February 5, 2012

Posts Comments

You are here: Home / Archives for big drama

2011 Delta Jackpot Stakes has Kentucky Derby implications

November 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Sabercat wins the Garden State Stakes

The $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs will almost assuredly impact the 2012 Kentucky Derby. The winner  is guaranteed a spot in the starting gate of the Run for the Roses because of the massive amount of graded stakes earnings accumulated by winning the Jackpot. Even the second place finisher will do well in that respect.

The last three winners of the Delta Jackpot have experienced mild success, but that success hasn’t come in the month of May at Churchill Downs. In fact, none of the three even made it to the race.

Big Drama, winner of the Jackpot in 2008, didn’t have a great three-year-old campaign, but he won the Breeders Cup Sprint as a four-year-old. The 2009 winner, Rule, looked to be kicking away in the Florida Derby, but faded to third. He hasn’t been much since. Gourmet Dinner who won the race last year, finished second in the Fountain of Youth in his last start.

Bob Baffert’s Drill (Lawyer Ron x Cat Dancer by Storm Cat) will be favored in the 2011 Jackpot. He was last seen finishing up the track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but before that he was second in the Grade 1 Norfolk and a winner in the Del Mar Futurity. Removing blinkers could have had something to do with his bad effort last out. They will go back on this time. Martin Garcia retains the mount.

Obviously Drill is a wonderful colt, but the price is going to be unacceptable. I like Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat x Miner’s Blessing by Forty Niner) just as much and I’m going to get a much better price on him. The Asmussen trainee was last seen exploding to a big victory in the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth. He sat right off the pace and annihilated the field when Angel Serpa asked him for run. I’m hoping for a similar trip in this race under Gerard Melancon.

Going to bet the Delta Jackpot? Considering doing so at Twinspires.com where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , ,

2011 Breeders Cup Sprint projects to be a tough race

October 13, 2011 By 2 Comments

By Robert Boswell

This year the thoroughbred racing scene as a whole has lacked a bit of clarity and the male sprint division was no different. Just take a look back; there have been eight Grade 1 sprint races on the main track for 3-year-olds or older, producing eight different winners. Just when one sprinter looked like he would take the lead with an impressive victory, another would jump up and beat him next time out.

Early in the year Aikenite shot to the top with consecutive Grade 2 wins in the Commonwealth at Keeneland and the Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day, both at seven furlongs. The Todd Pletcher trainee has since had trouble finding the winners’ circle, most recently beaten a whisker by New Zealand import Hoofit in Grade 3 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix, a Win and You’re In race for the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Hoofit, trained by red-hot Graham Motion and undefeated in two starts since coming to the U.S., is not Breeders’ Cup nominated, so his connections would have to supplement him to the race for $200,000.

Also not Breeders’ Cup nominated is Giant Ryan, winner of six consecutive races going back to a state-bred optional claimer at Aqueduct. He is sired by Freud, a full brother to Giant’s Causeway, and trained by Bisnath Parboo, who could be this year’s Cinderella story. Until this year Parboo was barely making it as a trainer in New York, and didn’t have 20 wins to his name. Then up came Giant Ryan winning six in a row, all at the Breeders’ Cup Sprint distance of six furlongs with the last two being Win and You’re In events. Despite winning his fifth straight in the Grade 2 Smile Spring Handicap at Calder, he gained little respect, taking the star-studded Grade 1 Vosburgh at odds of 12-1 in wire-to-wire fashion last out. Parboo, who trains for his son Shivananda, says they have already agreed to pay the supplemental fee of $100,000 to enter the Breeders’ Cup.

The Vosburgh, though loaded with talent, was not contested without controversy, as jockey Rajiv Maragh was suspended a week for his ride aboard Calibrachoa. Right out of the gate Maragh came over on projected pace presence Apriority, which in turn shut off Bob Baffert’s Euroears, who was also expected to be near the front. They finished seventh and eighth respectively in the eight-horse field and Baffert was characteristically outspoken about the incident, saying via Twitter that he was “glad to hear that Belmont stewards are going to suspended Rajiv…” while also calling the seven day suspension “lite.” The Langfuhr seven year old was coming off an impressive win over Smiling Tiger in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar, and a solid second in the Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen.

Another who showed promise earlier in the year is Trappe Shot. After winning his 2011 debut in an overnight stakes at Belmont, the Tapit colt splashed to one of the most impressive victories of the year in the Grade 2 True North Handicap on the Belmont undercard. Sean Avery beat him by a nose in the Grade 1 Alfred G Vanderbilt at Saratoga before he finished a disappointing fourth in the Vosburgh. Trappe Shot went off a solid favorite, due to Big Drama skipping the race with a fever.

By missing the Vosburgh, trainer David Fawkes allows Big Drama only two starts since he wired the field at 5-1 in last year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. After winning the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream in record-breaking fashion, Fawkes gave Big Drama a lengthy break before bringing him back in the Whippleton, an overnight stakes at Calder. He will train up to the Breeders’ Cup and Fawkes says the fever has not affected his training regimen.

Three time Grade 1 winner Smiling Tiger is expected to come from Jeff Bonde’s barn in California again this year to contend after a show finish as third choice a year ago. Following wins in two graded stakes in a row, he could only manage sixth behind impressive Aikenite in the Churchill Downs. Returning to California, the four year old took the Grade 1 Triple Bend at Hollywood, then was runner-up in the Bing Crosby and fourth in the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. Also coming from California is Amazombie, winner of the Grade 1 Ancient Title at Santa Anita, a Win and You’re In race. The win comes following a three race streak of third place finishes.

Two three year olds are expected to go as well. The Factor, also trained by Baffert, has won the Grade 2 San Vicente, the Grade 2 Rebel, and the Pat O’Brien. Wesley Ward’s Flashpoint has reverted back to sprinting after being on the Triple Crown trail, and captured the Grade 3 Jersey Shore at Monmouth before folding in the Phoenix most recently.

Other possible starters include Hamazing Destiny, last year’s runner-up and recent third in the Phoenix; Camp Victory, second in both the Triple Bend and Pat O’Brien; three year old Justin Phillip, winner of a sloppy Grade 2 Woody Stephens on Belmont Day; Force Freeze, second in the Vosburgh, and Apriority.

You may like Big Drama or finally be on the Giant Ryan bandwagon, but for me the Breeders’ Cup Sprint is just a huge puzzle. While the purse has been lowered to $1.5 million, the competition is as tougher than ever.

**Plan to bet the Breeders Cup Sprint? Check out our Horse Betting guide as well our our Facebook and Twitter pages for the latest information!**

Filed Under: Breeders Cup Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Super Saturday Breeders Cup Preview from Belmont Park

September 30, 2011 By 2 Comments

Be sure to tune into our Facebook and Twitter pages for live thoughts before and after the races

The days are rolling off the calender and the 2011 Breeders Cup is rapidly approaching. Before that we have Super Saturday at Belmont Park which provides an excellent preview of the coming championship day. Often these big days leading into the Breeders Cup can disappoint, but the fields for this year’s edition of the Flower Bowl, Kelso, Vosburgh and Jockey Club Gold Cup have me salivating. Let’s take a look.

Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational

We aren’t likely to see a surprise in this one. If the favored Stacelita runs her race there is little to no chance she loses. The French bred mare won the Beverley D last out in her first try for trainer Chad Brown. The 2009 French Oaks winner just appears too good to lose this one.

Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational

I’m the first person to try and beat a favorite, but Cape Blanco appears to have this group over a barrel. The Irish bred son of Galileo won the Arlington Million last out and before that the Man O’ War over this Belmont turf course. Last year’s winner, Winchester, and this year’s Manhattan winner, Mission Approved, rate the best chances for an upset. However, it is unlikely to happen.

Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational 

This is as wide open a race as you will find and it’s loaded with stars like last years Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama. He hasn’t lost since then, but has had significant time off racing just twice. A stat for him that jumps off the page is his 6 wins from 7 starts at the distance. His only loss came to Majesticperfection who was an absolute monster. While there are plenty of reasons to like him, I’ve got to go another direction because the competitiveness of the event.

My top pick will be Euroears who has been a new animal since joining Bob Baffert’s barn. He was last seen winning the Bing Crosby at Del Mar in track record breaking fashion over top animals Smiling Tiger and Amazombie. The seven-year-old is an absolute rocket ship and should gun from the start with JJ Castellano in the irons. I’ll probably use him and perhaps another one or two horses on the Pick 4 and play another ticket with an ALL in this race. Anything could happen in the 2011 Vosburgh.

Grade 2 Kelso Handicap

You can call this the “Uncle Mo Show”. The most popular horse in racing will get his first win since taking the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park. I loved the way he ran in defeat last out in the King’s Bishop. The colt proved he can rate effectively and narrowly lost to a sharp horse while earning a fat 106 Beyer Speed Figure. Don’t even bother trying to beat him. It’s just not going to happen unless something goes seriously wrong.

Grade 1 Beldame Invitational

The brilliant Havre de Grace is favored here based on her last out victory in the Woodward against males. This race might not be as simple as it seems though. The streaking filly Royal Delta will be a handful, and Todd Pletcher says reigning champ Life At Ten is the best looking horse in his barn right now. I’ll use all three on my Pick 4 and make Royal Delta my selection.

Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup

Rodman had a rough trip before fading last out in the Whitney. Three back in the Met Mile he posted a career best speed figure. I’m going to take him as my top selection as a price and hope he can beat the favorites to the finish. After him, Flat Out is the most interesting option. We had him as our top pick when he broke through at 14-1 in the Suburban and he has run two solid races since then.

All Stakes Pick 4: ALL/3/1,2,5/1,3

**Plan to do some Belmont betting? Check out our Horse Betting page. The Horse Racing Games section of our site is also worth a look!**

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2011 Breeders Cup Future Odds & Picks

September 6, 2011 By 2 Comments

 

Wynn|Encore has posted a future book of odds for the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup. I always like to take a look at stuff like this. Let’s break down each race with a look at key contenders and some of the plays I would make if  given the chance.

Breeders Cup Classic

This is going to be quite an interesting race in 2011. The older horse division is quite lacking and the three year olds have been largely inconsistent. This leaves room for two types of horses we normally wouldn’t consider all too much. That is a filly or invader from overseas.

The latter may come in the form of 6-1 morning line favorite So You Think. The New Zealand bred is a winner of 12 races from 17 starts and he most recently took the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes. Before that he beat 2010 Arc winner Workforce in the Eclipse Stakes. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never been shy about sending horses to America and with a $5 million purse on the line it isn’t hard to imagine this one making the trip.

My first choice for a wager would be Uncle Mo at a fat price of 40-1. He couldn’t have been any more impressive in the King’s Bishop where he raced off a very long layoff and proved he could rate while being nipped a nose at one of the hardest distances around. The colt has more pure talent than any horse in training and if he can put it all together it’s hard for me to see him losing. The 10 furlongs distance is a question, but at the huge price of 40-1 he is well worth the risk. He should race again in the Pennsylvania Derby and then target the Classic, but nothing is set in stone.

After Uncle Mo I would have to snatch up his stable mate Stay Thirsty at 12-1. The late blooming son of Bernardini has proven himself with three strong runs in the Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes. If he can run as well under the twin spires as he does in New York then he will likely be among the first 3 choices on race day.

It would be hard for me to talk anyone off the filly Havre de Grace at 9-1. She won the Woodward easily and if a big time European horse doesn’t show up she could among the top 2 or 3 choices on race day.

Breeders Cup Ladies Classic

I’m not too wild about this race from a future betting perspective. The top two in the division are Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. The casino knows that and both are 2-1. Hardly any value taking a 2-1 shot two months before the race. Two fillies I think stand a chance of upsetting are the three year olds It’s Tricky and Zazu. The former is a good price at 14-1 with the latter sitting at 20-1. It’s Tricky posted strong efforts in the Mother Goose as well as the CCA Oaks. If she rebounds with a win in the Cotillion she will be a much lower price on Breeders Cup Friday. Zazu was most recently second in her first try against older horses in the Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar.

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

This is another race where we could see Uncle Mo. If he ends up here I think he rolls so I have to go with him at 25-1. I believe he ends up in the Classic, but I’d hate to see him here and not have a few bucks to win. After Mo I like the rapidly improving Justin Phillip. The Zayat owned colt won the Woody Stephens Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard and was most recently third behind Caleb’s Posse and Uncle Mo in the King’s Bishop. If he keeps improving he will have a big shot at an enormous price of 30-1. He is currently targeting the Vosburgh and may be Breeders Cup Sprint bound, but at such a huge price it’s worth taking a chance.

TwinSpires.com

Breeders Cup Sprint

The Sprint has always been a race where something crazy can happen. Last year we saw Big Drama take the field gate to wire at 6-1 and he is favored to do so again at the same price in the future book. On his best day it’s hard to see anyone competing with him, but the horse has had just 2 races since last year. If he makes it to the gate and he is the same horse that won last year he will be strong.

As far as horse betting goes, I’ve got to look in another direction. Last year’s third place finisher, Smiling Tiger, is being offered at 14-1. The son of Hold That Tiger has won 3 graded races this year and has proven he likes the track/distance at Churchill Downs. When he’s on his game he can run with anyone.

Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf

It’s tough for me to get excited about this race. I’ve never been much of a fan of turf fillies. The favorite is the razor sharp Midday at 3-1. The mare won the Group 1 Nassau two back and was second to Twice Over in the Juddmonte International last out. She won this race in 2009 and was second last year.

Summer Soiree is an interesting option at 35-1. She was last seen winning the Del Mar Oaks. She is a lightning quick filly, but could have a tough time at the distance.

Daveron, winner of the Ballston Spa last out, should be considered at 30-1. She is only now coming into her own and could be peaking for Team Valor in the Breeders Cup.

Breeders Cup Turf

The co-favorites to win this race are Aidan O’Brien’s Cape Blanco and So You Think at 5-1. We have already spoke about the latter in the Classic division. Cape Blanco has crushed the competition in his time in America with wins in the Man O’ War and Arlington Million. He should be a force if he makes it to the race, but taking him at 5-1 isn’t advisable.

Irish Derby and Secretariat Stakes winner Treasure Beach is definitely tempting at 20-1, but I worry that O’Brien would keep him home if Cape Blanco is doing well.

Breeders Cup Mile

Goldikova seems to have this race on lock down and she will try for a record fourth win in 2011. The mare is as good as they come and hasn’t slowed down. Her odds stand at 5/2 in the future book. The only horse I could really see beating her is Courageous Cat and his odds are too low at 5-1.

What do you think of the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup? Plan to make some bets? Check out our Horse Betting page to learn more.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gradedstakes.com Eclipse Awards Ballot

December 28, 2010 By 6 Comments

The above photo is of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. This years Eclipse Awards are every bit as exciting as last year when she took the top spot. I didn’t get a vote, but if I did here are the horses I would’ve selected. Let’s take a look!

Two-Year-Old Male: Uncle Mo wins this in an open and shut case. The son of Indian Charlie only raced three times, but won emphatically in each start. His Breeders Cup Juvenile victory is one of the most incredible I’ve ever seen. It will be exciting to see how he fares in 2011.

Two-Year-Old Female: Awesome Feather did everything asked of her in 6 starts this year. She capped it with a Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies win. Other interesting horses include Position Limit and Turbulent Descent. All three will be strong contenders in 2011, but the Breeders Cup winner gets the nod for the Eclipse Award.

Three-Year-Old Male: Lookin At Lucky has to take this on virtue of his wins in the Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational. The son of Smart Strike has one of the biggest hearts I’ve ever seen. The other horse here is Eskendereya. He only raced 3 times before retiring due to injury, but his win in the Wood Memorial was one of the most impressive performances I’ve ever seen by a sophomore runner.

Three-Year-Old Female: Blind Luck seems to know where the wire is. She won three races by a nose and another by a neck this year. Her best wins came in the Las Virgenes, Kentucky Oaks and Alabama Stakes. She was purchased for a measly $11k in 2008. Her rival, Havre de Grace, gets an honorable mention.

Older Horse: This division is another open and shut case in favor of Blame. He is the only horse to ever beat the legendary Zenyatta and he did so in the Breeders Cup Classic. I love his style of galloping horses down. He is a truly a throwback.

Older Female: Zenyatta gets this one for the third consecutive year. Relax ladies, she won’t be around to win it next year. You will get your chance.

Male Sprinter: This division is the first one with some room for debate. Even though I picked Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama to win that race, I do think others deserve consideration. My selection for this award is Majesticperfection. He won the head to head matchup with Big Drama and won twice as many races in total. He is one of the best sprinters I’ve seen in many years and its a damn shame he was injured and forced to retire. Smiling Tiger had a great year winning two Grade 1 races and missing a third by a nose.

Female Sprinter: This was a tough pick, but I went with Dubai Majesty over Franny Freud. The latter had her season ended by an injury after taking the Prioress. Dubai Majesty finished her year with a win in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. That put her over the top.

Male Turf Horse: It was a pretty sorry year for this division. I’ll give the nod to Champ Pegasus on virtue of his runner up performance in the Breeders Cup Turf. Rosario was bold to put him on the lead as this horse closed from 19 back to win a race earlier this year. His best win came in the Clement L. Hirsch. Most will probably go with Gio Ponti here and he deserves a look after running behind Goldikova in the Breeders Cup Mile.

Female Turf Horse: This is an easy pick. Although Goldikova only raced once in North America she deserves the award. The filly looked like she had a rocket in her rear end as she vaulted past them all in the Breeders Cup Mile. It was one of the best efforts all year and by FAR the best from this division. The ill fated Tuscan Evening gets an honorable mention for going a perfect 6 for 6.

Horse of the Year: Please refer to this post.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher wins this one in a rout. He took the Kentucky Derby and won much more money than any other trainer. He also took more Grade 1 races and more graded races overall. Bob Baffert, John Sadler, John Sheriffs and Steve Asmussen deserve mentions. Among the lower tier trainers Jamie Ness and Joe Woodard both had great years. Pletcher is the reigning king though.

Jockey: Although he didn’t win as many graded races as some, Ramon Dominguez is very deserving of this award. He rides circles around most of the New York colony and won more money than any other jockey this year. Dominguez is a great tactician and extremely underrated.

Apprentice: I don’t have a very strong opinion here, but I’ll go with top money earner and wins leader Omar Moreno. The young rider’s life is finally looking up after living through a civil war as a child. Click here to read more.

Owner: Jerry and Ann Moss deserve this one for keeping Zenyatta around. They did what was good for the game and we owe them a debt that can never be repaid. This award would be a good start though.

Stallion: I don’t have an opinion in this category, but Malibu Moon and Distorted Humor were 1-2 in wins earnings.

So there you have it, my picks for the 2010 Eclipse Awards. Official results will be released on January 17, 2011. Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts. I’d love to discuss the topic  and hear what you think!

Filed Under: Miscellaneous Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2010 Breeders Cup Sprint Preview

October 31, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Click here for information on how to get our Breeders Cup picks and selections!

The Breeders Cup Sprint is a crazy race. Last year I was alive to Gayego for several thousand dollars on the Pick 4. He ultimately finished 4th with a poor trip, behind a flurry of longshots topped by 25-1 shot Dancing In Silks. The gelding hasn’t been able to reproduce that effort since, and will not be making a title defense. The year before him we got to watch the scintillating Midnight Lute romp home after having raced only once prior to the Breeders Cup. He is pictured above. Let’s take a look at this years contenders.

Atta Boy Roy- This horse won the Churchill Downs Stakes on the Kentucky Derby under card this year. Initially, I thought he only won because Borel was on his back, but he has really improved since that effort. He was second to Majesticperfection in the Iowa Sprint Handicap, and the victor in the Remington Park Sprint Cup. The son of Tribunal enters this race after finishing off the board in a turf sprint. With Borel in the irons he holds a big chance.

Big Drama- It’s rare these days to see a horse stay in top form at 2, 3, and 4, but Big Drama has done it. At the age of 4 he may be even better than ever. He has raced 4 times this year with 2 wins and 2 second place finishes. The two times he lost were forgivable. The first time was to the magnificent majesticperfection who has since been retired. The second time was going a little further than he is suited to run. In his career this colt has won 4 times from 5 starts at the distance earning a career high Beyer of 108 along the way. Fawkes and Coa are live in the Breeders Cup Sprint with Big Drama.

Girolamo- The son of AP Indy put together a good campaign in 2009 before the connections tossed him to the wolves in the Classic. Since then he has raced only twice, winning the Vosburgh last out, and finishing 5th in the Forego. It seems to be the consensus opinion that he will be the favorite. I hope that is so, because he appears very beatable. His Vosburgh win was against a very weak group. Seems like a pretender to my eyes.

Kinsale King- This guy could pose some good value. He owns 5 wins from 7 starts at the distance, including a victory in the Dubai Golden Shaheen earlier this year. The layoff shouldn’t affect him as he has ran huge races on rest before. The biggest factor going against him is that he hasn’t raced over natural dirt. However, he is training well on it. The gelded son Yankee Victor makes perfect sense here.

Riley Tucker- I’ve never been too hot on this colt. He just never seems to put it all together. I say that in spite of his huge win in the Grade 3 Aristides. Something crazy would have to happen for him to win.

Smiling Tiger- This one comes from the barn of California trainer Jeff Bonde. He has wins in the Ancient Title and Bing Crosby this year. From what I’ve heard he is taking to the track at Churchill Downs. He ran a career best last out and will probably have to equal or even improve upon that effort to win here. I wouldn’t  be shocked to see him do so.

Warrior’s Reward- Trainer Ian Wilkes feels this race is a better fit than the Dirt Mile. He hasn’t won at the distance in two tries, but was a very hard closing second on this track last November. If they were going 7 furlongs I’d love this horse.  The only way he wins this thing is if the pace is torrid and he can pick up the pieces.

Wise Dan- Despite having just 4 starts, this guy has a chance here. He is a winner of three in a row, including a last out win in the Phoenix. He has trained like gangbusters since then. Jockey Rafael Bejarano has nothing but good things to say about him. He is up against the wall as an inexperienced horse, but definitely not without a chance to win.

So there you have it, our take on the Breeders Cup Sprint! Who do you like in the race? Leave a comment and discuss!

Click here for information on how to get our Breeders Cup picks and selections!

Filed Under: Breeders Cup Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,

Munnings favored to win the Grade 1 Kings Bishop Stakes

August 27, 2009 By Leave a Comment

**CLICK HERE TO GET OUR 2011 SARATOGA PICKS**

A contentious field of eight has gathered to try to win the Grade 1 $300,000 King’s Bishop Stakes over seven furlongs on the main track at Saratoga Racecourse. Last year’s race was won by Visionaire. Prior to that, Hard Spun took the race. The list of stars to have competed in this event is a mile long, and this years winner will certainly have a bright future.

Munnings is the morning line favorite at odds of 2-1. Though he is much hyped, he has yet to win a Grade 1 race. His last trip to the track was a third place finish in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. That was too far for the son of Speightstown to run, and he should perform better while returning to a sprint distance. The best win for Munnings to date came in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at Belmont Park.

Todd Pletcher is concerned about the rail draw for Munnings. Nobody wants the rail, especially when sprinting. Great horses overcome problems and I’ve heard only the highest of praise for Munnings. If he is as good as everyone thinks he is then it shouldn’t cost him the win. I’ll look elsewhere for my winner, but I’m certainly giving a big look to this one with John Velazquez in the irons.

I’ve grown fond of Big Drama. He is quite a temperamental horse as he proved prior to the start of the Grade 1  Preakness Stakes, and last out in the Grade 3West Virginia Derby. I love his early zip and the stubbornness that he shows to win races. He went crazy on the front end and wasn’t able to hold off Soul Warrior in the West Virginia Derby, but should do well turning back in distance. The son of Montbrook would be a perfect three for three at the distance if not for an iffy disqualification in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes.

He has enough early speed to be close or to take the lead. I expect jockey Eibar Coa to try and go wire to wire. This colt always shows up with a strong race. His only off the board finish came against fierce competition in the Preakness Stakes, where he ended up fifth. I’d like to see him calm before the race. He clearly holds a strong hand for trainer David Fawkes.

Vineyard Haven is the only Grade 1 winner in the race, but will be making his first start since finishing fourth in Dubai back in February. The son of Lido Palace has been training here at Saratoga since early July, but will probably be a bit short coming off the shelf. He has good early speed, but his running style might have changed since his freshman campaign. I won’t be using him on top.

There was a split second when I thought Capt. Candyman Can might run Quality Road down last out in the Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes. The gelding ran a strong race, but was not able to get by Quality Road. The gelded son of Candy Ride has never lost at this distance and looks primed for a peak effort.

This will be a good one for horse betting. I’ll go with Big Drama at 3-1. Who do you like in the King’s Bishop Stakes?

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: , , , , ,