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Gradedstakes.com Features

November 4, 2011 By 1 Comment

Breeders Cup Friday is finally here and we’ve done an excellent job covering the races. This is the first time many of you have visited Graded Stakes and I’d like to take a few moments to break down some of the key parts of our website. I hope you enjoy your visit.

About: This page is pretty self explanatory. Graded Stakes has been in existence for nearly five years. I focus primarily on handicapping graded stakes races. This is a great page to learn more about me and my other interests.

Beginner’s Guide: Need to learn how to bet the horses? Look no further than our guide.

Free Horse Racing Picks: The only times of the year that I charge for my picks is during the Triple Crown, Breeders Cups, Saratoga and Del Mar meets. I’m considering doing Saratoga and Del Mar for free next year. Many great picks can be found on this page and I’ve recently began tracking my progress. If you plan to bet stakes races this is a great page to bookmark.

Horse Betting: If you need to find a place for online horse betting this is should be your first stop. We recommend BetAmerica, TVGor Twinspires.com. Check out the page to learn more.

Horse Racing Games: I’m a fan of video games and virtual SIMs. Two of the best and most exciting games out there are HorseRacingPark and Digiturf. You can race for real money in races like the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic. I highly recommend giving them a shot.

Horse Rankings: I use this page to rank 5 different divisions. It’s worth noting that it’s currently out of date. I plan to expand it in 2012.

Kentucky Derby Contenders: After the Breeders Cup, talk will almost immediately turn to the Kentucky Derby. We use this page to track the various contenders in Top 10 style.

Last but not least, you can find our Breeders Cup Picks by clicking the link.

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Gio Ponti bound for the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile

October 11, 2011 By 1 Comment

It took some time, but the hard knocking six year old Gio Ponti finally found the winners circle this past weekend in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. There was a point in the race where I wasn’t sure he would get up, but he accelerated tremendously in the final furlong. Now the 7 time Grade 1 winning son of Tale of the Cat will prep for a rematch with Goldikova in the Breeders Cup Mile.

I tried my best to not get down on Gio Ponti this year. He lost his first three North American races in 2011, but had excuses in all of them.

In the first, the Manhattan, he chased a dawdling pace and was forced to race on a yielding course which he clearly does not appreciate.

After that he twice ran into a monster named Cape Blanco in the Man O’ War and Arlington Million. Just like the Manhattan, those races were over a wet track. The champ still performed well despite facing conditions that werent to his liking, but it took a firm course at Keeneland for him to show his best stuff.

Facing three time Breeders Cup Mile winner Goldikova one more time will not be an easy challenge for Gio Ponti. Nothing has been easy for him so far though, so why would it get easy now?

Christophe Clement would love to send his star off to the shed by taking what would be the biggest victory of his career in the Breeders Cup Mile. He just might do it too.

Be sure to check out our Horse Racing Games page to learn how you can race for real money in the virtual edition of the Breeders Cup Mile. It’s got a purse of $2,000 and you can start playing for free!

 

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Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland will have Breeders Cup implications

October 10, 2011 By 1 Comment

The Breeders Cup is right around the corner, but the preps haven’t yet finished. One of the final  races in prepartion for the biggest two days of racing is the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes for two-year-old fillies going 8 ½ furlongs on the grass at Keeneland on Thursday. The winner and perhaps even a few others from this race will compete in the Grade 2 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Last year’s winner, Kathmanblu, has gone on to win 3 races including the Grade 2 Golden Rod and Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra Stakes. She was also runner up to Hungry Island in the Grade 2 Lake Placid at Keeneland. Her connections tell me she is headed to the Grade 2 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on Saturday for her next start.

That’s enough about last year though. Let’s try to find this year’s winner before she does it so we can cash a ticket.

Charming Vixen races for Tom Amoss and will break from the rail. She was last seen taking the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies at Turfway Park as our top choice. Calvin Borel put a masterful ride on her in that race as she ran off to a 3 ½ length wire to wire score at odds of just over 3-1.

Look for Borel to take her back just a bit as it looks like she hasn’t got as much early zip as stakes winners Slip Along Band who triumped by just over two lengths in an overnight stakes race at Monmouth Park and Soonerette who won the Happy Ticket at Louisiana Downs. I’m not a fan of the latter two fillies as I don’t really like their running style on this turf course and they just don’t look quite good enough to get the job done.

Tom Proctor’s Emerald Gold was last seen finishing third behind the razor sharp Wemissfrankie in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. She is shipping to Keeneland for her first turf start and her pedigree (War Front x Dina Gold by Seeking The Gold) tells me she should love the weeds. Her am drills are very sharp and she finished on even terms with stakes winning four-year-old Snow Top Mountain while drilling five furlongs in :59 4/5 B over the Keeneland main track. She’s very live and one I wouldn’t leave off multi race exotic tickets.

In the end, it came down to two fillies for me. Those lasses are Somali Lemonade and Sweet Cat. The former was my top pick at 10-1 when she broke her maiden very impressively in the debut at Belmont. Michael Matz shows great confidence in bringing her to this race and if she shows the same turn of foot she will be very deadly.

Sweet Cat is owned and trained by Todd Pletcher. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy broke her maiden over the Saratoga turf course in a very fast time for 5 ½ furlongs. Progeny of Kitten’s Joy have been winning everything in sight at Keeneland and throw in the fact that Pletcher is involved and she is just plain very fast and the filly looks deadly in this spot. Despite that, I’ve got to give my nod to Somali Lemonade. For my Pick 4 ticket I’ll include Emerald Gold, Sweet Cat and Somali Lemonade.

I can’t wait to watch one, two or all three of these fillies compete at Churchill Downs in the Breeders Cup. Be sure to check out our Twitter and Facebook pages for the latest horse racing picks, news and tips!

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2011 Breeders Cup Future Odds & Picks

September 6, 2011 By 2 Comments

 

Wynn|Encore has posted a future book of odds for the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup. I always like to take a look at stuff like this. Let’s break down each race with a look at key contenders and some of the plays I would make if  given the chance.

Breeders Cup Classic

This is going to be quite an interesting race in 2011. The older horse division is quite lacking and the three year olds have been largely inconsistent. This leaves room for two types of horses we normally wouldn’t consider all too much. That is a filly or invader from overseas.

The latter may come in the form of 6-1 morning line favorite So You Think. The New Zealand bred is a winner of 12 races from 17 starts and he most recently took the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes. Before that he beat 2010 Arc winner Workforce in the Eclipse Stakes. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never been shy about sending horses to America and with a $5 million purse on the line it isn’t hard to imagine this one making the trip.

My first choice for a wager would be Uncle Mo at a fat price of 40-1. He couldn’t have been any more impressive in the King’s Bishop where he raced off a very long layoff and proved he could rate while being nipped a nose at one of the hardest distances around. The colt has more pure talent than any horse in training and if he can put it all together it’s hard for me to see him losing. The 10 furlongs distance is a question, but at the huge price of 40-1 he is well worth the risk. He should race again in the Pennsylvania Derby and then target the Classic, but nothing is set in stone.

After Uncle Mo I would have to snatch up his stable mate Stay Thirsty at 12-1. The late blooming son of Bernardini has proven himself with three strong runs in the Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes. If he can run as well under the twin spires as he does in New York then he will likely be among the first 3 choices on race day.

It would be hard for me to talk anyone off the filly Havre de Grace at 9-1. She won the Woodward easily and if a big time European horse doesn’t show up she could among the top 2 or 3 choices on race day.

Breeders Cup Ladies Classic

I’m not too wild about this race from a future betting perspective. The top two in the division are Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. The casino knows that and both are 2-1. Hardly any value taking a 2-1 shot two months before the race. Two fillies I think stand a chance of upsetting are the three year olds It’s Tricky and Zazu. The former is a good price at 14-1 with the latter sitting at 20-1. It’s Tricky posted strong efforts in the Mother Goose as well as the CCA Oaks. If she rebounds with a win in the Cotillion she will be a much lower price on Breeders Cup Friday. Zazu was most recently second in her first try against older horses in the Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar.

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

This is another race where we could see Uncle Mo. If he ends up here I think he rolls so I have to go with him at 25-1. I believe he ends up in the Classic, but I’d hate to see him here and not have a few bucks to win. After Mo I like the rapidly improving Justin Phillip. The Zayat owned colt won the Woody Stephens Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard and was most recently third behind Caleb’s Posse and Uncle Mo in the King’s Bishop. If he keeps improving he will have a big shot at an enormous price of 30-1. He is currently targeting the Vosburgh and may be Breeders Cup Sprint bound, but at such a huge price it’s worth taking a chance.

TwinSpires.com

Breeders Cup Sprint

The Sprint has always been a race where something crazy can happen. Last year we saw Big Drama take the field gate to wire at 6-1 and he is favored to do so again at the same price in the future book. On his best day it’s hard to see anyone competing with him, but the horse has had just 2 races since last year. If he makes it to the gate and he is the same horse that won last year he will be strong.

As far as horse betting goes, I’ve got to look in another direction. Last year’s third place finisher, Smiling Tiger, is being offered at 14-1. The son of Hold That Tiger has won 3 graded races this year and has proven he likes the track/distance at Churchill Downs. When he’s on his game he can run with anyone.

Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf

It’s tough for me to get excited about this race. I’ve never been much of a fan of turf fillies. The favorite is the razor sharp Midday at 3-1. The mare won the Group 1 Nassau two back and was second to Twice Over in the Juddmonte International last out. She won this race in 2009 and was second last year.

Summer Soiree is an interesting option at 35-1. She was last seen winning the Del Mar Oaks. She is a lightning quick filly, but could have a tough time at the distance.

Daveron, winner of the Ballston Spa last out, should be considered at 30-1. She is only now coming into her own and could be peaking for Team Valor in the Breeders Cup.

Breeders Cup Turf

The co-favorites to win this race are Aidan O’Brien’s Cape Blanco and So You Think at 5-1. We have already spoke about the latter in the Classic division. Cape Blanco has crushed the competition in his time in America with wins in the Man O’ War and Arlington Million. He should be a force if he makes it to the race, but taking him at 5-1 isn’t advisable.

Irish Derby and Secretariat Stakes winner Treasure Beach is definitely tempting at 20-1, but I worry that O’Brien would keep him home if Cape Blanco is doing well.

Breeders Cup Mile

Goldikova seems to have this race on lock down and she will try for a record fourth win in 2011. The mare is as good as they come and hasn’t slowed down. Her odds stand at 5/2 in the future book. The only horse I could really see beating her is Courageous Cat and his odds are too low at 5-1.

What do you think of the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup? Plan to make some bets? Check out our Horse Betting page to learn more.

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2010 Breeders Cup Turf Preview

November 2, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Workforce is favored to win the Breeders Cup Turf

Click here for information on how to get our Breeders Cup picks and selections!

The Breeders Cup Turf is a race this is frequently dominated by European runners. Last year we saw Conduit win the race for the second time in a row. The race has been won by a horse from overseas in 4 of the past 5 years. That trend will probably continue as a weak contingent of American horses head to Churchill Downs to face a fierce group of European foes. Let’s look at the contenders.

Al Khali- I’ve liked this horse for some time, but never imagined he would progress to the point of being a contender in the Breeders Cup Turf. His only graded win this year came in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, but he ran huge in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Invitational, and in the Grade 1 Pattison International. His last effort, the Pattison, resulted in a fourth place finish. He was beaten just 3/4 of a length despite an absolutely terrible trip. It is likely he was 3 or 4 lengths the best horse, but jockey Alan Garcia cost him the win. Julien Laparoux will ride him on Saturday. He’s the best of the American chances.

Behkabad- The Group 1 winning three-year-old was fourth in the Arc de Triomphe last out. From 9 career starts he has won 6 times. He is a Group 1 winner at the distance, winning 2 of 3 tries at 12 furlongs. His lone loss was in the Arc. Owner Aga Khan will seek to become the leading  owner in the race at 4 wins if he can take the cake here.  I love improving three-year-olds, and it looks clear that we haven’t seen his best stuff yet. That is scary considering his impressive resume. Leave off tickets at your own risk.

Champ Pegasus- The Mandella trainee took the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch last out, but was second in a Grade 3 at the distance earlier this year. Would be a complete shock in my eyes.

Dangerous Midge- This is the weakest of the European runners. I’d put him below the top American horses. He is a winner of 5 races from 10 starts and he took the Arc Trial last out. He would have to move forward big time to take the Breeders Cup Turf.

Debussy- Owned by Sheikh Mohammad’s wife, this colt jumped up and won the Arlington Million at odds of 11-1 earlier this year. Since then he finished third in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. We know he will like the going at Churchill Downs, and he is certainly classy enough. The distance could be trouble as he is winless in three tries. He looked like a rocket ship firing to the winners circle in the Arlington Million, so if he can improve on that effort he will be very hard to hold off in the stretch.

Plumania- Stellar filly ran poorly in the Arc last out. Jockey Oliver Peslier is among the best from Europe, and she has competed well with turf star Midday. The daughter of Anaaba has fared well at the distance, but her Racing Post Ratings make her a fringe contender.

Red Desire- Disappointed last out against inferior company while finishing third. She was also third in the Japan Cup in 2009. If she can reproduce that effort I like her chances. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that she will run well here despite not firing last out. To put it simply, the Japanese connections are here for a reason. She is likely to go in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Winchester- Four-year-old trained by master of the turf Christophe Clement has really improved this year. He is a 2x Grade 1 winner in 2010 with victories in the Turf Classic Invitational, and Manhattan Handicap. I was impressed to see him run past Paddy O’ Prado last out. If the son of Theatrical can improve a little bit he could be deadly at a big price.

Workforce- Everyone knows that Arc de Triomphe winners have done poorly in this race. Many of them that didn’t run well were arguably better than this lightly raced colt. He has ran just 5 times, but already has a big name thanks to taking the biggest race in Europe over Japanese runner Nakayama Festa. The connections are threatening to scratch because the track is very dry and they want him to run on a softer going. I hope he runs because he will attract a ton of money and I don’t think he will win this. His European classmates are more impressive to my eyes.


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J.B.’s Thunder rolls to big win in the Dixiana Futurity as our top selection!

October 10, 2010 By 1 Comment

Just as I predicted several days before, J.B.’s Thunder rolled to a scintillating victory in the Grade 1 Dixiana Futurity. The son of Thunder Gulch went wire to wire and won by four as the rest of the field never mounted a serious bid to topple him. Jockey Shaun Bridgmahon gave him a perfect ride on the front end by slowing things down and getting at him just a little bit towards the wire.  He returned $13.60 for a $2 win bet.

It’s possible we witnessed something special at Keeneland. I know its extremely early to be talking about this sort of thing, but J.B.’s Thunder could be a legit Kentucky Derby contender. I love his style and confidence. He’s in the perfect hands with Stall, and the colt can clearly get the distance.

The way he runs and the poise he shows reminds me of 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones. He has a long, long way to go before he can be compared to that horse, but their styles are very similar.

Trainer Al Stall says it’s 50/50 that the colt will run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  They will likely target the Delta Jackpot instead.

I cashed a $2 Pick 4 with J.B’s Thunder singled. Unfortunately, I couldnt get any prices in the other three races. I also had the Pick 3 and Win/Place money on J.B.’s Thunder. All in all, it was a pretty good day thanks to the Al Stall trainee. I wish I had boxed the exacta, because a good friend told me he loved the runner up, but I couldn’t bring myself to like him.

I’m geared up and ready for the Breeders Cup. Be sure to check back for my picks in those races!

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Blame goes from hunter to hunted in Jockey Club Gold Cup

September 30, 2010 By Leave a Comment

While the race isn’t as strong as it has been in recent memory, the Jockey Club Gold Cup will be fun to watch. It is a race with serious Breeders Cup Classic implications.

The favorite is Foster Handicap, and Whitney Handicap winner Blame. The Al Stall trainee is riding a five race win streak. His most recent win came in the Whitney Handicap where he blasted past the heavily favored Quality Road who had set a dawdling pace. Regular visitors of this website know that I was on his bandwagon a very long time ago. I said in June that he would likely be my Breeders Cup Classic horse.

Despite his great form, Blame could have some trouble here. It will be his first time going 10 furlongs, and this race appears to be severely lacking in the pace department. Can he gun down lone speed going a little further? It certainly wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m not willing to just concede the race to him for those two reason.

West coast shipper and Jay Em Ess owned Rail Trip will get plenty of support at the windows. He took the Hollywood Gold Cup in 2009. That race is contested at today’s distance of 10 furlongs. This race will be the first start for the son of Jump Start in the barn of Richard Dutrow. His works are impressive, and he is handling the track well.

One of the biggest things going against him, for me, is Cornelio Velasquez. He’s off to a fast start at the Belmont meet, but he’s been pretty dreadful over the past year or two. Hopefully he can return to his winning ways of the past. Dutrow really moves horses up. He’s got Rail Trip training beautifully. This gelding has the perfect running style to win this thing.  If something happens to Haynesfield, he could probably wing it on the front end and take them all the way. Rail Trip wouldn’t shock.

I’m a big fan of Pick 4′s. They provide good value and, the payoffs are excellent. The key to cashing a nice Pick 4 is finding value. I think the value horse in this race is definitely Fly Down. The three-year-old proved he can go the distance. The son of Mineshaft finished 2nd by a dirty nose in the Travers last out. He would’ve certainly won with a cleaner trip. Pace could be a problem for this one as well, but he’s closed into slow paces in the past. I’m not wild about jockey Jose Lezcano lately, but I would be afraid not to have this guy on my ticket.

The only speed horse in the race is Haynesfield. He failed to make the lead after breaking through the gate last out in the Whitney, but you can expect to see him on the front end this time. 10 furlongs is probably out of this colt’s range. Look for him to back up big time in the stretch. He’s still a nice colt going 8 or 9 furlongs and I expect the connections to turn him back in his next race

Hold Me Back, Mythical Power, Dry Martini, and Tranquil Manner round out the field. This is a three horse race in my mind. Fly Down, Blame, and Rail Trip are those horses. Blame is clearly the best horse, but the best horse doesn’t always win. I’m going to make Rail Trip my top selections. He hasn’t raced in several months, but that doesn’t bother me. He’s going to get first run at Haynesfield, and hopefully he can kick clear. I’ll use all three on my Pick 4 ticket, and play a secondary ticket with him singled. Who do you like? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

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Zenyatta tries to make it 19 for 19 in the Lady’s Secret

September 27, 2010 By 5 Comments

It seems like just yesterday my jaw was on the floor after Zenyatta rallied in the middle of the track to become the first female winner of the Breeders Cup Classic. How she was able to down such accomplished foes was beyond me. After that win I finally came to a realization about the mare. She just does it. Plain and simple. Zenyatta just wins. She’s like Nike.

The daughter of Street  Cry will be seeking her 19th consecutive victory in the Lady’s Secret, which will be the penultimate race of her career. Granted things go as planned, she will then defend her title against even tougher competition than last year in the Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill Downs.

Is she ready? Jockey Mike Smith has no reason to believe she isn’t. He guided her across the track in an easy six furlong move of 1:13.80 on Saturday. He hardly urged her the entire way and her work was the 15th best of 23 workouts.

As of Monday I wasn’t able to obtain any information about who she will be competing against in the Lady’s Secret. It’s likely to be a short field of horses that are far inferior though. The big mare will get the job done, tough competition or not. I can’t wait to see her strut her stuff at Churchill Downs in the Breeders Cup. That’s not to say I’ll necessarily back her as my top pick, but I’ll certainly be cheering her on.

Make sure to be watching on Saturday as Zenyatta competes for her 19th win in the Lady’s Secret Stakes!

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Breeders Cup Marathon Preview

October 29, 2009 By 1 Comment


The Breeders Cup Marathon is a unique race. It was contested for the first time last year. It allows horses whom are strong at “ultra route” distances to have a chance at the spotlight. Muhannak won the race at 12-1 last year, and will be back for another try in 2009. The Marathon will be ran on Friday which is “Ladies Day” instead of Saturday as it was last year. The distance of the race has increased from 1 1/2 miles to 1 3/4 miles.  Let’s take a quick look at some of the potential entries!

There isn’t a horse that really jumps off the page when handicapping the Marathon. It looks like the pacesetter is going to be Hawthorne Gold Cup runner up Night Lite. The five-year-old son of Thunder Gulch earned an automatic entry to the race when he won the Turfway Park Fall Championship by 5 3/4 lengths. He earned a BSF of 100 for that effort. Jockey Jon Court will probably retain the mount. I’d love to see Court get a win in the Breeders Cup.

Muhannak will try and defend his title in the Marathon. He enters this race with better form than last year, finishing 5th of 12 in a Group 3 at Ascot last out. He earned a Racing Post Rating of 111 for that try. Depending on the pace situation he should be laying mid pack or towards the rear of the field. His jockey would wise not to strike the lead too early, as he was nearly caught last year.

The nine-year-old gelding Cloudy’s Knight will have a big shot at winning for trainer Jonathan Sheppard. The son of Avie’s Lord has raced just twice this year with wins in the Kentucky Cup Turf, and Sycamore. Both were Grade 3 events.  The old warrior was a Grade 1 winner in 2007, and looks to still have that form. Sheppard is a genius with horses that race at exceptionally long distances and he will have this one ready to run the race of his life.

The three-year-old colts Man of Iron and Mastery both looks tough shipping in from Europe. Man of Iron is a son of Giant’s Causeway and Better Than Honour. Some may recall Better Than Honour as the dam that produced Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil. She also produced Japanese star Casino Drive. He is certainly bred to win a Breeders Cup race.  Mastery won the Grade 1 St Ledger Stakes last out. He looks to be on the improve and should hold a very strong hand in this race.

Other interesting entries include Black Astor, Father Time, and Sir Dave. Who do you like in the Breeders Cup Marathon?

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Breeders Cup Turf Sprint Preview

October 29, 2009 By Leave a Comment


Last year was the inaugural running of the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. Desert Code came charging down the lane late to take the race from Diabolical. I still have a bad taste in my mouth over this race, because I bet Diabolical pretty heavy at odds of 10-1. I wish I had back wheeled him, because Desert Code was around 36-1. This year’s running should be just as exciting. Let’s take a glance at some of the horses that may be in the race.

2008 and 2009 Morvich Handicap winner California Flag is expected to give the Turf Sprint another try after finishing 10th last year. He has raced only twice this year and should be very fresh according to trainer Brian Koriner. The gray gelding has excellent early zip, but will need things to be less hectic on the front end this time around. He has an advantage over many in the race because he has won several times over this unique down hill turf course. Jockey Joe Talamo could get his first Breeders Cup victory on California Flag if things play out right for him.

Silver Timber is expected to compete in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint after winning the Woodford last out over Mr Nightlinger. The gelding was claimed for $25k earlier this year by owner Michael Dubb and trainer Chad Brown. The trainer was quoted saying that Silver Timber has never looked as good as he did in his last work. Brown won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year with Maram.

Cannonball will certainly be a force for trainer Wes Ward. The four-year-old gelded son of Catienus was runner up in a Group 1 race at Royal Ascot this summer. His last trip to the track was a victory in a NY bred stakes race. He is a consistent horse and lightly raced this year. If he brings the race that earned him second in England he will have a huge shot at becoming a Breeders Cup winner.

Defending champ Desert Code will probably get plenty of support at the windows despite finishing poorly in the Morvich Handicap last out. He had a brutally fast pace to run at when he won last year, and unless something like that happens again I don’t know if he can win this race. It seems like he has lost a step in his last few races.

Other interesting contenders include Strike the Deal, Diamondrella, Get Funky, Gotta Have Her, and Square Eddie. A full list of pre entries can be found by clicking here.

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