Blind Luck

2011 Breeders Cup Future Odds & Picks

September 6, 2011 By Ryan Patterson 2 Comments

Wynn|Encore has posted a future book of odds for the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup. I always like to take a look at stuff like this. Let’s break down each race with a look at key contenders and some of the plays I would make if given the chance.

Breeders Cup Classic

This is going to be quite an interesting race in 2011. The older horse division is quite lacking and the three year olds have been largely inconsistent. This leaves room for two types of horses we normally wouldn’t consider all too much. That is a filly or invader from overseas.

The latter may come in the form of 6-1 morning line favorite So You Think. The New Zealand bred is a winner of 12 races from 17 starts and he most recently took the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes. Before that he beat 2010 Arc winner Workforce in the Eclipse Stakes. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never been shy about sending horses to America and with a $5 million purse on the line it isn’t hard to imagine this one making the trip.

My first choice for a wager would be Uncle Mo at a fat price of 40-1. He couldn’t have been any more impressive in the King’s Bishop where he raced off a very long layoff and proved he could rate while being nipped a nose at one of the hardest distances around. The colt has more pure talent than any horse in training and if he can put it all together it’s hard for me to see him losing. The 10 furlongs distance is a question, but at the huge price of 40-1 he is well worth the risk. He should race again in the Pennsylvania Derby and then target the Classic, but nothing is set in stone.

After Uncle Mo I would have to snatch up his stable mate Stay Thirsty at 12-1. The late blooming son of Bernardini has proven himself with three strong runs in the Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes. If he can run as well under the twin spires as he does in New York then he will likely be among the first 3 choices on race day.

It would be hard for me to talk anyone off the filly Havre de Grace at 9-1. She won the Woodward easily and if a big time European horse doesn’t show up she could among the top 2 or 3 choices on race day.

Breeders Cup Ladies Classic

I’m not too wild about this race from a future betting perspective. The top two in the division are Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. The casino knows that and both are 2-1. Hardly any value taking a 2-1 shot two months before the race. Two fillies I think stand a chance of upsetting are the three year olds It’s Tricky and Zazu. The former is a good price at 14-1 with the latter sitting at 20-1. It’s Tricky posted strong efforts in the Mother Goose as well as the CCA Oaks. If she rebounds with a win in the Cotillion she will be a much lower price on Breeders Cup Friday. Zazu was most recently second in her first try against older horses in the Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar.

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

This is another race where we could see Uncle Mo. If he ends up here I think he rolls so I have to go with him at 25-1. I believe he ends up in the Classic, but I’d hate to see him here and not have a few bucks to win. After Mo I like the rapidly improving Justin Phillip. The Zayat owned colt won the Woody Stephens Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard and was most recently third behind Caleb’s Posse and Uncle Mo in the King’s Bishop. If he keeps improving he will have a big shot at an enormous price of 30-1. He is currently targeting the Vosburgh and may be Breeders Cup Sprint bound, but at such a huge price it’s worth taking a chance.

Breeders Cup Sprint

The Sprint has always been a race where something crazy can happen. Last year we saw Big Drama take the field gate to wire at 6-1 and he is favored to do so again at the same price in the future book. On his best day it’s hard to see anyone competing with him, but the horse has had just 2 races since last year. If he makes it to the gate and he is the same horse that won last year he will be strong.

As far as horse betting goes, I’ve got to look in another direction. Last year’s third place finisher, Smiling Tiger, is being offered at 14-1. The son of Hold That Tiger has won 3 graded races this year and has proven he likes the track/distance at Churchill Downs. When he’s on his game he can run with anyone.

Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf

It’s tough for me to get excited about this race. I’ve never been much of a fan of turf fillies. The favorite is the razor sharp Midday at 3-1. The mare won the Group 1 Nassau two back and was second to Twice Over in the Juddmonte International last out. She won this race in 2009 and was second last year.

Summer Soiree is an interesting option at 35-1. She was last seen winning the Del Mar Oaks. She is a lightning quick filly, but could have a tough time at the distance.

Daveron, winner of the Ballston Spa last out, should be considered at 30-1. She is only now coming into her own and could be peaking for Team Valor in the Breeders Cup.

Breeders Cup Turf

The co-favorites to win this race are Aidan O’Brien’s Cape Blanco and So You Think at 5-1. We have already spoke about the latter in the Classic division. Cape Blanco has crushed the competition in his time in America with wins in the Man O’ War and Arlington Million. He should be a force if he makes it to the race, but taking him at 5-1 isn’t advisable.

Irish Derby and Secretariat Stakes winner Treasure Beach is definitely tempting at 20-1, but I worry that O’Brien would keep him home if Cape Blanco is doing well.

Breeders Cup Mile

Goldikova seems to have this race on lock down and she will try for a record fourth win in 2011. The mare is as good as they come and hasn’t slowed down. Her odds stand at 5/2 in the future book. The only horse I could really see beating her is Courageous Cat and his odds are too low at 5-1.

What do you think of the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup? Plan to make some bets? Check out our Horse Betting page to learn more.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: 2011 breeders cup, big drama, blind luck, Breeders Cup, breeders cup classic, breeders cup dirt mile, breeders cup filly & mare turf, breeders cup future odds, breeders cup ladies classic, breeders cup sprint, breeding cup betting, cape blanco, courageous cat, daveron, goldikova, havre de grace, it's tricky, justin phillip, midday, smiling tiger, so you think, stay thirsty, summer soiree, treasure beach, uncle mo, zazu

Twirling Candy prepares for Pacific Classic

August 22, 2011 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

Twirling Candy is an incredibly fast horse. No sane person would deny that fact. The son of Candy Ride owns 7 wins from 10 starts including triumphs in the Malibu Stakes, Del Mar Derby, Strub Stakes and Californian Stakes.

He has had three chances to break through and prove himself as the top horse in the country. Those three races were the Goodwood Stakes, Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup. Coincidentally, those races are also his only defeats.

Trainer John Sadler will now try to vindicate the colt he believes to be the best in America with a win in the Pacific Classic. He sent him out for a work Sunday morning in which he covered one mile in 1:37 4/5 and galloped out 1 ⅛ in 1:50.

Bettors are likely to focus attention on the filly Blind Luck after her triumph over Havre de Grace in the Delaware Handicap. She has been dominate against the girls, but asking her to go 10 furlongs against males is a tall order. Combine this with Twirling Candy falling short in the Hollywood Gold Cup and you are likely to get a very square price on a horse that is clearly best when he puts it all together.

I don’t make picks for races without seeing the PPs first, but Twirling Candy is an intriguing option. He is going to figure it out against Grade 1 older horses sooner or later. The Pacific Classic might be his time.

Filed Under: Horse Racing News Tagged With: blind luck, del mar betting, pacific classic, twirling candy

2011 Delaware Handicap betting preview

July 13, 2011 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

The Delaware Handicap is one of my favorite races every year. The 10 furlongs distance makes it a great handicap race for 3+ fillies and mares. It is rated as a Grade 2, but needs to be upgraded to a Grade 1 ASAP. Last year’s winner Life At Ten will seek to defend her title against newcomers Havre de Grace and Blind Luck who have formed an interesting rivalry. Let’s try to find the winner!

Life At Ten (Malibu Moon x Rahrahsixboombah by Rahy) Her form last year was spectacular, but it seems something snapped at Churchill Downs on Breeders Cup day. Her three races since then have been lackluster. The extra ground that this race offers is a positive and her works appear to be a little stronger. She gets nine pounds on the favorite and will be near the pace. It’s hard to not like her a little given the connections and past success. David Cohen gets up for Todd Pletcher at 5-1.

Thundering Emilia (Thunder Gulch x Saint Emilia by Saint Ballado) Ran well in her US debut off a long rest to be second in a minor stakes race here at Delaware Park. Could be a pace factor and will be much stronger in her second race of the year. Despite that, she is in deep against some of the best fillies in the country. Michael Matz trains and Julien Pimental gets the call to ride at 20-1.

Havre de Grace (Saint Liam x Easter Bunnette by Carson City) Arguably the best horse in training, male or female. Her three wins this year have been nothing short of awe inspiring and she has shown no signs of letting up. Look for her to sit second or third most of the way and blast off when the jock starts chirping at her. This lass is the one to beat at 4/5 for trainer Larry Jones and jockey Ramon Dominguez.

Love’s Blush (Not For Love x Blushing Broad by Broad Brush) Was up the track last out in an allowance race. She’s got no business racing here. Rodney Jenkin’s trains the 20-1 shot and Todd Dunkelburger is the pilot.

Blind Luck (Pollard’s Vision x Lucky One by Best of Luck) The 2010 Kentucky Oaks winner was second five times in a row before winning her last two starts. It looks like her best form is finally back. She comes from off the pace and doesn’t seem to be bothered by slow fractions. The $11k yearling purchase has won 11 of her 20 starts and her heart is enormous. New jockey Garrett Gomez seems to be in sync with her and she is doing better with him. Jerry Hollendorfer is the trainer.

I’m wary of Life At Ten here. She gets a big weight advantage on the top two choices. Todd Pletcher is no fool and he wouldn’t have her here if didn’t think she was on the verge of a big comeback win. Knowing that I’ll make her my top selection. I’m not willing to bet too much here though as it is a short field and she has a few question marks. Check out our horse betting page for information on where to bet the race!

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: blind luck, delaware handicap, delaware picks, havre de grace, horse betting, life at ten, love's blush, thundering emilia

2011 Vanity Handicap Preview

June 16, 2011 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

The best West Coast fillies and mares do battle in the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap this Saturday at Hollywood Park. Six will go a mile & one-eighth over the Cushion Track, with the winner adding a Grade 1 win to their resume. For the first time in four years there will be a new winner in this race, as the future hall-of-famer and back-to-back-to-back winner Zenyatta is off on the farm in Kentucky. This group doesn’t have a stand-out, but is a solid group. This race will help determine who the West Coast’s top female is.

#1 Miss Match won the Grade 1 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita two starts back, then ran a distant fourth in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park, well behind Switch. She has a solid 6-2-1-0 record (and one of only two with a win) at the distance . She has worked steadily the last few weeks, and will be trying to roll from the back of the pack. She has had only one race over any type of synthetic surface, a win over the Tapeta at Golden Gate. Her musical chair jockeys continue as Joe Talamo will be aboard for the first time.

#2 St Trinians finished first in the Milady H. last time out, but was disqualified for interference and DQ’d to fourth. The infraction cost Talamo the ride on her, and leading SoCal jockey Rafael Bejarano takes over. She has had three steady works since, but is only 2-0-1-0 at this distance. She figures to be sitting mid-pack and will make her move at the top of the lane. It has been 16 months since her last win, and one has to wonder if she is the best in SoCal, since she was defeated by both Miss Match and Switch in March.

# 3 American Story figures to be on the lead, even with the removal of blinkers from her. She has slowly climbed the class ladder, finishing 3^rd (moved up to 2^nd via DQ) in the Milady. This will be the furthest she has ever gone and one has to wonder if she will handle the distance, especially with her losing ground in each race at 1m 1/16ths. She has had two typical swift Baffert works since her last race. While it is hard to throw out a Baffert-trainee, especially one who has never been out of the exacta, she just may not be this good.

#4 Switch has had a steady diet of Grade one races, never being out of the exacta. But she has not won a route race since September, seven starts ago. She has a clear lead in the stretch two races back in the Santa Margarita, only to be collared by Miss Match in the final strides. She then finished second to national division lead Harve De Grace in the Apple Blossom. She figures to be just off of American Story during the race. She has run well off a similar freshening in the past, and her work pattern has been solid. The main knock against her is that this distance may be just further than she wants to go. At a short price, she looks like a play against.

#5 She’s Cheeky was interfered with in the Milady, and was moved up to third. While she has most of her success around one turn, she is bred to go two turns. She has settled for minor awards in the past more often than not, with eleven other placings to go with her three wins. She could end up on the lead with the lack of other pace in the race. She has two atypically fast works for her connections, and could be sitting on a big one. She could once again add value for the trifecta.

#6 Blind Luck returns to SoCal after winning the La Troienne on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. She has run her typical late-closing race ever single time this year, but only won once. She has worked solidly in the interim for her recently elected Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Blind Luck has never been out of the exacta at the distance. She is the high weight in the field, giving three lbs. to Switch all the way up to 9 lbs. to She’s Cheeky. With the lack of the pace in the race, she could struggle if she falls too far back.

The Vanity offers a compact but talented field of six females, all looking to notch a grade one race win. With the lack of pace, placing and horses who have shown an extended kick are likely to win. St. Trinians is the pick as she is in good form, will be get to the front before the favorite, Blind Luck, is able to do so.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: american story, blind luck, miss match, she's cheeky, st trinians, switch, vanity handicap

Gradedstakes.com Eclipse Awards Ballot

December 28, 2010 By Ryan Patterson 6 Comments

The above photo is of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. This years Eclipse Awards are every bit as exciting as last year when she took the top spot. I didn’t get a vote, but if I did here are the horses I would’ve selected. Let’s take a look!

Two-Year-Old Male: Uncle Mo wins this in an open and shut case. The son of Indian Charlie only raced three times, but won emphatically in each start. His Breeders Cup Juvenile victory is one of the most incredible I’ve ever seen. It will be exciting to see how he fares in 2011.

Two-Year-Old Female: Awesome Feather did everything asked of her in 6 starts this year. She capped it with a Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies win. Other interesting horses include Position Limit and Turbulent Descent. All three will be strong contenders in 2011, but the Breeders Cup winner gets the nod for the Eclipse Award.

Three-Year-Old Male: Lookin At Lucky has to take this on virtue of his wins in the Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational. The son of Smart Strike has one of the biggest hearts I’ve ever seen. The other horse here is Eskendereya. He only raced 3 times before retiring due to injury, but his win in the Wood Memorial was one of the most impressive performances I’ve ever seen by a sophomore runner.

Three-Year-Old Female: Blind Luck seems to know where the wire is. She won three races by a nose and another by a neck this year. Her best wins came in the Las Virgenes, Kentucky Oaks and Alabama Stakes. She was purchased for a measly $11k in 2008. Her rival, Havre de Grace, gets an honorable mention.

Older Horse: This division is another open and shut case in favor of Blame. He is the only horse to ever beat the legendary Zenyatta and he did so in the Breeders Cup Classic. I love his style of galloping horses down. He is a truly a throwback.

Older Female: Zenyatta gets this one for the third consecutive year. Relax ladies, she won’t be around to win it next year. You will get your chance.

Male Sprinter: This division is the first one with some room for debate. Even though I picked Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama to win that race, I do think others deserve consideration. My selection for this award is Majesticperfection. He won the head to head matchup with Big Drama and won twice as many races in total. He is one of the best sprinters I’ve seen in many years and its a damn shame he was injured and forced to retire. Smiling Tiger had a great year winning two Grade 1 races and missing a third by a nose.

Female Sprinter: This was a tough pick, but I went with Dubai Majesty over Franny Freud. The latter had her season ended by an injury after taking the Prioress. Dubai Majesty finished her year with a win in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. That put her over the top.

Male Turf Horse: It was a pretty sorry year for this division. I’ll give the nod to Champ Pegasus on virtue of his runner up performance in the Breeders Cup Turf. Rosario was bold to put him on the lead as this horse closed from 19 back to win a race earlier this year. His best win came in the Clement L. Hirsch. Most will probably go with Gio Ponti here and he deserves a look after running behind Goldikova in the Breeders Cup Mile.

Female Turf Horse: This is an easy pick. Although Goldikova only raced once in North America she deserves the award. The filly looked like she had a rocket in her rear end as she vaulted past them all in the Breeders Cup Mile. It was one of the best efforts all year and by FAR the best from this division. The ill fated Tuscan Evening gets an honorable mention for going a perfect 6 for 6.

Horse of the Year: Please refer to this post.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher wins this one in a rout. He took the Kentucky Derby and won much more money than any other trainer. He also took more Grade 1 races and more graded races overall. Bob Baffert, John Sadler, John Sheriffs and Steve Asmussen deserve mentions. Among the lower tier trainers Jamie Ness and Joe Woodard both had great years. Pletcher is the reigning king though.

Jockey: Although he didn’t win as many graded races as some, Ramon Dominguez is very deserving of this award. He rides circles around most of the New York colony and won more money than any other jockey this year. Dominguez is a great tactician and extremely underrated.

Apprentice: I don’t have a very strong opinion here, but I’ll go with top money earner and wins leader Omar Moreno. The young rider’s life is finally looking up after living through a civil war as a child. Click here to read more.

Owner: Jerry and Ann Moss deserve this one for keeping Zenyatta around. They did what was good for the game and we owe them a debt that can never be repaid. This award would be a good start though.

Stallion: I don’t have an opinion in this category, but Malibu Moon and Distorted Humor were 1-2 in wins earnings.

So there you have it, my picks for the 2010 Eclipse Awards. Official results will be released on January 17, 2011. Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts. I’d love to discuss the topic and hear what you think!

Filed Under: Miscellaneous Tagged With: awesome feather, big drama, blind luck, champ pegasus, eclipse awards, gio pontio, goldikova, havre de grace, horse of the year, jerry and ann moss, Lookin at Lucky, majesticperfection, omar moreno, position limit, ramon dominguez, Todd Pletcher, turbulent descent, uncle mo

2010 Breeders Cup Ladies Classic Preview

October 29, 2010 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

Click here for information on how to get our Breeders Cup picks and selections!

Defending champion Life Is Sweet is no longer on the scene, but the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic will still be a hell of a race. I still like to refer to the race as the Distaff, but for the sake of preventing confusion I will refrain from doing so. Let’s take a look at the top contenders.

Acoma- Spinster winner hasn’t shown the greatest form in 2010, but her latest race was as good as any she has ran. I love the fact that she is 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. One of her best races came here, when she won the Grade 3 Dogwood 2 years back. Fringe contender, but a contender nonetheless.

Acting Happy- Lightly raced three-year-old was third by two lengths in the Alabama Stakes last out. Expect her to prompt the pace, but I can’t give her too much of a chance on such a long layoff.

Blind Luck- The Kentucky Oaks winner has the biggest heart of any horse in this race, and perhaps the entire Breeders Cup. She usually finds a way to win, but was unable to do so last out in the Cotillion when Havre de Grace finally got the best of her in their third meeting. Despite losing, she ran a career best Beyer Speed Figure. The hard closing daughter of Pollard’s Vision figures to garner plenty of support, and deservedly so. She can run all day long. Leave her off any tickets at your own risk.

Evening Jewel- Her lone start on dirt was a near miss in the Kentucky Oaks. She enters the Breeders Cup on short rest after a third place finish in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. The quick turnaround doesn’t concern as she has performed well under these circumstances in the past. All in all, she appears to be a cut below the best.

Havre de Grace- Fox Hill Farms filly is on the rise. She won the Cotillion last out, and was second in the Alabama, and Delaware Oaks before that. I like the fact that we know she will love the distance. I also like that she is getting good at the right time. She has plenty of tactical speed. Jeremy Rose has got a big shot to win on this girl.

Life At Ten- As far as looks go, there isn’t a horse in this field who has her beat. Looks dont win races, but Life At Ten has won her fair share this year thanks to talent to compliment her looks. The Todd Pletcher trainee is 3 for 3 at the distance including her last out win the Beldame. I love her running style. Johnny Velazquez can have her on or near the lead. It’s clear she is the best of the older mares.

Malibu Prayer- She ran a career best at the distance two back in the Grade 1 Ruffian where she bested Unrivaled Belle. She will have the lead if she wants it. I wish the filly would have had another race before the Breeders Cup, but she will hold her own in spite of that.

Unrivaled Belle- Best known for besting Rachel Alexandra in the La Troinne. She is winless in three starts since, yielding to Life At Ten twice and Malibu Prayer once. She could benefit from Kent Desormeaux dropping a little further off the pace. She has a shot, but I don’t see her turning the tables on the two fillies that already topped her this year.

Who do YOU like in the Ladies Classic? Leave a comment and be heard!

Click here for information on how to get our Breeders Cup picks and selections!

Filed Under: Breeders Cup Tagged With: acoma, acting happy, blind luck, breeders cup ladies classic, evening jewel, havre de grace, life at ten, malibu prayer, unrivaled belle

Haynesfield upsets in Jockey Club Gold Cup to top exciting weekend!

October 3, 2010 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

Well, I knew he was lone speed, but I didn’t think Haynesfield was classy enough to take them all the way in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. How wrong I was! The son of Speightstown proved his pedigree wrong and got stronger as the race got longer to register his first Grade 1 victory. Blame, the 3-5 favorite, finished well back in second. Travers runner up Fly Down was third.

Trainer Steve Asmussen is considering the Breeders Cup Classic for Haynesfield. Unless he freaks in that race he has almost no chance at all to win. I’ve always liked the horse, but he is a cut below the best in the nation. His freakish performance was the result of a lack of pace and a short field. I’d like to see him in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. It is likely he would be in with a big shot to win that race.

I’m glad that Blame lost. He’s been my Breeders Cup Classic horse for a long time. All that his loss in the Jockey Club will do is ripen his price for the Classic. I’m every bit as confident in him as I was before he ran second. The son of Arch will be peaking in November and charging late with an enormous shot to win the $5 million race.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup wasn’t the only big race this weekend.

The Cotillion saw Havre de Grace finally get the better of Blind Luck, although narrowly. The rivalry between the three-year-old fillies is shaping up as the best in the nation. It is likely both will make their next start in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic. They will meet Life At Ten there. She won the Beldame on Saturday against a decent, but small field. The Ladies Classic looks to be one of the best betting races of the Breeders Cup.

Giralamo got the best of Riley Tucker to beat what was a very weak group in the Vosburgh. It’s always tough to say this far in advance, but I have a hard time seeing him run big in the Breeders Cup Sprint. I could be wrong, because just as the Vosburgh was a weak group, so could be the Sprint. Anything can happen. He’s a nice horse, but I just wonder why he didn’t beat Riley Tucker by more. I’ve never thought much of Riley Tucker.

In your mind, what was the highlight of the racing this weekend? Are you excited for the Breeders Cup? Leave a comment and discuss!

Filed Under: Horse Racing News Tagged With: blame, blind luck, breeders cup classic, breeders cup ladies classic, breeders cup sprint, cotillion, giralamo, havre de grace, haynesfield, jockey club gold cup, vosburgh

Small field gathers for Grade 2 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing

September 29, 2010 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

If you didn’t get the memo, Philadelphia Park is now known as Parx Racing. Their marquee event, the Pennsylvania Derby, was contested a week ago. Morning Line was an improbable winner for trainer Nick Zito. Now the girls will take center stage in the Grade 2 Cotillion Stakes. A compact field of five will compete for the $750,000 purse.

Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck is a solid 7/5 favorite shipping in from her southern California base. The daughter of Pollard’s Vision has traveled the nation to win five races at five different tracks. Her latest trip resulted in a neck victory over Havre de Grace in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes. I loved her chances there and I found it odd that the public bet Devil May Care off the board when Blind Luck looked as good or better on paper. This is a filly that can do anything. If she fires her best shot for jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer it will be nearly impossible to take her down.

As good as Blind Luck looks, her new rival Havre de Grace hasn’t been much worse. She’s lost by neck and a nose to the favorite in her last two races. What’s to say she can’t turn the tables? The daughter of the late Saint Liam is 9/5 on the morning line. Jockey Jeremy Rose may change tactics a little bit here. Rose won the Preakness in 2005 aboard Afleet Alex. He’s just as capable as any rider in the game despite the fact that he doesn’t get many big mounts anymore. Havre de Grace wouldn’t be a surprise if she was able to pull off the uspet.

Trainer Bob Baffert has cross entered Bonnie Blue Flag in the Cotillion and Beldame Stakes. Regardless of which race she tries, I like her chances stretching out. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche has been named to ride. Her chances of winning are probably better here, because she would likely have to hook Life At Ten on the lead in the Beldame. That wouldn’t be a good thing for either filly.

Awesome Maria looked good in her comeback race for trainer Todd Pletcher. The 2009 Grade 1 Frizette Stakes Stakes runner up improved her record to 3 wins from 5 starts by taking the $70k Risk Averse Stakes on the turf. This race will be her first attempting at routing. She is certainly bred for it as a daughter of Maria’s Mon.

Absinthe Minded rounds out the field. She set the pace in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks two races back before fading badly.

Taking down Blind Luck will be tall task for anyone in this field. Who do you like in the Cotillion Stakes?

Filed Under: Horse Racing News Tagged With: awesome maria, blind luck, bonnie blue flag, cotillion stakes, havre de grace

Free Weekend Selections

August 21, 2010 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

Alabama Stakes

Blind Luck (8-5) This filly just seems to know where the wire is. She has won three races by a nose and is clearly the one to beat here despite being second choice on the morning line. Look for her to come flying late under jockey Joel Rosario who will be piloting her for the second time.

Arlington Million

General Quarters (8-1) Trainer Tom McCarthy made clear early in the year that this race was the goal for his colt. He has done well on the turf. He won the Woodford Reserve earlier this year against some nice horses, and if he runs his best race he can down the favored Gio Ponti.

Del Mar Oaks

Crisp (6-1) What’s not to like about this filly? She is a Grade 1 winner this year and will have the services of red hot jockey Rafael Bejarano. The daughter of El Corredor will be going 9 furlongs for the first time in career. She has proved she can beat the favored Evening Jewel, and she ran a bang up race after clipping heels last out. I give her a huge shot and could see her going off at a price larger than 6-1.

Secretariat Stakes

Wigmore Hall (5-1) Like it or not, the Europeans have better turf horses than we do and this gelding will prove that. He beat 18 older horses two races ago despite a horrendous trip. The Michael Bell trainee has won at the distance twice from four starts. Paddy O’ Prado is an amazing animal, but I think this gelding will give him everything he wants and perhaps more. That’s not to say Paddy can’t or wont win, but I like my chances on this one at a good price.

Beverley D Stakes

Hot Cha Cha (6-1) Her price won’t be as ripe with the defection of Rainbow View, but she still warrants a big look. The Grade 1 winning filly ran strong last out to be third behind Tuscan Evening. She is clearly the best filly in the race and if she runs her race she will win. I love the bullet 1:00 B work entering this race. She needs a moderate to fast pace and as long as the pace setters don’t go slow I think she wins this event.

Lake Placid Stakes

It’s Tea Time (10-1) I’ve loved this filly ever since she ran second in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. It’s hard to imagine her being 10-1 despite the fact that won an allowance last out. She has all the talent in the world and if she can get a pace to chase she will be tough to hold off in the lane.

Who do you like? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below!

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: alabama stakes, arlington million, beverley d stakes, blind luck, crisp, del mar oaks, free picks, general quarters, hot cha cha, its team tiem, lake placid, secretariat stakes, wigmore hall

Hot Handicapping weekend topped by Caracortado ($11) in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes

February 15, 2010 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

Those who purchased my selections this weekend were rewarded when I correctly picked the winner in 5 of 7 races. I’m hoping to continue handicapping hotly this weekend and I am looking forward to all of the stakes action! Let’s examine the races where I was successful.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes: Caracortado ($11)- I had a REALLY good feeling about this gelding. He had never failed in four tries and had already proved he could go two turns whereas the favorite had not done so. Paul Atkinson gave him a great ride and he won fairly easily. Trainer Michael Machowsky is pointing him to the San Felipe Stakes where he could meet up with Lookin at Lucky in a matchup akin to David and Goliath.

San Vicente Stakes: Sidney’s Candy ($6.60)- I believed this colt would trounce all comers in this race and he did so. He lived up to the form he showed over the summer at Del Mar. He won this race quite easily and has to be the early favorite for the Santa Anita Derby. He looked scary good and I’m really looking forward to seeing more of him.

Santa Maria Handicap: St Trinians ($4.60)- I believed that Life Is Sweet freaked when she won the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic due to the fast pace set by Careless Jewel. While she ran second, I was right to believe she couldn’t handle my top selection St Trinians who improved her record in the US to a perfect four for four. Mike Mitchell wants her next start to come in the Santa Anita Handicap. I may support her there also depending on the field!

Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship: Munnings ($4)- It seems that all this son of Speighstown really needed was a fast track. Trainer Todd Pletcher wants to target a Grade 1 race for his next start. If the track is fast he will have a heck of a chance to win.

Las Virgenes Stakes: Blind Luck ($2.40)- Who didn’t have this filly? She is incredibly fast although she narrowly got up after a perfectly timed ride by Rafeal Bejarano. I advised bettors to sit this race out because she looked overwhelmingly good, but wasn’t worth a bet at such a short price. Like many of the other previously listed horses, I can’t wait to see more of her!

This weekends lineup includes:

Fountain of Youth Stakes

Risen Star Stakes

Hutcheson Stakes

El Camino Real Derby

Mineshaft Handicap

San Carlos Handicap

San Luis Obispo Handicap

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: blind luck, caracortado, handicapping recap, horse racing picks, munnings, sidney's candy, st trinians