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2011 Belmont Stakes betting preview

June 9, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The first two legs of the Triple Crown have been nothing short of exciting and profitable for horse players. With a large field of 12 we can expect even more great competition in the Belmont Stakes. Let’s take a quick glance at the field!

Master of Hounds (10-1) I love the way he was bobbing and weaving through traffic at the end of the Kentucky Derby. It was his first start on dirt and he showed no signs of dislike for the surface. The European runner is bred to go the distance and will have a big shot turning for home.

Stay Thirsty (20-1) Really didn’t stand a chance in the Kentucky Derby. It is hard to like him here, but I never count Todd Pletcher out.

Ruler On Ice (30-1) He is over matched. Would take a miracle for him to win. We all know miracles can happen after Da Tara in 2008. I’m still not holding my breath though.

Santiva (15-1) This could be the wise guy horse. He finished up very strongly in the Kentucky Derby and as a son of Giant’s Causeway he is a prime candidate to stay the trip. Should be a good tactical spot behind the pace setter Shackleford.

Brilliant Speed (15-1) He didn’t embarrass himself in the Kentucky Derby. Still, it would take a huge effort for the Bluegrass Stakes victor to win here.

Nehro (6-1) Perhaps he was compromised by a slow pace in the Run for the Roses. Jockey Corey Nakatani did all he could to win, but in the end Animal Kingdom couldn’t be denied. He enters this race much fresher and could end his streak of second place finishes with a trip to the winners circle.

Monzon (30-1) Toss him out of the top spot. He hasn’t really got much of a shot.

Prime Cut (15-1) Was third behind two very serious racehorses in Alternation and Adios Charlie last out. Word on the street say he is working very well and trainer Neil Howard is over the moon about him. Dark horse contender.

Animal Kingdom (2-1) The Kentucky Derby winner was awe inspiring at Churchill Downs, but not so much so at Pimlico. He chased a quick pace, but in the end he wasn’t able to pass Shackleford. Since that effort he has worked a sharp four furlong and all media accounts are that he loves the surface at Belmont. Animal Kingdom is bred to go far and this could be his best race yet if he fires.

Mucho Macho Man (10-1) Finished third in the Kentucky Derby, but failed to show up in the Preakness where he was 6th. Trainer Kathy Ritvo has given the mount to Ramon Dominguez for this race. That could be the difference maker. Note that he worked a snappy five furlongs in :59 2/5 B after the Preakness.

Isn’t He Perfect (30-1) Finished 9th beaten 11 lengths in the Preakness. No chance today.

Shackleford (9-2) Shocked us all with a huge win in the Preakness Stakes last out. He gets another favorable pace set up today. Once again a threat to go wire to wire.

Consider betting the Belmont Stakes online with Twin Spires. New players are eligible for a $100 sign up bonus. That will go a long way toward betting your Belmont Stakes pick! While you’re at it grab the official Gradedstakes.com Belmont Stakes selections by clicking the Buy Now button below!

 

Belmont Stakes Picks
 

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Brooklyn Handicap-Belmont Stakes Double

June 8, 2011 By Leave a Comment

 

The Belmont Stakes card always provides plenty of chances for a good score. Whether it be the million-dollar guaranteed pick 4, the huge Win-Place-Show pools in each race or the massive exacta/trifecta/superfecta pools in the stakes races, the pool sizes demand taking a shot at them. Solid handicapping and a little luck will lead to a better than average payout because of the larger pools. One wager piques the interest a little more than normal. That bet is the Brooklyn Handicap – Belmont Stakes Double, covering the two stakes run on consecutive days (Friday-Saturday). The reason for this is an average payout of $390.

The Brooklyn-Belmont Double provides handicappers to hook up two one mile and one-half races on one bet. This bet has only been offered for three years, but each year it has paid over $280. The best payout occurred in its first year, when the Delosvientos – Da’ Tara Double paid $550. That year also had the two smallest field sizes for each race, with 6 and 9 runners respectively. In 2009, the Eldaafer – Summer Bird Double paid $337.50, and last year’s Alcomo – Drosselmeyer Double paid $283. While the payoff has declined in each year, the field size went up each year, with 8 in the Brooklyn and 12 in the Belmont last year. This year brings only 5 runners into the Brooklyn, but 12 (possibly 13) runners in the Belmont.

Our top pick for the Brooklyn Handicap will be Eldadeer. This race will be his third start off the shelf and he owns three wins over the track. He figures to get overlooked after two lack luster races to start 2011 and a starter allowance win last out. Don’t count him out though. This A.P. Indy gelding loves to route and will be there on the wire. For Brooklyn-Handicap-Belmont Stakes pick as well as full card selections on Saturday, check out the Buy Now button on the side of this page!

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Noble’s Promise guns down Attaboyroy in Grade 3 Aristides Stakes

June 5, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Our top selection in the Aristides Stakes from Churchill Downs, Noble’s Promise, gunned down Attaboyroy in the stretch to become a millionaire on Saturday. He returned $5.20 for a $2 win bet while improving his record at six furlongs to 2 for 2. Trainer Ken McPeek won the preceding Dogwood Stakes with Salty Strike.

The sprinter is likely to target the Vanderbilt and Forego later this year before returning to race under the twin spires in the Breeders Cup Sprint. It certainly seems like he has found his calling going short. It’s never smart to mess with what works, but I think the colt would excel going one mile. Given the fact that Big Drama towers over the entire division, Noble’s Promise might find easier targets in mile races.

Saturday didn’t see much racing action worth talking about. The only bet I placed was a $100 win wager on Noble’s Promise. I’m trying to save my ammo for the upcoming Belmont Stakes where Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom will try to defeat Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford. Let’s not forget Nehro will be there too. To get our picks for that race click the “Buy Now” button the side of this page.

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2011 Belmont Stakes picks, selections & betting tips

June 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment

I’ve always done very well at Belmont Park. I don’t know what exactly it is about the Big Sandy, but my handicapping thrives there. What better proof than when I nailed the $378 exacta in the Metropolitan Mile COLD on Memorial Day? I also had winner Tizway ($8.20) as my top selection.

Take a look at the success we have had leading up to the Belmont Stakes in the three-year-old division:

Peter Pan Stakes: Alternation ($9.40)

Southwest Stakes: Archarcharch ($31)

Florida Derby: Dialed In ($7.80)

Arkansas Derby: Archarcharch ($52.40)

Fountain of Youth Stakes: Soldat ($4.80 with $13.80 Exacta COLD)

Those are the just ones I felt like posting about.

I do very well with top class horses like those that will be racing at Belmont. What better example than when I picked 5 winners in a row at Saratoga last year? The $2 parlay of those 5 races was worth $883. During that same meet I singled Blame in the Whitney to key a $2,564 Pick 4. I plan on doing just as well in the Belmont Stakes. New York racing has treated me well and it will continue to do so on Belmont Stakes day.

This year I plan to provide picks and plays for the following stakes races:

  • Grade 1 Belmont Stakes
  • Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes
  • Grade 1 Acorn Stakes
  • Grade 1 Manhatten Stakes
  • Grade 2 Truth North Stakes
  • Grade 2 Woody Stephens Stakes
  • Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap (Friday)

The above picks will be in addition to select plays from the card at Belmont Park on Saturday. I plan to focus on Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 6 plays in addition to exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets where I see fit to do so. I’ve got big hopes for the Belmont Stakes card. You can join in on the action by clicking the link below! Once your purchase is complete I will send a password to a secure page containing your selections. Don’t miss out. I’ll be on hand via phone or email all day Saturday to help you along if needed.

Those wishing to buy full card selections will also be able to do so!

For those wishing to bet the Belmont online, check out Twin Spires. Signing up through this site will get players a $100 sign up bonus. It is where I will bet betting this weekend!

Belmont Stakes Picks

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History says Nehro will have a big shot in Belmont Stakes

June 2, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Belmont Stakes next week could have a match-up of the Derby winner and the Preakness winner in Animal Kingdom and Shackleford. One horse who split the two in the Derby is Nehro.  The son of Mineshaft finished 2nd to Animal Kingdom, then skipped the Preakness to point to the Belmont Stakes. This decision by owner Ahmed Zayat and trainer Steve Asmussen was somewhat decried in certain pockets of the internet, since Nehro was on a roll of seconds in his last three starts. However, recent history could tells us they probably made a good decision.

With this year’s Belmont, not only Nehro, but Master of Hounds (5th), Santiva (6th), Brilliant Speed (7th) and Stay Thirsty (12th) will be trying to win the Belmont after skipping the Preakness. None of these would match the dramatic switch of 2000, when Commendable came off a 17th place finish in the Derby to win the Belmont. 30 horses have done this in the last 11 years, and they made up thirteen of the thirty-three on the board finishers. Four of the thirteen were horses who had hit the board (which make up eight of the 30).

In the past 11 years, the connections of five second-place finishers in the Derby have chosen to skip the Preakness and wait for the Derby for a variety of reasons. Three have hit the board in the Belmont, with all three finishing at least second, with only Empire Maker improving on his second to win in 2003. The other two, who finished off the board, were Invisible Ink in 2001 (5th) and Ice Box (9th) last year. Nehro will hope that he continues the positive trend with a place-or-better finish.

So there are few stats to help you decide whether or not to use Nehro or any of the other horses taking the direct route from the Twin Spire to the Big Sandy.

 

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Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man prepare for Preakness as Nehro waits for Belmont

May 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment

All indications are that Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom is ready to run a monster race in the Preakness this weekend. Check out what owner Barry Irwin had to say on Facebook yesterday.

Animal Kingdom galloped on a wet dirt track this morning and relished the going. We keep throwing curves at this guy and just keeps knocking the ball out of the park. He may not even be human!

The son of Leroidesanimaux has not and will not work before the Preakness. This is a good move as he is completely fit after going a mile and a quarter so recently. I’m really excited to find out if he is the real deal in the Preakness.

A colt that did have a work is Mucho Macho Man.I have to admit I was skeptical about Mucho Macho Man, but his last out effort to be third in the Kentucky Derby has really won me over. The big hulking colt has a ton of heart and is only going to get better from here on out. The late foal wont even “really” turn three until next month.

This morning he worked four furlongs in :49 1/5 with splits of 12 2/5 and 24 1/5 while galloping out five furlongs in 1:03 3/5. Reports say he was evenly the whole way and the exercise rider said he wanted to do more. Folks, this colt might be sitting on a huge race for the Preakness on Saturday.

One horse that could be sitting on a big one, but we will never know, is Nehro. The son of Mineshaft is doing exceptionally well by all reports, but his connections are going to wait for the Belmont Stakes. This is a wise move as the Preakness would be his fourth race in eight weeks.

Nehro’s trainer Steve Asmussen once quoted the old saying “You get paid for what you do, but you pay for what you do.” Racing him in the Preakness might be sacrificing his future even if he runs well. Look for him next out in the Belmont Stakes.

One of the best things about this years Kentucky Derby is that the best three horses ran 1-2-3. I love when that happens. Now let’s see what happens at Pimlico.

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Connections mulling a return to racing for Da’ Tara

March 1, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Da’ Tara provided one of the more surprising moments in recent racing history when he took the field from flag fall to thats all in the 2008 Belmont Stakes. He shocked us all in that win where Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Big Brown was heavily favored to complete a sweep of the Triple Crown. He was sent off at odds of 38.5-1, but probably should have been closer to 50-1.

The beautiful black horse hasn’t won since pulling that upset and he did not race at all in 2010. The connections tried to secure a stud deal, but that did not happen. This is quite surprising given that Da’ Tara is moderately well bred and a classic winner. I’ve seen much worse looking horses sent off to the shed.

Owner Robert LaPenta sent the horse to auction where he was purchased for $180k by a close friend and adviser, David Foye. LaPenta retains a small interest in the horse. Foye has been quoted saying that he wants to get this horse a much deserved stud deal, but in the mean time the six-year-old might get another shot at racing. Nick Zito will retain his title as trainer of the horse.

I’m not sure if he can still cut it in top stakes competition, but Da ‘Tara surely deserves a shot in the shed. I’ve got a feeling that before its all said and done he will get his chance.

 

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Dave in Dixie Belmont Stakes bound

May 28, 2010 By 2 Comments


It looks like John Sadler’s Dave in Dixie will be racing in the Test of Champions on June 5. Owner Ike Thrash made the decision to send the colt to the Belmont Stakes. He was last seen finishing 5th in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.

John Sadler has had a hot stable of late, taking the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and Grade 3 Derby Trial. Sadler is well known on the west coast and those on the east coast will soon know his name of they do not already. Some of his best runners include Hurricane Ike, Sidney’s Candy, Line of David, and Evita Argentina.

Dave in Dixie has flashed plenty of talent. He won first out and was then thrashed in his next start against graded company. He rallied to finish second behind Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes earlier this year. It’s tough to say how he will fare against top competition in the Belmont Stakes. You  certainly have to think he is on the outside looking in.

Dave in Dixie is a son of Dixie Union and out of a Wavering Monarch mare. Distance shouldn’t be a problem. However, class could be. This colt hasn’t been able to truly answer the bell in stakes company. Jockey Calvin Borel will be an asset as he tries to do so in the Belmont Stakes. Borel is riding hot right now and he fits the colts  running style very well.

It would take a monumental effort for Dave in Dixie to win the Belmont Stakes. He could hit the board though. What do YOU think?

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Stay Put Belmont Stakes bound

May 19, 2010 By Leave a Comment

I remember the day that Stay Put broke his maiden. The reason why is because I bet him. He closed nicely to beat a strong field at odds of about 11-1 if my memory is right. I knew that day he might turn out to be a stakes horse.

So far, he has failed twice in stakes company. He finished fifth in both the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He will give stakes company another shot in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes.

Stay Put, a son of Broke Vow out a Dixieland Band mare, will relish the 1.5 miles distance. He closes hard and seems to be getting good at the right time. He has won twice since breaking his maiden with both of those scores coming in allowance company. Trainer Steve Margolis said he came out of his last race very well and he believes the colt is moving forward.

He will be a live long shot in a Belmont Stakes that will lack star power after the defections of Kentcky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky. The likely favorite at this point is Ice Box. With so many closers in the race it might be wise to go with a stalker or speed horse. However, it is tough to know for sure until the entries are released.

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Belmont Stakesb

June 7, 2008 By Leave a Comment

Check out the official GradedStakes.com and Bettorsworld.com Belmont Stakes picks here! I can’t post them here unfortunately, but I encourage you to check them out. I have to leave for my internship soon, but I encourage you to take a hard look at Lady of Venice today in the 7th at Belmont. I really love her last race, and she should be ready to run. I wish I had time to really analyze the races for today, they are going to be great. This is the truly a GREAT card at Belmont today! Good luck today, and get out to your local track and bet on Lady of Venice! I’ve got to run!!!

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