Flat Out

The 2012 Grade 1 Donn Handicap (Saturday|Race 10|Gulfstream) has attracted a deeply contentious field of 11 contenders. Notable recent winners include Quality Road in 2010, Invasor in 2007 and Saint Liam in 2005. This year’s winner could become a top contender for the world’s richest race; the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 31. There is a 50% chance of rain as of Saturday.

Where’s Sterling (Northern Afleet x Twinkler by Benny The Dip) will break from the rail after posting a very sharp gate breeze in 1:25 4/5 seconds for seven furlongs on January 25. The Nick Canani colt owns a strong record over the Gulfstream strip with two wins and two second place finishes from four starts. He hasn’t lost in two tries at the distance. Jose Lezcano gets the call to ride.

Todd Pletcher’s Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) has two decent races over this surface, but most of his best running has been done at Churchill Downs. I expect him to race too close to the pace under JJ Castellano. He will pay for that in the late stages of the Donn Handicap.

Last year’s Belmont Stakes winner, Ruler on Ice (Roman Ruler x Champagne Glow by Saratoga Six) hasn’t won in his last five trips to the track, but that could end here. The gelding has been freshened up and is working like he’s sitting on a big race. He fired three consecutive bullets at Palm Meadows prior to his last work, including five furlongs in :58 1/5 B. Anna Napravnik will get aboard for trainer Kelly Breen. This guys best race came over a sloppy track so the connections will likely be doing a race dance.

Dick Dutrow will send out two horses, the first of which is Redeemed (Include x Early Mass by Pleasant Tap). The versatile equine registered a powerful victory last out in the Grade 3 Discovery Stakes at Aqueduct. Before that he beat two top horses in the form of Alternation and Prayer For Relief while winning the Oklahoma Derby. Edgar Prado will ride the Jay Em Ess entry.

Cam Gambolati’s Soaring Empire (Empire Maker x Flying Passage by A.P. Indy) loves racing at Gulfstream. His best win came in last year’s Grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes. He was also second by a neck in last years Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes and Gulfstream Park Handicap. He was last seen getting tired in this year’s Hal’s Hope after making the lead at the top of the stretch. That was his first race since the end of July and it should have him good and ready to fire a big shot here. Julien Leparoux will pilot the closer.

Al Khali (Medaglia d’Oro x Maya by Capote) has raced primarily on the grass, but does own three wins on the dirt. Bill Mott has him cross entered in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. He hasn’t won since Hector was a pup and will have to contend with a four month layoff.

Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil by Cresta Rider) is one of the best older horses around when he’s on his game. He proved that last year with wins in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap and the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He failed as the favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Grade 1 Clark Handicap. I’m willing to forgive those efforts. He doesn’t like the track at Churchill Downs. I’m also going to throw out his last race on the turf where he finished dead last. He’s not a turf horse. The works since that race are strong and he moves back to a dirt route. That makes him deadly.

Trickmeister (Proud Citizen x Afternoon Trick by Afternoon Deelites) hasn’t lost or been challenged in five starts, but hasn’t faced a field even close to as good as this one yet. The Dutrow trainee will get to the front and take them as far as he can. I don’t expect that to be very far. Ramon Dominguez gets the call to ride as JJ Castellano chose to retain the mount on Mission Impazible.

Last year’s Preakness winner Shackleford (Forestry x Oatsee by Unbridled) almost went all the way to win last year’s Grade 1 Florida Derby, but was caught on the wire by Dialed In. I’ve got a feeling the layoff wont hurt him too much, but I’m just not sure he truly wants to go this far against horses of this quality. It wouldn’t shock or surprise to see him win, but I’m leaning against it. Jesus Castanon rides for Dale Romans.

Hymn Book (Arch x Vespers by Known Fact) charged down the lane to be second in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last out. It was a very good effort as To Honor And Serve wasn’t going to lose that day. His best race is good enough to win this thing. John Velazquez gets back up for Shug Mcgaughey.

He hasn’t won in a very long time, but Sangaree (Awesome Again x Mari’s Sheba by Mari’s Book) looked well last out to be second in the Hal’s Hope behind dominant winner Jackson Bend. If that race is any indication, he could be ready to move forward again at a big price. Rajiv Maragh will pilot this horse for Kiaran Mclaughlin.

My top selection to win the 2012 Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park is Ruler on Ice. I think the time off has done him well and it appears he is kicking the barn down. The gelding will get plenty of pace to chase and an off track will work to his advantage should one turn up. Key contenders include Flat Out, Soaring Empire and Redeemed.

Gladding Glides took his competition all the way in the San Antonio. The FL shipper set an easy pace and dug in when the time came. Bob Baffert’s Spurrier claimed the second spot. The favored Aggie Engineer disappointed, ending up third. All in all, I think this was a weak race. I will reserve judgement on Gladding Glides until a later date.

Turbulent Descent was unable to get past Zazu in the Las Virgenes. The big gray filly looked great in holding off her previously undefeated foe. Zazu is owned by Jerry and Ann Moss. They have been blessed with yet another star racehorse. Trainer John Sadler scored the win. I was a bit surprised that the filly isn’t with John Sheriffs.

In other news, it appears Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer is getting ready for the Dubai World Cup. The WinStar crew is very happy with him and they say he is working well. As far as looks go, you won’t find many better than Drosselmeyer. The colt shines like a copper penny. Look for him to make his 2011 debut in the Grade 3 Mineshaft at Fair Grounds on 2/19.

I’m working hard on keeping the pages of this blog updated. I encourage checking out Free Horse Racing Picks, Kentucky Derby Contenders and Horse Rankings regularly. I’ve added three free picks for races at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park for Thursday and Friday. I’m particularly excited about Serena Song’s son of Storm Cat, Stormberg. He should be a nice price as he tries to break his maiden under Joe Bravo.

As there were no major three-year-old races over the weekend my rankings of the Kentucky Derby Contenders was unaffected. I’m still very high on Rogue Romance. I’ve got him placed at #2, which is higher than virtually anyone else out there. If he wins the Kentucky Derby I can honestly say I was one of his very first supporters. Look for him to start his march to the Run for the Roses in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds.

The Horse Rankings page saw a few moves, mostly in the older horse division. Twirling Candy moved up to #3 after an impressive win in the Strub Stakes. After his victory in the Donn Handicap I have moved Giant Oak up to #6. He was previously unranked. SunShine Millions Classic winner Tackleberry fell from the rankings. Haynesfield and Successful Dan remain 1-2 in the older horse division. Kathmanblu became the top horse in my three-year-old filly division after Turbulent Descent couldn’t move past Zazu who is now #5 in the division.

What did you think of this past weekends races? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

Good horse betting races have been sparse this year, but it looks like we have a great one lined up for Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the form of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. Last years edition of the 39 year old race was taken by Quality Road. The then four-year-old colt smashed the competition by over 10 lengths! Notable winners of the Donn include Forego, Foolish Pleasure, Pistols and Roses, Cigar, Skip Away, Medaglia d’Oro, Saint Liam and last but not least, Invasor. Let’s take a look at this years field!

#1 I Want Revenge – It seems like an eternity has passed since this son of Stephen Got Even crushed the field to take the Gotham Stakes and then overcome big time trouble to win the Wood Memorial. After taking the Wood he missed significant time due to injury. His next race came over a year later in the Suburban Handicap where he was third beaten four lengths by the front running Haynesfield. After that he was also third in the Iselin at Monmouth. Ramon Dominguez will ride for the first time. It should be interesting to see how much speed he shows. Ultimately, this is a tough field and he is entering off a long rest so that makes him an outsider. On his best day he is the best horse in this race though!

#2  Hear Ye Hear Ye – He hasn’t got a prayer of winning. Maybe he could run fourth by some fluke, but I doubt it.

#3 Morning Line – Zabeel Racing now co-owns this son of Tiznow with Thoroughbred Legends. The $700k auction purchase (separate from Zabeel) won the Pennsylvania Derby last year before running second by a head in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He was last seen finishing third in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hopes after setting the pace. He will be on the lead, but could catch pressure from Hear Ye Hear Ye, I Want Revenge, Square Eddie and Rule.  I don’t envision that being a problem. However, I do see the distance troubling him. Even though he won the Pennsylvania Derby at this distance, I just don’t think this horse is best when routing. He is a miler and will prove that in the final furlong of the race.

#4 Giant Oak – After watching the Clark Handicap, I had no idea how he ran so well. In retrospect, this is an improving horse. In his last four races he owns a win via DQ in the Clark and a second in two Grade 3 races. Still, I’m very skeptical about him. I’ve never thought he was very good and its hard to shake that thought once its planted. The pace set up will work in his favor as he will be rolling late. I won’t be surprised if the son of Giant’s Causeway checks in third or fourth.

#5 Eldaafer – The ice cold Edgar Prado picks up the mount on this gelded son of AP Indy who was last seen winning the Breeders Cup Marathon three months ago. He hasn’t seen a field this tough in his career despite winning a race that is Breeders Cup in name, but not in competition. Distance won’t be a problem, but when all is said and done this guy is probably the 6th or 7th best horse in the race. Long shot at best in my humble opinion.

#6 Fly Down – He just keeps on coming doesn’t he? The Nick Zito trainee finished third in the Breeders Cup Classic last out after just getting past fourth place finisher Lookin At Lucky. Before that race he was beaten 6 lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup by Haynesfield. He put in excellent efforts to be second by a nose in the Travers and second in the Belmont Stakes last year. He knows how to win races as he proved by taking the Dwyer by an emphatic six lengths.  Julien Leparoux will get the mount for the second time. He guided him to his third place finish in the Classic last out. Fly Down must concede at least 3 pounds to every horse in the race. He is working well, but it is advisable to take a shot against him in his first outing of the year.

#7 Square Eddie – WOW, what a run he put together in his first race since 2009 last out when he took an allowance event by 3 1/4 lengths. Study duty can wait a little longer. Trainer Doug O’Neill is excited about his chances as is jockey Corey Nakatani. I’ll take a wait and see approach. The surface he won on at Santa Anita is very hard to gauge right now. Also if he is so good why isn’t Joel Rosario here after winning on him last out? I could see Square Eddie running up the track or winning. Nothing he does will surprise me. Having said that I will pass and go with a more reliable horse.

#8 Rule - Todd Pletcher’s son of Roman Ruler rated nicely in his first try since the Florida Derby last out when jockey JJ Castellano guided him to a second place finish in the Hal’s Hope. He has excellent pedigree as his dam is half to Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. It will be interesting to see how close to the pace he is in this spot. He is working like a monster and it appears he hasn’t lost any of the talent he showed at the ages of two and three. I’d like to see him sit right behind the speed and pounce in his second try at 9 furlongs.

#9 Ron The Greek – Lezcano will get the call here on a horse who put together a nice runner up effort in optional claiming company last out. In that race he rallied from 14 lengths back to finish just 1 3/4 lengths behind stakes winning Our Dark Knight. If things get really hectic on the front end, which they could, Ron The Greek will be the prime beneficiary. The colt is classy enough to win this, but he will need help from the pace setters.

I’m going to make Rule my top selection to win the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. He showed a new dimension when he rallied from 5th last out and I think that will really work to his benefit here. I expect the jockey to lay right off the pace, go by Morning Line, and hold off the late charges from the closers. Other than Rule, I’m interested to see how I Want Revenge performs. I might take a flyer on him at a price, but he will probably need a race or two to get in gear. He might be able to find a spot in the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta. I’m really hoping he returns to top form.

Who do you like in the 39th renewal of the Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park? Leave a comment and let your voice be heard!

I wasn’t too happy when I awoke Saturday morning to learn that Santa Anita had cancelled racing. 3 of the 6 races on my tip sheet were on the card and I felt very good about my chances in the Robert B Lewis. The remaining three races were solid. I had $17.40 winner Peppi Knows in the Whirlaway who was my de facto top selection after the defection of Turf Melody. That race was marred when jockey Jorge Chavez fell off the heavily favored Eightyfiveinafifty who jumped the rail. I have read reports that Chavez is OK, and the horse sustained only a minor injury. I am thankful for that. I love to win, but the well being of the horses and jockeys comes first!

The remaining two races I had given picks for were the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and the Donn Handicap. My top pick in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap was Yate’s Black Cat, who was a victim of a poor ride by Kent Desormeaux, although he probably wasn’t good enough regardless. Kent tried to go through what I call a “phantom hole”. There was no place for him to move, and his horse clipped heels with Take The Points who was DQed from the win. Court Vision benefited from the decision and was placed first at odds of 4-5.

I strongly disagree with the decision to remove Take The Points from first, and I read that Todd Pletcher may appeal the decision. My comments for the race noted that Yate’s Black Cat was my top choice narrowly over Take The Points, and I used both on top in my exotic bets. Take The Points DQ cost me a trifecta. Although it wasn’t going to pay a ton for a buck, it was a cheap ticket and I had a $5 wager.

I had Quality Road winning the Donn Handicap, along with everyone else on the planet. He returned $2.80 for the win. Dry Martini rallied for second and Delightful Kiss was third. I was able to come up with the exacta that paid $17.20 for $2 on a ticket that cost $6. My trifecta ticket cost $16 to bet and returned $93. I knew I wasn’t going to be able to break the bank with these races, but I am glad I hit them regardless of how much they paid. Like they old saying goes; you can pick the winner but you can’t pick the price.

This weekends lineup includes horse racing picks for Saturday and Presidents Day.

• Sam Davis Stakes
• Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship
• Las Virgenes Stakes
• Robert B Lewis Stakes
• Strub Stakes
• Hurricane Bertie Stakes
• General George Breeders Cup Handicap
• Southwest Stakes
• San Vicente Stakes

I love Quality Road. I’ve followed this colt very closely since he won the Fountain of Youth last year. He was my Kentucky Derby pick until he was hurt, and I also picked him to win the Breeders Cup Classic. Unfortunately, he didn’t get to race in the Classic and was scratched at the gate. Since that little hiccup in his career he has won the Hal’s Hope Handicap and looks poised to annex the Donn Handicap this weekend. If he continues at this rate he will certainly have a chance to avenge his scratch in the Breeders Cup with another try this year. Let’s take a look at some of his competition this Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Past The Point has seen a resurgance in form lately and looks to be the best opponent for Quality Road. The son of Indian Charlie has nice early speed. He nearly slayed the giant we know as Curlin in the 2008 Woodward. His last race was a second place finish behind top sprinter Custom For Carlos in the Grade 3 Mr Prospector. Edgar Prado will have the mount for the third time in a row, and after perusing through the PPs it seems that this horse responds best to Prado. It will take a monumental effort to bring Quality Road to his knees, but Past The Point is the most likely candidate.

Duke of Mischief will also give it a shot. The David Fawkes trainee ran a huge figure last out when he took the closed into very slow fractions to take the Grade 3 Fort Lauterdale. He ran strongly last year when he took the Iowa Derby, but ran into the buzzsaw known as Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Stakes where he was defeated by 18 lengths. His form has improved this year, but it will take a career effort to win this race.

Other entries include Kiss The Kid, Dry Martini, You And I Forever, Helsinki, and Mambo Meister. Who do you like in the Donn Handicap? Check out the Buy Picks page on the red toolbar if you are interested in my picks and plays for this race along with several others for this weekend!

I felt like Tuscan Evening had a chance in the Monrovia Handicap, but I went to another horse for better value. I guess I shoud’ve remembered the age old saying; take what you can get. This mare was an easy winner under jockey Rafeale Bejarano for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. She is using this race as a springboard for the Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap on January 31. If she runs like she did in the Monrovia then she will have a huge shot. Evita Argentina is also aiming for the race after winning the Grade 1 La Brea last out. I’d have a hard time betting against Evita Argentina going 7 furlongs.

Sunday saw the opening of Gulfstream Park and the debut of a Kentucky Derby contender. Tahitian Warrior went wire to wire under jockey E T Baird. He finished the six furlongs in 1:09.96 while finishing the last furlong in under 12 seconds. Tahitian Warrior was clear by 4 3/4 lengths at the wire. He didn’t look like he was trying very hard. He beat a strong field that included 2 horses purchased for $500k or more. I’d definitely add this horse to my list of early contenders for the First Saturday in May.

That wasn’t the only news out of Gulfstream Park. Florida Derby winner Quality Road returned to the scene of the crime for the Hal’s Hope Handicap. He couldn’t have won any easier than he did. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he is the best older horse in training. The only horse I can see giving him trouble is Rail Trip, and we have no idea how he would handle a dirt surface. Quality Road had no trouble at the gate this time and will be pointing towards the Donn Handicap. If he is successful there I envision him heading to Dubai for the Dubai World Cup. I love this horse and I hope he gets it done every time out this year.

Any thoughts on this weekends racing? Anything on your mind in general? Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts.