February 8, 2012

Posts Comments

You are here: Home / Archives for florida derby

Dialed In’s riveting last to first move in Florida Derby has me believing

April 6, 2011 By 1 Comment

Dialed In did what I predicted he would when he rallied from last place to take the Florida Derby on Sunday. The son of Mineshaft covered the 9 furlongs distance in 1:50.07 and beat second place finisher Shackleford by a head.

The win was vindicating as he suffered his first defeat in his previous race which was against older horses in optional claiming company. Click here to see the chart for the win. The victory was very impressive and allowed him to hold his spot at #2 in our Kentucky Derby Contender rankings.

After the win Dialed In dropped to odds of 5-1 in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager. This made him the solid second choice behind 3-1 favorite Uncle Mo. The trainer of that horse, Todd Pletcher, was not impressed by Dailed In’s victory. He cited a faster time by his filly, R Heat Lightning, going the same trip the previous day.

I don’t believe that is a fair judgment of Dialed In. Times are nearly meaningless in my eyes and I would much rather focus on the fact that he rallied from far back on one of the most speed favoring tracks in the country. Not only that, but he did it against the deepest field of three-year-olds assembled thus far in 2011.

We must remember that this colt was making just his fourth career start. The potential for growth is nearly limitless. The fact that he is lightly raced is both good and bad. Good for the aforementioned reason, but bad because the time he has to realize that potential grows smaller by the day.

I’ve got no doubt that reaching the apex of his talent before the Kentucky Derby is possible. After all, this is a horse that missed the break, blew the first turn, rallied greenly down the lane and STILL won at first asking against a full field at Churchill Downs. The fact that he could overcome all that trouble going 6.5 furlongs really says something about how magnificent this colt truly is. Let’s not forget he also came back from that win to take the Holy Bull from 15 lengths off the pace!

This colt is in great hands with trainer Nick Zito, a two time Kentucky Derby winning trainer (Strike The Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994). Jockey Julien Leparoux hasn’t taken the Roses yet in his young career, but I count him among the most capable in the country. He does especially well with late running types like Dialed In. Zito nearly won the Kentucky Derby with last year’s Florida Derby winner, Ice Box. That horse wasn’t half the horse that Dialed In is at this point. Nick Zito was a bundle of emotions after his colt’s win and he told the media that is a very special horse. Thanks Mr. Zito, I had no idea by watching him on the track.

Late running colts do very well in the Kentucky Derby and Dialed In may be prove himself to be king of the closers on the First Saturday in May.

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

2011 Florida Derby Preview

April 1, 2011 By 7 Comments

The Florida Derby is perhaps the best prep race available for the Kentucky Derby. The purse is fat at $1,000,000, the distance is perfect at 9 furlongs and the 5 weeks away from the Run for the Roses is excellent timing. The last winner in the Kentucky Derby that the Florida Derby produced was Big Brown. Before that it was the awe inspiring Barbaro. Ice Box, winner of the 2010 Florida Derby, nearly took the Roses, but finished second after a horrid trip. His trainer, Nick Zito, is back for another shot.

Zito is going for a second win in a row here with Dialed In. The colt is ranked #2 on our Kentucky Derby Contenders list. Robert Lapenta owns both Ice Box and Dialed In. The latter was last seen finishing second against older horses in optional claiming company. That was his first loss in three tries. The trip in that race wasn’t the best and I’m not going to let it influence my opinion of him. Dialed In is without a doubt one of the best three-year-olds out there.

Julien Leparoux is the pilot for Dialed In. I love the Frenchman’s style and expect him to work out the perfect trip for the son of Mineshaft. Dialed In has been working very strongly and has produced two bullets (:59 4/5 B 1/13 and :47 2/5 B 1/19) at Palm Meadows since his last race. We can be sure that the connections are bringing everything here to try and win this race. If he does so he will lock up a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby.

The raw talent I saw when Dialed In won the Holy Bull was like nothing I’ve ever seen before. He was so green and so far back that I thought he had no chance. He proved me wrong by blowing the doors off his competition late in the race. What is going to happen when this guy learns how to be a racehorse? If he puts together his best race here none of his foes stand a chance. I’ll make him my top selection at 2-1.

Although I like Dialed In a lot here, that doesn’t mean he is a cinch. Bill Mott’s colt To Honor And Serve looks primed for a strong effort after fading to be a well beaten third in the Fountain of Youth behind today’s favorite, Soldat. Before that race he was the victor in the Remsen Stakes at this distance. He is a big and strong colt that should get better with time. Look for his pedigree as a son of Bernardini to shine in the races with more distance. Garrett Gomez will get the mount from John Velazquez because the connections are worried about the latter’s availability in the Kentucky Derby. I really feel like To Honor And Serve is ready to run a top race and his morning line price of 4-1 is very enticing. Don’t leave him out.

The Repole Stable owned and Todd Pletcher trained Stay Thristy is the Rocky Balboa of the race. That is to say he has got a big chance here, but certainly isn’t one of the top picks. “Thirsty” as fans like to call him was last seen winning the Gotham Stakes. He raced wide there before bursting clear to a 3 1/4 length win as the 4-5 favorite. I like that effort given he hadn’t raced since the Breeders Cup Juvenile and his trip was less than desirable. Todd Pletcher opts to throw the blinkers on here and that will be a good move as it should give him more focus. Ramon Dominguez stays on and you know he isn’t giving up a days worth of mounts at Aqueduct to mess around. Stay Thirsty has a chance here at 8-1. He has to be included on deeper tickets.

Flashpoint looks like the pacesetter at 6-1 after winning the Hutcheson by 7 1/4 lengths over Travelin Man. That win was impressive, but I’m skeptical about his chances here. This is his first try around two turns and I don’t think the field he beat last out was very good. He is working well and Richard Dutrow has won this race before. I don’t like him to perform well here, but his presence is important nonetheless as he will ensure a fast pace.

Right behind that fast pace will be 9-5 favorite Soldat. Ranked at #4 on the Kentucky Derby Contenders list, Soldat has a big shot here. However, I think he is worth taking a swing against at such a prohibitive price. We have to remember that he has already locked up his spot in the Kentucky Derby. This means jockey Alan Garcia isn’t going to try overly hard with him to win here if it turns out that Soldat ends up in a dog fight or simply needs a little pushing. Remember, the goal for the connections of theses horses is to have their horses peak in their NEXT race. Winning the Kentucky Derby is goal #1 for Soldat. The Florida Derby would be a nice feather in the cap, but it is merely secondary at this point.

So to review I like Dialed In as my top selection to win the 2011 Florida Derby with a big look to To Honor And Serve. Stay Thirsty is a live long shot. Who do you like? Leave a comment and be heard!

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Dialed In A-Ok in second place

March 8, 2011 By 4 Comments

Dialed In finished second against older horses in an optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on Sunday. The Nick Zito trainee sat behind a slow  pace under jockey Julien Leparoux and did not have enough juice to blast past the competition in his second start of the year and third start overall. The three-year-old colt’s stablemate, Equestrio, won the race after veering out badly near the wire.

I said on Twitter that this spot made no sense for the son of Mineshaft. Why try this race when taking on Uncle Mo in the Timely Writer or Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby was available? The colt will have to face them sooner or later if wearing the Roses is his goal.

In the end, this race does nothing to diminish my opinion of the Robert LaPenta owned colt. We have to remember it was only his THIRD race. Not only that, but he had every right to bounce off a big effort in the Holy Bull Stakes. The pace of the race was dawdling and Dialed In had never gone two turns before, let alone 9 furlongs. Winning an allowance in March means nothing when the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby loom large on the calender.

He is still a big and powerful colt that will get better with time. I was not a fan at 8-1 in the first Kentucky Derby future pool, but if everyone gets down on him as it appears they are I will jump all over him at a bigger number. This loss does not bother me at all.

What do you think?

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping, Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , ,

Soldat emerges from Fountain of Youth win as early Florida Derby favorite

February 27, 2011 By 9 Comments

Can Soldat run well on a fast dirt track? I said he could and made him my top pick to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He proved me right by drawing clear to a 2 length wire to wire victory over Gourmet Dinner. The son of War Front covered the 1 1/8 miles distance in a lukewarm time of 1:50 1/5.

This race ran exactly as I thought it would as I predicted the winner and second place finisher. Not saying much as the exacta was only $13.80 for $2. I had a great feeling To Honor And Serve wouldn’t run well. Fortunately, I was right. Unfortunately, there still wasn’t much money to be made.

I don’t know how strong of a prep the Fountain of Youth will end up being, but I do know that I am increasingly wary of races at Gulfstream Park. There were 3 wire to wire winners in 6 dirt races and 2 of the other winners were in second most of the way. It is no big secret that Gulfstream favors speed, but that is sort of ridiculous. How will Soldat fare when he gets on the Churchill Downs dirt? I don’t think it will bother him, but you never know until they try. I’m hoping the Gulfstream track isn’t making him look better than he actually is. For now the connections have to feel good as they are the early favorite to win the Florida Derby in 5 weeks.

After Soldat the other big story was Flashpoint. The son of Pomeroy scored a very easy win in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes for troubled trainer Richard Dutrow and jockey Cornelio Velasquez. He stalked Travelin Man before over taking him for a 7 1/4 length win. Travelin Man was able to stay on for second 3 lengths in front of 50-1 shot Little Drama. I’m skeptical about this race. The 1-2 finishers were exiting maiden wins. In my eyes, their performances were mostly due to the speed bias. Dutrow is already eying the Florida Derby for Flashpoint. Who can blame him? I would try too.

One of the most impressive winners of the day was R Heat Lightning in the Davona Dale. She made a move from fifth and blew away favored Dancinginherdreams. This was very surprising for me as I thought she was on the way out. On the contrary, she may just be getting started. I’ll give her extra points for running against the bias too.

Another impressive run came in the third race which was an allowance event for three-year-olds at the distance of 9 furlongs. Nacho Business was making his second start and finished second after being keen to go much of the race. He will be much improved next time. I have a feeling he could be a factor in some of the summer stakes races such as the Jim Dandy if he improves like I think he can and will.

I have added a “Top Commentators” tab on the right side of the page. Comment on this and other articles and you will see your name and link there!

 

Filed Under: Horse Racing News, Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

Ice Box pulls shocker in Florida Derby

March 21, 2010 By 2 Comments

I had a good feeling it was going to be bombs away in the Florida Derby. I told those who purchased my selections that. My top pick, Pleasant Prince, narrowly missed at odds of 29-1. He nearly gave me a heart attack, because I thought I was in the clear during the late stages of the race.

It wasn’t to be. Pleasant Prince was edged out by Nick Zito trainee Ice Box. Both finished behind Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth last out. The winner was sent off at odds of 20-1. Pleasant Prince returned $26.40 to place and $11.60, so those that played him across on the board on my advisement did very well. I still wish he had won though!

The pace of the race set up well for both horses who closed from well back. It appeared for a brief moment that the favored Rule would kick for home with ease, but he was all out despite having looked otherwise. He ended up third. The Todd Pletcher trainee put in a good race considering the pace scenario. I wouldn’t hesitate to give him a look in the Kentucky Derby. Lentenor, best known for being the full brother of Barbaro, was fourth. He ran well in his first try on dirt, but probably isn’t Kentucky Derby material.

The under card was interesting. Devil May Care validated her win in the Frizette at 2 by running huge to take the Bonnie Miss. She was quite green, but couldn’t have won any easier than she did. Christine Daae and Amen Hallelujah ran clunkers even though they both caught plenty of action. D’ Funnybone posted an easy win the Swale. The connections say he won’t target the Kentucky Derby, but are considering the Preakness.

What did you think of Saturday’s races? Let me know by leaving a comment below!

Filed Under: Horse Racing News Tagged With: , , , , , ,