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2012 Florida Sunshine Millions Classic Preview

January 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Mucho Macho Man

Mucho Macho Man

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Last year we saw Tackleberry spring a 27-1 upset in the Sunshine Millions Classic. This year, with a short field of just seven competitors, we aren’t likely to see a bomb of that magnitude. That doesn’t mean value has vanished though.

Duke of Mischief (Graeme Hall x My Lady Amelia by Real Courage) has spotty recent form, but he’s got the best back class in the race. One of the best handicap horses of 2011, he won the $1 million Charles Town Classic over a very salty group in April. He’s had a rough time since then, but the work tab indicates he’s ready to fire a big shot. Specifically, I really like the :48 B 1/75 four furlong move at Calder. Don’t count the David Fawkes horse out. Joe Bravo will ride.

Adios Charlie (Indian Charlie x Teak Totem by Northern Afleet) should catch plenty of action and I’m glad for that; he’s a play against. This colt wants no part of nine furlongs against a horse like Duke of Mischief  or Mucho Macho Man. The average winning distance of his sire and broodmare sire is 6.6 furlongs. He will be over bet and should be avoided until he turns back to a one turn mile.

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Todd Pletcher’s Turbo Compressor (Halo’s Image x Dixieland Event by Wild Event) will be ridden by his main man, John Velazquez. He drew away by 10 ½ lengths last out in a $150k Florida-bred race. He did so after making an easy lead. That wont happen in this race and it severely decreases his chances. Toss him at a short price.

Kathy Ritvo’s Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno x Ponche de Leona by Ponche) is an interesting horse. He scorched a decent group quite easily last out at Aqueduct all the way back at the beginning of November. I’m not quite sure he wants to go this far, but I like his chances of doing so more than Adios Charlie. He’s the main threat to my choice.

Ron The Greek (Full Mandate x Flambe’ by Fortunate Prospect) should have his fair share of support after winning back to back overnight stakes for Bill Mott. He has changed his running style and is now closer to the pace early on. I’m not sure that he beat much in his last two races and this is a big step up in class. I can’t like him in this spot.

My top pick to win the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic is Duke of Mischief. He’s the classiest horse in the race and if the works are any indication, he is ready for a big time run. Mucho Macho man also deserves consideration based on the strength of his last race.

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Silver Medallion the pick to win Fort Lauderdale stakes

January 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Flat Out

Flat Out

The graded stakes action is limited early on in the year. However, Gulfstream Park has provided us with a competitive and interesting race in the form of the Grade 3 Fort Lauderdale Stakes.

The 8 ½ furlong turf event is a relatively new race, but is already proving its importance. Last year’s winner, Little Mike, went on to win two more Grade 3 races before being laid up with a minor injury. He is considered a top turf miler for 2012.

Two years ago we saw Duke of Mischief splash home in the race as it was taken off the turf. After that win he took the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and later on the Grade 3 $1 million Charles Town Classic against one of the deepest fields of 2011.

Yummy With Butter has been prepared perfectly for the Fort Lauderdale Stakes. His last trip to the track was a six furlong allowance at Tampa Bay Downs against a stellar field. He came flying in the stretch to finish fourth beaten 3 ¼ lengths. Not bad, for a turf router that had not raced in two months. The eight-year-old gelding should be much sharper this time around. Paco Lopez will return to the irons. The duo teamed up to win a pair of Grade 3 races at Monmouth last year.

Juddmonte Farm’s son of Cacique, Mutual Trust, will get plenty of action. Winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat last July, he is now in the barn of Bill Mott. Likely the winner of the 2011 Eclipse Award of Outstanding Trainer, Mott is off to a slow start at Gulfstream. Mott is 8% with horses making their first start in his barn and 0 for 11 with horses shipping from another country. While a fast horse, Mutual Trust figures to be an underlay. Jose Lezcano gets the call.

The dual Grade 1 winner Teaks North could fly under the radar after a bad loss in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He is a perfect one for one over this turf course with a win in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. He will be within striking distance the entire way under new jockey Juan Leyva. If he brings his “A” game this race will be his.

Flat Out is going to try the weeds for the first time here. The son of Flatter isn’t particularly well bred for grass, but the connections say he is working well over the surface. Trainer Charles Dickey is off to a fast start and jockey Alex Solis can ride with the best of them on the Gulfstream turf course. Even still, I have to pass. He’s going to catch too much money and I can’t take an unproven turf horse in a race this deep.

My selection for the Grade 3 Fort Lauderdale Stakes is Silver Medallion. I love the way he powered home in the lane last out to win the Grade 3 Tropical Turf Handicap at Calder. It was a visually impressive race. I love his running style, near the pace, and I have a feeling we haven’t seen his best stuff yet. Todd Pletcher is bringing out the best in him. Javier Castellano will pilot the son of Badge of Silver.

Other key contenders include Uptowncharlybrown, Santiva, Hollinger, Hoofit and Kindergarten Kid.

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2011 Whitney Invitational Handicap Preview

August 4, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Whitney Handicap is the premier race of the Saratoga meeting for older horses. The 1 ⅛ miles race is a grueling test which includes the likes of Alydar, Personal Ensign, Easy Goer, Awesome Again, Lemon Drop Kid, Invasor and Lawyer Ron among its winners.

Last year we nailed Blame ($8.80) as our top selection on the way to a $2,564 Pick 4. We also had Commentator ($10.80) as our top selection and play of the day when he won in 2008.

The 2011 edition of the Whitney looks very strong and could provide a lucrative payoff if you back the right racehorse. Let’s take a look at the field.

Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil by Cresta Rider): We had this tough runner as our top pick in each of his last two races. The first of those events was the Stephen Foster Handicap where he tried to make a move up the rail, but failed to close effectively at odds of 18-1. After that we backed him again in the Suburban. It turned out to be the right move as he romped home at odds of nearly 14-1. Alex Solis was aboard for the first time that day and elects to stay aboard even though he had options here. Now that everyone else is ready to jump on the train I am ready to hop off. While I like the horse he was a much more appealing prospect at double digit odds. He gets the rail today and has never won going two turns. I’ll pass at 4-1, but recognize that he could win this race.

Friend or Foe (Friends Lake x Unbridled Star by Unbridled) I’m bullish on this colt in the long term, but I don’t like that he has just won race this year. Even though it was a good race in which he defeated Rail Trip by a head, I wish he had a bit more seasoning. On the bright side he proved how talented he is by winning the Empire Classic Handicap by five lengths in his penultimate race last year. I’m confident that he will score a break through win soon, but I don’t know if it will be in the Whitney at 8-1. Jose Lezcano picks up the mount from Alex Solis.

Morning Line (Tiznow x Indian Snow by AP Indy) The Nick Zito trainee scored his best lifetime win over this distance when he won the Pennsylvania Derby last year. Since then he has become a Grade 1 winner by taking the Carter Handicap and was involved in a very close finish in the Breeders Cups Dirt Mile. I’m willing to excuse his last out effort in the Salvator Mile where he ended up fifth. Regular jockey John Velazquez was gone that day and the first three finishers came back to run well with Soaring Empire winning, Kensei finishing behind him and Rule taking a minor stakes race at Saratoga. Things could get heated up front so I expect Johnny V to try and get him to relax behind a few horses. He is as good as any horse in this race and deserves consideration at odds of 10-1.

Giant Oak (Giant’s Causeway x Crafty Oak by Crafty Prospector) The first thing I notice when I look at this horse is the shiny :58 4/5 five furlong breezing bullet he fired over the Saratoga track on July 31. The Donn Handicap winner is clearly getting better as he gets older. His last two races have seen him make two furious charges down the lane only to come up short. The pace wasn’t particularly hot in either of those races, but it could be torrid in this one. That means he will have a big shot at winning. The only bad thing I can see for him is that he will have Shaun Bridgmahon riding. Nothing against the guy, but he is ice cold right now. It is very clear to me that this is a horse that is doing well and thriving at Saratoga and if not for this being a highly contentious field he might be my pick.

Tizway (Tiznow x Bethany by Dajyur) We had this great colt as our top selection in the Metropolitan Mile last out where he cruised to an easy win smashing the clock in 1:32 4/5 at odds of 4-1. Many will be hot to bet him after such an amazing performance, but I will encourage caution before doing so. First, we must consider that that win came over what is clearly his favorite track. Tizway has dominated at Belmont Park with a win in the Kelso and third place finishes in the 2009 Jockey Club Gold Cup and 2010 Met Mile. Furthermore, this colt has proven that his optimal distance is one mile. I’m not saying Tizway can’t or wont win, but the price will not be generous enough as I expect him to be bet well below his morning line odds of 6-1. Rajiv Maragh gets the call to ride.

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Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) The Todd Pletcher trainee raced near a very soft pace last out in the Stephen Foster Handicap and just missed holding on while finishing second beaten a neck to upset winner Pool Play. His last win came at Fair Grounds in the New Orleans Handicap where he beat Apart and Giant Oak. His record at the distance is incredible with 2 wins from 3 starts. I know it’s only 2 wins, but when you consider that those wins were the aforementioned New Orleans Handicap and Louisiana Derby that record sounds much better. In the end he rates  below my top few horses in here, but would be no surprise for top notch connections. JJ Castellano rides back after boarding him for the first time last out.

Rail Trip (Jump Start x Sweet Trip by Carson City) It’s been a long road to redemption for the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup winner, but it appears he is back in top form for Jay Em Ess Stable and trainer Richard Dutrow. His first race in over six months came on June 5 in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont Park where he set a very rapid pace and was only narrowly defeated by Friend Or Foe. Clearly that is a strong race for a gelding that hadn’t been out in so long. Rail Trip races best near the front and I will look for Ramon Dominguez to put him on the lead. If he is fit enough he could take them all the way at a juicy price of 12-1.

Headache (Tapit x Pamric by Woodman) As horse bettors it is our job to look for the horses that are getting better and capitalize at a big price. We picked Headache to win the Cornhusker Handicap last out and he came through at odds of 9/2. That was a big effort as Miguel Mena angled him outside and he roared past Grade 1 winner Awesome Gem for a 2 ½ length victory. Trainer Mike Maker is no spring chicken and if you don’t know who he is then you should check him out on Google ASAP. The closer will get a big pace to chase and it looks like he is in great form right now. I highly encourage including him on Pick 4 tickets at odds of 20-1. He would come as no surprise if he were to win the Whitney. Ken and Sarah Ramsey might have a big time runner in this former claimer.

Rodman (Malibu Moon x Crystal Gem) It seems like we have hit every horse in this race at some point and Rodman is no exception. He was our big price horse in the Met Mile as we nailed the $378 exacta cold with Rodman second at huge odds of 36-1. He had no business being such a big price in there as the horse has proven he can run with the best of ‘em by easily winning the Irish Tower in his previous start. Rodman was a distant third in the Suburban last out where JJ Castellano put him on the lead and he set fast fractions. While this guy can be effective on the front he is clearly better when closing. His second place finish in the Met happened with him rallying from as far back as ninth. I’m a little worried this isn’t his best distance, but with a perfect 2 for 2 record at Saratoga and a boat load of talent this isn’t a horse you want to leave off your Pick 4 ticket. Edgar Prado gets the mount back for the first time since 2009. I’ll make him the top pick at 20-1.

Apart (Flatter x Detach by Unbridled) Last year’s Super Derby winner comes to Saratoga in search of his first Grade 1 win after finishing third in the Stephen Foster last out. He races for Al Stall and will have Julien Leparoux up for the second time. The closer will get a very fast pace to chase in here, but I’m just not sold that he is good enough to even hit the board in this race. I’m going to pass odds of 6-1 which I consider to be a huge underlay.

Duke Of Mischief (Graeme Hall x My Lady Amelia by Real Courage) He defeated one of the deepest field of handicap horses we have seen in a very long time two back in the Charles Town Classic. On his best day this horse can win this, but he is sort of like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. You never know which one you will get. He closed well last out in the Stephen Foster even after having a very slow pace in front of him and even led at one point before ending up fourth. He has a sharp four furlong work in :46 4/6 B over the track which rated first of 95 moves. I’m bullish at 8-1 and look for him to be finishing very well under Joe Bravo.

In summation my top selection to win the Whitney Invitational Handicap from Saratoga is Rodman (20-1). I love that he is a perfect 2 for 2 at Saratoga and he should race from off the pace with Edgar Prado back up. He showed us in the Metropolitan Mile that he is still a highly talented individual and over looking him at such a big price is a huge mistake. Horses to include on the Pick 4 other than my top selection are Giant Oak, Headache and Duke of Mischief. If you feel like going very deep I would also throw in Morning Line and Rail Trip.

To get our full card picks for all of the horse racing action at Saratoga check out our Saratoga Picks page.

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2011 Stephen Foster Handicap Preview

June 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Stephen Foster Handicap is the most prestigious race at Churchill Downs after the Kentucky Derby. Last year’s winner, Blame, went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic. We had him as our top pick that day. Let’s see if we can get the winner again this year.

Flat Out (30-1) He ran huge to be second in the LoneStar Park Handicap last out in his first start since December and second start since April of 2009. The son of Flatter is obviously training well and he still has the talent that allowed him to win the Smarty Jones Stakes as a three-year-old. If he goes off anywhere near 30-1 I’ll have at least a few bucks on him and I will use him on my Pick 4 ticket.

Crown of Thorns (4-1) Surprised most people by defeating Sidney’s Candy last out in the Mervyn Leroy Handicap. The son of Repent can go all day as proved by a second place finish in the Goodwood Stakes and a win in the Robert Lewis as a three-year-old. His current form is sharp, but I have doubts about his ability to race on true dirt. He is a pass for me.

Apart (5-1) Another son of Flatter here. He won the William Schaefer Memorial last out over Colizeo. He looks a cut below the best horses in here, but a switch to jockey Julien Leparoux could help him make up the difference.

Worldy (30-1) Took down the highly regarded Bind last out in his first race since last October. The son of AP Indy has never gone 9 furlongs, but his pedigree says he will love it. His best career race came at Churchill Downs when he was second by a neck in the Northern Dancer Stakes so we know he loves the place. It would take a career effort to win, but I can see him getting a piece at a hueg price.

El Caballo (15-1) I don’t see anything that makes me think the seven-year-old would be competitive here. I’ll pass on him.

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Regal Ransom (6-1) I thought he was all washed up, but his last two efforts clearly proved me wrong. He really brough his “A” game last out in the Alysheba where he ended up second by a nose. The extremely versatile son of Distorted Humor has learned to effectively rate and that could make all the difference here. He will be making his third start of the year which is almost always a peak effort. Alan Garcia is going to be sitting on a ton of horse turning for home.

Equestrio (12-1) Many doubted if he fit with this group last out, but he proved everyone wrong by finishing a strong third in the Alysheba beaten only a head. Before that he took down Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In. When I think of his sire Elusive Quality I don’t think of 9 furlong horses, but he already owns a win at the distance. The works are strong and Nick Zito is willing to take a shot. Anytime Zito is willing to try we should be willing to give his horse a chance.

Pool Play (20-1)  Trainer Mark Casse is 20% winners moving horses from turf to dirt and this horse will make his first start over a dirt surface. His works have been stellar, but the competition here is fierce. Considering including him fourth on superfecta tickets, but more than that would be a surprise.

Duke of Mischief (6-1) My instincts tell me this horse won’t get much respect at the windows and he really should. He took down one of the best group of older horses in a race that wasn’t a Breeders Cup event in many years last out. The son of Graeme Hall is bred to go the distance and he owns 3 wins going 9 furlongs. Jockey Joe Bravo has ridden him in his last two races and they fit each other well. He is without a doubt a very strong win contender.

Giant Oak (7/2) He came running to make it interesting in the Alysheba last out, but ended up fifth beaten 3/4 of a length. The son of Giant’s Causeway beat a top notch field in the Clark Handicap last fall which is over this same trip. If things get hot up front he will be the primary beneficiary.

Mission Impazible (9/2) JJ Castellano gets the mount on this colt who has a perfect name for what he is trying to do today. Well it’s not quite impossible, but breaking all the way to outside doesn’t help his chances. Last out in the Alysheba Garrett Gomez tried to relax him off the pace and this appears to be a horse that wants to be on the lead or at least very, very close to it. Look for JJ to get him involved from the start and take them as far as he can.

I’m going to swing for the fences here and make Flat Out my top selection to win the Stephen Foster Handicap. His morning line price of 30-1 is just way too good to pass up. His 99 Beyer Speed Figure last out was incredible considering how long he had been off and if he improves just a little that puts him with the best horses in this race. Other selections for the card at Churchill Downs are available on our Free Horse Racing Picks page.

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$1 Million Charles Town Classic Preview

April 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Charles Town is really making moves to get top horses to their track. What better way to do that then to card a $1 million handicap race for older horses? The Charles Town Classic at the distance of 9 furlongs over the bull ring track is worth a whopping $1 million. A field of ten of the best older horses will try and take down the lions share of that $1 million. Let’s take a look at the field and try and pick a winner. Before we do that I would like to note that two time defending winner Researcher is on the AE list. This is absolutely unfair and I hope the track reconsiders their drawing methods into the future.

#1 No Advantage- Don’t let that Grade 2 win at Laurel two races back fool you. It was a very weak field. He is very unlikely to get the distance and I will not use him.

#2 Tackleberry- He just doesn’t seem to lose. His latest wins in the Sunshine Millions Classic, Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship and Gulfstream Park Handicap proved that he is a very serious graded stakes contender. I’m a bit concerned about how he will do away from Gulfstream though. I’ll give him a big shot anyway. Look for him to be on the lead until he can’t hold them off any longer or hits the wire first.

#3 Tizway-  His ideal distance is a mile, but I don’t see any reason why he cant go an extra furlong here. Last year he won the Kelso Handicap by 5 and was only a neck behind Tackleberry in third last out in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. Look for him just off the pace. The son of Tiznow has as good a shot as anyone in this race to win.

#4 Acclamation- I wonder if he can take to the dirt surface because all of his best races have  been on turf. He won two graded races last year including the Grade 1 Charlie Whittingham Memorial. Look for him to be near the front under hot shot young jockey Christian Santiago-Reyes.

#5 Rule- He isn’t at his best going long. Not only that, but I think he is headed the wrong direction. On the bright side he had success over the bull ring track at Delta Downs where he won the Delta Jackpot in 2009.

#6 Inherit The Gold- The NY bred has won 5 in a row including the Grade 3 Excelsior last out. Switching to two turn races has really done the trick for him. The son of Gold Token is back on two weeks rest, but that shouldn’t bother him. Word has it he is kicking the barn down and is ready to roll. Expect him to be mid pack under jockey Eddie Castro. I’m making him my top pick to win.

#7 Gone Astray- Nice colt, but he is a cut below the best in here in terms of class. Not only that, but he hasn’t raced since November. I can’t endorse him.

#8 Duke of Mischief- This colt could really be any kind. On his best day he can win this without a problem, but he only runs huge races once in a while. I would be a little afraid to leave him off my tickets.

#9 Awesome Gem- Was second in this race last year and ended up winning the Hollywood Gold Cup two starts later. Since then he has regressed and I have to think the eight-year-old gelding might finally be showing some wear. He would have to do a complete 180 from his last race where he was third in allowance company.

#10 Game On Dude- He is favored here and for good reason. The son of Awesome Again was last seen winning the Santa Anita Handicap in which he survived a lengthy inquiry by the stewards. Bull ring champion rider David Flores gets the mount and that will really help him out. Will be no shock if he runs strong here.

So there you have it. My top selection to win the Charles Town Classic is Inherit The Gold. After him I like Tizway, Game On Dude and Tackleberry in that order. Who do you like?

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Quality Road looks poised to capture his second Grade 1 victory in the Donn Handicap

February 4, 2010 By Leave a Comment

I love Quality Road. I’ve followed this colt very closely since he won the Fountain of Youth last year. He was my Kentucky Derby pick until he was hurt, and I also picked him to win the Breeders Cup Classic. Unfortunately, he didn’t get to race in the Classic and was scratched at the gate. Since that little hiccup in his career he has won the Hal’s Hope Handicap and looks poised to annex the Donn Handicap this weekend. If he continues at this rate he will certainly have a chance to avenge his scratch in the Breeders Cup with another try this year. Let’s take a look at some of his competition this Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Past The Point has seen a resurgance in form lately and looks to be the best opponent for Quality Road. The son of Indian Charlie has nice early speed. He nearly slayed the giant we know as Curlin in the 2008 Woodward. His last race was a second place finish behind top sprinter Custom For Carlos in the Grade 3 Mr Prospector. Edgar Prado will have the mount for the third time in a row, and after perusing through the PPs it seems that this horse responds best to Prado. It will take a monumental effort to bring Quality Road to his knees, but Past The Point is the most likely candidate.

Duke of Mischief will also give it a shot. The David Fawkes trainee ran a huge figure last out when he took the closed into very slow fractions to take the Grade 3 Fort Lauterdale. He ran strongly last year when he took the Iowa Derby, but ran into the buzzsaw known as Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Stakes where he was defeated by 18 lengths. His form has improved this year, but it will take a career effort to win this race.

Other entries include Kiss The Kid, Dry Martini, You And I Forever, Helsinki, and Mambo Meister. Who do you like in the Donn Handicap? Check out the Buy Picks page on the red toolbar if you are interested in my picks and plays for this race along with several others for this weekend!

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SunShine Millions, Santa Monica, and Forward Gal Selections

January 29, 2010 By Leave a Comment

I’ve updated the “Free Horse Racing Picks” page with my selections for this weekend. I’ve picked several SSM races along with the Santa Monica and Forward Gal. I plan on adding other races tomorrow. Most of the races this weekend are very tough. I don’t feel very strong about any particular pick, but if I had to pick one it would be Compari in the Sunshine Millions Classic. He is a win machine and has proved he can handle the distance. Garrett Gomez will be in the irons and the colt will offer good value because of the presence of The Usual Q.T. who will be entering this race after a lengthy win streak on the turf.

The Usual Q.T. looks like a logical pick and probably should win the race. However, he will be a short price and Compari could be comprable in talent. I don’t think we really know how good he is yet. This will certainly be the acid test. He is in good hands with Gomez and I’m willing to roll the dice at a decent price.

I really like She Be Wild and I had her when she won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, but I feel she is very vulnerable in the Forward Gal Stakes. I expect her to be heavily bet. She could bounce in her first race on traditional dirt. The filly must also contend with a layoff. I’ll look to Sister Resistor in that race. She has a nice closing kick and should be a good price with Kent Desormeaux in the irons.

In the SSM Turf I went with Duke of Mischief. I like the number at 8-1. He closed very well when he won last out despite dreadfully slow fractions. He looked very good heading into last years Haskell, but hasn’t really panned out since then. I believe the talent is still there and he will show us how good he really is in this event.

The Santa Monica is arguably the deepest and toughest race of the weekend. There are so many good fillies and mares in the race and any number of them could win. I took distance specialist Evita Argentina who won last out in the La Brea at just over 4-1. She has a great closing move, but I fear there may not be enough speed for her. I’m going to cross my fingers and hope a speed due develops.

Who do you like this weekend?

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