May 18, 2012

Havre de Grace geared up for Breeders Cup Classic run

The United States lacked a truly top horse at the beginning of 2011. Stars of yesteryear like Blame, Zenyatta, Quality Road, Lookin At Lucky and many more had taken up new roles in the breeding end of the industry.

Thankfully, it didn’t take long for a new King of the Hill to emerge. Wait; sorry, I meant Queen of the Hill.

Just like Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta before her, Havre de Grace (Saint Liam x Easter Bunette by Carson City) took on the boys and beat them. Her race of choice was the Woodward where she made easy work of top older horse Flat Out. That horse returned to be an easy winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Havre de Grace’s campaign this year has been nothing short of spectacular. Highlights include a victory in the Apple Blossom from Oaklawn and a breath taking stretch duel in the Delaware Handicap where Blind Luck bested her by a mere nose. She followed that up with her aforementioned Woodward win and was last seen taking the Beldame by a city block.

All of her brilliance has trainer Larry Jones and owner Rick Porter thinking Horse of the Year, but she is still missing a crown jewel achievement. She is missing a win in the Breeders Cup World Championships.

Never a tandem to shy away from top competition, they are taking their mare to the Breeders Cup Classic. Not surprising given that Jones, a trainer of several champions, believes this lass is the best horse he has ever trained.

Despite being a rare case of a female taking on the boys in the Classic, Havre de Grace figures to be sent off as the second betting choice.  After all, her form is almost flawless.

Do you think she will beat the boys? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

In the mean time, check out our Breeders Cup Picks page for information on how to get our selections for all 15 Breeders Cup races!

2011 Breeders Cup from Churchill Downs Picks, Tips & Selections


Breeders Cup Picks 2011

The Breeders Cup World Championships are the best two days of racing in the entire world, bar none. Visitors to this site know that we deal with the crème de la crème. Graded stakes races are our specialty and we thrive with them.

This year, like the past 4, we will be helping you handicap the biggest races in the world. Here is a look at some of our notable scores in 2011.

As you can see we have done great work in top races. Whether it’s hitting $378 exactas straight, $44,750.70  superfectas, or a big $52.40 winner, our site can help you cash big on Breeders Cup day. All of the above picks were available for free and you can find more on our Free Horse Racing Picks page.

Below you will find several packages of Breeders Cup Picks. Choose the one that suits you best and find it on the drop down menu near the “Buy Now” button. Selections will be sent via email upon receipt of payment and at least 24 hours prior to the first post time at Churchill Downs.

Also, please consider playing the Breeders Cup with Twin Spires or TVG. They are two stellar ADWs for online horse betting and both have great sign up bonuses worth at least $100. Check out our Horse Betting page to learn more about them and other great places to bet the ponies online.

Breeders Cup Friday Picks ($14.99)

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Breeders Cup Saturday Picks ($14.99)

  • This package includes our top selection to WIN in every Breeders Cup race on Saturday.
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  • Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5 plays
  • Pick 6 play

Breeders Cup Friday+Saturday Picks ($26.99)

  • Purchasers of this package get picks for both days.
  • Top Selections to win EVERY Breeders Cup race
  • Assorted Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta plays
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Breeders Cup Picks

 

 

Uncle Mo on quest for 2011 Breeders Cup Classic

The first time I saw Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie x Playa Maya by Arch) on paper he had yet to race. His works were pretty darn sharp and combined with his top flight connections and pedigree he looked like a sure thing to win his debut.

Despite his good looks, I don’t think any of us saw his 14 ¼ length romp in the unveiling coming. He covered the six furlongs distance in a blazing 1:09 1/5 seconds under a vigorous hand ride and earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. It was easily one of the most impressive first starts by any horse, ever.

We all knew from that day forward Uncle Mo was a name we wouldn’t soon forget. He made his next start in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes where he crushed the competition by 4 ¾ lengths. After that he ran away from the highly talented Boys At Tosconova to take the Breeders Cup Juvenile by 4 ¼  lengths in a swift time of 1: 42 3/5 seconds. Just as his debut was one of the best of all time, his Breeders Cup efforts ranks as arguably the greatest in contention with Arazi and War Pass.

Uncle Mo’s three year old campaign started with an easy win in the Timely Writer from Gulfstream. He should have competed in the Kentucky Derby, but he succombed to illness in the Wood Memorial where he suffered his first defeat finishing 1 ¼ lengths behind Toby’s Corner in third.

At this point everyone and their brother came out against the Mo saying he couldn’t get the classic distance or that he just wasn’t as good as we thought. This is hogwash. Uncle Mo could have died from the GI tract infection from which it was later discovered that he had. Not only did he have a GI tract infection, but he also suffered from a liver infection called cholangiohepatitis.

The three year old division mired in the abscence of its king. Animal Kingdom wore the roses and while he was probably a legitimately top horse, I can’t say the same for Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont Stakes winner Ruler on Ice. The Travers victor and stablemate of Mo, Stay Thirsty, just isn’t quite on the level of Uncle Mo either.

Uncle Mo worked very well towards his first race back which was to be the King’s Bishop. He had lost a lot of weight while sick, but leading up to his return he was looking quite healthy. Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole had me thinking he couldn’t lose. Well, he did, but there was plenty to be happy and excited about.

First of all, Uncle Mo proved once and for all that he can rate. This horse has a high cruising speed and can make the front if needed, but launching a bid from fourth he took the lead and was just barely caught by a streaking Caleb’s Posse to lose by a mere nose. This is an extremely important thing for Mo. Plenty of great horses can motor to the front, but not all of them can relax and pass horses.

Almost as important as proving he can rate, Mo showed he is still the same horse and maybe even better than before. Losing by a nose to a top sprinter like Caleb’s Posse after not having raced since April is no small feat. The seven furlongs distance is very tough for anyone let alone a horse that could be short, but Mo handled it superbly.

Uncle Mo’s next start would come in the Kelso Handicap going a flat mile at Belmont. He quickly went to the front and never looked back winning with the greatest amount of ease over Grade 1 winners Jackson Bend and Jersey Town. The colt got a Beyer Speed Figure of 118 which will easily be the best in the field for his next race, the Breeders Cup Classic.

I’ve never seen a horse as good as Uncle Mo in my lifetime. That’s saying something considering the monsters I’ve watched compete on the racetrack. None of them possess the raw talent that Uncle Mo does. I don’t think we have seen his best stuff yet and if he shows it in the Breeders Cup Classic the rest of the field is in big trouble. I

I’m not concerned about the mile and a quarter distance in the slighest. Mo has got stamina on the back end as his mare is from the classic line of sire Arch and he is just plain that much better than everyone else. He will racing over a track he clearly loves too.

It’s been a long road for the uber fast colt named Uncle Mo and I think that road ends with a triumph in the Breeders Cup Classic.

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Headache & Where’s Sterling aiming for Breeders Cup after 1-2 finish in Hawthorne Gold Cup

Mike Maker’s former claimer Headache forged to the front in the late stages of the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup to narrowly defeat Nick Canani’s colt Where’s Sterling by about ¾ of a length. Now the Bluegrass Stakes winning trainer says the gelding will take on the best the world has to offer in the Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill Downs.

Crazy?

Maybe, but let’s consider that the horse will never get to run for anywhere near $5 million ever again. He has improved vastly this year and dispatched a good field in the Cornhusker Handicap at Prairie Meadows over the summer. Headache loves the track at Churchill Downs too so he’s got that going for him. It wouldn’t shock or surprise to see him pick up third or fourth in America’s richest race.

Mike Maker had this to say to Marcus Hersh of the Daily Racing Form:

“He’s always had a few quirks – making the lead too early, being in front of horses, stringing together a bunch of second-place finishes,” said Maker, who trains Headache for Ken and Sarah Ramsey. “He’s always trained like we were underachieving with him. We feel like we’re getting the best out of his abilities now.”

Where’s Sterling is also considering a trip to Churchill Downs, albeit in a much lesser race; the Breeders Cup Marathon. The colt is getting better all the time and he did win the Grade 3 Iselin Stakes at Monmouth Park two races back. He will be in with a shot if he makes it to that race.

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2011 Breeders Cup Future Odds & Picks

 

Wynn|Encore has posted a future book of odds for the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup. I always like to take a look at stuff like this. Let’s break down each race with a look at key contenders and some of the plays I would make if  given the chance.

Breeders Cup Classic

This is going to be quite an interesting race in 2011. The older horse division is quite lacking and the three year olds have been largely inconsistent. This leaves room for two types of horses we normally wouldn’t consider all too much. That is a filly or invader from overseas.

The latter may come in the form of 6-1 morning line favorite So You Think. The New Zealand bred is a winner of 12 races from 17 starts and he most recently took the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes. Before that he beat 2010 Arc winner Workforce in the Eclipse Stakes. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never been shy about sending horses to America and with a $5 million purse on the line it isn’t hard to imagine this one making the trip.

My first choice for a wager would be Uncle Mo at a fat price of 40-1. He couldn’t have been any more impressive in the King’s Bishop where he raced off a very long layoff and proved he could rate while being nipped a nose at one of the hardest distances around. The colt has more pure talent than any horse in training and if he can put it all together it’s hard for me to see him losing. The 10 furlongs distance is a question, but at the huge price of 40-1 he is well worth the risk. He should race again in the Pennsylvania Derby and then target the Classic, but nothing is set in stone.

After Uncle Mo I would have to snatch up his stable mate Stay Thirsty at 12-1. The late blooming son of Bernardini has proven himself with three strong runs in the Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes. If he can run as well under the twin spires as he does in New York then he will likely be among the first 3 choices on race day.

It would be hard for me to talk anyone off the filly Havre de Grace at 9-1. She won the Woodward easily and if a big time European horse doesn’t show up she could among the top 2 or 3 choices on race day.

Breeders Cup Ladies Classic

I’m not too wild about this race from a future betting perspective. The top two in the division are Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. The casino knows that and both are 2-1. Hardly any value taking a 2-1 shot two months before the race. Two fillies I think stand a chance of upsetting are the three year olds It’s Tricky and Zazu. The former is a good price at 14-1 with the latter sitting at 20-1. It’s Tricky posted strong efforts in the Mother Goose as well as the CCA Oaks. If she rebounds with a win in the Cotillion she will be a much lower price on Breeders Cup Friday. Zazu was most recently second in her first try against older horses in the Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar.

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

This is another race where we could see Uncle Mo. If he ends up here I think he rolls so I have to go with him at 25-1. I believe he ends up in the Classic, but I’d hate to see him here and not have a few bucks to win. After Mo I like the rapidly improving Justin Phillip. The Zayat owned colt won the Woody Stephens Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard and was most recently third behind Caleb’s Posse and Uncle Mo in the King’s Bishop. If he keeps improving he will have a big shot at an enormous price of 30-1. He is currently targeting the Vosburgh and may be Breeders Cup Sprint bound, but at such a huge price it’s worth taking a chance.

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Breeders Cup Sprint

The Sprint has always been a race where something crazy can happen. Last year we saw Big Drama take the field gate to wire at 6-1 and he is favored to do so again at the same price in the future book. On his best day it’s hard to see anyone competing with him, but the horse has had just 2 races since last year. If he makes it to the gate and he is the same horse that won last year he will be strong.

As far as horse betting goes, I’ve got to look in another direction. Last year’s third place finisher, Smiling Tiger, is being offered at 14-1. The son of Hold That Tiger has won 3 graded races this year and has proven he likes the track/distance at Churchill Downs. When he’s on his game he can run with anyone.

Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf

It’s tough for me to get excited about this race. I’ve never been much of a fan of turf fillies. The favorite is the razor sharp Midday at 3-1. The mare won the Group 1 Nassau two back and was second to Twice Over in the Juddmonte International last out. She won this race in 2009 and was second last year.

Summer Soiree is an interesting option at 35-1. She was last seen winning the Del Mar Oaks. She is a lightning quick filly, but could have a tough time at the distance.

Daveron, winner of the Ballston Spa last out, should be considered at 30-1. She is only now coming into her own and could be peaking for Team Valor in the Breeders Cup.

Breeders Cup Turf

The co-favorites to win this race are Aidan O’Brien’s Cape Blanco and So You Think at 5-1. We have already spoke about the latter in the Classic division. Cape Blanco has crushed the competition in his time in America with wins in the Man O’ War and Arlington Million. He should be a force if he makes it to the race, but taking him at 5-1 isn’t advisable.

Irish Derby and Secretariat Stakes winner Treasure Beach is definitely tempting at 20-1, but I worry that O’Brien would keep him home if Cape Blanco is doing well.

Breeders Cup Mile

Goldikova seems to have this race on lock down and she will try for a record fourth win in 2011. The mare is as good as they come and hasn’t slowed down. Her odds stand at 5/2 in the future book. The only horse I could really see beating her is Courageous Cat and his odds are too low at 5-1.

What do you think of the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup? Plan to make some bets? Check out our Horse Betting page to learn more.

Zenyatta: 19 for 20

I had a hard time choosing a  title for this article. How do you describe what happened in the Breeders Cup Classic last night? It’s not easy.

Even though I had Lookin at Lucky and Blame on my tickets, I felt a weird feeling as Zenyatta ranged up. My heart wanted her to run past Blame even though my money wasn’t on her. Never before have I felt so conflicted about a horse race.

I’ve always given Zenyatta a hard time and been a big doubter of hers. Of course I knew she was a magnificent racehorse. She didn’t win 19 races in a row for no reason. I just always doubted that she was one of the greatest ever. After her courageous run to just miss yesterday I can say without any doubt she is the best female horse to ever step on the track. She would give some of those top boys a run for their money too!

I’d like to thank John Sheriffs, Jerry Moss, Ann Moss, and Mike Smith for keeping Zenyatta around in 2010. They didn’t have to do that, but they did it for US. They did it for the horse racing industry. We all owe them a huge debt. It’s been a pleasure to watch them campaign Zenyatta the past three years.

We as fans of horse racing are so blessed. In the past few years we have been able to witness some of the finest horses to race in decades. Not just Zenyatta, but Rachel Alexandra, Curlin, Smarty Jones, and Rags to Riches to name a few.  I love them all and I look forward to seeing more of the great ones in the future.

Perhaps as Zenyatta’s star shined for the final time, we witnessed the next beast in Uncle Mo. It’s to early to say, but anything is possible. Hey, he is undefeated; for now.

Zenyatta showed us that nothing in life is perfect. In a way that makes her even better than before in my eyes.

Feel free to discuss this post by leaving a comment below. I’d love to hear your thoughts!

Zenyatta Ramblings

  • I couldn’t sleep so I decided to write a few things floating in my mind about Zenyatta. Feel free to comment!

What is the first thing that comes to mind when you hear someone talk about Zenyatta? Comments like “She’s never lost”, or “She always wins” are quickly tossed around, but will we still be able to say that moments after the sun sets and the Breeders Cup Classic has concluded on November 6?

Every time she has needed to, the mare has stepped up to the plate, but we must not forget she is still mortal. She’s a horse. Secretariat lost, as did Citation, Seattle Slew, Man O’ War, Seabiscuit, War Admiral, and countless other legends of the game. If they are capable of defeat, why isn’t Zenyatta?

The latest detractors of Zenyatta have cited an off track as her biggest enemy when it comes to a repeat victory in the Breeders Cup Classic.  After all, she has never ran on such a surface. A quick look at PPs show that her wet Tomlinson Rating is 467. For those unfamiliar with the ratings, that is a VERY high number. The wet surface is unlikely to hinder her performance, although it will make the track conducive to speed.

Even though her Tomlinson number is high, running on a wet track is one of those things where you don’t know for sure until the animal does it. Some may recall the connections scratched her from the Louisville Stakes in 2009 after the track came up wet. I bet they wish they would’ve given it a shot now.

As many have noted the class of this field is much better than any Zenyatta has tangled with yet. Lookin At Lucky, Blame, and Quality Road will be the three best horses she has ever faced once the race is over. The pace also promises to be the quickest, which in theory will work to her favor.

Be sure to tune into 60 Minutes this Sunday night as they will be doing a feature on the greatest mare of our generation. Also be sure to be watch the Classic on November 6 as the debate will finally end on whether or not Zenyatta is one of the greatest ever. Win or lose, greatest or not, she is one heck of a racehorse.

2010 Breeders Cup Classic Preview

Some call it the biggest race in the world, or perhaps the most important. The winner is more often than not named Horse of the Year. The race is the Breeders Cup Classic, and the stakes are clearly high. I covered the race extensively for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association last year. My top pick, Quality Road, was scratched at the gate. It feels like just yesterday this race ran, but much has happened since then. Let’s examine the race!

The $5,000,000 event returns to Churchill Downs and natural dirt this year. Defending champion Zenyatta will be a definitive favorite. The undefeated mare is 19 for 19 on her career with wins in the Santa Margarita, Apple Blossom, Vanity, Clement L. Hirsch, and Lady’s Secret this year. It’s clear that she hasn’t defeated much outside of the mare St.

Trinians this year, but the same could have been said in 2009. Trainer John Sheriffs says she is as good or  better now than when she won in 2009. Jockey Mike Smith feels the same way.

Zenyatta’s closing kick is among the best in the history of thoroughbred racing, and you can bank on her mowing horses down in the stretch. She isn’t a lock though. This will be the best field she has ever faced by far. This will also be her first time running over the track. Weather can always be a factor too. Zenyatta has never competed on a wet track.

In my eyes, she will have to out kick Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky, and Foster Handicap winner  Blame. That won’t be done easily. Obviously, her chances are big, but just like in 2009, I’m not willing to concede this thing to her. That doesn’t mean I’m foolish enough to leave her off my tickets though! I’ve always been a bit of a doubter about Zenyatta, but if she can win this race I’ll finally agree that she is one of the best to ever step on the track.

The second choice in this race will be Al Stall and Claiborne Farm’s Blame. The son of Arch is a wonderful animal. I remember having dinner after  a day at Keeneland earlier this year where I chatted with his exercise rider. He said he would be Horse of the Year before Blame had even ran a race. If he is able to win this race then the exercise rider will be right.

Blame is ridden by Garrett Gomez. The journeyman jockey has ice in his veins and will make sure this guy gets an excellent ride. Blame’s closing style should do him well here. He has proved in the past he can make up ground if the pace is slow. That shouldn’t be the case here.  He’s a bit of a grinder. It looked as if he was dead in the water late in the Whitney against Quality Road, but he was able to dig deep and get past him.

Despite all the great things he has done this year, Blame lost his last race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when Haynesfield wired the field. That doesn’t bother me at all. I don’t want my horse peaking in his prep race. I believe Blame is ready to run the race of his life at Churchill Downs on November 6. That doesn’t mean he will be my top pick though. I’m going to wait for the PPs and watch the news closely before I make that  decision. However, he is definitely on the short list!

The third choice in the Breeders Cup Classic betting will be Preakness Stakes, and Haskell Invitational winner Lookin At Lucky. The three-year-old is one of the most tenacious animals alive. He just keeps on coming no matter what the circumstances are. He may not win, but Lucky is going to run his heart out trying. You can bank on that. The Martin Garcia piloted son of Smart Strike has one thing going for him that no one else does. That is Bob Baffert.

The silver haired Hall of Fame member is the best trainer in the world. To you that may be an opinion, but to me it is a fact. I’ll take Bob Baffert with a talented colt over just about anyone else in most cases. His charge can get the distance and he loves the surface. He’s also quick enough to get to the leaders before Zenyatta or Blame. If he strikes the lead, will be passed?  To the best of my knowledge, Lookin At Lucky has never been passed after  he has struck the lead. That may not matter, because many things that have never happened before happen all the time. Especially in the Breeders Cup!

My top pick from 2009, Quality Road, never got to strut his stuff as he was scratched at the gate. I probably won’t go with him again this year. I just don’t believe the son of Elusive Quality can go the 10 furlongs distance.  He is extremely classy, and if this race were a little shorter he would be very, very, tough. Who can forget his win in the Metropolitan Mile this year? It’s not out of the question for him to get a piece, but to me he likely isn’t a win candidate this time around.

Other candidates for the Breeders Cup Classic are First Dude, Fly Down, Espoir City, Haynesfield, Paddy O’ Prado, Musket Man, Crown of Thorns, Gitano Hernando, and Morning Line. The chances of a horse other than Zenyatta, Blame, Lookin at Lucky, or Quality Road winning the Classic are minute, but anything can happen as Wild Again proved in the first running of the race at huge odds.

Who do you like in the Breeders Cup Classic?

Connections of Pleasant Prince once again living in a fantasy world

Remember the Florida Derby runner up Pleasant Prince? Owner Ken Ramsey desperately tried to get him in the Kentucky Derby by running him in the Bluegrass Stakes, and then the Derby Trial the week before. In the end, he was unable to get enough earnings. He ended up trying the Preakness and finished up the track.

It seems Mr. Ramsey is at it again. After a win in the Oklahoma Derby over a field that can be described as mediocre at best, he is pointing his son of Indy King to the $5 million Breeders Cup Classic. Thats right, the richest race in the U.S. after a win in the Oklahoma Derby.

Why do the Ramseys insist on running this colt over his head? He is very clearly Gr.2 caliber at best. If he ever wins a Gr.1 race I would be very surprised, let alone a Breeders Cup race. I hope that a deserving contender isn’t left out because of this likely 80-1 shot. Luckily, I doubt that will happen. From 3/20 to 5/15 he ran the colt 4 times in a desperate attempt to make the Kentucky Derby. He’s doing the colt no favors by sending him out against competition that he can’t keep up with.

I cringe to think what would happen if Ramsey got a hold of a three-year-old that WAS good enough for these races. Earlier in the year he tried to justify running this colt back in a week if he were to win the Derby Trial by saying that horses like Whirlaway had successful completed the double.

Clearly, Pleasant Prince is no Whirlaway.

Haynesfield upsets in Jockey Club Gold Cup to top exciting weekend!

Well, I knew he was lone speed, but I didn’t think Haynesfield was classy enough to take them all the way in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. How wrong I was! The son of Speightstown proved his pedigree wrong and got stronger as the race got longer to register his first Grade 1 victory. Blame, the 3-5 favorite, finished well back in second. Travers runner up Fly Down was third.

Trainer Steve Asmussen is considering the Breeders Cup Classic for Haynesfield. Unless he freaks in that race he has almost no chance at all to win.  I’ve always liked the horse, but he is a cut below the best in the nation. His freakish performance was the result of a lack of pace and a short field. I’d like to see him in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. It is likely he would be in with a big shot to win that race.

I’m glad that Blame lost. He’s been my Breeders Cup Classic horse for a long time. All that his loss in the Jockey Club will do is ripen his price for the Classic. I’m every bit as confident in him as I was before he ran second. The son of Arch will be peaking in November and charging late with an enormous shot to win the $5 million race.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup wasn’t the only big race this weekend.

The Cotillion saw Havre de Grace finally get the better of Blind Luck, although narrowly. The rivalry between the three-year-old fillies is shaping up as the best in the nation. It is likely both will make their next start in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic. They will meet Life At Ten there. She won the Beldame on Saturday against a decent, but small field. The Ladies Classic looks to be one of the best betting races of the Breeders Cup.

Giralamo got the best of Riley Tucker to beat what was a very weak group in the Vosburgh. It’s always tough to say this far in advance, but I have a hard time seeing him run big in the Breeders Cup Sprint. I could be wrong, because just as the Vosburgh was a weak group, so could be the Sprint. Anything can happen. He’s a nice horse, but I just wonder why he didn’t beat Riley Tucker by more. I’ve never thought much of Riley Tucker.

In your mind, what was the highlight of the racing this weekend? Are you excited for the Breeders Cup? Leave a comment and discuss!