Drill

Many thought of Drill (Lawyer Ron x Cat Dancer by Storm Cat) as a top Kentucky Derby contender after he took the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.

It’s been mostly downhill since then.

He returned from his Grade 1 win to finish second in the Grade 1 Norfolk, but was then 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, seventh in the Delta Jackpot and ninth in the CashCall Futurity. Trainer Bob Baffert is now dropping him in class and turning him back in distance in hopes of getting a win.

Drill has been very head strong in his last two races, vying for the lead in both before he faded. When he won the Del Mar Futurity he was able to relax and make a move from fifth. It would be wise to try and revert to those tactics and I fully expect to see Martin Garcia try to relax him. With lots of speed signed on, it would be the right move.

In my eyes, there is only one horse that might be able to compete with Drill. That is the rail horse, Midnight Transfer (Hard Spun x French Satin by French Deputy). He broke his maiden over this track going six furlongs last out in what was his fourth attempt at doing so. It looks like he’s getting good at the right time for trainer Carla Gaines. Joel Rosario should be able to sit a great trip so long as he breaks well. I’ll call for him to pull off the upset.

The $75,000 San Pedro Stakes is the fourth race from Santa Anita on Sunday. You can play it Twinspires.com where new members get a $100 sign up bonus.

**Be sure to check out our up to date Kentucky Derby Contenders list**

It’s way too early to hope to accurately pick the winner of the 2012 Kentucky Derby, but I’ve created a short list of candidates. Feel free to comment and share your thoughts.

#1 Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway x Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer): We didn’t see his best in the Del Mar Futurity last out as he was compromised by the drifting Majestic City. His two starts before that couldn’t have been any more impressive as he easily cruised past the competition to win a maiden race and the Grade 2 Best Pal. Mike Harrington has got a beast on his hands.

#2 Take Charge Indy (AP Indy x Take Charge Lady) Breeding really doesn’t get much better than this. I love the way he smashed a maiden group first out at Arlington. He verified that form with a second place finish in the Arlington Futurity next out. He should run all day and is in the excellent hands of Patrick Byrne.

#3 Drill (Lawyer Ron x Cat Dancer by Storm Cat) Bob Baffert is excited about him and that means we should be too. He finished up like a monster in the Del Mar Futurity to get the win last out. It seems like blinkers have really done the trick. Keep an eye on him as he is in the best possible hands and has the pedigree to run all day.

#4 Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West) I had him as my top pick when he won the Saratoga Special, but even I didn’t see that big run coming. He didn’t just win, he crushed the competition despite being green in the stretch. Michael Matz will probably bring him along slowly from this point forward.

#5 Smart Ellis (Smarty Jones x Corrazona by El Gran Senor) You wont find this one on many lists, but he’s got potential. The Richard Mandella trainee won going a flat mile over the Del Mar grass to break his maiden in the second start of his career. He’s got good early speed and I’m hoping he can carry it.

Honorable Mentions: Finale, State of Play and Optimizer

Chances are that none of these will even make the starting gate. I’ll consider it quite the accomplishment if any of them can hit the board, let alone win. Despite that it is fun to speculate. The Kentucky Derby is the most important race in the world and we never stop thinking about it.

**Be sure to check out our up to date Kentucky Derby Contenders list**

The Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity is a great race for two year olds going 7 furlongs on the synthetic main track at Del Mar. Recent winners include Breeders Cup Juvenile hero Midshipman and future Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky. Bob Baffert has dominated the contest with seven consecutive wins from 1996-2002 and with 9 wins overall.

Baffert brings Drill and Gun Boat to this years race. Both are speedy colts that project to be on or near the lead. Surprisingly, neither of them will go favored.

That role likely belongs to Creative Cause. The son of Giant’s Causeway is a perfect 2 for 2 with a maiden win and an easy score in the Best Pal. Both wins were highly impressive visually. He glides along easily and wins without much effort. It would take a huge effort or him just not showing up for someone to beat him.

Majestic City is a colt that I love and one of the best lookers I have ever seen. He’s undefeated from three starts with a win in the Hollywood Juvenile Championship. He proved last out he can rate which is important. Being a son of City Zip he isn’t likely to go too far, but this seven furlongs distance should be just fine for him. The hugely talented colt would probably be odds on to win this race if not for the presence of Creative Cause.

While I really, really, really like Majestic City, it’s hard for me to see anyone beating Creative Cause. It’s likely that he is the best two-year-old in training right now. This is a two horse race and an upset seems unlikely. Good horses for the exotics are Sheer Talent and Mighty Monsoon. The later was along late for third last out in the Best Pal and should benefit from the extra ground. Sheer Talent posted a sharp maiden score and is an unknown quantity.

Plan to do some horse betting in the Del Mar Futurity? Check Twin Spires where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!

The Haskell Invitational is one of two races leading up to the Travers Stakes later this month. The main difference between this race and it’s counterpart (Jim Dandy Stakes), is that this race is a Grade 1. Not only that, but it boasts a purse of $1 million. For these two reasons winning the Haskell is every bit as important as taking the Travers later on this summer. Eight out of the last ten Haskell winners have gone on to win the Eclipse Award for top three-year-old male. With the picture atop the division increasingly foggy this race takes on even more meaning.

 Shackleford (Forestry x Oatsee by Unbridled) should play the role of favorite. The speedy colt led the field of 20 turning for home in the Kentucky Derby before fading to fourth. His signature win came next out in the Preakness where he scored from just off the pace. The battle hardened racehorse faded in the Belmont Stakes last out as the distance proved too much for him. He has three works since then including two bullets and it appears all systems are go. I’m going to look another direction as I believe the colt is over hyped and when you get down to it just isn’t that good.

Kelly Breen brings Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice (Roman Ruler x Champagne Glow by Saratoga Six) and Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire (Jump Start x Cabo de Noche by Cape Town). Ruler On Ice benefited from an off track at Belmont and in my eyes he still has to prove he belongs. His stable mate on the other hand is a serious contender. He looked great winning the Pegasus Stakes last out, but he is a bit light in the speed figures department.

My pick for this race is Coil (Point Given x Eversmile by Theatrical). Trainer Bob Baffert is deadly when shipping and 41% winners when removing blinkers which he will do for his charge in the Haskell. I’m hoping this will help him relax and sit just behind what appears to be plenty of early speed in this race. Coil has limitless potential and is still lightly raced having made just five starts. He’s working tremendously and the Haskell could be his coming out party. Martin Garcia is the pilot.

Another interesting horse that I almost made my pick is Astrology (AP Indy x Quiet Eclipse by Quiet American). I love his running style and I believe we haven’t seen his best yet. Steve Asmussen trains and Julien Leparoux will ride.

Joe Vann (Silver Deputy x Polish Flower by Danzig) and J J’s Lucky Train (Silver Wagon x Delta Sensation by Thunder Gulch) could be pace factors. I really encourage throwing Joe Vann in considering he races for Todd Pletcher and will be a juicy price at 15-1.

We will be betting Coil at Twin Spires where new accounts get a $100 sign up bonus. Check them out!

The CCA Oaks is one of the premier races each year for three-year-old fillies. It is contested at nine furlongs on the main track at Saratoga. Notable recent winners include Devil May Care, Music Note and Ashado.

Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty (Medaglia d’Oro x Liszy by AP Indy) headlines this field. Since her gritty win at Churchill Downs she has raced just once and placed second in the Hollywood Oaks. She was defeated by a top filly there named Zazu, but I don’t know if Plum Pretty was ready to run her best race that day. Bob Baffert is crazy good whens shipping to Saratoga so we know the likely favorite has a big shot. Martin Garcia will make the trip to ride.

Royal Delta (Empire Maker x Delta Princess by AP Indy) figures to get plenty of action as well for trainer Bill Mott and jockey Jose Lezcano. A winner of three of her four career starts, she was last seen coming from off the pace to post a stylish victory in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico. The second place finisher there, Buster’s Ready (More Than Ready x Beatem Buster by Honour and glory), returned to take the Grade 1 Mother Goose. She is also entered here for Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez.

The entry of Kentucky Oaks favorite Joyful Victory (Tapit x Wild Lucky Black by Wild Again) is worth mentioning. She destroyed two races at Oaklawn earlier this year when she won the Honeybee and Fantasy. Since then she was a flat fourth in the Kentucky Oaks and well beaten second in the Mother Goose. She’s got a top trainer in Larry Jones. Maybe he has figured something out to turn her around and bring that Oaklawn form back.

It’s Tricky (Mineshaft x Catboat by Tale of the Cat) defeated top filly Turbulent Descent last out in the Acorn Stakes. That win was highly impressive and came under new jockey Eddie Castro. Trainer Kiaran McLaughing has wisely opted to keep him aboard. This filly is a winner of four of five lifetime starts. The lass will be a pace factor in this race.

While it is a short field of five horses, the CCA is one of those rare instances where every single horse in the race can win. That means if you have a solid opinion and can single on the Pick 4 it will pay off. We have just such an opinion and you can get in on our top pick as well as exotic tickets by checking out our Saratoga Picks page.

New players should consider betting the CCA Oaks at Twin Spires. They are owned by Churchill Downs and offer a $100 sign up bonus.

The Grade 3 Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes is one of the first graded events of the year for two-year-olds. Unlike many early baby races the winner of this race stands a fair chance of doing great things later on in his/her career. Last year’s winner, J P’s Gusto, went on to win the Del Mar Futurity and take second place honors in the CashCall Futurity. Other notable winners include Grade 1 winners Came Home, Hennessy,  Squirtle Squirt and Dixie Union.

Brigand (Flatter x Silence Please by Quiet American) Was nearly run down by a 35-1 shot in the debut where he held on for the nose victory under Martin Garcia as a prohibitive 4/5 favorite. He was purchased for $925k as a yearling which is surprising given his modest pedigree. Based solely on the debut I can’t back him. Bob Baffert trains and Joel Rosario gets the call to ride this time.

Ruler of Dubai (Tribal Rule x O K Topless by Old Topper) Posted a sharp win against maiden claimers last out taking the field gate to wire in :58 1/5 for five furlongs. He’s got an outside shot to hit the board for trainer George Papaprodromou and jockey Kerwin John, but a win would be very surprising.

Rino S (Tribal Rule x When And Where by Siyah Kalem) Broke his maiden in the second start going two furlongs in early April. Just can’t see him doing it here. This is a huge jump. Marcelo Polanco trains and Tyler Baze is the pilot.

Super Candy (Candy Ride x Zupa by Woodman) Was a distant second last out in a maiden claimer. That was his fifth try to break the maiden. Joe Talamo will ride for Marcelo Polanco.

Night Tide (Malibu Moon x Yo Ali by Quiet American) Looked spectacular in the maiden breaker for trainer Bob Baffert. The works since then have been very sharp and Garcia chose him over the rail horse. Have to think that of the two Baffert entries this is the better one. Love that he can sit behind horses. That makes him all the more dangerous.

He’s A Bandit (Bandini x Sigatoo by Black Minnaloushe) Finished 5 3/4 lengths back in fifth behind Night Tide in his debut. That was a solid effort for his first run, but if he is going to win his game has to step way up.

Pend Oreille (Swiss Yodeler x Belle Michelle by Gulch) Scored an easy wire to wire win against open maidens in the debut for trainer Mike Harrington. He had Bejarano on his back that day and the ace jockey has opted to stay aboard. He could be any kind. His daddy won this race in 1994.

Majestic City (City Zip x It’schemistrybaby x Meadowlake) His maiden win is arguably the best by any horse so far in 2011. He followed that effort up with a strong win in the Proctor Memorial. Look for him to flash early speed from the outside with jockey David Flores aboard. If he runs back to his last two races he could be very, very hard to catch. Peter Miller trains and has him perfectly spotted here.

I’m going to make Majestic City my top choice to win. He has been unbelievable thus far in his young career and the competition can’t compete with him on paper. My good friend Nick Hines picked this horse out at auction for $180k and it looks like he’s found a graded stakes winner.

Nick also found 2007 Hollywood Juvenile Championship winner Salute The Sarge. If you are interested in owning a great horse like Majestic City get in touch with me and I can in turn put you in touch with Nick. You will be in great hands with him.

After my top choice, I like Pend Oreille fairly well. I have to think Bejarano was offered the mount on Brigand and the fact that he chose this one says the horse must be doing well. Learn about online horse betting by checking out our Horse Betting page. The page offers excellent tips on how to play the ponies online.

The Swaps Stakes is named after a horse with some of the best natural speed ever, Kentucky Derby winner Swaps. It is contested at 9 furlongs over the Cushion Track surface at Hollywood Park for three-year-olds. Swaps was also a Hollywood Gold Cup winner, a race which will take place the same day as his namesake event.

This year a small, but strong field of six has gathered to compete for the $150,000 purse. Let’s give each runner a quick look and try to locate the winner.

Runflatout (Flatter x Slammin’ Lil by Grand Slam) I bet this one last out when he finished second in the Affirmed Handicap. The John Sadler trainee was making his second start around two turns and finished second. The winner of that race, Coil, is also here. This time Runflatout will get 6 pounds on his rival and that could be the difference maker. Garrett Gomez replaces Victor Espinoza in the irons.

Spud Spivens (Tizbud x Ocean Reality by Cutlass Reality) Cal bred finished up well to be third beaten 5 lengths in the Affirmed last out. Before that he won two in a row taking a maiden race and a non-winners 1x event. The gelding was purchased $8k as a two-year-old and has eked out a nice living so far for trainer Henry Moreno. I can see him getting a check here, but winning would be a shock. He just doesn’t appear to be as good as the top two in here.

Coil (Point Given x Eversmile by Theatrical) The Bob Baffert trainee could be the best three-year-old in the country. Yes, I said the country. Last out he produced an easy score in the Affirmed Handicap in his first try at a route race. He gets a ton of stamina from his mare which means the extra half furlong will not create any problems. There is a lack of speed in this race, so look for him to be close. He’s will be a short price, but Coil has got this field over a barrel. Martin Garcia retains the mount.

Uncle Sam (Tapit x On The Town by Pleasant Colony) This one is also trained by Bob Baffert. Last out he didn’t fire as the favorite in the Lone Star Derby. It looks like he might be in this race to set the pace for Coil and try to hang on for a piece himself. Rafael Bejarano gets back aboard after riding him in his maiden win and to a fourth place finish in the Sham.

Dreamy Kid (Lemon Drop Kid x Dreams by Silver Hawk) Off the pace runner will add blinkers for trainer Neil Drysdale. He has plenty of stamina in the pedigree and could be a sneaky horse for the exacta spot. His last work was a bullet four furlongs in :47 H. Joe Talamo gets up for the first time.

Boxeur Des Rues (Smart Strike x Marseille Express by Caerleon) Doug O’Neill opts to try the Cushion Track with those colt that won over the turf last out. He broke his maiden first out across the pond at Kempton over a synthetic surface so he will probably like the track. This race will be third off the shelf which usually calls for a peak effort. If Joel Rosario can keep him from falling too far off the pace he might be tough to hold off for the second slot.

Bob Baffert’s Coil is holding aces here and will have to mess up big time to lose this one. If he slips up I’ll look for Boxeur Des Rues to pick up the pieces, but I honestly don’t see that happening. Pick 6 players should use this race as a single. Coil will run huge in the Swaps Stakes.

Single Coil on your tickets at Twin Spires or TVG. Both are great wagering platforms and good bonuses are available for all new players.

The Grade 3 Jersey Shore Stakes is a six furlong sprint for three-year-olds at Monmouth Park on July 3. A very strong field of seven colts and geldings will compete for the $90,000 winners share of the $150,000 purse.

Typically a field with only seven horses won’t provide much betting value, but when you get a race like this where any of them can win it is certainly a race worth playing. Let’s take a look at the field.

Zero Rate Policy (Trippi x Unititled Song by Unbridled’s Song) Speedster took the Rumson last out by an easy 4 3/4 lengths for trainer Terri Pompay. He is a perfect two for two at Monmouth and should be gunning for the lead from the rail. Carlos Marquez has got a big shot on this gelding. So far he has done everything asked of him, but this will be the acid test. He won’t lack backers at 3-1.

Parent’s Honor (Elusive Quality x Dami by Dynaformer) Seems to have found his calling in the sprint division after an easy seven length romp in an optional claimer at Delaware last out. It’s hard to go against trainer Anthony Dutrow who is a perfect four for four at Monmouth this meet. Jockey Jeremy Rose knows his way around a horse too. This is a horse I might consider in another race, but at 4-1 in this highly competitive event I will take a pass.

C J Russell (El Corredor x Miss Gibson County by Winrightt) His debut was smashing when he won going this distance at Churchill Downs. He looked even better second time out when cruising for a 1 1/4 length win over the highly regarded Cornpiper. I really like his chances to be a multiple graded winner, but I’m not sure it will start here. The pace will be contentious and I have a feeling he gets burned up under jockey Alan Garcia.

Royal Currier (Red Bullet x Top Of The League by Lite The Fuse) Gelding won his turf debut last out and before that was a close second to Little Drama at Parx. He likes the surface here at Monmouth, but the Patracia Farro trainee looks to be in deep at 8-1. Angel Serpa gets the call to ride.

Flashpoint (Pomeroy x Two Punch Lil by Two Punch) His grand sire passed away last week and perhaps the scary fast colt got his gray color from him. He was last seen backing up badly in the Preakness. That shouldnt bother anyone though as it was clearly out of his range. He looked like a freak in both of his sprint races and if that form comes back he will be tough to topple at 5-2 for trainer Wesley Ward and jockey Cornelio Velasquez.

Cal Nation (Distorted Humor x She’s A Winner by A.P. Indy) Ran to his low odds last out when taking an allowance race by 5 1/2 lengths going this distance at Belmont. Before that he failed as the favorite in the Jerome where he ended up a well beaten eighth. He gets 6 pounds on the favorite. His debut win by seven lengths was epic. It’s hard to ignore a Todd Pletcher horse at 5-1, especially considering how good this colt could be. Chris Decarlo gets the ride.

Chipshot (Peace Rules x Chispiski by Appealing Skier) Ran huge to be second to Vengeful Wildcat last out in the Chick Lang. On his best day he can compete here, but winning will be tough. Steve Asmussen trains and Elvis Trujillo will be in the irons.

My top pick to win the Jersey Shore is Cal Nation. He is a horse with a lot of potential that I can envision whipping this field or even running fourth. With so much quality stacked in this race nothing will shock me. With this colt I get a good price at 5-1 and I’m backing ace trainer Todd Pletcher in a stakes race. That’s never a bad move.

Playing $20 to win on him over at TVG will earn the chance for a VIP track experience at a place like Del Mar, Monmouth or Woodbine. The best part? All expenses are handled by TVG. This is on top of a generous sign up bonus. What are you waiting for? Check them out by clicking the picture above or link in this post and bet Cal Nation in the Jersey Shore!

Midnight Interlude (War Chant x Midnight Kiss by Groom Dancer)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Victor Espinoza

*Click the link to find out how to get our Kentucky Derby Picks**

Bob Baffert trained Kentucky Derby winners Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem. The last one, War Emblem, came in 2002 after a win in the Illinois Derby put him on the map as a rank outsider, but a contender nonetheless. This year he will have a lone charge for the most prestigious race in America. His name is Midnight Interlude.

Midnight Interlude was largely unknown until a stylish maiden win at Santa Anita on March 20. He covered the 1 mile distance in 1:36 1/5 over a wet fast track while drawing clear  by a whopping 8.5 lengths. He could have won by 12 had jockey Joel Rosario wanted to do so.

His next start came in the Santa Anita Derby. Somehow he was sent off at odds of 13-1 which really defies logic. The Santa Anita Derby was a relatively weak field of three-year-olds and Midnight Interlude was and still is a rising star in the Bob Baffert stable. He raced wide most of the way under new jockey Victor Espinoza before seizing victory in the final stages of the race from the front running Comma To The Top. Baffert’s colt needed every bit of the 9 furlongs distance to get the job done.

There are pros and cons from Midnight Interlude’s Santa Anita Derby triumph. Let’s start with the good. First, he was able to win despite having only three starts prior to the race and having made his racing debut a little over three months ago. He won in spite of that fact that he raced wide wide much of the way. The colt proved he could take off the pace and still run huge.

Now for the bad. Midnight Interlude didn’t beat much in that race. While a nice horse, Comma To The Top is second tier at best when we are talking about three-year-old routers. He didn’t exactly blow past him either even though it was clear Comma To The Top was a tired horse in the late stages of the race. He was the only horse finishing up with any punch at all.

There hasn’t been a winner of the Kentucky Derby that didn’t race as a two-year-old since Apollo did it in 1882 while the race was still in its infancy. That could change though as this is a weak field and Midnight Interlude is on the rise. He could be the “now” horse. Baffert says he can run all day and doesn’t really get tired. His pedigree points that direction too.

Jockey Victor Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby aboard the aforementioned War Emblem. He is a good and capable rider. Look for him to have Midnight Interlude racing just off the pace in the 5th or 6th position.

In the end there probably wont be much value in a win bet on Midnight Interlude. He will catch plenty of action simply because he is in the Baffert barn. He does have merits though. He is on the way up and is more likely to get the distance than not. He might be considered for the bottom of superfectas, but at this point asking him to win the Kentucky Derby is probably too much.

The impossible happened and Uncle Mo sustained his first defeat when he couldn’t accelerate clear when asked by John Velazquez in the Wood Memorial where he faded to finish third behind upset winner Toby’s Corner. The Indian Charlie colt grabbed a quarter at the beginning of the race, but trainer Todd Pletcher said that wasn’t an acceptable excuse for the juvenile champion’s first loss.

For those unfamiliar with the term, grabbing a quarter is an injury that occurs when a rear hoof collides with a front hoof. It is sort of like the horse clipping heels, but only he clips them with himself. Mo’s hoof injury looks a bit gnarly, but Pletcher says it isn’t very serious. You can find a picture of Uncle Mo’s hoof taken by Barbara Livingston as well as an article about the race by clicking here.

It is my opinion that Uncle Mo lost because he did not have a foundation leading up to the Wood Memorial that would have him fit enough to go 9 furlongs. He would beat that field 99 times out of 100, but his trainer did not have him ready to roll. The blame falls squarely on the shoulders of Todd Pletcher. I still believe Uncle Mo is a horse to be reckoned with despite his loss. There will be only 2 or perhaps 3 horses with a shot of beating him if he regains his form in the Kentucky Derby. To do that Pletcher will have to work his magic. Keeping up with workout reports will be of paramount importance. I’m taking a wait and see approach from now until then.

Toby’s Corner stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a powerful surge up the rail under jockey Eddie Castro for trainer Graham Motion. The son of Bellamy Road is now a winner of 4 races from 6 starts. I was a big time believer after his win in the Whirlaway Stakes, but after he flopped in the Gotham I scoffed at his chances. Well, it appears he is for real. His closing style will be a big advantage in his next start as the Run for the Roses looks loaded with speed. This is a competitor you can’t ignore, which is why I moved him to #8 on my Kentucky Derby Contenders ranking list.

The Santa Anita Derby saw recent maiden breaker Midnight Interlude get past a stubborn Comma To The Top. I loved when Trevor Denman said “All hands on deck for Comma To The Top” as he tried unsuccessful to hold his opponent at bay down the stretch. Denman turned a decisively uninteresting race into something worth watching. Unfortunately that is about as good as it gets for this race. I would be absolutely shocked if a horse out of this race won the Kentucky Derby. While he is a great colt, Midnight Interlude is too inexperienced to perform well going 10 furlongs next month. Comma To The Top is as gutty of a horse as you will find, but a son of Bwana Charlie going 10 furlongs is laughable.

Trainer Bob Baffert is smart enough to know that his colt will be practically a 100-1 shot (not on the tote board, but in reality) when he goes to the big race next month. That doesn’t mean he isn’t good though. Plain and simply he is just too unseasoned. I could see him having an impact in a big race down the road like the Haskell Invitational or the Travers Stakes, but doing well in the Kentucky Derby is asking too much.

What did you think of the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby? Leave a comment and we can discuss the races.