February 8, 2012

Handicapping the Fair Grounds Pick 4

Fair Grounds is the place to be this weekend.  They have four very strong races in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, Mineshaft Handicap, Fair Grounds Handicap and Risen Star Stakes. Those four races make up the late 50¢ Pick 4 and are the beginning of the $1 Pick 6. Let’s breakdown my Pick 4 ticket. Join our mailing list for a chance to see my Pick 6 ticket as well as selections from across the nation this weekend. You can do so by entering your name and email address in the form located to the right of this post.

Rachel Alexanda Stakes

Kathmanblu is our top rated three-year-old filly and a clear stand out in this race. The Bluegrass Cat filly has two sharp works since easily taking a $100k minor stakes on the grass. That was after she romped home in the Golden Rod by 8.5 lengths. The price will be short, but they aren’t beating here and I’m not going to waste money trying.

Mineshaft Handicap

This is a tricky race. I’m going with last years Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible as my top selection. He needed his race last out which was his first try since finishing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. He was second that day, but with the added distance his chances improve. Look for him to rate just behind the speed and pounce when the time is right for underrated jockey Rajiv Maragh. I’ll also use Apart, Le Grand Cru and Country Flavor.

Fair Grounds Handicap

Workin For Hops gets a very favorable pace scenario for his first race off the shelf. I love the fact that ace jockey Anna Napravnik opted to get off Gran Estreno to ride him. This is his first race since late September, but he has won on a big layoff before. I’m going to take a chance and leave Gran Estreno off my ticket. The 8-year-old isn’t suited for this distance and the older a horse gets the harder it is to run back to back strong races.  Dubious Miss should put in a strong run from the rail. The old timer looks ready to run a peak race. I’ll also include Sleepless Knight for Joe Bravo and Kelly Breen and Loup Breton for new trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Rajiv Maragh.

Risen Star Stakes

If you have been to this site before you know we are crazy about Rogue Romance. He is a standout in the Risen Star and a clear single for me. The pace set up looks perfect too. Look for him to mow them all down in the long Fair Grounds stretch for Runnymede Farm, Ken McPeek and Julien Leparoux. Click here to read more about the Risen Star at our sister site, Triple Crown Champ.

Pick 4: 3/1,3,4,5/1,5,8,10/1

So there you have it, our Pick 4 ticket for Risen Star day at Fair Grounds. It will cost just $8 to play for 50¢. Join our mailing list by filling in your name and email address  on the form located on the right side of the page. If you do so you will get our picks for races throughout the nation this weekend as well as a Pick 6 play from Fair Grounds. Look for the picks to go out sometime Thursday afternoon.

Who do you like in these races? I’d love to hear your thoughts. Leave a comment and we can talk about it. I’m also on twitter @gradedstakes.


Kentucky Cup Recap

I had a wonderful time at Turfway Park this Saturday watching the Kentucky Cup races. The only way it could’ve been better is if Garrett Gomez hadn’t won all three races, causing the horse I bet to run second in each of his wins. That is racing though; I should’ve realized Gomez wasn’t going to waste a Saturday if those horses weren’t live. Perhaps his best ride of the day came in the Kentucky Cup Classic. He had to shake up the reigns and get at Furthest Land, but was able to get the victory over Dubious Miss. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will see anyone from Turfway at the Breeders Cup later this year.

I wrote several hundred words about the Kentucky Cup Classic on my new blog located at http://www.ntra.com/blog.aspx?blogid=32. I will be blogging there about things pertaining to the Breeders Cup Classic from now until the race takes place. My top pick was the heavy favorite Hold Me Back, but I also gave a big look to runner up Dubious Miss and also ran Your Round. I believe that Hold Me Back and Your Round were victims of the track bias. It has been very to close at Turfway of late. I was surprised that the trifecta and superfecta payouts were so low with 4-5 Hold Me Back out of the money.

I was fortunate enough to meet David Schneck of the Kentucky Thoroughbred Assocation while I was enjoying the races. The KTA was running a program in conjunction with Turfway Park to give scholarships away to local students. The Kentucky Thoroughbred Assocation also provided free food and drinks for college students. They also provided two large TVs so we could keep up with the college football world while betting the horses. While I didn’t win a scholarship, I’m highly appreciative of their efforts. It’s not often that an organization goes out of its way to help people while getting nothing in return.

The KTA is a trade organization dedicated to its members, according to their website located at http://www.kta-ktob.com/.They are responsible for creating a purse development fund that has offered over $134 in purses since 1995. They do excellent work to represent the industry and to improve the sport. To learn more about them, click here. I’m hopeful that they will continue to thrive, and I salute them for all the good work that they do!