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2011 Donn Handicap Preview

February 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Good horse betting races have been sparse this year, but it looks like we have a great one lined up for Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the form of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. Last years edition of the 39 year old race was taken by Quality Road. The then four-year-old colt smashed the competition by over 10 lengths! Notable winners of the Donn include Forego, Foolish Pleasure, Pistols and Roses, Cigar, Skip Away, Medaglia d’Oro, Saint Liam and last but not least, Invasor. Let’s take a look at this years field!

#1 I Want Revenge – It seems like an eternity has passed since this son of Stephen Got Even crushed the field to take the Gotham Stakes and then overcome big time trouble to win the Wood Memorial. After taking the Wood he missed significant time due to injury. His next race came over a year later in the Suburban Handicap where he was third beaten four lengths by the front running Haynesfield. After that he was also third in the Iselin at Monmouth. Ramon Dominguez will ride for the first time. It should be interesting to see how much speed he shows. Ultimately, this is a tough field and he is entering off a long rest so that makes him an outsider. On his best day he is the best horse in this race though!

#2  Hear Ye Hear Ye – He hasn’t got a prayer of winning. Maybe he could run fourth by some fluke, but I doubt it.

#3 Morning Line – Zabeel Racing now co-owns this son of Tiznow with Thoroughbred Legends. The $700k auction purchase (separate from Zabeel) won the Pennsylvania Derby last year before running second by a head in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He was last seen finishing third in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hopes after setting the pace. He will be on the lead, but could catch pressure from Hear Ye Hear Ye, I Want Revenge, Square Eddie and Rule.  I don’t envision that being a problem. However, I do see the distance troubling him. Even though he won the Pennsylvania Derby at this distance, I just don’t think this horse is best when routing. He is a miler and will prove that in the final furlong of the race.

#4 Giant Oak – After watching the Clark Handicap, I had no idea how he ran so well. In retrospect, this is an improving horse. In his last four races he owns a win via DQ in the Clark and a second in two Grade 3 races. Still, I’m very skeptical about him. I’ve never thought he was very good and its hard to shake that thought once its planted. The pace set up will work in his favor as he will be rolling late. I won’t be surprised if the son of Giant’s Causeway checks in third or fourth.

#5 Eldaafer – The ice cold Edgar Prado picks up the mount on this gelded son of AP Indy who was last seen winning the Breeders Cup Marathon three months ago. He hasn’t seen a field this tough in his career despite winning a race that is Breeders Cup in name, but not in competition. Distance won’t be a problem, but when all is said and done this guy is probably the 6th or 7th best horse in the race. Long shot at best in my humble opinion.

#6 Fly Down – He just keeps on coming doesn’t he? The Nick Zito trainee finished third in the Breeders Cup Classic last out after just getting past fourth place finisher Lookin At Lucky. Before that race he was beaten 6 lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup by Haynesfield. He put in excellent efforts to be second by a nose in the Travers and second in the Belmont Stakes last year. He knows how to win races as he proved by taking the Dwyer by an emphatic six lengths.  Julien Leparoux will get the mount for the second time. He guided him to his third place finish in the Classic last out. Fly Down must concede at least 3 pounds to every horse in the race. He is working well, but it is advisable to take a shot against him in his first outing of the year.

#7 Square Eddie – WOW, what a run he put together in his first race since 2009 last out when he took an allowance event by 3 1/4 lengths. Study duty can wait a little longer. Trainer Doug O’Neill is excited about his chances as is jockey Corey Nakatani. I’ll take a wait and see approach. The surface he won on at Santa Anita is very hard to gauge right now. Also if he is so good why isn’t Joel Rosario here after winning on him last out? I could see Square Eddie running up the track or winning. Nothing he does will surprise me. Having said that I will pass and go with a more reliable horse.

#8 Rule - Todd Pletcher’s son of Roman Ruler rated nicely in his first try since the Florida Derby last out when jockey JJ Castellano guided him to a second place finish in the Hal’s Hope. He has excellent pedigree as his dam is half to Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. It will be interesting to see how close to the pace he is in this spot. He is working like a monster and it appears he hasn’t lost any of the talent he showed at the ages of two and three. I’d like to see him sit right behind the speed and pounce in his second try at 9 furlongs.

#9 Ron The Greek – Lezcano will get the call here on a horse who put together a nice runner up effort in optional claiming company last out. In that race he rallied from 14 lengths back to finish just 1 3/4 lengths behind stakes winning Our Dark Knight. If things get really hectic on the front end, which they could, Ron The Greek will be the prime beneficiary. The colt is classy enough to win this, but he will need help from the pace setters.

I’m going to make Rule my top selection to win the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. He showed a new dimension when he rallied from 5th last out and I think that will really work to his benefit here. I expect the jockey to lay right off the pace, go by Morning Line, and hold off the late charges from the closers. Other than Rule, I’m interested to see how I Want Revenge performs. I might take a flyer on him at a price, but he will probably need a race or two to get in gear. He might be able to find a spot in the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta. I’m really hoping he returns to top form.

Who do you like in the 39th renewal of the Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park? Leave a comment and let your voice be heard!

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Older horse division up for grabs entering 2011

January 4, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The older male division looks VERY thin in the early stages of 2011. This seems to be a recurring problem in the past few years. Last year we had Blame and Quality Road, but there were really no elite horses in the division outside of those two. The year before that really had no elite older horses. Gio Ponti was the best of the bunch, but he wasn’t what I would call an elite runner.

I am left wondering who will rise to the top of this division. Will it be Gio Ponti? I’m glad that he is still in training, but his dirt form is less than desirable. I’d be shocked if his connections didn’t keep him on the turf anyway.

The new leader of the older horse division is likely to be a four-year-old. Some of the leading candidates are Morning Line, First Dude, Rule, Apart and Fly Down. Let’s take a quick look at each horses resume.

Morning Line won the Pennsylvania Derby in just his sixth career start. He followed that effort up by finishing second in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. The son of Tiznow is out of an AP Indy mare. It looks like he improving with age just as his sire did. Nick Zito trains this colt. He is in great hands with the two time Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner. The chances of Morning Line rising to the top are as good as that of any other horse. He clearly has tons of talent and getting the classic distance will be no problem when the time comes around. Look for him to start his 2011 campaign in the Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream.

I’d like to see First Dude get an easy win in minor stakes company, but trainer Dale Romans will start his year out in the Sunshine Millions Classic. The purse is big and he very well may be the best horse when the entries are revealed. Kent Desormeaux worked the son of Stephen Got Even over the turf at Gulfstream yesterday. Romans said he wants to get him on the grass at some point this year. I have always thought the world of First Dude. He is a towering colt and he loves to go to the lead. Maybe he will get a win or two and improve even more. I expect him to race in the Breeders Cup Classic again this year.

Much was said about Rule after winning the Delta Jackpot in 2009. He ended up off the Kentucky Derby trail after running third in the Florida Derby. That was an odd race as he seemed home free only to be reeled in by Ice Box and Pleasant Prince. The son of Roman Ruler hasn’t raced since that effort. He is back in training and if he improves he could be one of the best of the older horses.

Winning the Super Derby was the highlight of Apart‘s 2010 campaign. The Al Stall trainee entered the Clark Handicap as a wise guy pick, but couldn’t deliver. He steadily improved throughout last year. A similar rout could be beneficial this year. Stall did a great job to have Blame peaking in the Breeders Cup Classic. Maybe he can guide this colt to the top as well.

Fly Down probably should have won the Belmont Stakes, but a bad trip meant he could only finish second. He also had back luck in the Travers where he was second by a nose. In the Breeders Cup Classic he finished up to be third behind Blame and Zenyatta. The newly turned four-year-old has lots of upside and potential. His closing style could cost him a win or two this year, but I expect to see him do well. I believe he has the most raw talent of any of the older horses. It’s up to Nick Zito to mold him into the top older horse of 2011.

The only horses above the age of four that I can picture having an impact on the older horse division are Successful Dan and Haynesfield. The latter has steadily improved into a Grade 1 horse and appears to be on top of his game entering the new racing year. Successful Dan has perhaps the best closing move of any of the older horses. The gelded son of Successful Appeal has only raced 8 times and has plenty of room for improvement. He won the Clark Handicap last out, but was DQ’ed for bumping another horse. He took that race over a strong field despite being rank much of the way. Haynesfield and Successful Dan are clearly the best of the horses above the age of 4.

My prediction is that First Dude will be the best older horse in the land this year. After him I like Successful Dan and Morning Line. Who do you like among the older horses? Did I leave someone out? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

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2010 Breeders Cup Classic Preview

October 21, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Some call it the biggest race in the world, or perhaps the most important. The winner is more often than not named Horse of the Year. The race is the Breeders Cup Classic, and the stakes are clearly high. I covered the race extensively for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association last year. My top pick, Quality Road, was scratched at the gate. It feels like just yesterday this race ran, but much has happened since then. Let’s examine the race!

The $5,000,000 event returns to Churchill Downs and natural dirt this year. Defending champion Zenyatta will be a definitive favorite. The undefeated mare is 19 for 19 on her career with wins in the Santa Margarita, Apple Blossom, Vanity, Clement L. Hirsch, and Lady’s Secret this year. It’s clear that she hasn’t defeated much outside of the mare St.

Trinians this year, but the same could have been said in 2009. Trainer John Sheriffs says she is as good or  better now than when she won in 2009. Jockey Mike Smith feels the same way.

Zenyatta’s closing kick is among the best in the history of thoroughbred racing, and you can bank on her mowing horses down in the stretch. She isn’t a lock though. This will be the best field she has ever faced by far. This will also be her first time running over the track. Weather can always be a factor too. Zenyatta has never competed on a wet track.

In my eyes, she will have to out kick Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky, and Foster Handicap winner  Blame. That won’t be done easily. Obviously, her chances are big, but just like in 2009, I’m not willing to concede this thing to her. That doesn’t mean I’m foolish enough to leave her off my tickets though! I’ve always been a bit of a doubter about Zenyatta, but if she can win this race I’ll finally agree that she is one of the best to ever step on the track.

The second choice in this race will be Al Stall and Claiborne Farm’s Blame. The son of Arch is a wonderful animal. I remember having dinner after  a day at Keeneland earlier this year where I chatted with his exercise rider. He said he would be Horse of the Year before Blame had even ran a race. If he is able to win this race then the exercise rider will be right.

Blame is ridden by Garrett Gomez. The journeyman jockey has ice in his veins and will make sure this guy gets an excellent ride. Blame’s closing style should do him well here. He has proved in the past he can make up ground if the pace is slow. That shouldn’t be the case here.  He’s a bit of a grinder. It looked as if he was dead in the water late in the Whitney against Quality Road, but he was able to dig deep and get past him.

Despite all the great things he has done this year, Blame lost his last race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when Haynesfield wired the field. That doesn’t bother me at all. I don’t want my horse peaking in his prep race. I believe Blame is ready to run the race of his life at Churchill Downs on November 6. That doesn’t mean he will be my top pick though. I’m going to wait for the PPs and watch the news closely before I make that  decision. However, he is definitely on the short list!

The third choice in the Breeders Cup Classic betting will be Preakness Stakes, and Haskell Invitational winner Lookin At Lucky. The three-year-old is one of the most tenacious animals alive. He just keeps on coming no matter what the circumstances are. He may not win, but Lucky is going to run his heart out trying. You can bank on that. The Martin Garcia piloted son of Smart Strike has one thing going for him that no one else does. That is Bob Baffert.

The silver haired Hall of Fame member is the best trainer in the world. To you that may be an opinion, but to me it is a fact. I’ll take Bob Baffert with a talented colt over just about anyone else in most cases. His charge can get the distance and he loves the surface. He’s also quick enough to get to the leaders before Zenyatta or Blame. If he strikes the lead, will be passed?  To the best of my knowledge, Lookin At Lucky has never been passed after  he has struck the lead. That may not matter, because many things that have never happened before happen all the time. Especially in the Breeders Cup!

My top pick from 2009, Quality Road, never got to strut his stuff as he was scratched at the gate. I probably won’t go with him again this year. I just don’t believe the son of Elusive Quality can go the 10 furlongs distance.  He is extremely classy, and if this race were a little shorter he would be very, very, tough. Who can forget his win in the Metropolitan Mile this year? It’s not out of the question for him to get a piece, but to me he likely isn’t a win candidate this time around.

Other candidates for the Breeders Cup Classic are First Dude, Fly Down, Espoir City, Haynesfield, Paddy O’ Prado, Musket Man, Crown of Thorns, Gitano Hernando, and Morning Line. The chances of a horse other than Zenyatta, Blame, Lookin at Lucky, or Quality Road winning the Classic are minute, but anything can happen as Wild Again proved in the first running of the race at huge odds.

Who do you like in the Breeders Cup Classic?

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Blame goes from hunter to hunted in Jockey Club Gold Cup

September 30, 2010 By Leave a Comment

While the race isn’t as strong as it has been in recent memory, the Jockey Club Gold Cup will be fun to watch. It is a race with serious Breeders Cup Classic implications.

The favorite is Foster Handicap, and Whitney Handicap winner Blame. The Al Stall trainee is riding a five race win streak. His most recent win came in the Whitney Handicap where he blasted past the heavily favored Quality Road who had set a dawdling pace. Regular visitors of this website know that I was on his bandwagon a very long time ago. I said in June that he would likely be my Breeders Cup Classic horse.

Despite his great form, Blame could have some trouble here. It will be his first time going 10 furlongs, and this race appears to be severely lacking in the pace department. Can he gun down lone speed going a little further? It certainly wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m not willing to just concede the race to him for those two reason.

West coast shipper and Jay Em Ess owned Rail Trip will get plenty of support at the windows. He took the Hollywood Gold Cup in 2009. That race is contested at today’s distance of 10 furlongs. This race will be the first start for the son of Jump Start in the barn of Richard Dutrow. His works are impressive, and he is handling the track well.

One of the biggest things going against him, for me, is Cornelio Velasquez. He’s off to a fast start at the Belmont meet, but he’s been pretty dreadful over the past year or two. Hopefully he can return to his winning ways of the past. Dutrow really moves horses up. He’s got Rail Trip training beautifully. This gelding has the perfect running style to win this thing.  If something happens to Haynesfield, he could probably wing it on the front end and take them all the way. Rail Trip wouldn’t shock.

I’m a big fan of Pick 4′s. They provide good value and, the payoffs are excellent. The key to cashing a nice Pick 4 is finding value. I think the value horse in this race is definitely Fly Down. The three-year-old proved he can go the distance. The son of Mineshaft finished 2nd by a dirty nose in the Travers last out. He would’ve certainly won with a cleaner trip. Pace could be a problem for this one as well, but he’s closed into slow paces in the past. I’m not wild about jockey Jose Lezcano lately, but I would be afraid not to have this guy on my ticket.

The only speed horse in the race is Haynesfield. He failed to make the lead after breaking through the gate last out in the Whitney, but you can expect to see him on the front end this time. 10 furlongs is probably out of this colt’s range. Look for him to back up big time in the stretch. He’s still a nice colt going 8 or 9 furlongs and I expect the connections to turn him back in his next race

Hold Me Back, Mythical Power, Dry Martini, and Tranquil Manner round out the field. This is a three horse race in my mind. Fly Down, Blame, and Rail Trip are those horses. Blame is clearly the best horse, but the best horse doesn’t always win. I’m going to make Rail Trip my top selections. He hasn’t raced in several months, but that doesn’t bother me. He’s going to get first run at Haynesfield, and hopefully he can kick clear. I’ll use all three on my Pick 4 ticket, and play a secondary ticket with him singled. Who do you like? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

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Fly Down & A Little Warm head contentious Jim Dandy Stakes

July 29, 2010 By Leave a Comment

“Look at Bernardini! He didn’t break a sweat, and its 90 degrees!”

The Jim Dandy Stakes is contested at 9 furlongs on the dirt for three-year-olds at Saratoga. It is a Grade 2 event and is typically used as a springboard towards the more important Grade 1 Travers Stakes the following month. Last year’s Jim Dandy was taken by Kensei. The colt was on a hot streak at the time and hasn’t done much since. Before Kensei it was Macho Again, Street Sense, and Bernardini. All three of those winners had or went on to have excellent careers. I have a feeling this years winner could be destined for bigger things too.

The race is headlined by Grade 2 Dwyer Stakes winner Fly Down. He took the Dwyer two back by a massive 6 lengths before finishing second to Drosselmeyer in the Belmont Stakes. With a better trip Fly Down could have been the victor over Drosselmeyer, as he was when he beat him in the Dwyer. Trainer Nick Zito has Fly Down working up a storm. His latest workout was a :47 1/5 four furlong move that was the fastest of 77 works. The son of Mineshaft has won two times from three starts at the Jim Dandy distance. He will be favored and for good reason. Fly Down is a fast racehorse. However, if he wants to win he will have to best a colt who finished in front of him in the Louisiana Derby.

That colt is A Little Warm. He is trained by Anthony Dutrow and will be ridden by John Velazquez. The son of Stormin Fever was given a respite after failing to gain enough earnings to compete in the Kentucky Derby. That respite ended with an allowance win at Delaware over a decent competitor in Miner’s Reserve. That win was very important because it showed that A Little Warm could relax behind the leaders in a route race. All in all the race was very solid, especially so given that he hadn’t raced since late March.  A Little Warm is a classy colt. He finished second in the Louisiana Derby and Hutcheson Stakes. He won the ungraded Spectacular Bid Stakes. The Virginia bred looks ready to run a career best race. He will have to do so if he wants to win against this competitive field!

Afleet Express comes into the Jim Dandy with a good reputation, but he won’t be one of the top two betting choices. The son of Afleet Alex took a nw2l (non-winners of two lifetime races) event two back by 7 3/4 lengths. The James Jerkens trainee earned a massive 113 BRIS figure for that effort. He validated that win by taking the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes over  Afleet Again, and Jackson Bend. He has the benefit of hot jockey JJ Castellano riding him. Despite his strong efforts it is likely that he will need to move forward yet again if he wants to come out on top here.

Bet at Twinspires!

Steinbeck will be racing for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The trainer is like the European version of Todd Pletcher. His colt will be racing on nine days rest after finishing 2nd in a Group 3 event at Leopardstown. Shipping across the pond on nine days rest means he is a total non-factor in my handicapping. I won’t include him on any tickets. He is still a nice colt, but he has too much to overcome.

Stormy’s Majesty and Friend Or Foe enter the race undefeated. Both have won three races. Friend Or Foe easily won the statebred Mike Lee Stakes last out over eventual New York Derby winner Ibboyee. That race was at seven furlongs. He will have to be something special to win this race going two turns for the first time. Stormy’s Majesty won a statebred optional claiming event last out by a whopping eight lengths going one mile. Both colts are up against it, but the have bright futures after this race.

Aikenite will race for Todd Pletcher. He made a failed try at Preakness Stakes two back before taking an allowance race. This son of Yes It’s True has plenty of talent, but he probably isn’t ready for this type of competition just yet. I’m a bit surprised that Pletcher entered him. David Cohen will retain the mount. Don’t count him out. Looks can be deceiving, but  I don’t see it happening.

Calvin Borel will return as the pilot of Miner’s Reserve for this race. The Nick Zito trainee has run two strong races prior to the Dandy. He finished second to A Little Warm after setting the pace last out. Before that he won an allowance race at Belmont Park. It will be up to Miner’s Reserve to ensure an honest pace. Can he get brave on the lead and keep going? I guess we will have to wait to find out.

The last runner I haven’t mentioned is Winslow Homer. He looked like a top Kentucky Derby contender after a strong win in the Holy Bull Stakes. Sadly, he fell off the trail because of an injury. He returned to the races with a third place finish behind Concord Point  who freaked to win the Iowa Derby by 9 lengths for trainer Bob Baffert. I think you can forgive Winslow’s Homer’s effort. He will enter this race a bit under the radar after failing to win his comeback race, but he is every bit as good as he ever was. A win from him wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Who is your top pick to win the Jim Dandy Stakes? Leave a comment and discuss! You can get my selections for the Jim Dandy, Diana, Haskell, and many other races this weekend by purchasing my selections below. Purchasers of any Saratoga package will also get picks for the Haskell Invitational!

Saratoga/Del Mar Picks

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