. He will need a strong performance in the Santa Anita Derby to stay on track for the First Saturday in May.

#10 Noble’s Promise- The son of Cuvee was last seen finishing a close second to Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes. He could make some noise in his next start which in all likelihood will be the first time he hasn’t competed against “Lucky” since his triumph in the Futurity at Keeneland.

Follow the 2010 Kentucky Derby contenders and the upcoming prep races next week on Stakes Tracker on Horse Racing Nation:
  • 2010 Santa Anita Derby
  • 2010 Wood Memorial
  • 2010 Illinois Derby

This list will change drastically after the Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes, and Illinois Derby are conducted this weekend. I firmly believe that the winner of the Kentucky Derby will come from one of those two races, or the Santa Anita Derby. I’m putting very little stock in the Lanes End, Florida Derby, Sunland Derby, and Louisiana Derby. I believe the winners of those races are a cut below those on this list. The most important question still remains; who do YOU like?!

Kentucky Derby Top 5 List

The Kentucky Derby is almost here.  The First Saturday in May is one month from Thursday. Several key preps have yet to be conducted and a lot will shake out between now and then. Let’s take a look at my top 5 contenders at this point. Feel free to share your thoughts and input by leaving a comment.

#1 Lookin at Lucky- The Juvenile Champ has done very little wrong in his career. He has only lost once and that was due to a poor trip. He got up to take the Rebel Stakes in his last start despite having to overcome a horrid trip. I love the son of Smart Strike’s breeding, and he is in excellent hands with Bob Baffert and Garrett Gomez. Look for him in the Santa Anita Derby.

#2 Odysseus- I absolutely love the Tampa Bay Derby victory. He looked like he was dead in the water turning for home, but somehow came on again to win the race. Before that he crushed an allowance field by 15 lengths. I’m not very sure how well he is suited for the distance. He is a sons of Malibu Moon. I expect to see him compete in the Bluegrass Stakes before heading to Churchill Downs.

#3 Awesome Act- He looked great skipping over the track in his Gotham victory. It appears that the son of Awesome Again is getting good at the right time. His Gotham win was his first start of the year. Prior to that he was 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Jeremy Noseda. Look for him in the Wood Memorial.

#4 Eskendereya- Most people will disagree with me having this colt at 4th and that is fine. I want to see him reproduce his freakish effort in the Fountain of Youth before I get on board. If he wins the Wood Memorial like that I’ll hop on the band wagon. Of course I’ll also fear he is a Bellamy Road 2.0 (Bellamy Road crushed the Wood Memorial field before finishing 7th in the Run for the Roses). John Velazquez rides for Todd Pletcher. He will be in the Wood Memorial.

#5 Sidney’s Candy- It’s hard to say how good this colt really is. I love his easy win over Grade 2 company two races back. After that he easily won the Grade 2 San Felipe, but did so after setting fractions that were slow. How will he respond under pressure? We will find out in the Santa Anita Derby. Joe Talamo pilots this son of Candy Ride for John Sadler.

Who are your picks for the Kentucky Derby right now? I’d love to know. Leave a comment below.